The Swamp

Posted: **Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:28 pm**

Who wants to start?

Posted: **Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:51 pm**

I’ve accidentally made about $150 on Bitcoin since April. (It’s a long story.)

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:48 am**

This is all going to crash, right? I remember hearing about its beginnings but then I kept reading it was all phony and people were hoarding it. Now it's worth a bunch of real money? I don't get it.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:54 am**

Could someone do a one-sentence, or one-paragraph, explanation of what this is and why it's a big deal? I always hear it talked about like it's self-evidently clear, but the descriptions I've read sail over my head.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:55 am**

I am at a conference where the young folks who are mostly with vendors (and wearing Jeans) are talking all about the money they are making on virtual currency. At the same conference the old guys who are mostly investors (and wearing full suits and ties) keep walking past these conversations and just saying "Tulips"

https://www.investopedia.com/features/c ... ashes2.asp

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:00 am**

Johnny Carwash wrote:Could someone do a one-sentence, or one-paragraph, explanation of what this is and why it's a big deal? I always hear it talked about like it's self-evidently clear, but the descriptions I've read sail over my head.

non-governmental backed virtual currency built on top of a decentralized (replicated), encrypted (which allows for anonymous use), and immutable database. where transactions are validated by a consensus math problem. The scarcity adds value (which is based on the promise that there will only be n coins ever created). But taking the technology out of it (which sort of defeats the purpose) they are any other made up scarce resource that has value that fluctuates based on demand (i.e. baseball cards or dave and buster points).

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:34 am**

I purposefully "made" about $400 on it yesterday, in a roundabout way. I'll probably lose all those gainz today but until then make it rain.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:36 am**

Johnnie wrote:This is all going to crash, right? I remember hearing about its beginnings but then I kept reading it was all phony and people were hoarding it. Now it's worth a bunch of real money? I don't get it.

Most things crash. Everything's got some tulip bulb in it.

It probably will but I also wouldn't be surprised if it keeps going way up. I don't judge things by how 'dumb' they might sound to traditional people. The biggest concern is also what makes it what it is, and that's the lack of regulation.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:39 am**

wlu_lax6 wrote:I am at a conference where the young folks who are mostly with vendors (and wearing Jeans) are talking all about the money they are making on virtual currency. At the same conference the old guys who are mostly investors (and wearing full suits and ties) keep walking past these conversations and just saying "Tulips"

https://www.investopedia.com/features/c ... ashes2.asp

Just don't get caught holding the tulips at the end.

Those same old guys said that Facebook was a fraud and anyone who bought their stock was a moron. Yet if you invested in it a few years ago, your wealth has gone up significantly. You can lose your money quickly in anything.

The main difference between bitcoin and tulip bulbs IMO is that there is a finite amount of Bitcoin as it's presently constructed. Would I invest heavily in it at this point? Hell no. But I don't doubt that there may still be a ton of money to be made.

Those old guys probably had a ton of money in Enron and then gave some to Madoff.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:42 am**

wlu_lax6 wrote:
Johnny Carwash wrote:Could someone do a one-sentence, or one-paragraph, explanation of what this is and why it's a big deal? I always hear it talked about like it's self-evidently clear, but the descriptions I've read sail over my head.

non-governmental backed virtual currency built on top of a decentralized (replicated), encrypted (which allows for anonymous use), and immutable database. where transactions are validated by a consensus math problem. The scarcity adds value (which is based on the promise that there will only be n coins ever created). But taking the technology out of it (which sort of defeats the purpose) they are any other made up scarce resource that has value that fluctuates based on demand (i.e. baseball cards or dave and buster points).

I see it's already been covered.

And yeah, you can buy drugs and stuff with it.

I certainly wouldn't want my money all tied long term to Bitcoin, but that's probably an old guy "this stuff is weird" feeling I have about it.

If anyone wants to play penny stocks with me the one I'm in right now for Bitcoin related items is BTSC. If people are going to actually use this as currency, someone has to facilitate the transactions. I figure it's a cheap way to ride the wave while it's hot and I'll probably sell it by the end of the week.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:09 am**

Out of BTSC. Doubling up is enough for me. Stock is moving like crazy.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:19 pm**

I heard a podcast that discussed Bitcoin, I think it was a finance guy on Rogan. I thought the guy was a douchebag and full of shit, but I agree with him on Bitcoin. If you want to invest, go for it. a lot of people have made fortunes on it, and you probably still can, but it can disappear tomorrow. Unlike government currency, there is no gold reserve or stable governmental promise backing it. It only holds value as long as others value it.

I'm nervous about the digital nature of it. I know someone who has Bitcoins on a hard drive that corrupted, and he can't access the files. I'm not sure I understand it, but there isn't a bank holding the currency, or a website to access your Bitcoin. He was going to computer forensics people to recover the files, but didn't have any luck last I heard. You can lose cash the same way, but that's why I don't carry much at any time.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:22 pm**

I hate it when my pocket gets corrupted!

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:41 pm**

The Sybian wrote:I heard a podcast that discussed Bitcoin, I think it was a finance guy on Rogan. I thought the guy was a douchebag and full of shit, but I agree with him on Bitcoin. If you want to invest, go for it. a lot of people have made fortunes on it, and you probably still can, but it can disappear tomorrow. Unlike government currency, there is no gold reserve or stable governmental promise backing it. It only holds value as long as others value it.

I'm nervous about the digital nature of it. I know someone who has Bitcoins on a hard drive that corrupted, and he can't access the files. I'm not sure I understand it, but there isn't a bank holding the currency, or a website to access your Bitcoin. He was going to computer forensics people to recover the files, but didn't have any luck last I heard. You can lose cash the same way, but that's why I don't carry much at any time.

I read about some guy who wiped a hard drive accidentally and lost like $30K. Heck, I just had to un-delete a bunch of pictures to varying degrees of success due to a corrupted memory card.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:46 pm**

The Sybian wrote:I heard a podcast that discussed Bitcoin, I think it was a finance guy on Rogan. I thought the guy was a douchebag and full of shit, but I agree with him on Bitcoin. If you want to invest, go for it. a lot of people have made fortunes on it, and you probably still can, but it can disappear tomorrow. Unlike government currency, there is no gold reserve or stable governmental promise backing it. It only holds value as long as others value it.

I'm nervous about the digital nature of it. I know someone who has Bitcoins on a hard drive that corrupted, and he can't access the files. I'm not sure I understand it, but there isn't a bank holding the currency, or a website to access your Bitcoin. He was going to computer forensics people to recover the files, but didn't have any luck last I heard. You can lose cash the same way, but that's why I don't carry much at any time.

I have had Bitcoin explained to me thoroughly and patiently and I just can't get past the feeling that there is a big bubble forming here.

Just the idea that people can create their own wealth in this manner - by creating currency - makes me very skeptical.

Bitcoin is the big one for sure, but there are a number of other new currencies being generated out there.

Is my scepticism a sign of age?

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:50 pm**

Pruitt wrote:
The Sybian wrote:I heard a podcast that discussed Bitcoin, I think it was a finance guy on Rogan. I thought the guy was a douchebag and full of shit, but I agree with him on Bitcoin. If you want to invest, go for it. a lot of people have made fortunes on it, and you probably still can, but it can disappear tomorrow. Unlike government currency, there is no gold reserve or stable governmental promise backing it. It only holds value as long as others value it.

I'm nervous about the digital nature of it. I know someone who has Bitcoins on a hard drive that corrupted, and he can't access the files. I'm not sure I understand it, but there isn't a bank holding the currency, or a website to access your Bitcoin. He was going to computer forensics people to recover the files, but didn't have any luck last I heard. You can lose cash the same way, but that's why I don't carry much at any time.

I have had Bitcoin explained to me thoroughly and patiently and I just can't get past the feeling that there is a big bubble forming here.

Just the idea that people can create their own wealth in this manner - by creating currency - makes me very skeptical.

Bitcoin is the big one for sure, but there are a number of other new currencies being generated out there.

Is my scepticism a sign of age?

I was thinking the same thing. Am I too old to see this is the future, or wise enough not to dive in? That's the other issue with Bitcoin; what happens when someone comes out with a better version, will people suddenly stop accepting it as payment? I think this is different than Myspace, since people will have their wealth tied into Bitcoin, and have a vested interest in continuing to use it, but I just don't see this as a long term play.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:51 pm**

Pruitt wrote:Is my scepticism a sign of age?

No you are just a wise skeptic. Bitcoin is probably less of a risk than some other coins...but the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) market is really strange. In theory it is a low friction, cool fund raising idea for companies (the ICO maybe a token---dave and buster points, or a regulated security). The challenge is you may not really know which at time of issuance). It is also really hard to determine legit v. fraud in this space.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:52 pm**

I don't think there's much concern about Bitcoin's legitimacy, but it's obviously a bubble. I don't think anyone would argue that. The issue isn't if it's a bubble, but rather when to sell. There no reason to think it couldn't run another 50 to 100 percent before it bursts.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:04 pm**

A friend here who is a dabbler in ethereum mining (he's almost made his computer investment back at current prices) has a concern about bitcoin (and take it with a grain of salt since he is obviously an ethereum acolyte and he did sell his one bitcoin at $7,500) that bitcoin is Alta Vista. Good idea, but someone is gonna come along and figure out the way to make the crypto-currency Google and bitcoin is going to be forgotten.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:38 pm**

Alta Vista. Hadn't thought of that in a long time. Heh.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:42 pm**

A_B wrote:A friend here who is a dabbler in ethereum mining (he's almost made his computer investment back at current prices) has a concern about bitcoin (and take it with a grain of salt since he is obviously an ethereum acolyte and he did sell his one bitcoin at $7,500) that bitcoin is Alta Vista. Good idea, but someone is gonna come along and figure out the way to make the crypto-currency Google and bitcoin is going to be forgotten.

That's a pretty good analogy. I don't know enough about either to know for sure if that's true, but it seems quite possible. Apple didn't invent the MP3 player, but they arguably perfected it and made tens of billions of dollars on them.

Posted: **Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:48 pm**

brian wrote:I don't think there's much concern about Bitcoin's legitimacy, but it's obviously a bubble. I don't think anyone would argue that. The issue isn't if it's a bubble, but rather when to sell. There no reason to think it couldn't run another 50 to 100 percent before it bursts.

Yeah, it's a bubble just like pretty much anything, just bigger than most. I sold my stock today at $0.60 and it's already down to $0.45. Everyone is talking about it on the netz today, so I'll prob jump back in when people move on.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:05 pm**

Bitcoin is crazy, back under $10,000

Litecoin might be the safer play. it's like silver to Bitcoin's gold.
It's at $88. Maybe it'll be the next to explode.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:25 pm**

wlu_lax6 wrote:(which is based on the promise that there will only be n coins ever created)

hmmm

Posted: **Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:10 pm**

For my own $.02 (or .000000083 bitcoins), I see value in the underlying technology, specifically when it comes to security and automating a lot of middle management functions that are costly. But I don't understand how that value manifests itself in Bitcoin particularly, especially when (as everyone here seems to be saying) the possibility for competing currencies/investments/etc. seems infinite. The best case I've heard for Bitcoin is that it's a useful store of value in places where storing gold or the local currency in a bank is not feasible. But wouldn't that be true of all these other products?

Posted: **Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:44 pm**

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 4990769152

Posted: **Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:00 pm**

rass wrote:https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/938189744990769152

You know, it may be time to start rereading the biblical prophets.

Humans are not worthy of this earth.

Posted: **Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:17 am**

Done got that right.

It's hard to handicap all the possible ways that we'll wreck this place. Climate change is well up there, as more and more ways that this is going wrong come to light. Bitcoin -- who knew? However, my money is on the consequences of advances in genetic manipulation. But there are so many known contenders, as well as the best bet -- the As Yet Unknown.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:05 am**

I took the plunge and bought some bitcoin yesterday morning. The price has since gone up by over 30%. I have no idea what's going on, and am still half-expecting to have this blow up in my face, but I'll take it!

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:08 am**

Sell damnit. Thirty percent isn't good enough?

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:25 am**

It's up $5800 (about 40 percent) just TODAY. Bubble's gotta burst soon?

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:44 pm**

HaulCitgo wrote:Sell damnit. Thirty percent isn't good enough?

I have some friends who were saying last night that they are holding this long-term, "it keeps going up!". Well of course it does, until it falls. I tell people all the time, if you never sell, you're never actually going to make anything.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:05 pm**

Gunpowder wrote:
HaulCitgo wrote:Sell damnit. Thirty percent isn't good enough?

I have some friends who were saying last night that they are holding this long-term, "it keeps going up!". Well of course it does, until it falls. I tell people all the time, if you never sell, you're never actually going to make anything.

I bought a very small amount; I'm definitely not about to liquidate my 401(k) to ride the bitcoin rollercoaster. But I know there are some extreme BTC bulls and I figured I'd make a small bet on the off chance they're right. If nothing else, it's certainly been entertaining given how crazy volatile it's been.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:32 pm**

Joe K wrote:
If nothing else, it's certainly been entertaining given how crazy volatile it's been.

If you can afford the loss, it's worth it for the experience. I ignored Howard and DC, and invested the maximum allowable into my company's Employee Stock Purchase Program. I learned an incredible amount by following the stock, reading all the financial reports, the company prospectus, listening to the earnings calls... Basically, the stock price has almost nothing to do with reality, and when the price does move because of a legit reason, the swings were unbelievably disproportionate. Just realize investing is game, and it's heavily rigged. Sometimes you can tag along with the winners.

(I sold large chunk of my stock a month ago, and I am buying a new car with capital gains). Capitalism!!!

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:45 pm**

So are people actually transacting in Bitcoin right now, like for drugs or porn or whatever else it buys? Or has this bubble completely shut down its use as a currency?

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:32 pm**

Rex wrote:So are people actually transacting in Bitcoin right now, like for drugs or porn or whatever else it buys? Or has this bubble completely shut down its use as a currency?

Presumably you can just buy a lot more drugs and there are some pretty insanely rich drug dealers.

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:00 am**

True, but when the choice is between drugs and a 100% return in a week, it seems pretty simp--well, I guess that's how it goes with drugs.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:27 am**

degenerasian wrote:Bitcoin is crazy, back under $10,000

Litecoin might be the safer play. it's like silver to Bitcoin's gold.
It's at $88. Maybe it'll be the next to explode.

In 9 days Litecoin is now $150

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:41 am**

The Onion's Take

“This volatility may be connected to the fact that we’re dealing with a pile of ones and zeros with no attachment to any bank or government and calling it legal tender, but we can’t say for certain.”

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:52 am**

degenerasian wrote:
degenerasian wrote:Bitcoin is crazy, back under $10,000

Litecoin might be the safer play. it's like silver to Bitcoin's gold.
It's at $88. Maybe it'll be the next to explode.

In 9 days Litecoin is now $150

Litecoin now $325.

The Swamp

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