Ball of Confusion

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Johnnie
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Johnnie »

Some SHIT is going down in Turkey. Like reports of military coup. Things in the city are being fired upon.

Last edited by Johnnie on Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Johnnie wrote:Some SHIT is going down in Turkey. Like reports of military coup. Things in the city are being fired upon?
Eh. What's the worst that could happen?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Johnnie »

Steve of phpBB wrote:Eh. What's the worst that could happen?
It gets renamed to Chicken.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by The Sybian »

You know, blocking Twitter and Youtube in the area surrounding a major in-progress new event might not be a bad idea.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Steve of phpBB »

The Sybian wrote:You know, blocking Twitter and Youtube in the area surrounding a major in-progress new event might not be a bad idea.
I wish I could do that.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Rex »

I will certainly want to keep abreast of this situation.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Pruitt »

Rex wrote:I will certainly want to keep abreast of this situation.
I hope the military doesn't get smoked.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by A_B »

Once you take over the government, the rest is gravy.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Ryan »

If I wanted to see a bunch of shitty people ruining Turkey, I'd go to a Lions game
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Shit, I just heard, I'm three hours behind the curve. No wonder my twitter is blowing up, but I haven't been checking it, I was actually doing some work.

The military has long been considered powerful enough to step in whenever they feel leadership is out of hand, and they have in the past, but I haven't heard of any rumblings since they shot down the Russian fighter jet several months ago.

The most recent news there is Erdogan shifted gears, to make nice with Russia and Israel. That certainly pissed off the US, so going in I'm suspicious of the fucking CIA, but like I said, I know nothing. To the internets!

eta: ok, now I get the turkey coup thread.

etaa: I should add, there have been a shitload of terrorist attacks in Turkey over the last six months, I would bet with a higher cumulative death toll than the ones in Europe. That has been a source of dissatisfaction with Erdogan. (funny how his support of ISIS probably fed those attacks, but more on that later.)

etaaa: just one more thing, based on five minutes of reading/the beeb. Holy fucking shit!
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Rex »

Indeed. Time to find out more about Turkey than that TMBG song and that Captain Oveur line.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

The BBC and CNN know absolutely nothing. That includes the experts they've trotted out in the last several minutes. Absolutely nothing, yet they jabber. Why did I bother?

eta: let me give an example. BBC reports coup is essentially over. Literally in the next breath, the newsreader announces that the parliament building is currently under tank fire. They know nothing.

etaa: at least Wesley Clark is saying 'we don't know' about every 30 seconds.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

CNN Turkey (CNN Türk Yanyini Kesiliyor) is broadcasting live as they are under attack by pro-coup soldiers.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Pruitt »

Just watching this unfold.

Am sorry for making a bad joke earlier.

Interesting too, as all we hear is from Ankara and Istanbul. That's a huge country, god forbid it splits apart.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by rass »

I felt aswirl with warm secretions.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Let me say something nice about the media. Between Anderson, Barbara Starr (since she is not reading from her usual pentagon script) and Wes Clark, they are doing a decent job of reporting the few clear facts, and emphasizing how little is known at this point. Good for them.

eta: yeah, CIA reps saying 'not it!' Wasn't us.

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Pruitt wrote:Am sorry for making a bad joke earlier.
Fuck that, man. This is one of the few remaining safe places for snap bad jokes. Keep 'em coming (or I'll have too).
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Rex »

The relationship between the Turks and U.S. authorities has always been a little too cozy for my liking.

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Several hours ago, Ergodan used face time to speak on CNN Turkey. He was reported to have bugged out in a small jet. There have been not yet confirmed reports that he landed in Istanbul. He better get his ass in front of a tv camera asap.

Same for the chief of the army, who also has not been seen.

oops, AP just reported Erdogan on ground at Istanbul airport, greeted by cheering crowds. CNN reporter at airport (in the terminal) says he sees no soldiers, just a few armed security guards.

I love this breaking news shit.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Well, (the power behind Solozzo,) Tattalia's a pimp. He never could've outfought Santino. But I didn't know until this day, it was Barzini all along.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

If they say so, I can't translate this stuff. Time stamp is EDT (my time zone); its 4am over there.

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

The Beeb just broadcast Erdogan making a tv appearance on NTV and Samanyolu TV (CANLI), two Turkish networks. No translation yet, looks like a legit live appearance/news conference.

eta: CNN also broadcast same thing.

etaa: That broadcast was on two (or more) commercial tv stations. There is a government owned network, that went off the air several hours ago, that did not carry the broadcast.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

CNN Turkey back on the air. And I will be leaving the air, as the Giants game is about to start. Priorities.

eta: last thing. I think this is the image of the evening. Erdogan was on the run, but he made this appearance on commercial TV via his iPhone's Face Time, and he urged the public to go onto the streets and oppose the coup ('go out and die for me'). This may have been a turning point, or not, but it makes for a good story until we get all the facts. Also, situation may be quite different in Istanbul, where Erdogan was last seen, and Ankara, the capital which is 400km away.

Image
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Pruitt »

Seems that the budding autocrat and (apparent) raider of the national treasury has survived in power.

Here's Erdogan's new palace - it cost around $650 million and has 1,100 rooms.

Image

The Turkish military is used to having a big say in how things are run in the country. I don't expect that this is over yet.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

The EU paid him a € 3.3 billion bribe a few months ago, to stop sending Syrian refugees north and west, no doubt most of that cash stuck to him.

In recent months Erdogan had been jailing journalists, shutting down newspapers and tossing other people in opposition into prison, calling them terrorists, and generally squeezing civil rights. Because he is a Strong Nato Ally we don't hear too much about such nastiness. He was pushing a constitutional amendment to increase his power as president. But last night, he sure was a hero of Democracy! Freedom!

The clampdown is under way. An hour ago they announced 2700 judges and prosecutors have been fired, and nearly 3000 army officers and soldiers are in custody. There likely will be far less democracy and civil freedom in the coming weeks/months and who knows how long into the future, whether Erdogan and his party, the AKP, emerges stronger, or if there is a significant military holdout in Ankara that can launch a counterstrike, now or later. A simple assassination of Erdogan could restart things, or not; I have no idea how strong the AKP is should they be decapitated in this manner. (If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can kill anyone.)

A huge, complex clusterfuck. I concur, Pruitt, that the army has not yet had their last say, but who knows, maybe he will tame them. Politically he has roughly 50% support of the populace, but that could soar after this failed coup. The people have bad memories of prior military coups and rule. NATO/USA has bases there, and Putin/Russia has economic as well as diplomatic ties of long standing, despite the recent enmity. Just a week ago, Erdogan apologized to Russia and paid reparations for shooting down a Russian fighter jet last November. The economy relies heavily on tourism, Russian and European; tourism from Russia was shut down but about to reopen, but a military coup, even failed, will put a damper on all travel there. An active, ongoing rebellion in the south by Kurdish people, marked by lots of terror attacks, haven't even talked about that.

Oh, and Syria. Here is a plain fact, not mentioned on the news. Erdogan actively supported ISIS, al Nusra (the rebranded al Qaada) and other indisputably extremist islamist bad guys because they are fighting Assad. (The USA too; sad but true.) Assad and his foreign coalition of Russia, Iran and Hezballa are winning, and may be on the verge of cutting off Aleppo, laying siege to the western half of the city which is the ISIS stronghold. Erdogan recently cut off support of ISIS, coinciding with his peace offerings to Russia. This may have been the motive for the airport terrorist attack in Istanbul three weeks ago. (Same airport at the center of events last night.) The US cannot be happy about this pivot toward Russia, away from anti-Assad forces. Then again, Kerry is in Moscow, arranging military cooperation with Russia in Syria against those same forces.

Domestically, complex and unstable, politically, economically, significant ethnic rebellion, and regarding security forces (military, civil police and intelligence service, the MIT, which I haven't mentioned since I don't know shit about them generally, much less their role last night.) Foreign wise, regarding USA/Nato, the EU and the refugee situation, Russia and war in Syria. Shit was way complicated two days ago. Now it's downright byzantine.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Oh, and san carlos retweeted this:

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

A couple months ago, a Brit magazine had a poetry contest, ‘The President Erdogan Offensive Poetry Competition’.

This was in response to Erdogan's demand of the German government that a German comedian who had offended Erdogan with an insulting poem be prosecuted. And the German government complied. Another reminder to enjoy our free speech before it goes away, because we are currently more free in this regard than our enlightened European and Brit partners.

Anyway, the Spectator had their contest. This was the winning entry:
There was a young fellow from Ankara

Who was a terrific wankerer

Till he sowed his wild oats

With the help of a goat

But he didn’t even stop to thankera.
The author and winner of the contest? Boris Johnson, now the UK Foreign Minister. You can't make this shit up.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

And this happened this morning:

Turkish Government Cuts Power, Closes Airspace at Incirlik Air Base
ABC News-3 hours ago


(They changed the headline to be less scary.)

This is a primary base of U.S. air operations against Syria and Iraq. Not today, though.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Pruitt »

howard wrote:A couple months ago, a Brit magazine had a poetry contest, ‘The President Erdogan Offensive Poetry Competition’.

This was in response to Erdogan's demand of the German government that a German comedian who had offended Erdogan with an insulting poem be prosecuted. And the German government complied. Another reminder to enjoy our free speech before it goes away, because we are currently more free in this regard than our enlightened European and Brit partners.

Anyway, the Spectator had their contest. This was the winning entry:
There was a young fellow from Ankara

Who was a terrific wankerer

Till he sowed his wild oats

With the help of a goat

But he didn’t even stop to thankera.
The author and winner of the contest? Boris Johnson, now the UK Foreign Minister. You can't make this shit up.
That is absolutely amazing. Did you hear the crowd at the French Embassy boo him the other day?
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Johnnie »

howard wrote:And this happened this morning:

Turkish Government Cuts Power, Closes Airspace at Incirlik Air Base
ABC News-3 hours ago


(They changed the headline to be less scary.)

This is a primary base of U.S. air operations against Syria and Iraq. Not today, though.
Oh shit.

I have peeps that are stationed there. That's fucking nuts.

And we have nukes there.

Any word on Izmir? That's another base we have over there.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Sounds like this incident is/was not super tense. They didn't storm the gates with soldiers or anything. Closed the airspace and cut the power. One rumor is that two F-16s used in the coup were parked at Incirlik. A more solid rumor is some pilots or other Turkish military personnel who participated in the coup were on base, and govt forces wanted to arrest them. It could be a middle finger gesture to the US, but it's not like they are gonna attack a US/Nato base and steal the nukes. Relations haven't tumbled quite that low in the last 24.

Besides, I'm sure you guys have a fine squad of Blackwater (or whatever they call that company now) mercs providing security on the gates.

Lots of folks are projecting from tea leaves and very sparse facts what this means for Turkish relations with the West and/or the East (Putin). I choose to dismiss accusations that the US was behind this coup until there is some evidence. Same for accusations this Gulen fellow is behind the coup.

Haven't read a word about Izmir/Symrna. There was a Kurd missile attack in the town a couple weeks ago, didn't hurt anyone.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Moreta »

I have a friend in Izmir on vacation from Oman. She said the populace was thrilled with the possibility of an overthrow. Lots of horns honking and the like. She felt completely safe.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Hey Johnnie

The Turkish general who is base commander of Incirlik was arrested by govt, along with eleven others. That was prob the impetus around shutting it down, so he/they could not jump in a jet and escape. Source is AP, via Stars and Stripes/military.com

Incirlik Airspace Reopened; Turkish Base Commander Detained
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Pruitt »

The theory that Erdogan was behind the whole thing is crazy...

But in light of the wholesale crackdown going on, I'm not so sure.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

I don't get the assumption that the presence of a long enemies list is accepted as strong evidence, or even proof, that this was a false flag.

Erdogan's supreme paranoia is well documented, apparently a common trait in dictatorial types (see Hillary) (just trollin' y'all.) For him to have a list of folks to be rounded up in event of an opportunity is pretty reasonable.

One theory is he was planning a roundup of usual suspects this week anyway. And then the coup happened to happen. This is not the first time he has arrested a bunch of military officers and put them on trial, just nowhere near this many.

Finally, even if he didn't already have a little list, how long does it take to have a team of underlings type up a list of people to round up? Surely could be done in a day.

Actual evidence of a false flag is pretty scant. I think he was tipped off (CIA? Russia? His own intelligence services) and that leads to a much more simple explanation for the mistakes and clownish failures of the coup.

One more thing. This very widely reported and accepted 'fact' that two rebel F-16s had his Gulfstream in their sights and failed to shoot him down/kill him, is based on exactly one anonymous person, cited in a Reuter's story. Even if it turns out to be true, a dozen plausible explanations spring to mind. Starting with the report of a 'dogfight' between two rebel F-16s and two loyal F-16s, even though none were downed, and there haven't been consistent reports documenting any shots or missiles fired.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Johnnie »

howard wrote:Hey Johnnie

The Turkish general who is base commander of Incirlik was arrested by govt, along with eleven others. That was prob the impetus around shutting it down, so he/they could not jump in a jet and escape. Source is AP, via Stars and Stripes/military.com

Incirlik Airspace Reopened; Turkish Base Commander Detained
That's really interesting. Sometimes I forget our intelligence sources are ahead of the game and see this shit coming. So when an event happens, they've probably already planned the course of action.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

The weirdness keeps on coming

Turkish navy ships still missing since attempted coup – as it remains unclear which side admirals are on
The commander of the Turkish navy has not been heard from since the failed coup


The ones in the Black Sea kinda have no where to go, unless the Russians take them in at Sevastepol (or I suppose the Ukrainians at Odessa.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by Johnnie »

Sounds like a wonderful plot to the Turkish version of By Dawn's Early Light.
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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by howard »

Erdogan's Reichstag Fire. Fire/arrest everybody who disagrees. This tweet isn't up to date; nearly 50,000 people so far.

Here's an interesting article, speculating about what comes next. Coup Defeat Hastens Change In Turkey's Foreign Policy

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Re: Ball of Confusion

Post by A_B »

Is being sacked better than being dismissed?
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