2018 NFL Season

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Pruitt » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:24 am

A_B wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:05 am
Gunpowder got you.
I'm just so used to the crap of the Bills that I immediately assumed the opposite.

Got me good!

ETA - Bills may win 4 games this year, if McCoy isn;t playing for the Mean Machine by November.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:46 am

Pruitt wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:24 am
A_B wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:05 am
Gunpowder got you.
I'm just so used to the crap of the Bills that I immediately assumed the opposite.

Got me good!

ETA - Bills may win 4 games this year, if McCoy isn;t playing for the Mean Machine by November.


Newton did what an NFL QB has to do quite often when his OL screws up. Josh Allen sits there and takes sacks because he can't figure out where to go with the ball when he's pressured.

I've read so much on Twitter about the Bills protection issues and it's true, their line is hot garbage, but a good QB can often overcome it. If I were a defensive coordinator I would blitz Allen relentlessly.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:52 pm

I don't know if it's fair to judge Allen against Newton or frankly, just about any QB at this point in his development.

The Bills should have realized that he probably wasn't going to be ready to start Game 1. Anyone who watched him in college could have probably told you that. But I saw first-hand what he can do and it's pretty impressive. That isn't to say he's going to be a great QB or even a good one because there's a lot more that goes into it than arm strength or even just throwing the ball in general, but not even Matt Ryan was as impressive in person as Josh Allen to me.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:37 pm

From time to time he looks awesome, but so have a lot of meh QBs with great arms. It's just funny to me that suddenly Bills fans recognize that their offense is extraordinarily shitty, and while the Newtons and Tyrod Taylors and Lamar Jacksons get the "can't read a defense" label, you've got a guy right here with a 42 Wonderlic showing exactly what it means to struggle reading a defense.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:46 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:37 pm
From time to time he looks awesome, but so have a lot of meh QBs with great arms. It's just funny to me that suddenly Bills fans recognize that their offense is extraordinarily shitty, and while the Newtons and Tyrod Taylors and Lamar Jacksons get the "can't read a defense" label, you've got a guy right here with a 42 Wonderlic showing exactly what it means to struggle reading a defense.
For sure, especially when you start getting into the racial component of that kind of criticism against those guys. I thought Lamar Jackson, especially at the point in the draft when he was taken, was probably one of the best picks of the draft and I hate saying that because I hate the fucking Ravens.

I don't how much value should be placed on a QB's ability to read collegiate defenses, mostly because like everything else it's a night and day difference between what your average college DC is doing and what is done at the pro level. I think very few "average" fans have any kind of real understanding of how much better the schemes and coaching are between even the highest levels of college and the pros.

If Josh Allen (theoretically, I never read a "real" scouting report on him) gets points for his ability to read Air Force or UNLV's defense, so what? It doesn't really project to the pro level no more than someone's 40 time does (dudes in the NFL are obviously much faster than LBs at Air Force as well).

Allen was drafted where he was essentially for two reasons (well, three if you count that he's white). He's tall and he can throw a football harder than anyone other than maybe about four or five people on the planet. Buffalo's coaches hope they can fill in the rest. Maybe they're right. Or maybe not. But he was impressive as fuck in person, that's all I was saying. You could almost literally hear the football flying through the air when he throws it even in a stadium that had about 10,000 people in it.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by sancarlos » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:30 pm

As you’ll remember, Josh Allen wasn’t even the 1st team all-conference quarterback in the Mountain West last season.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Pruitt » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:03 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:37 pm
From time to time he looks awesome, but so have a lot of meh QBs with great arms. It's just funny to me that suddenly Bills fans recognize that their offense is extraordinarily shitty, and while the Newtons and Tyrod Taylors and Lamar Jacksons get the "can't read a defense" label, you've got a guy right here with a 42 Wonderlic showing exactly what it means to struggle reading a defense.
Believe me - Bills fans have known that their offence has been shitty.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Rush2112 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:16 pm

sancarlos wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:30 pm
As you’ll remember, Josh Allen wasn’t even the 1st team all-conference quarterback in the Mountain West last season.
He wasn't 2nd either. That said WYO was way the hell down last year. They didn't have any offensive players make all-conference.

Oh, and CSU is losing Friday. Hopefully by a large margin.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:44 am

brian wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:46 pm
Gunpowder wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:37 pm
From time to time he looks awesome, but so have a lot of meh QBs with great arms. It's just funny to me that suddenly Bills fans recognize that their offense is extraordinarily shitty, and while the Newtons and Tyrod Taylors and Lamar Jacksons get the "can't read a defense" label, you've got a guy right here with a 42 Wonderlic showing exactly what it means to struggle reading a defense.
For sure, especially when you start getting into the racial component of that kind of criticism against those guys. I thought Lamar Jackson, especially at the point in the draft when he was taken, was probably one of the best picks of the draft and I hate saying that because I hate the fucking Ravens.

I don't how much value should be placed on a QB's ability to read collegiate defenses, mostly because like everything else it's a night and day difference between what your average college DC is doing and what is done at the pro level. I think very few "average" fans have any kind of real understanding of how much better the schemes and coaching are between even the highest levels of college and the pros.

If Josh Allen (theoretically, I never read a "real" scouting report on him) gets points for his ability to read Air Force or UNLV's defense, so what? It doesn't really project to the pro level no more than someone's 40 time does (dudes in the NFL are obviously much faster than LBs at Air Force as well).

Allen was drafted where he was essentially for two reasons (well, three if you count that he's white). He's tall and he can throw a football harder than anyone other than maybe about four or five people on the planet. Buffalo's coaches hope they can fill in the rest. Maybe they're right. Or maybe not. But he was impressive as fuck in person, that's all I was saying. You could almost literally hear the football flying through the air when he throws it even in a stadium that had about 10,000 people in it.
I don't think his race had much to do with where he was drafted...the Jamarcus Russells of the world also get drafted high. Just in the fan reactions and excuse making and salivating over a guy who most of the time actually keeps a play from reaching it's potential.

And I'm not so sure that it's night and day. NFL teams have been borrowing heavily from the college game for years and that's one reason why it's been so "easy" to find a QB recently....it's just simply easier to play QB. Doug Pederson, Andy Reid, McVay, etc. are basically running college offenses. Buffalo is not, and Allen essentially went to the Wyoming of the NFL. No employer would expect a college graduate to be a finished product, but they do see college as showing that someone can learn a certain type of task. If you can't do college math, why would an engineering firm hire you? I see Allen in a similar light. If you can't read a college defense, what makes anyone think you'll be able to pick that up in the pros? It's possible because he's such an insane athlete/thrower, but I'd bet against it.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by sancarlos » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:34 am

Rush2112 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:16 pm
Oh, and CSU is losing Friday. Hopefully by a large margin.
You don't have to get hopped up for the game. If the Sheep couldn't beat Hawaii, I already know it's going to be a very long season.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:48 am

Here's a novel way for an NFL player to get arrested.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by GoodKarma » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:30 am

brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:48 am
Here's a novel way for an NFL player to get arrested.

Additional plot line for Hard Knocks next week
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:04 pm

I predict Green Bay is going to deeply regret this contract extension. Rodgers is already showing signs of wear and his game is entirely predicated on being able to move around to make plays. Once that goes...

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:09 pm

Good god, this is his age-35 season coming up. If the Packers had him under contract for two more years why the fuck would they extend him beyond that. This is borderline malpractice.

ETA: I honestly thought he was like 32. Unless this is only like a two-year extension I don't see what Green Bay is thinking here.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Joe K » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:12 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:09 pm
Good god, this is his age-35 season coming up. If the Packers had him under contract for two more years why the fuck would they extend him beyond that. This is borderline malpractice.

ETA: I honestly thought he was like 32. Unless this is only like a two-year extension I don't see what Green Bay is thinking here.
Maybe he started working with Alex Guerrero.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by L-Jam3 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:16 pm

Remember though that Rodgers stayed in the garage for his first three pro seasons. That's three years worth of getting the shit kicked out of him every Sunday that he wasn't exposed to.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:29 pm

L-Jam3 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:16 pm
Remember though that Rodgers stayed in the garage for his first three pro seasons. That's three years worth of getting the shit kicked out of him every Sunday that he wasn't exposed to.
Maybe, but he's taken plenty of abuse since then and missed the better part of two of the last five seasons. We're not talking about a statue-esque QB like Brady or Manning or even Brees here. Once Rodgers loses that ability to improvise he's basically done. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but why are you going to sign a guy to the largest contract in NFL history that starts with his age 37 season?
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:36 pm

Extension is 4 yrs, $134M with a little more than $100M guaranteed. I guess GB's hands were tied to a certain extent, but on the other hand that's a shitton of money to pay a guy for the second half of his 30s.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Ryan » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:37 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:29 pm
Once Rodgers loses that ability to improvise he's basically done.
This seems wrong

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:44 pm

Now that he's dating Danica Patrick, he'll look good, but never finish higher than 15th. #NASCARHumor
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by GoodKarma » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:53 pm

GoodKarma wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:30 am
brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:48 am
Here's a novel way for an NFL player to get arrested.

Additional plot line for Hard Knocks next week
Details on this are amazing...Kendricks turned a $80,000 brokerage account into $1.2 million in just five months!!!! (some reports have said it was over 2 years but the charging document says between July-November 2014).

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:59 pm

One thing that should be said about Rodgers deal is that I forgot about the way cap hits are backloaded in NFL contracts so this does give GB some temporary cap relief, though that's only going to last a couple of years before you have an age 38 QB with a $38M cap hit.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:16 pm

Cap hell as a thing seems to have gone away, though. The cap has exploded so high and the minimum salaries have not and it just doesn't seem to kill teams anymore. I would probably try to do the draft a QB every couple years thing but that goes out the window when you have by many accounts the best player to ever play the most important position on the field....if they messed with him, and he wanted to screw them back, he could hold out and easily get like $40 mil this year.

Dallas was the closest to getting into cap hell recently until they lucked out with Dak.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:18 pm

L-Jam3 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:16 pm
Remember though that Rodgers stayed in the garage for his first three pro seasons. That's three years worth of getting the shit kicked out of him every Sunday that he wasn't exposed to.
His bones are still 35, though. It's not really a wear and tear thing with him. Brady rarely gets hit but if he gets drilled like this:



...he might break. That being said I would have paid Rodgers years ago before letting slapdicks like Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins set the market into the stratosphere. The NFL structure will not change until a top QB decides that he wants to join the resistance, and Rodgers fell in line too.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:21 pm

Ryan wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:37 pm
brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:29 pm
Once Rodgers loses that ability to improvise he's basically done.
This seems wrong
It is. Look at Ben Roethlisberger, for example. The bigger threat is that Rodgers' arm goes, not his athleticism.

Don't get me wrong, Rodgers' improv was the only thing that kept the 2014 Packers afloat...but he doesn't have to move like a 20 year old to do what he does. Teams don't blitz AR or Brees or Brady or other top QBs all that often because these guys will shred them into bits.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm

That's a pretty good point. GB could have probably given Rodgers $30M a year through his age 39 season as recently as a year ago. Waiting really just cost them about $15M in guaranteed, real money and probably about $25M in cap hits (spread out, of course). Of course, since their hick, Trump-loving fans really own the team I guess it'll only cost them another MAGA hat or two each.

They knew they were going to have to pay him so not sure why they waited. He got this deal despite not having a collarbone left so he was probably always gonna get paid.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm

An example of a guy who will probably cease to be great when he loses the elite 'improv' ability is Carson Wentz at this point (and Josh Allen, if he becomes competent). Then again, you could say that about young Ben Roethlisberger and he developed. Wentz is great because he can beat a blitz by avoiding it with crazy athleticism and buy enough time for someone to get wide open downfield, and then he can get the ball there. He doesn't beat blitzes by diagnosing them and going where the blitzers vacated.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:26 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm
That's a pretty good point. GB could have probably given Rodgers $30M a year through his age 39 season as recently as a year ago. Waiting really just cost them about $15M in guaranteed, real money and probably about $25M in cap hits (spread out, of course). Of course, since their hick, Trump-loving fans really own the team I guess it'll only cost them another MAGA hat or two each.

They knew they were going to have to pay him so not sure why they waited. He got this deal despite not having a collarbone left so he was probably always gonna get paid.
He was essentially going to get paid what he wanted to be paid (within reason). Tom Brady could have done the same thing but decided not to (ostensibly to save money for the rest of his team, which I can respek).

People crush Florio a lot but I like his suggestion for a guy like Rodgers to ask for say $15 mil and then whatever is left in cap space at the end of the year. Force your team to use that money to give you help.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:30 pm

I'm sure that kind of deal is not allowed under the CBA, but it does make sense. Brady's team-friendly contract don't come without heat though since that's another reason he's hated around the league amongst the players, especially the guys more involved in the NFLPA.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Sabo » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:38 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:36 pm
Extension is 4 yrs, $134M with a little more than $100M guaranteed. I guess GB's hands were tied to a certain extent, but on the other hand that's a shitton of money to pay a guy for the second half of his 30s.
To me, it's even more amazing the Packers are willing to live with DeShone Kizer and his 50.9 completion percentage this preseason as Rodgers' backup QB.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by brian » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:43 pm

Sabo wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:38 pm
brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:36 pm
Extension is 4 yrs, $134M with a little more than $100M guaranteed. I guess GB's hands were tied to a certain extent, but on the other hand that's a shitton of money to pay a guy for the second half of his 30s.
To me, it's even more amazing the Packers are willing to live with DeShone Kizer and his 50.9 completion percentage this preseason as Rodgers' backup QB.
When Rodgers when down and it was obvious Brett Hundley sucked even by backup QB standards, the Packers could have possibly saved their season by signing Kaepernick, but the MAGAts in the fanbase never would have stood (ha!) for that.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by HaulCitgo » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:48 pm

Pretty much everything you said about Wentz applies to Rodgers. He very definitely needs his wheels. Can only assume he just doesnt see the field they way you would expect for all the accolades since the guy rarely gets rid of the ball on time. Maybe thats part system (doubt it) and maybe its him trying to stretch the field (possibly) but I just dont see him in the pocket on time. The strengths are kind of the same as Favre. First and foremost, a gunslinger mentality with the athleticism to extend plays so he can unleash the cannon with no conscience.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Joe K » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:23 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:48 pm
Pretty much everything you said about Wentz applies to Rodgers. He very definitely needs his wheels. Can only assume he just doesnt see the field they way you would expect for all the accolades since the guy rarely gets rid of the ball on time.
Pretty remarkable that Rodgers is #1 all-time in QB rating, ANY/A and interception rate considering that he doesn’t see the field well.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by tennbengal » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:32 pm

Work took me north today so I was able to finally divert to Delaware Park - $20 on bengals over 6.5 wins - only pays $32.10 but that line is absurd so wanted to put something down. Also bengals are a ridiculous 50-1 to win the AFC so that $20 bet is gonna net me $1000...
Last edited by tennbengal on Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by mister d » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:59 pm

Can't wait until the Bengals lose the AFC title game on a quadruple personal foul.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:01 pm

Sabo wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:38 pm
brian wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:36 pm
Extension is 4 yrs, $134M with a little more than $100M guaranteed. I guess GB's hands were tied to a certain extent, but on the other hand that's a shitton of money to pay a guy for the second half of his 30s.
To me, it's even more amazing the Packers are willing to live with DeShone Kizer and his 50.9 completion percentage this preseason as Rodgers' backup QB.
Kizer is so much better than Hundley. Hundley arguably shouldn't even be in the NFL, while Kizer might look passable with WRs that didn't sabotage him regularly.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:14 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:48 pm
Pretty much everything you said about Wentz applies to Rodgers. He very definitely needs his wheels. Can only assume he just doesnt see the field they way you would expect for all the accolades since the guy rarely gets rid of the ball on time. Maybe thats part system (doubt it) and maybe its him trying to stretch the field (possibly) but I just dont see him in the pocket on time. The strengths are kind of the same as Favre. First and foremost, a gunslinger mentality with the athleticism to extend plays so he can unleash the cannon with no conscience.

Rodgers is rolling out at a jogging pace and buying time. Wentz is shaking 3 guys off and hurdling somebody.

Here's a highlight of a good game from Rodgers with maybe three mobile plays? And one of them is just knowing when to move by feel rather than obvious athleticism.




Carson Wentz doesn't run around all that often but, that's where his big plays come from:



Wentz really isn't that accurate, and he makes a lot of off-target throws and bad decisions when he doesn't move. But when he does evade the rush through his athleticism, he hits a 50 yard throw downfield. It's right out of young Ben Roethlisberger's playbook.

Speaking of Favre, Favre could still do it at 40 because it's not about speed.

Last edited by Gunpowder on Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Gunpowder
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:17 pm

Joe K wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:23 pm
HaulCitgo wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:48 pm
Pretty much everything you said about Wentz applies to Rodgers. He very definitely needs his wheels. Can only assume he just doesnt see the field they way you would expect for all the accolades since the guy rarely gets rid of the ball on time.
Pretty remarkable that Rodgers is #1 all-time in QB rating, ANY/A and interception rate considering that he doesn’t see the field well.
And really, "on time" means before you are pressured. If there's no one in your face, why throw just for the sake of throwing? Tom Brady will hold the ball forever if you let him.

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But if you start getting close, it's out.
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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Gunpowder » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:19 pm

Here's a situation where Rodgers momentarily learned how to quickly see the field. (at 2:52)

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Re: 2018 NFL Season

Post by Pruitt » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:43 pm

Am I wrong to be outraged that the Browns cut Kendricks the day it comes out that he made cash off insider trading - yet the same team kept Manziel on the team after he had smacked his girlfriend around a couple of times (plus drunk driving)?

What a bunch of fucking hypocrites. How much money did Haslam make in nefarious ways?
"Maybe he shit out his memory." - Mr. D

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