The Singularity

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Shirley
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Shirley »

I agree that 100% adoption is very unlikely without some strong external forces, like laws or economic interests. Brian's point about insurance is an excellent one. I hadn't thought about that, but he's right that if autonomous cars are proven to be viable, insurance prices for drivers of regular cars might skyrocket.

I'd have no problem with some people still wanting to drive, but I'd support a requirement that all vehicles have some sort of communication so other cars could know their speed, direction, etc. And then, in a few decades, I'm guessing the human drivers would be gone. I bet when cars became viable, a lot of people swore by their horses. Those people eventually died out.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by HaulCitgo »

Naps are interesting. Would completely revamp the layout of a car. Would you even need seats? Would they face forward? Could the cars be considerably wider? Kinda ceases to be a "car" anymore, more of a human transport mechanism.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by HaulCitgo »

The other thing is what to do when everyone forgets how to drive. Wont take long to have an entire population incapable of the innocuous but really rather insane duty of piloting your 1/2 ton rocket through and around various stationary and moving obstacles. If pilots cant remember how to fly planes anymore, im sure that the general populace will do a whole lot worse once they become reliant upon upon computer assistance. Even with full automation, we will still need to be able to take that wheel back under certain conditions. Maybe the long gap between some sort of highway auto-pilot and full (napping) automation will help ease us in.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

this could actually create an incentive for manufacturers to make cars much bigger again, for added comfort and amenities. Of the two biggest problems with big cars, one (fuel efficiency) is likely to be offset by other changes that make the cars more efficient on balance, while the other (maneuverability) is no longer a problem at all. So why not make the car as big as a house, or at least a trailer? Sure, there may be parking challenges for a while when every car resembles Bigfoot, but if modern American cities have proven one thing it is that they will bend over backwards to accommodate commuters' parking needs.

And people of course will want to customize that comfy ride, so we can just forget about the predictions that fewer cars will be needed. I see people adopting the technology faster than I see them adopting the idea of shared car ownership (with car shares remaining a niche market). The major manufacturers are obviously not spending millions to get involved with this technology so that they can sell a vehicle to every tenth adult.

Besides, without private car ownership, where are we going to stash our weed and our guns?
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Re: The Singularity

Post by P.D.X. »

HaulCitgo wrote:Naps are interesting. Would completely revamp the layout of a car. Would you even need seats? Would they face forward? Could the cars be considerably wider? Kinda ceases to be a "car" anymore, more of a human transport mechanism.
To have lasted as long as it has, it's a pretty poor concept. If you were starting with the problem of getting a single person from point A to point B, putting them in a 2000 lb metal box is a terrible solution. Yet here we are.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by howard »

Using an engine that consumes fuel which is incredibly cheap and dense, it ain't bad. Beats a horse and buggy.
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Re: The Singularity

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P.D.X. wrote:
HaulCitgo wrote:Naps are interesting. Would completely revamp the layout of a car. Would you even need seats? Would they face forward? Could the cars be considerably wider? Kinda ceases to be a "car" anymore, more of a human transport mechanism.
To have lasted as long as it has, it's a pretty poor concept. If you were starting with the problem of getting a single person from point A to point B, putting them in a 2000 lb metal box is a terrible solution. Yet here we are.
Actually, I think it is one of the best things people have thought of, ever.

Think of how far you can go in that 2000 pound box on two gallons of gas, i.e., an amount of gas you can easily hold in your two hands - farther than you could go in an entire day on a horse. You can get farther by train or bus, but then you can't choose exactly when you want to leave, what route to take, or whether to stop somewhere along the way.

Bikes can get you far, but they are tons slower and you can't carry much. (And they can be, ahem, dangerous.)

Except for lighter versions of internal-combustion-based transport (such as motorcycles), humans have not thought of anything close to the utility and efficiency of the car.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by P.D.X. »

I'm not bitching about the fuel here, just the size/design of the object it's powering, and the fact that our entire infrastructure has been based around it. You can't convince me that powering a 2000 lb vehicle to transport a 170 lb person makes any kind of sense. (Yes, we went all-in years ago on it, culturally and economically, but that still doesn't make it a good solution.)
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Re: The Singularity

Post by howard »

The cheapness of the fuel, materials and labor is the sense. The density of the fuel is a huge factor in the sense.

Many many alternatives have risen and fallen over the decades. I'm with steve here, and he makes with the fancy talk better than me, so what he said.

eta: more words, in a different order.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Steve of phpBB »

P.D.X. wrote:I'm not bitching about the fuel here, just the size/design of the object it's powering, and the fact that our entire infrastructure has been based around it. You can't convince me that powering a 2000 lb vehicle to transport a 170 lb person makes any kind of sense. (Yes, we went all-in years ago on it, culturally and economically, but that still doesn't make it a good solution.)
You are right about the weirdness of using a ton of metal to carry a person. But that is because sometimes you carry other people too, or their stuff. And you need the cage to protect yourself.

It's like the tooth-to-tail ratio of an army. Sometimes it's mindboggling, but so far no one's come up with a better way to do it.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by howard »

I don't mean to suggest that today's automobile is the perfect result of a completely 'logical' evolutionary process.

A better result would probably feature a much wider variety of automobile designs than we have today. Smaller cars featuring much smaller internal combustion engines; three-wheelers; bodies made of plastic and other materials.

Many anti-competitive advantages of large corporations are artificial, in that they are conferred by or protected by governments, which are unduly guided and influenced by big rich companies (unduly in a more perfect democratic country). This was true in the early part of the 20th century as it is true today.

Less monopoly power, more companies making cars, wider variety of designs.

Government interventions aside from the dictates of big business, like safety regulations that serve to dictate to a degree size and weight, are also part of the puzzle.

There are forces which have the effect of preventing innovation and variety, acting to preserve status quo of the established design. But the much larger forces which overwhelmingly favored the 'end' (as of today) result are the history of oil discovery and development, rise of the modern steel industry, colonization of places with abundant rubber sources, and the abundance of cheap labor, first domestically, ultimately abroad (and of course politics and governments influence all of these, particularly labor, but I won't go all Marx on this post.)

Nothing more importantly than the cheapness and energy density of oil. Even with the greater efficiency of electric motors, you just can't carry that much electrical energy. If/when battery technology leaps forward, or some revolution in electrical generation and transmission, then we'll see human transport units that look different.
Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.

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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

I accept that the personal car was a good idea at the time. It's also had massive and often preposterous unintended consequences that will take a long long time to unwind (with governments having a lot to do with that).
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

This guy, for instance, is not joining an autonomous car share program.

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Re: The Singularity

Post by sancarlos »

Rex wrote:This guy, for instance, is not joining an autonomous car share program.

Image
It'd be fun to watch him parallel park that baby.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by DC47 »

The wheels turn sideways on mine, so it's no problem. At least that's what the chauffeur and valets say.
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Re: The Singularity

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Re: The Singularity

Post by brian »

Pretty great review of what we've been discussing here. Ironically, I was just thinking of this thread yesterday as I was flying back from Denver and it occurred to me this future will also affect the air travel industry pretty significantly as well.

I'll briefly share my weekend travel. A 90 minute flight from Las Vegas to Denver that really isn't a 90 minute trip. To get to my ultimate destination (Boulder), I woke up in Las Vegas at 5 a.m. to get to the airport by 6 a.m. for a 7:30 a.m. flight. Flight arrives in Denver at 9 a.m. (PT). Wait 45 minutes at the airport for a roughly 1 hour shuttle to Boulder and I've gotten to my hotel around 11:30 a.m. Pacific, so about a 6 hour journey (minus the half hour waking up and getting ready which would apply regardless). Today (in 2015), I could have made the same trip in a car for half as much money in about 11 hours.

Of course, flying means I can sort of relax, but you're still packed tightly into an econobox airplane with a bunch of weird losers and wailing babies, have to deal with the bullshit of airport security, cool your heels in the airport, etc.

In a future where you can get into your car, plop into a comfortable seat, recline and read a book or even take a nap for a fraction of the price (and with AD cars of the future probably do about 90-100 mph on the highways), the idea of regional plane travel is essentially dead. At least in its current model.
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Re: The Singularity

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brian wrote:Pretty great review of what we've been discussing here. Ironically, I was just thinking of this thread yesterday as I was flying back from Denver and it occurred to me this future will also affect the air travel industry pretty significantly as well.

I'll briefly share my weekend travel. A 90 minute flight from Las Vegas to Denver that really isn't a 90 minute trip. To get to my ultimate destination (Boulder), I woke up in Las Vegas at 5 a.m. to get to the airport by 6 a.m. for a 7:30 a.m. flight. Flight arrives in Denver at 9 a.m. (PT). Wait 45 minutes at the airport for a roughly 1 hour shuttle to Boulder and I've gotten to my hotel around 11:30 a.m. Pacific, so about a 6 hour journey (minus the half hour waking up and getting ready which would apply regardless). Today (in 2015), I could have made the same trip in a car for half as much money in about 11 hours.
This is why I am driving more and more for my work trips. Since United pulled out of Cleveland two years ago, nonstop flights to my destinations are much harder to get. So when you factor in all of the time getting to the airport, checking in, flying, waiting for connection, flying connection, waiting for luggage and getting a rental car, that trip has suddenly blossomed into eight hours. I can drive pretty damn far in eight hours. Cost wise, the cost of a rental car and gas is about the same as a round-trip ticket for many of my flights, so my company doesn't really care if I fly or drive. In fact, I'm actually more productive when I drive because I can take calls, answer e-mails when I'm stopped for gas or bathroom breaks, and if there's an emergency, I can get off the highway, connect to our network via VPN and handle the issue.
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Re: The Singularity

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Sabo wrote:
brian wrote:Pretty great review of what we've been discussing here. Ironically, I was just thinking of this thread yesterday as I was flying back from Denver and it occurred to me this future will also affect the air travel industry pretty significantly as well.

I'll briefly share my weekend travel. A 90 minute flight from Las Vegas to Denver that really isn't a 90 minute trip. To get to my ultimate destination (Boulder), I woke up in Las Vegas at 5 a.m. to get to the airport by 6 a.m. for a 7:30 a.m. flight. Flight arrives in Denver at 9 a.m. (PT). Wait 45 minutes at the airport for a roughly 1 hour shuttle to Boulder and I've gotten to my hotel around 11:30 a.m. Pacific, so about a 6 hour journey (minus the half hour waking up and getting ready which would apply regardless). Today (in 2015), I could have made the same trip in a car for half as much money in about 11 hours.
This is why I am driving more and more for my work trips. Since United pulled out of Cleveland two years ago, nonstop flights to my destinations are much harder to get. So when you factor in all of the time getting to the airport, checking in, flying, waiting for connection, flying connection, waiting for luggage and getting a rental car, that trip has suddenly blossomed into eight hours. I can drive pretty damn far in eight hours. Cost wise, the cost of a rental car and gas is about the same as a round-trip ticket for many of my flights, so my company doesn't really care if I fly or drive. In fact, I'm actually more productive when I drive because I can take calls, answer e-mails when I'm stopped for gas or bathroom breaks, and if there's an emergency, I can get off the highway, connect to our network via VPN and handle the issue.
Yeah, and in my example above, the flight was non-stop and actually on time. How often does that happen? The flight home was delayed by 90 minutes. I absolutely prefer driving to flying on anything within 7 hours of here (southern California, Arizona, Reno) and would consider it for trips up to about 10-11 hours (Denver, ABQ, northern California). In a world of automated driving, that latter option becomes an absolute no-brainer.
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Re: The Singularity

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Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.

Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
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Re: The Singularity

Post by howard »

Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.

Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
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Re: The Singularity

Post by howard »

Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.

Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Moreta »

I think they should have spent more time considering branding options before beginning their crowd funding campaign. LOONcup? Really? I realize they're aiming for a lunar reference, but they missed the mark by a wide margin.
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Re: The Singularity

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Moreta wrote:I think they should have spent more time considering branding options before beginning their crowd funding campaign. LOONcup? Really? I realize they're aiming for a lunar reference, but they missed the mark by a wide margin.
Hey, if the, um, shoe fits ...
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Re: The Singularity

Post by P.D.X. »

Where's the one the texts her bf?
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Re: The Singularity

Post by The Sybian »

And I was impressed that my wife's new car sends monthly e-mails with performance statistics, and e-mails if an issue pops up. Now her uterus can harness the same technology?
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Shirley »

Tesla ain't waiting around for Google to get it done.

http://jalopnik.com/teslas-autopilot-sy ... 1736573089" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Watch that vid. It's incredible.
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Re: The Singularity

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Would be better if the dude beyond the wheel wasn't such a nancy.
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Re: The Singularity

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brian wrote:Would be better if the dude beyond the wheel wasn't such a nancy.
True, but I get his unease. It would be hard to get used to.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Shirley »

This reality is getting still closer. This dude (yes, he seems like a total douche canoe) has built an autonomous car using parts he thinks he could see for $1K. Watch the video. It's pretty impressive.

And, no, he's not some random shlub. This guy has real bonafides in the tech world as the first to hack an iPhone and he also did the same with the PS3.

http://www.slashgear.com/first-iphone-h ... -16418753/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Totally Kafkaesque
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

Couple of relevant recent articles:

City planners are doing the shrug emoticon thingy:
http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2015/1 ... rs/419346/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Human drivers having a hard time dealing with cars that obey traffic laws:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... a-key-flaw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: The Singularity

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"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

To me that's one of the biggest unanswered questions out there. Assuming the technology will exist to allow cars to operate without any human input except where to go, there is obviously no longer any need for a licensed adult to be in the car. That leads to a lot of possibilities, some good (elderly folks now able to "drive" themselves to the doctor or for groceries), some debatable (sending kids to school on their own), some really debatable (sending your dog to the vet, or sending a package across town), and some bad (sending explosives to the front door of the courthouse). It does seem to me that absent regulation, driverless car usage could end up being limited only by the bounds of human imagination.
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Re: The Singularity

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Shirley wrote:
brian wrote:Would be better if the dude beyond the wheel wasn't such a nancy.
True, but I get his unease. It would be hard to get used to.
I'd be edgy. Being in the driver's seat with the ability to over override the autopilot, it'd be tough not to reflexively grad the wheel or hit the brakes. A friend posted a video on FB of his father-in-law driving a Tesla in autopilot. He was much worse about reaching for the wheel, while the Bro-in-law laughed at him.
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Re: The Singularity

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I think this is a fair and reasonable temporary step. Once there is a critical mass of driverless cars then the laws can be adjusted. For now, the understanding and expectation is that there are times that someone would need to override the "driverless" mode.
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Re: The Singularity

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brian wrote:
I think this is a fair and reasonable temporary step. Once there is a critical mass of driverless cars then the laws can be adjusted. For now, the understanding and expectation is that there are times that someone would need to override the "driverless" mode.
People would freak the fuck out seeing a 10 year old behind the wheel.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by DaveInSeattle »

The Sybian wrote:
brian wrote:
I think this is a fair and reasonable temporary step. Once there is a critical mass of driverless cars then the laws can be adjusted. For now, the understanding and expectation is that there are times that someone would need to override the "driverless" mode.
People would freak the fuck out seeing a 10 year old behind the wheel.
On one of the first days I was in Australia, I looked up at a car driving by and instantly thought "oh my god...there's a little kid driving that car!". Of course, it was just because of the whole "drive on the other side of the road thing".
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Shirley »

brian wrote:
I think this is a fair and reasonable temporary step. Once there is a critical mass of driverless cars then the laws can be adjusted. For now, the understanding and expectation is that there are times that someone would need to override the "driverless" mode.
Yeah, I agree, as long as they keep an eye on technology and are ready to relax the law. Uber's whole future business model is around providing driverless cars. Same with the general idea of sharing ownership in electric cars. After you get to work, the car can go to the next person or take itself to the nearest charging station.

Of course, it'll completely revolutionize the commercial transportation industry with trucks that can drive without the limits of human endurance.
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Re: The Singularity

Post by Rex »

Who is going to gas up these driverless trucks? Are we going back to a full service gas station model? NJ was right all along!
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