Alabama Election

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Does Roy Moore win the Alabama Senate race?

Yes
16
62%
No
10
38%
 
Total votes: 26

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The Sybian
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by The Sybian »

Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.


[sob/] I can't let myself get hurt again. [sob]. Yeah, I'm fighting my excitement over this. I feel like politics is a pendulum. We elect a black President, and the fallout is a violent swing towards the Tea Party and Trump. We have Trump, and I do think we will see a big swing in House with the Dems gaining seats. I think the Dems won't have as big of a swing in the Senate, because of the Senators up for reelection. The other thing that gives me some comfort, is throughout American history, Progressive ideas take root. The parallels between the Civil Rights movement and the gay rights movement are very clear, and I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by govmentchedda »

Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Joe K »

govmentchedda wrote:
Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?

You raise good points, but I'm just happy that it's still possible for there to even be a bridge too far. I was starting to have my doubts on that one.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Brontoburglar »

The Sybian wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:ETA. This is not what polling is showing. This is being perceived as a wealth transfer to the rich. There's no way to come back from that. Democrats know this all too well. Once it's been branded, you're fucked.

You don't have to trust me, but... Trust me. They are fucked.


Just about everything I've read and seen agrees with you, I am just jaded as fuck, and I'm convinced the Republicans will keep on doing the same, and keep on getting away with it.

I feel like the GOP base will vote Republican no matter what. Look at Alabama. "Moore fucks children, but at least he isn't a Democrat." I constantly heard "Jones is weak on crime, and wants to kill all fetuses while the mother is in labor, especially if it's a Christian baby in a married family." (possibly paraphrased). Regardless of how polls are shown to be untrustworthy, it's enormous to have a tax cut deemed unpopular. I'm hoping you are right, but I have lost faith.


there still hasn't been enough conversation regarding the "you're not a good person if it's a moral dilemma to vote for a democrat vs. a pedophile" angle
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Re: Alabama Election

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The Sybian wrote:[sob/] I can't let myself get hurt again. [sob]. Yeah, I'm fighting my excitement over this.


That's exactly where I am, too.

The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Joe K »

Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Giff »

Joe K wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.


I don't think it will, honestly. I think abortion is on a completely other level with these voters.
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Re: Alabama Election

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Joe K wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.



not sure. demographics are changing and the younger generation is more tolerant of issues the GOP is against. The issues in 2020 and 2024 and so on will be different as the boomers literally die off.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Brontoburglar »

gay marriage is like 10x less harmful than MURDER on the evangelical scale
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Re: Alabama Election

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I don't know, man. It really pisses god off a lot.
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Re: Alabama Election

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mister d wrote:I don't know, man. It really pisses god off a lot.


She will just send more hurricanes and earthquakes.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by mister d »

God is a white dude.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by brian »

Abortion is just another long-term loser for the GOP though. It still means something in heavily evangelical states, but people are moving away from religion and two generations of women have now grown up with legal abortion. I suspect the GOP realizes that demonizing abortion is preferable electorally than banning it.
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Re: Alabama Election

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Brontoburglar wrote:
The Sybian wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:ETA. This is not what polling is showing. This is being perceived as a wealth transfer to the rich. There's no way to come back from that. Democrats know this all too well. Once it's been branded, you're fucked.

You don't have to trust me, but... Trust me. They are fucked.


Just about everything I've read and seen agrees with you, I am just jaded as fuck, and I'm convinced the Republicans will keep on doing the same, and keep on getting away with it.

I feel like the GOP base will vote Republican no matter what. Look at Alabama. "Moore fucks children, but at least he isn't a Democrat." I constantly heard "Jones is weak on crime, and wants to kill all fetuses while the mother is in labor, especially if it's a Christian baby in a married family." (possibly paraphrased). Regardless of how polls are shown to be untrustworthy, it's enormous to have a tax cut deemed unpopular. I'm hoping you are right, but I have lost faith.


there still hasn't been enough conversation regarding the "you're not a good person if it's a moral dilemma to vote for a democrat vs. a pedophile" angle


Eh, I do get how people could be torn. If someone is a pro-life activist and sees abortion as murdering babies, I can see preferring a guy who allegedly dated teenagers 40 years ago over a guy who supports killing millions of babies. If you believed the attacks on Jones, you'd believe he has a blood lust for killing fetuses, supports letting terrorists, murderers, drug dealers and job stealers illegal come in and destroy our country. Plus, he wants to give YOUR money to a lazy black guy who refuses to work.
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Re: Alabama Election

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"God chooses the imperfect" is like a rallying cry.
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Re: Alabama Election

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Steve of phpBB wrote:My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.


I'm oblivious to this. I know in certain places and amongst certain people, interracial marriage was never accepted, but is it really becoming less acceptable in certain places? I feel like it has become so ingrained in our society, that TV characters date people of other races without it even being mentioned. Fuck, I've even seen commercials with interracial couples where race isn't mentioned, and other than the Cheerios commercial, there hasn't been any blowback.

I agree with Giff. Abortion is a much stronger issue, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. It's sad that the Pro Life movement was created out of nefarious schemes by the GOP to suck in voters, but it is so ingrained, I don't think that will ever fade away. The scary thing is, that is a big reason why an imbecile like Betsy DeVos is Secretary of Education. The GOP desperately wants to fund religious education, because brainwashing from childhood is the only way their platform can remain relevant in 20 years. Using the fear of God and fire and brimstone is the only way they can keep their base propping up their Billionaire overlords.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Brontoburglar »

The Sybian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:
The Sybian wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:ETA. This is not what polling is showing. This is being perceived as a wealth transfer to the rich. There's no way to come back from that. Democrats know this all too well. Once it's been branded, you're fucked.

You don't have to trust me, but... Trust me. They are fucked.


Just about everything I've read and seen agrees with you, I am just jaded as fuck, and I'm convinced the Republicans will keep on doing the same, and keep on getting away with it.

I feel like the GOP base will vote Republican no matter what. Look at Alabama. "Moore fucks children, but at least he isn't a Democrat." I constantly heard "Jones is weak on crime, and wants to kill all fetuses while the mother is in labor, especially if it's a Christian baby in a married family." (possibly paraphrased). Regardless of how polls are shown to be untrustworthy, it's enormous to have a tax cut deemed unpopular. I'm hoping you are right, but I have lost faith.


there still hasn't been enough conversation regarding the "you're not a good person if it's a moral dilemma to vote for a democrat vs. a pedophile" angle


Eh, I do get how people could be torn. If someone is a pro-life activist and sees abortion as murdering babies, I can see preferring a guy who allegedly dated teenagers 40 years ago over a guy who supports killing millions of babies. If you believed the attacks on Jones, you'd believe he has a blood lust for killing fetuses, supports letting terrorists, murderers, drug dealers and job stealers illegal come in and destroy our country. Plus, he wants to give YOUR money to a lazy black guy who refuses to work.


sure, but that goes back to what I was alluding to -- treating beliefs as facts (abortion is murder!!!!! gay marriage is ruining society!!!) is dangerous
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Re: Alabama Election

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Brontoburglar wrote:sure, but that goes back to what I was alluding to -- treating beliefs as facts (abortion is murder!!!!! gay marriage is ruining society!!!) is dangerous


And some people would argue it's dangerous to treat as a fact that a 32 year old man shouldn't date or molest teenaged girls. There are still cultures where it's perfectly acceptable and normal for adult men to marry 14 year old girls. And some would argue that we are treating belief as a fact that gay marriage is not ruining society.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Giff wrote:
Joe K wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.


I don't think it will, honestly. I think abortion is on a completely other level with these voters.


I think abortion will continue to be the big issue going forward, too.

I think gay marriage will become less of an issue than interracial marriage, too, as gays become more accepted as "people". Gays marrying each other will be seen as no big deal to people not involved in those marriages. But mixing the races, and polluting that pure white race will always be a big problem for some people.

And unless they figure out a way for abortion not to result in the death of a fetus, I don't see the abortion issue fading away any time soon.
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Re: Alabama Election

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The huge disconnect I'm seeing is from non-Southern liberals posting and writing "I just don't understand how anyone could vote for Moore." Well, respectfully, you aren't TRYING to understand.

I'm not pointing at anyone here.

The I can't stand former congressman Kingston (R-GA), but he said something the other day on CNN that really opened up my understanding of evangelicals... "they believe that the Lord works through imperfect vessels."

Which is classic religious propaganda that obviously allows them to support whoever they NEED to support to achieve their goals. And like Syb said, when you are on a crusade to save all the babies, holding your nose and voting against Jones was pretty easy from their moral standpoint.

I'm not saying that understanding this would've necessarily changed anything in AL. It's possible NOTHING can change some people's minds. I choose to believe that if nothing else, understanding your adversary is a lot more practical/pragmatic/strategic than just shaking your head in disgust/dismay/dismissal at their ignorance... which you don't really understand.
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Re: Alabama Election

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Steve of phpBB wrote:
Giff wrote:
Joe K wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.


I don't think it will, honestly. I think abortion is on a completely other level with these voters.


I think abortion will continue to be the big issue going forward, too.

I think gay marriage will become less of an issue than interracial marriage, too, as gays become more accepted as "people". Gays marrying each other will be seen as no big deal to people not involved in those marriages. But mixing the races, and polluting that pure white race will always be a big problem for some people.

And unless they figure out a way for abortion not to result in the death of a fetus, I don't see the abortion issue fading away any time soon.


I also believe as more and more people have the courage to come out, it's going to be hard to escape knowing someone who's gay and in a committed relationship. It's hard to continue to hate something like that when you're exposed to it in people you love or trust.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by P.D.X. »

Honestly can't believe that Moore never 'fessed up to perving and then claimed he found Jebus and so is all good now. That's like first page of the playbook. Instead he went full Costanza.
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Re: Alabama Election

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The Sybian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:sure, but that goes back to what I was alluding to -- treating beliefs as facts (abortion is murder!!!!! gay marriage is ruining society!!!) is dangerous


And some people would argue it's dangerous to treat as a fact that a 32 year old man shouldn't date or molest teenaged girls. There are still cultures where it's perfectly acceptable and normal for adult men to marry 14 year old girls. And some would argue that we are treating belief as a fact that gay marriage is not ruining society.



There is a really interesting Frontline podcast that gets into this... Americans are under the delusional belief that there are zero instances of child marriages in this country... That's something that only happens in India and Africa.

The fact of the matter is that 1000s of teens are married to older men in this country. Mostly in the south, obviously not exclusively, but it's absolutely not as big of a deal in certain parts of the country.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Giff wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Giff wrote:
Joe K wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I'm confident in 30 years, gay marriage will be as accepted as interracial marriages are today. Hopefully the Reactionary swing is a blip on the longterm timeline and not a path we are headed down.


My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.

I also fear that gay marriage, like abortion, will be an issue that motivates GOP voters for decades and leads them to look past the party's kleptocratic economic policies.


I don't think it will, honestly. I think abortion is on a completely other level with these voters.


I think abortion will continue to be the big issue going forward, too.

I think gay marriage will become less of an issue than interracial marriage, too, as gays become more accepted as "people". Gays marrying each other will be seen as no big deal to people not involved in those marriages. But mixing the races, and polluting that pure white race will always be a big problem for some people.

And unless they figure out a way for abortion not to result in the death of a fetus, I don't see the abortion issue fading away any time soon.


I also believe as more and more people have the courage to come out, it's going to be hard to escape knowing someone who's gay and in a committed relationship. It's hard to continue to hate something like that when you're exposed to it in people you love or trust.


This. I've heard multiple social commentator type folks make this very point (most recently Ezra Klein on his podcast.)

And I obviously don't live in the south and don't claim any special insight... But I have to think that the same thing is going on with interracial marriage is becoming less and less of a "thing." It's certainly true that it's taking longer to lose its stigma in the entertainment industry. Not that I'm an authority, but I can only think of a handful of interracial marriages on TV. Whereas we had Will & Grace and the two dudes on Modern Family and very few people bat an eye. Ellen rather famously came out on her sitcom and she's the new Oprah at this point. People just don't really care much anymore.

I would also just make the observation that interracial couples that don't involve a black and a white person are actually pretty mainstream already. Shit, I Love Lucy had a cuban dude. Modern Family, she's from Columbia... The Korean dude on the Walking Dead... Kimmy Schmidt and that asian guy... That's just off the top of my head.

Scandal and How to get away with murder have a black/white thing going on. Luke Cage and Jessica Jones. Trying to think of others... That's still, apparently, not totally cool with Hollywood yet.
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Re: Alabama Election

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The fact you didn't bring up the criminally underappreciated Happy Endings in terms of interracial marriages and gay characters makes me want to drown my sorrows with a Steaktanic.
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Re: Alabama Election

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Oh and I want to remind everyone something that is kind of being forgotten (?) or maybe it's all just so obvious no one in the media is talking about it:

Trump picked Sessions for AG in large part because he was loyal (and possibly because he knew Sessions was somehow going to be needed in that seat if shit went sideways on any number of legal fronts.)

But, and I know this is obvious, he also did it because he knew AL wouldn't flip in a special election, which is crucial given the slim Senate majority.

He then proceeded to mirror McConnell's mis-steps, backing Strange, then backing Moore.

Again, I know this is all very obvious, and maybe I'm just talking to myself... But when we talk about self-inflicted wounds, this one is a doozy.
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Re: Alabama Election

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And that's not even including that it was Sessions lying about his own contacts with the Russians which let to him having to recuse himself from what would have been a sham investigation and bringing Mueller in.

Sessions' stupidity has had a lot of unexpected and wide-ranging benefits.
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Re: Alabama Election

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It's true.

Sessions ran unopposed last time.

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Re: Alabama Election

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L-Jam3 wrote:The fact you didn't bring up the criminally underappreciated Happy Endings in terms of interracial marriages and gay characters makes me want to drown my sorrows with a Steaktanic.


Good call.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by sancarlos »

govmentchedda wrote:
Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?

As much as I’d like to say the Alabama election was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, I don’t think that was the case. Roy Moore dominated the white vote. It was just that the blacks got engaged and really turned out to vote this time.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by TT2.0 »

The Sybian wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:My fear is that interracial marriages are less accepted now (in certain places) than they were even ten years ago. That scares me.


I'm oblivious to this. I know in certain places and amongst certain people, interracial marriage was never accepted, but is it really becoming less acceptable in certain places? I feel like it has become so ingrained in our society, that TV characters date people of other races without it even being mentioned. Fuck, I've even seen commercials with interracial couples where race isn't mentioned, and other than the Cheerios commercial, there hasn't been any blowback.

I agree with Giff. Abortion is a much stronger issue, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. It's sad that the Pro Life movement was created out of nefarious schemes by the GOP to suck in voters, but it is so ingrained, I don't think that will ever fade away. The scary thing is, that is a big reason why an imbecile like Betsy DeVos is Secretary of Education. The GOP desperately wants to fund religious education, because brainwashing from childhood is the only way their platform can remain relevant in 20 years. Using the fear of God and fire and brimstone is the only way they can keep their base propping up their Billionaire overlords.



it is absolutely hard to be in an interracial relationship in texas...best case we go out and ONLY get a few dirty looks....worst case, and has happended repeatedly, someone insults ash with a horrific racial slur or calls me a "n word lover", a race traitor, or my own personal fave, a miscegenator. its not a lot of progress in the south and one day i will go to jail for punching a guy for saying shit to ashley...its inevitzble
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Nonlinear FC »

sancarlos wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?

As much as I’d like to say the Alabama election was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, I don’t think that was the case. Roy Moore dominated the white vote. It was just that the blacks got engaged and really turned out to vote this time.



This is exactly the formula that will lead to a tsunami in 2018. Moderate (mostly wealth, mostly suburban) republicans will vote for an R, but their enthusiasm is way down and they won't turn out in big numbers. Even in rural areas in AL and VA, turn out was down significantly from 2016. Independents are trending towards Democrats.

And the anti-Trump enthusiasm is off the charts, particularly among minorities.

It doesn't matter if 2018 is some across the board repudiation. Just need the current trends to continue.
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sancarlos
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by sancarlos »

Nonlinear FC wrote:
sancarlos wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?

As much as I’d like to say the Alabama election was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, I don’t think that was the case. Roy Moore dominated the white vote. It was just that the blacks got engaged and really turned out to vote this time.

This is exactly the formula that will lead to a tsunami in 2018. Moderate (mostly wealth, mostly suburban) republicans will vote for an R, but their enthusiasm is way down and they won't turn out in big numbers. Even in rural areas in AL and VA, turn out was down significantly from 2016. Independents are trending towards Democrats.

And the anti-Trump enthusiasm is off the charts, particularly among minorities.

It doesn't matter if 2018 is some across the board repudiation. Just need the current trends to continue.

Way more than the other factors, it's about voter turnout among minorities.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Brontoburglar »

The Sybian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:sure, but that goes back to what I was alluding to -- treating beliefs as facts (abortion is murder!!!!! gay marriage is ruining society!!!) is dangerous


And some people would argue it's dangerous to treat as a fact that a 32 year old man shouldn't date or molest teenaged girls. There are still cultures where it's perfectly acceptable and normal for adult men to marry 14 year old girls. And some would argue that we are treating belief as a fact that gay marriage is not ruining society.


I get what you're saying, except we have no evidence! And we have fairly strong evidence that abortion is not murder. To me, it's all part of the scheme to dismiss anything that doesn't fall in line with the belief system. and we all know how good conservative messaging has been on that over the last 20 years.

Nonlinear FC wrote:There is a really interesting Frontline podcast that gets into this... Americans are under the delusional belief that there are zero instances of child marriages in this country... That's something that only happens in India and Africa.

The fact of the matter is that 1000s of teens are married to older men in this country. Mostly in the south, obviously not exclusively, but it's absolutely not as big of a deal in certain parts of the country.


Kind of like the human trafficking thing. We sweep that under the rug too when it's a far larger problem than some want to admit. There was an eye-opening story here a month or so ago about how many kids just simply disappeared from the Kansas foster system.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Brontoburglar wrote:And we have fairly strong evidence that abortion is not murder.


What evidence is that?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Yeah, as pro-choice as I am, I am certainly conflicted on the issue. As an example, late-term abortion is dicey for me... At that point, needs to have a health of the mother reason to abort.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by degenerasian »

sancarlos wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:
sancarlos wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Square Rob wrote:Syb, last night should have restored that faith. Even given all of that bullshit, in about the reddest state around, I now have a Democratic senator. Two years ago Roy wins that election by 25. The tide is shifting.

The interesting question for me is whether the tide is shifting away from Trump/GOP or if these particular allegations were a bridge too far? It's certainly a mix of both, but how much of each, and what will future elections look like? Can we even make such broad generalizations to say it's one or the other, when comparing different candidates in different localities and states?

As much as I’d like to say the Alabama election was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, I don’t think that was the case. Roy Moore dominated the white vote. It was just that the blacks got engaged and really turned out to vote this time.

This is exactly the formula that will lead to a tsunami in 2018. Moderate (mostly wealth, mostly suburban) republicans will vote for an R, but their enthusiasm is way down and they won't turn out in big numbers. Even in rural areas in AL and VA, turn out was down significantly from 2016. Independents are trending towards Democrats.

And the anti-Trump enthusiasm is off the charts, particularly among minorities.

It doesn't matter if 2018 is some across the board repudiation. Just need the current trends to continue.

Way more than the other factors, it's about voter turnout among minorities.



Depending on minorities is always a risk because the idea is to lump them in one group. They don't agree on everything and/or they are conservative in nature. There would always have to be a trigger of some kind go get their vote as a block. Blacks voted against Moore in numbers because he was a terrible candidate and a bigot even before the allegations. It took someone that bad to get the vote out.

They can't depend on bad candidates on the other side every time.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by mister d »

Nonlinear FC wrote:Yeah, as pro-choice as I am, I am certainly conflicted on the issue. As an example, late-term abortion is dicey for me... At that point, needs to have a health of the mother reason to abort.


See, I'm the opposite here. If its a viable baby, how can you kill it to save an adult?
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Joe K »

It's not so much about lumping minorities as one group as it is that Trump -- and by extension the GOP -- has repeatedly demonized several different minority groups in ways that those voters will likely have a significant incentive to vote Dem in 2018. Even some minority groups that are traditionally conservative have been treated so awfully by the GOP that they are now fairly reliable Democratic voters. American Muslims are a good example of this. Not so long ago they leaned strongly towards the GOP. But now that's totally flipped, for understandable reasons.
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Re: Alabama Election

Post by Nonlinear FC »

mister d wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:Yeah, as pro-choice as I am, I am certainly conflicted on the issue. As an example, late-term abortion is dicey for me... At that point, needs to have a health of the mother reason to abort.


See, I'm the opposite here. If its a viable baby, how can you kill it to save an adult?



Because that's my wife. Kid might be cool, but I know 100 percent that my wife is awesome.

(I'm not saying this is any kind of basis for law or policy... It also points out how crazy difficult it is to to address the issue.)
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