ESPN Insider Access

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Keg
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ESPN Insider Access

Post by Keg »

Can someone please post the following article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/n ... idates-mlb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Chicago Cubs manager Dale Sveum caused a stir the other day by suggesting that first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Starlin Castro could be sent to the minors if they didn't ... well, I'm not sure what they are supposed to do, because Castro is hitting better than the median National League shortstop and Rizzo has twice as many homers (six) as any other NL first baseman.

Neither guy is lighting the league on fire, but threatening them with a demotion to the minors seems a little draconian, and maybe a sign that the manager's a little in over his head.

But the immodest proposal brings up a better question -- which players around the majors indeed might be better served by a demotion to Triple-A? And which minor leaguers might be in line for an imminent call-up?

Demotion candidates


Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Chicago Cubs

Rizzo's stat line this season is heavy on secondary skills; he's walking, and hitting for power, but not making much contact or hitting for average, with a very low BABIP (.171). For most hitters, I wouldn't be concerned with a lower-than-normal BABIP or contact rate in a small sample. In Rizzo's case, however, the Cubs appear to have altered his swing, getting his hands loaded lower and farther back than last year so that he's swinging more up through the ball, which should generate more power but would absolutely reduce contact and lead to more popups, all of which is true so far.

I've been told this kind of swing reflects Sveum's philosophy of hitting, but in Rizzo's case, I didn't think anything in his swing last season needed fixing. The Cubs should let him revert to his 2012 mechanics, which produced a successful half-year in the majors with a good contact rate and plenty of power for a 22-year-old.



Aaron Hicks | CF, Minnesota Twins

The Twins knew they were taking a risk by promoting Hicks two levels and making him their Opening Day center fielder, especially given his history of slow starts, but he's 3-for-51 so far, all singles, with 21 punchouts, and has cost the team nearly a win -- minus-0.9 WAR per FanGraphs -- with his performance so far.

Hicks is struggling against fastballs and doesn't have a hit yet off an off-speed pitch. He has always been a patient hitter, but pitch recognition has been a constant issue; he's required lengthy adjustment times at each level. He's the Twins' center fielder of the future, but there has to be a point where continuing to run him out there to fail becomes counterproductive -- he's hurting the team but also is unable to make the adjustments he needs to develop as a player.

Right now, he's walking more, but hasn't converted those hitters' counts into hits. I'd give him until early May before pulling the plug on the experiment, but there has to be, if nothing else, more hard contact for them to continue running him out there.



Jesus Montero | C, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners probably could demote half of their lineup without getting much argument from anyone, including their fans, but they have a few players who at least merit a more serious look at this point.

Montero is the easy call here: If he's not going to play every day, they should send him to Tacoma, where he can get regular at-bats. He's not a catcher -- that delusion needs to end -- but he should be the everyday DH somewhere, which could happen in Seattle if the Mariners would just give up on Justin Smoak and his .236 slugging percentage already.

ESPN Insider contributor Dave Cameron wrote about Smoak last weekend at USS Mariner. I have little to add other than that Smoak did have power in college and the Cape Cod League, but hasn't shown it in pro ball, losing most of his bat speed in the process.

Whatever the cause, the power's gone and it's not coming back, meaning the Mariners need to move on. Designating Smoak for assignment, putting Kendrys Morales at first base and putting Montero at DH at least would get Montero regular at-bats.



Dustin Ackley | 2B, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' other main problem child at the moment is Ackley, who is hitting .197 and has become a cipher at the plate himself, less patient than ever and trying to pull pitches on the outer half rather than using the whole field. For a player with the bat speed Ackley had out of college to be beaten so easily by velocity is embarrassing, not just for him but also for the major league coaching staff.

There's been a surge of interest from Mariners fans among you about Nick Franklin, who is off to a very hot start in Triple-A Tacoma after a weak 64-game stint there last season. Although Franklin might be a short-term upgrade, you can't demote Ackley, who has a year-plus of major league time, without a purpose: Punitive demotions make no sense, so if Ackley's going to Tacoma, there has to be an admonition to work the count more and go to the opposite field.

In the meantime, it's great to see that the switch-hitting Franklin has walked more than he's struck out in a tiny sample, but another few weeks in Triple-A isn't hurting his development, either, and there's still the unresolved issue of his huge trouble hitting from the right side.

Promotion candidates


Nolan Arenado | 3B, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is, superficially, off to a tremendous start in Triple-A, hitting .414/.431/.759 so far for Colorado Springs. However, he has played 16 games to date, all in extreme hitters' parks, eight at home, four in Reno (4,400 feet above sea level) and four in Las Vegas (2,180 feet up), making that stat line rather suspect. This isn't to say that he can't hit, but that he's just raking in places where we'd expect a decent prospect to rake.

The Rockies are getting no offense from third base right now -- Chris Nelson is hitting .269/.316/.327 -- so it's not like Arenado has a high bar to clear in Denver. Unless they're holding him down for reasons related to the questions about his makeup and effort level from last season, I'd be in favor of seeing him called up sooner rather than later.



Zach Lee | RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' rotation has gone from an area of strength to a Superfund cleanup site in the span of about 10 days because of injuries, some unpredictable (Zack Greinke) and some predictable (Chad Billingsley). They don't have an ideal starting pitcher to recall right now, unfortunately.

Lee is their top prospect, faring well in Double-A but still showing stuff that's closer to average than plus; he's succeeding thanks to good command. He would compete in the majors right now but wouldn't blow anyone away and would have to be added to the 40-man roster to be recalled. The Dodgers could recall right-hander Matt Magill, who has managed to keep his ERA and strikeout rate respectable while pitching in Triple-A Albuquerque but whose walk rate, a touch high last year, has spiked this season. That's not the pitcher whom you want to give a spot start when your pitching staff is already depleted.

Magill's already on the 40-man, but Lee is probably the better bet for success in a season when the Dodgers are trying to win, even with the disadvantages of recalling him before he's fully ready.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thank you, ser.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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De nada.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Can someone please hook it up with this one:

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=9395890" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The Green Bay Packers have not had a 1,000-yard rusher since Ryan Grant broke the plateau in 2009. The yardage of their leading rusher has steadily declined since then, from the 703 yards that Brandon Jackson managed in 2010 to the scant 464 that Alex Green ran for last season. The Packers finally found that trend untenable and spent a pair of draft picks on running backs in 2013.

With the second-to-last pick of the second round, they added Alabama mauler Eddie Lacy, before trading up in the fourth round to snag UCLA's Johnathan Franklin. Will these additions finally give Green Bay a consistent running game?


The Packers have not shown much variance in the amount they've run the ball over the past four seasons. When Grant was leading the Packers to a 14.5 percent DVOA run offense in 2009, second-best in the NFL, they carried the ball 438 times. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) Despite dropping to an average of 1.4 percent rushing DVOA over the past three seasons, the Packers continued to run the ball at about the same pace, 416.3 times a season. However, they had just one back qualify for our leaderboards with a positive DVOA in that time: Grant, in 2011, had a 2.9 percent DVOA. So the Pack have been bad, but it hasn't deterred their play calling. One would imagine the two rookies will get their touches in Year 1.

Another surprise? As a whole, the Packers' run offense was regarded as about average by DVOA, despite the lack of a bell cow runner in the backfield. There are a few reasons for that.

Injuries have haunted the Packers' backs over the past few years, whether it was Grant or Green, Cedric Benson or James Starks. According to our statistic that measures the impact of injuries, adjusted games lost (AGL), Green Bay finished as the third-most injured team last season at running back. Only Pittsburgh and Jacksonville lost more games to injury at that position.

Second, Aaron Rodgers is a phenomenal running quarterback when he takes off on scrambles. Rodgers has finished in the top six of quarterback rushing DYAR for three straight seasons, and because he tends to take off 40 to 50 times a year, that nudges the overall running offense up.

Also, there is some evidence that a good running DVOA can be created by a spread offense that keeps defenses from stacking the box. The Patriots, for example, had their best run offense DVOA in recent years in 2010 -- before they drafted Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. That wasn't because the actual pieces of their run game were better -- nobody is confusing Danny Woodhead for the kind of back that dominates a game -- but because they were able to take advantage of defenses playing the pass. The Packers, to some extent, have done the same thing.

What's all this mean? Essentially that Green Bay had a passable running attack despite the poor production of its running backs, not because of their skill. Lacy and Franklin will not have to clear a high bar to provide an upgrade in Green Bay. And they might actually get some help from a much-maligned offensive line.

Despite the tendency to dump on the Packers' line for the lack of a ground game, our adjusted line yards metric believes that the line is doing a better job than the backs. The failure in the ground game falls on the running backs' inability to generate yards at the second level of the defense and beyond.

In 2009, the last year the Packers had a great ground game, we measured the Green Bay offensive line as being third-best in power situations (runs on third or fourth down with 2 yards or fewer to go, as well as first or second downs with goal-to-go from the 1- or 2-yard line). It was also second-best in stuffed rate (percentage of times a back is tackled behind the line of scrimmage). However, in second-level yards (5-10 yards from the line of scrimmage) and open-field yards (beyond 10 yards) Green Bay finished 26th and 17th in 2009. Flash forward to 2012, and the split remains virtually the same. The Packers finished seventh in power success and 13th in stuffed percentage, but 29th in second-level yards and dead last in open-field yards. The pattern illustrates that the Green Bay backs simply haven't been explosive or agile enough in the open field to make the first tackler miss, let alone the next one.

That shows up again when we look at our broken-tackle counts. We marked Green with six broken tackles last season, Starks with five, Benson with four, DuJuan Harris with three, and Grant and John Kuhn with one each. That's 20 broken tackles in 365 attempts by running backs. Compare that to receiver Randall Cobb, who had 13 broken tackles in 90 touches on his own. Most of the time, he didn't even have the luxury of turning around to see where the defenders were before trying to make them miss.

Lacy and Franklin should be able to make backs miss in the open field. Both of them did very well in STATS | ICE's broken-tackle metrics. Moreover, they should be a big help in the red zone. Green, who saw a team-leading 12 of the 40 red zone carries last season, had a minus-44.1 percent DVOA on those carries. Lacy and Franklin, however, are both the kind of powerful interior runners who can generate yardage in tight creases with pure physicality.

On the surface, Lacy and Franklin might not change the Green Bay running game much when it comes to consistent runs that keep the offense on schedule and the defense semi-honest. But over the past few seasons, this offense has really missed having a back capable of turning a small gain into a big play or bulldozing somebody at the goal line. Now it has two ball carriers who can do exactly that.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thank you, Chedda.

I am in the middle of my dynasty draft and ended up with both Lacy and Franklin.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Are there free Keith Law alternatives on other sites that you read? I basically only want to read his stuff about prospects in a trade. I can't stomach the idea of paying for Insider again even if I get another good deal. ESPN jacks our cable rates, bombards us with ads, and then wants us to spend some more.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Shirley »

How about this one gents?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... basketball" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(By the way, my answer is no. The last two Sampson teams were stronger than this UVA team. It was probably a more competitive landscape back then though, with teams like the Worthy/Jordan/Perkins UNC, Ewing's Georgetown, NC State's Cardiac Pack, and Phi Slamma Jamma.)
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Counting ACC tournament action, Virginia has now won 24 of its past 26 games against conference opponents. That nets out to a .923 win percentage, so even as my colleague Jeff Goodman continues to doggedly pick against the Cavaliers in advance of every game (just kidding, Jeff!) these numbers do compel me to ask a question:

Is this the greatest Virginia team in the program's history?

Thanks to the superb archive of box scores maintained by the good people in UVA's media relations office, we can address this question with some degree of confidence. Before we dive into the analytics from yesteryear, however, a rather more sweeping reminder is in order about the storied Virginia teams of the early 1980s.

"
Playing against Ralph Sampson was like being a kid and playing against your dad in the driveway. You had no chance.
"
-- Jay Bilas

Between 1980 and 1983, the Cavaliers earned three consecutive NCAA tournament No. 1 seeds and posted a 37-5 record in regular-season ACC play. This run coincided with Ralph Sampson's sophomore, junior and senior seasons.

Sampson played the college game as a 7-foot-4 athlete, and I can't help feeling this distinction is too easily elided when we talk about the former Virginia star. He wasn't just a "7-footer;" he was 7-foot-4. The difference in height between Sampson and Jahlil Okafor is the same as that between Okafor and Jerian Grant.

What was it like to play against someone with Sampson's size and ability? Fortunately, one of my co-workers can answer that question. Jay Bilas arrived at Duke as a freshman in 1982-83, and in the first ACC game of Jay's career, his Blue Devils faced Virginia.

I called Jay to see if by chance he remembered that game all these years later, and before I could even finish saying hello he told me this:

"Playing against Ralph Sampson was like being a kid and playing against your dad in the driveway. You had no chance."

The box score from that game backs up Jay's memory. Sampson recorded a 36-14 double-double against Mike Krzyzewski's team, and keep in mind the game was at Duke.

Armed with our proper understanding of Sampson's impact, let's consider the great Virginia teams coached by Terry Holland in the early 1980s. It turns out each of these three teams left a distinct legacy, in part because the sport itself was experiencing enormous changes from year to year.


1980-81: Breakthrough
Ralph Sampson
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Ralph Sampson was the face of college basketball dominance in the early 1980s.
Entering the 1980-81 season, Holland's career record in Charlottesville was a respectable but hardly earth-shattering 105-70. Nevertheless, things were clearly looking up at UVA. The Cavaliers were coming off an NIT title, star wing Jeff Lamp was entering his senior season, and as a sophomore, Sampson was poised to make the leap from great to unreal.

The result was a 23-0 start (a mark today's group of Cavaliers is chasing), a 13-1 record in ACC play, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and a trip to the 1981 Final Four in Philadelphia. The Hoos fell to North Carolina in the national semifinals, but this was plainly a dominant Virginia team. Judging by the box scores, it would appear UVA outscored its ACC opponents by 0.20 points per possession, a margin similar to what we're seeing from the Cavaliers in 2014-15.

(A quick note on the numbers. I use weasel terms such as "it would appear" because box scores dating from the period usually didn't track offensive rebounds, and without that information, we're forced to make projections on things such as the number of possessions in a game or season. I trust my projections are sound enough, but inevitably, they're one step removed from the numbers we throw around with such casual familiarity today.)

With two years still remaining in Sampson's career, it was apparent the once mediocre Cavaliers were going to be a power in the ACC for the foreseeable future. Rival coaches drew the same conclusion, and in an era (just barely) before any shot clock, many of them decided to employ one strategy in particular against Virginia: Go slow. Go really slow.

1981-82: Ice age
On paper, Sampson's junior season was a continuation of the success Virginia had enjoyed the previous year. The Cavaliers went 30-4 (12-2 in the ACC) and earned another No. 1 seed. Even though Holland's team lost to UAB in the Sweet 16, that game carries with it with one of the larger asterisks in NCAA tournament history.

In what today would be an inconceivable pairing, top-seeded UVA played the No. 4-seed Blazers on UAB's home court in Birmingham. (Seriously, imagine that happening in 2015. Twitter would explode, lawsuits would be filed, and the selection committee would have to enter the witness protection program.) Sampson posted a 19-21 double-double against the Blazers, but the Hoos lost 68-66. There's little or no shame attached to that result, surely.

Nevertheless, it's difficult to assess how good that 1981-82 team really was because the sport itself was experiencing something of a crisis. By my estimation, the mean tempo for Virginia in conference play that season was 52 possessions per 40 minutes, which means the average UVA contest was slower than any ACC game we've seen so far in 2014-15.

The Cavaliers' per-possession scoring margin dipped significantly in conference play that season, and that should come as no surprise. Opponents were sitting on the ball with the avowed intention of creating close games. For example, Maryland beat Virginia in College Park 47-46, and that was with an overtime session. In a game that likely had just 48 possessions, my colleague Adrian Branch scored a rather incredible 29 points on 12-of-17 shooting for the Terrapins.

Suffice it to say by 1982, the code had been cracked on how to stay in the game with Sampson or any other feared opponent. It quickly became clear that fans, TV networks and advertisers really hated that code.

The 1982 ACC tournament became the flash point. Maryland and NC State played a first-round game that went to halftime at 13-11. Then, in the nationally televised title game between top-ranked North Carolina and No. 3 Virginia, the Tar Heels held the ball from the 7:34 mark of the second half until 28 seconds remained in the game.

"A coach thinks to win a game under the rules," Carolina coach Dean Smith said afterward. UNC won the ACC title that day 47-45, but the college game's long-held resistance to the shot clock was transformed almost overnight from conventional wisdom into minority opinion. That May, the ACC agreed to experiment with both a shot clock and a 3-point line.

1982-83: The upset of the century
It turns out my friend Jay started his college career at a time of tremendous ferment in the sport. There were at least three different 3-point distances in use nationally in 1982-83, and the shot clock arrangements deployed by various conferences that year exhibited similar diversity.

Ralph Sampson, Tony Randolph
AP Photo
The Cavs' loss to Division II Chaminade is one of the most confounding defeats in sports history.
In the ACC, for example, a 3-point line laid down at 19 feet, 9 inches was in use for conference games only. In ACC contests that season, the shot clock ran to 30 seconds but was turned off for the game's final four minutes.

Few teams benefited from the rule changes more than Virginia. The tempo of the Cavaliers' conference games shot up by a now unimaginable 27 percent in just one year. (Today, it's news if a team's pace registers a 10 percent uptick.) Freed up to attack opposing teams in games that often ran to 70 possessions or more, UVA averaged no fewer than 89 points per contest in conference play.

On a tempo-free basis, this was the best offense of the Sampson era, one that scored an estimated 1.17 points per possession against ACC opponents. The new-look go-go Cavaliers went 29-5 and reached the Elite Eight as a No. 1 seed, where Holland's men lost 63-62 to Jim Valvano and eventual national champion NC State.

But that 1982-83 UVA team is remembered above all else for being on the wrong end of the score in what has justly been termed the upset of the century: Chaminade's 77-72 victory over the top-ranked Cavaliers on Dec. 23, 1982, in Hawaii.

The Hoos arrived in Hawaii by way of Japan, where just four days earlier they had wrapped up a two-game swing against Houston and Utah. Moreover, during his time abroad, Sampson had contracted a virus and was limited to just 22 total minutes in the two games in Japan.

Blame the Cavaliers' loss to Chaminade on jet lag if you wish, but -- unlike the pairing in the 1982 NCAA tournament -- Virginia's schedule was at least self-inflicted. You also have to give credit to the Silverswords: Chaminade ran from the opening tip, and it worked.

Sampson, Othell Wilson and Ricky Stokes committed six turnovers apiece, and as a team, the Hoos gave the ball away 25 times in an 80-possession game. (That means UVA's turnover percentage was a whopping 30.1. No weasel words here, by the way -- someone in the gym that night counted offensive boards. Anonymous scorekeeper, I salute you.) Arguably, the heroes for the Silverswords were leading scorer Tony Randolph (19 points on 9-of-12 shooting) and starting guard Tim Dunham, who recorded five steals.

Virginia shot poorly at the line (58 percent), but then again so did the Silverswords (63). Perhaps the real surprise was Holland's men sent an NAIA team to the line 33 times. Fatigue did seem to catch up with the Cavaliers in the second half, as the home team went 11-of-19 from the floor to seal the win.

The best Virginia team ... so far
The season after Sampson graduated, Virginia returned to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed by -- somewhat ironically -- slowing the pace to a crawl during its NCAA tournament run. That 1983-84 team effectively brought down the curtain on the most successful four-year run Virginia basketball has ever had -- two Final Fours, three Elite Eights, four Sweet 16s and a .768 win percentage in ACC play. Out of that golden age of Cavalier hoops, I know which team I'd take.

I say the 1980-81 group was the greatest Virginia team in program history. The Cavaliers had not only Sampson but also Lamp (the No. 15 pick in the 1981 NBA draft), plus UVA posted a per-possession scoring margin close to what we've rapidly grown accustomed to seeing from Tony Bennett's men. Unlike the kids nowadays, the Hoos from 34 years ago had to get that job done against opponents such as James Worthy, Sam Perkins, Al Wood, Thurl Bailey, Sidney Lowe, Albert King, Buck Williams, Frank Johnson and Larry Nance.

So in a time-travel-enabled game between Virginia teams labeled Now and Then, I'll take Then. I respect Darion Atkins and Mike Tobey very much, but I have to believe 1981-variety Ralph Sampson would be a pretty tough matchup for them.

Then again, the 2014-15 Cavaliers aren't finished just yet, and a national title would certainly constitute a strong counter-argument. I'm open to persuasion.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thank you, very much, sir. I'm gonna read it right now.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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http://www.espnfc.com/barclays-premier- ... ekend-bets" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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After a brief break to make way for the FA Cup last weekend, the Premier League returns with some huge matches in the next few days, notably the clash between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford.

At the top of the table Chelsea need to recover from the Champions League exit at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain while Manchester City travel to Burnley with one eye on their European fixture against Barcelona next week.

After registering three winning picks from four selections in the Champions League this week, here's a look at our best value picks among this weekend's Premier League fixtures.

Manchester United (home) vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Asian handicap: Man Utd -0.5 (-108) vs. Tottenham +0.5 (+101)
3-way line: Man Utd -108 / Tottenham +327 / Draw +276
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 57 percent United
Total: 2.75 (Over +100, Under -109)

The Prem is more important than ever to Manchester United now following their exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Arsenal on Monday. It was yet another disappointing performance from Louis van Gaal's side, who handed Arsenal the winning goal via an underhit backpass, which presented former United striker Danny Welbeck with a simple scoring opportunity that clinched victory for the Gunners.

The Prem is now the only competition United are in, so claiming a top-four spot in order to qualify for next season's Champions League is imperative. It is something of a miracle United go into this weekend's fixtures in fourth place in the standings considering the confused, patchy performances that have been such a strong feature of their season. United will struggle to continue to pick up points at the rate they have done so far (1.9 points per game) unless they significantly improve their standard of play.

Tottenham are also chasing a top-four spot so there's no doubt Spurs will be motivated and focused when they arrive at Old Trafford this weekend. You can make the case that Tottenham have been the better of these two teams since the turn of the year. And after a run of 17 defeats and five draws in 22 Prem fixtures against United, Tottenham's head-to-head form has improved in the past couple of years -- they've won two and drawn three of the last five meetings between the sides. I am happy to back Tottenham to avoid defeat.

The pick: Tottenham +0.5 Asian handicap (+101)

Burnley (home) vs. Manchester City
Asian handicap: Burnley +1.25 (-111) vs. Man City -1.25 (+104)
3-way line: Burnley +715 / Man City -223 / Draw +383
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 83 percent City
Total: 3 (Over +110, Under -121)

The degree to which European fixtures affect a team's domestic form is a debate that regularly exercises bettors. Some say midweek continental fixtures have no impact on how a team performs at the weekend; others argue that the distraction of an upcoming European game or the fatigue that follows a continental trip can adversely affects a team's performance level in the league.

This weekend Manchester City travel to relegation-threatened Burnley with one eye already on their forthcoming Champions League fixture at Barcelona. But will that trip to Catalonia distract them so much that they will drop points here? I doubt it because City are such a formidable away side. Manuel Pellegrini's players have lost just three of their last 27 Prem away games (17-3-7) and scored at least once in each of their last 20 away games. Burnley, meanwhile, struggle at home -- they have scored just 13 goals in 14 games at Turf Moor this season.

The pick: Manchester City -1.25 Asian handicap (+104)

Sunderland (home) vs. Aston Villa
Asian handicap: Sunderland -0.25 (+100) vs. Aston Villa +0.25 (-106)
3-way line: Sunderland +135 / Aston Villa +250 / Draw +223
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 56 percent Draw
Total: 2 (Over -118, Under +108)

It's becoming popular in certain circles to denigrate Aston Villa manager Tim Sherwood. Among football hipsters on twitter he's sarcastically referred to as "Tactics Tim" for the alleged lack of tactical acumen he displayed during his period as caretaker manager of Tottenham Hotspur last season.

In an era when English managers are widely seen as less sophisticated than their European counterparts, many believe Sherwood's managerial methods begin and end with the shouting and gesticulating that has become his trademark touchline behaviour. And yet there are the first, gentle signs of a revival at Villa: The Midlands club has won its last two games in all competitions and there is a fresh buzz and energy about the place. Villa also have an excellent head-to-head record against Sunderland, having avoided defeat in the last seven meetings (3-0-4).

Sunderland are difficult to beat -- they have lost only 10 of 28 Prem games this season, which is fewer than any other side in the bottom half of the table -- but their home form is a serious concern for manager Guy Poyet: Sunderland have won just two of their last 15 Stadium of Light fixtures (2-6-7), failing to score in three of their last four home outings.

The pick: Aston Villa +0.25 Asian handicap (-106)
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thank you.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Stupid insider. Can someone post this for me?

http://www.nerve.com/love-sex/adventure ... with-semen" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Emailed.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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chicken noodle soup enhanced with spooge.
Yes, please!
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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http://www.espnfc.com/uefa-champions-le ... t-ucl-bets" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you'd be so kind.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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There was drama, tension and some wonderful football in the Champions League last week. Looking at the high-calibre teams involved this week and the state of some of the last-16 matchups, it promises to be another memorable couple of days in Europe's premier club competition.

After selecting three winners from four picks last week, here are our best value bets among this week's four Champions League fixtures.

Tuesday's fixtures

Monaco (home) vs. Arsenal
Asian handicap: Monaco +0.25 (-108) vs. Arsenal -0.25 (+101)
3-way line: Monaco +223 / Arsenal +133 / Draw +255
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 78 percent Arsenal
Total: 2.5 (Over +104, Under -113)

Monaco produced the shock of the round when they won 3-1 against Arsenal in the first leg in London three weeks ago. Leonardo Jardim's side produced a performance of startling quality and maturity, although it must be said Arsenal contributed to their own downfall, exhibiting the defensive naivety that has driven their fans to distraction this season.

Monaco were excellent but it would be a surprise if they were as dominant this time -- and a minor shock if they won the match. Looking at these two teams over the course of the season (rather than taking the first leg in isolation), Arsenal are at least as strong as the Ligue 1 outfit, and have more experienced European campaigners in their ranks. Monaco's home form is also a concern -- they have won only 52 percent of their matches at Stade Louis II in all competitions this season (11-2-8).

Arsenal are unlikely to play as poorly as they did last time and are good enough to get at least a draw. But the odds reflect that reality so there is little value in backing the visitors. Goals present a better betting opportunity. Arsenal need to score at least three times to stand any chance of making the last eight so cannot afford to wait long before taking risks. The game is likely to open up sooner rather than later, and although Monaco have a good defensive record this season, they have rarely faced the sort of onslaught Arsenal are likely to inflict.

The pick: Over 2.5 goals (+104)

Atletico Madrid (home) vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid -0.75 (-104) vs. Bayer Leverkusen +0.75 (-102)
3-way line: Atletico Madrid -135 / Bayer Leverkusen +426 / Draw +291
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 75 percent Atletico
Total: 2.25 (Over -109, Under +100)

The first leg between these sides was tetchy, with last season's beaten finalists Atletico Madrid clearly frustrated at their inability to produce the sort of fluent attacking football that might have consistently troubled their German opponents. Bayer Leverkusen ran out 1-0 winners, and that puts Atletico in an uncomfortable position: They have to score to get back into the tie but if they concede a goal then they'll need to score at least three of their own to overcome Leverkusen on the away-goals rule.

I expect Atletico to play nearer to their potential here than they did in the first leg. They have greater European experience than the visitors, and their fans are capable of creating an intimidating atmosphere at the Estadio Vicente Calderon. It is likely to be close, as the first leg was, but Atletico's greater strength and experience should give them a decisive edge.

The pick: Atletico Madrid -0.75 Asian handicap (-104)

Wednesday's fixtures

Barcelona (home) vs. Manchester City
Asian handicap: Barcelona -1.25 (-120) vs. Man City +1.25 (+112)
3-way line: Barcelona -256 / Man City +738 / Draw +475
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 79 percent Barcelona
Total: 3.25 (Over -112, Under +103)

Had Lionel Messi converted the late penalty in the first leg rather than seeing his spot-kick saved and then heading the rebound past the post, this tie would be over. As it is, Barcelona's 2-1 lead from the first leg gives Manchester City some hope; however, the Premier League champions will still need to produce a monumental performance to knock out the Catalans.

With a 2-1 lead, how will Barcelona approach the game? Likely in the same way they approached the first leg: by looking to dominate possession and frustrate City by keeping the ball in midfield. Barcelona's clever movement in the attacking third will require Manchester City to show maximum concentration at all times.

City have to score at least twice to stand any chance of making the quarterfinals so you might expect an open, high-scoring encounter. However, Barca's ability to have what you might call "sterile possession" -- ball retention without being truly dangerous -- could be a feature of this match. The hosts don't need to score or win to go through, so it would be in their interest to wear down City's resolve by passing the visitors into submission. For that reason I'm willing to back the game to have three or fewer goals.

The pick: Under 3.25 goals (+103)

Borussia Dortmund (home) vs. Juventus
Asian handicap: Borussia Dortmund -0.25 (-108) vs. Juventus +0.25 (+101)
3-way line: Borussia Dortmund +124 / Juventus +254 / Draw +243
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 85 percent Dortmund
Total: 2.5 (Over +105, Under -116)

These two sides served up a predictable first leg. Borussia Dortmund played some good attacking football but Juventus were a touch more clinical in the final third, enabling the Serie A champions to clinch a 2-1 victory. It was a fairly even contest -- Juventus had 49 percent possession, Dortmund 51 percent, while Juventus managed 11 shots on goal (five on target) and the visitors nine (four on target).

We're expecting a similarly open and well-matched encounter this week. Hosts Dortmund need to score at least once to stand any chance of making the quarterfinals, and their manager Jurgen Klopp is likely to instruct his side to play at a high tempo and pressure Juventus in their own half. The visitors' defensive frailties were obvious at times in that first leg but they can be clinical in attack, with Serie A's 15-goal joint-leading scorer Carlos Tevez an obvious danger man.

The 3-way line and Asian handicap markets look about right, leaving little room for investment. The total line, however, appears to be set a touch low considering the host's need to score and the manner these two sides attacked in the first leg. Go high.

The pick: Over 2.5 goals (+105)
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Many thanks.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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I don't understand those lines. What would someone win if they bet on Arsenal? 78% money line pick for Arsenal? Is that with a handicap, or is it just for the second leg, not the aggregate score. I'd think Arsenal would be a really long shot to pull this one out.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The bookmakers and bettors strongly disagree with you.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The Sybian wrote:I don't understand those lines. What would someone win if they bet on Arsenal? 78% money line pick for Arsenal? Is that with a handicap, or is it just for the second leg, not the aggregate score. I'd think Arsenal would be a really long shot to pull this one out.
That's just for the second leg, not the aggregate.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
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GAINESVILLE, Florida -- Not even a step inside Jim McElwain’s new office at the University of Florida, and the first thing on the left is a silver trophy in the shape of a football. It’s new, too. McElwain earned it last season as the Mountain West’s Coach of the Year.

“A lot of great players led to that,” he says pridefully. “A lot of great players.”

The coach and his staff clearly played a role, too. As a first-time head coach, McElwain took Colorado State from four to eight to 10 wins in three seasons. Prior to his arrival, the Rams hadn’t won more than seven games since 2002.

The rise of CSU is largely what got him noticed by Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley. McElwain became Foley’s fourth football hire. When Foley brought in first-time head coaches Ron Zook and Will Muschamp, it didn’t go so well. When he hired a head coach with head-coaching experience, Urban Meyer, the fruits were two national titles.

It's a relatively small sample size, but Gators fans are hopeful the theory holds in McElwain’s case. And his time at Colorado State is illustrative of a growing trend in college football: There’s often a stop now between coordinator and running a high-level program such as Florida.

“That experience was invaluable,” McElwain said. “You’re learning from the mistakes you make and the things that work. You never get a do-over in life. Maybe in golf, but not in life.

“The key is being realistic and truly learning from all the things that happen, continually evolving and realizing you don’t have all the answers.”

But by the time you’re at, say, Florida, perhaps you have more answers -- or at least better understand the questions, the challenges. That’s why many ADs prefer to see that head-coaching line on the résumé because, as they say, it’s very difficult to learn how to be a head coach at an elite-level program. Muschamp found that out the hard way, and that ultimately falls on Foley.

If Fort Collins was the dry run in a sense, here is what's now being applied here in Gainesville.

1. Have a clear vision for the future


McElwain went 22-16 in three years as coach of Colorado State. Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports
McElwain, 53, is something of a Renaissance man, as far as college coaches go. In a 30-plus-minute conversation, he once quoted a British economist from the early 1940s. Later, he referenced a professor’s theory called “The Cafeteria Effect.” Basically, the idea is that your life experience -- including the professional realm -- is the metaphorical equivalent of a cafeteria line; you take a little of this and that as you go through the line to eventually make a full tray.

So, that’s what McElwain feels as if he’s done as a coach to this point, drawing from a variety of resources to provide a foundation for his first head job and now his first big job. The “meat” on the plate could very well be McElwain’s time with the best program-builder going -- when he was Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-11.

Having a vision for things big and small, and then executing the vision on a day-to-day basis, is where Saban has excelled. Another former Saban OC, FSU’s Jimbo Fisher, has done well adopting a number of program management tenets from Saban. McElwain has done the same at the intermediate scale, and he speaks like someone who can apply that on the sport’s highest level in one of its most visible jobs.

“Someone better not say to me, ‘Oh, we do this because this is just the way we’ve always done it,’” McElwain said. He chuckled. “Nope. Wrong answer.”

2. Improve your surroundings

Asked for specifics of the vision as it applies to Florida, McElwain tapped the brakes. He said it’s still under construction, which is a fitting phrase considering the program, finally, is catching up in the facilities race.

The environs are simply not requisite with that most would consider a top-five -- and definitely a top-10 -- job in the country.

“I had an idea,” McElwain said, referring to his perception of Florida’s offices and meeting rooms, “but when I got here, I was shocked. It’s still nice ... but we’re not on a level playing field.”

UF is now spending to level it, however. McElwain’s arrival coincides with a long-awaited indoor practice structure that is set for a September completion. A new office compound might be added adjacent to that building. An academic center is on the way. So are updated dorms.

Now, in fairness, most of the projects had been on the books well before McElwain’s boots were on the ground. But he aims to make those projects the beginning of the story.

“It can’t just be about checking boxes,” he said. “We’ve got to evaluate each box.”

3. Focus on building the roster

On the subject of evaluation, pertaining to players and recruiting, that’s another area in which Saban has proven masterful. His cornerstone is a specific criteria for each position. If a player doesn’t satisfy a size or speed threshold for that position, he’s off the board. If an offensive lineman has stiff ankles, for instance, he’s out. If a defensive back cannot play the ball in the air, he’s out. If a quarterback is too careless with the ball, he isn’t going to be considered.

“There’s an elimination of fatal flaws,” McElwain said. “[Saban] is so thorough in that part. I really admired it. It takes a lot of work, man.”


The Gators are thin along the offensive line, but they have talent, including running back Kelvin Taylor. Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
Fisher echoed that. He said Saban taught him how to fully evaluate a prospect. A coach never has a 100 percent evaluation success rate, but diligence helps you avoid misses.

“Sometimes people get lazy and won’t watch but five minutes of film on a guy,” Fisher said. “I’ll watch that tape four, five more times, even after I feel like I know. I’ll compare his tape to someone else again, and then do it again. You have to do it. If you don’t, you can get complacent. It can happen.”

Muschamp had a great deal of bad luck with injuries, without question, but plenty of questions can be asked about evaluation and development. So McElwain’s test legitimately starts in February 2016 with his first full recruiting class.

In the meantime, there’s still a 2015 season to be played.

4. Manage expectations

Partly by design, initial expectations here are being kept very, very low. Some of the numbers are a legitimate concern. As has been documented, the Gators went through the spring with just six scholarship offensive linemen. (Six freshmen will soon enroll.) It's indicative of a particularly rough stretch in Florida football, as far as personnel. Muschamp inherited roster deficiencies from Meyer, especially on offense. He never got it right, and now the burden is McElwain's to bear.

The Gators lost an incredible four offensive linemen to career-ending medical hardships in the past 14 months. For a number of reasons, there have been seven receiver coaches in seven seasons. Quarterback play since Tim Tebow has been shaky at best, but that comes with the understanding that so have the spots around the QB.

McElwain called Florida a "fixer-up" in the spring.

“We’re going to be a little while catching up,” McElwain said. “Realistically, we’re probably a ways from that [roster] balance.”

And in McElwain, the Gators now have someone who repeatedly talks about having a “one-, three-, five-, seven-, 10-year plan.” He’s seeing the program as a CEO would see a business. And he’s seeing it through eyes that have experienced success elsewhere as a head man.

But back to that British economist, John Maynard Keynes.

“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones," McElwain said, quoting Keynes.

He added: “Looking to push forward is really the key, in everything you do.”
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thanks. Sounds like we're winning the NC in 2016! Looking forward to it.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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http://www.espnfc.com/english-premier-l ... es-best-xi" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

anyone?
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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I wouldn't mind seeing that link as well.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The 2014-15 Premier League season ends this weekend, and the campaign has been highlighted by a number of strong individual performances. But which players have stood out as the best at their respective positions?

When picking a best XI, there is different emphasis on various roles (for this exercise, I've chosen to follow a 4-4-2 formation). Goalkeepers are relied on to stop shots and organize their defenders. Wide defenders are judged by their ability to get forward along with their defensive responsibilities, while central defenders are relied on to anticipate and clear dangerous passes from the middle of the field. Similarly, central midfielders must be two-way players with strong distribution skills and an ability to create chances, while wide midfielders are most useful when they can dribble at defenders and impose their will on opposing defenders. Finally, forwards are judged primarily on their scoring ability, with secondary emphasis placed on their ability to open up chances for their attacking teammates.

Here are my picks for this season's Premier League best XI, with advanced statistics providing background on each player decision.

Goalkeeper: David De Gea | Club: Man United | Age: 24
De Gea ranks eighth in the Prem with 93 total saves, which is a surprisingly high volume considering Manchester United's place in the top four this season. The fact that De Gea has faced more shots on target than any other goalkeeper on a top-five team demonstrates how significant his shot-stopping skills have been to United's overall success. The Spanish international also commands the penalty area on crosses and is comfortable playing the ball with his feet, making him a well-rounded goalkeeper who provides consistent support to the various defensive combinations playing in front of him.

Left-back: Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 25
Bertrand made huge strides this season after establishing himself as a lineup regular in the second half of 2013-14 and ranks second among Prem defenders with 58 total tackles on the left half of the field. The defender also has contributed to Southampton's possession by ranking third among Prem defenders in passes completed from the left half of the field. Moreover, the 25 year old has consistently demonstrated that he is capable of contributing to the balanced defense that Southampton has provided all season.

Center-back: John Terry | Chelsea | 34
A good central defender needs to be able to break up plays and organize a strong defense. Terry ranks fifth among Prem defenders with 75 percent of his aerials won and ranks second on the team with 213 total clearances. Further, Terry leads all Prem defenders with five goals scored. His intelligence and ability to read the game have been critical to Chelsea tying for a league-low 31 goals conceded so far.

Center-back: Jose Fonte | Southampton | 31
Nobody in the Prem has been better at cutting out passes and closing defensive gaps through the middle of the field than Fonte. The Portuguese international leads the league with 114 total interceptions and has recorded a club-high 202 total clearances on a Southampton team that is tied for a league-low 31 goals conceded. Fonte's instincts allow for excellent positioning across the back line, and his ability to close down opposing attackers and force them into turnovers has been critical to his team's defensive success.

Right-back: Branislav Ivanovic | Chelsea | 31
Wide defenders are often charged with making an impact on both the attacking and defensive ends, and Ivanovic has shown poise this season in the attack to match his strong defensive presence along the right side. The defender ranks fourth on his team in total touches, and that he leads all right-sided Prem defenders with 29 shot attempts illustrates his fearlessness going forward. At the same time, Ivanovic is a physical defender who is strong in his tackles and can be trusted to mark the best attackers in the league.

Left midfield: Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 24
Hazard leads the Prem with 273 total take-ons (when the player controlling the ball tries to beat a defender), and his ability to take on defenders and create chances along the left side has helped the Belgian become the reigning PFA Player of the Year. More importantly, Hazard ranks sixth in the league with 14 goals despite averaging less than two shots per 90 minutes, and his efficiency in and around the penalty area complements the vision and dribbling ability that make him dangerous throughout the entire attacking half.

Center midfield: Cesc Fabregas | Chelsea | 28
The vision and savvy that Fabregas brought to Chelsea's midfield this season has been essential to its domestic title run. Fabregas leads the Prem with 92 total chances created, and those chances have been converted into a league-high 18 total assists. The Spanish international also displays excellent judgment as a part-time holding midfielder who records 61 percent of his touches in the attacking half, and his ability to be so effective within manager Jose Mourinho's 4-2-3-1 system is a testament to his intelligence within the heart of Chelsea's midfield.

Center midfield: Morgan Schneiderlin | Southampton | 25
Schneiderlin ranks third among Prem midfielders with 79 tackles and is great at closing down space and timing his challenges to keep opponents from getting past him. Schneiderlin also completes 88 percent of his passes. The 25-year-old's defensive acumen along with his understanding of where the next pass should be delivered among his teammates make him one of the best midfield generals in the league.

Right midfield: Jesus Navas | Manchester City | 29
Navas is a consistent attacking threat along Manchester City's right side, and the midfielder leads the Prem with 76 chances created along the right half of the field. The Spanish international provides a dangerous combination of dribbling and crossing in the attacking third, and is especially good at using his speed and deception to reach the opponent's end line and make dangerous passes back across the face of the goal for City's onrushing attackers.

Forward: Sergio Aguero | Manchester City | 26
Aguero leads the Prem with 0.9 goals per 90 minutes and consequently leads the league with 25 goals scored this season. His consistent strike rate is matched with an ability to effectively dribble out of crowded attacking areas; Aguero is not only brave enough to take on multiple defenders and break down packed defenses with his dribbling, but also intelligent enough to combine with teammates and make aggressive runs behind defenders to get on the end of scoring chances.

Forward: Diego Costa | Chelsea | 26
At 6-foot-2 and 187 pounds, Costa is a physically imposing forward who has seamlessly adjusted to the Prem from the less physical La Liga. The striker ranks third in the league with 19 goals despite making just 25 appearances, and in the attacking third he is highly capable of either dribbling at defenders or playing with his back to the goal and serving as a target for the rest of Chelsea's attackers to play off of when looking to create chances.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thank you.
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My hero. That was to be expected of course with Chelsea dominating.
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Gentlemen, you are both welcome.
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Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
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CHICAGO -- Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilievskiy was quietly sitting uninterrupted at his table during the media day that preceded this Stanley Cup finals series between Chicago and Tampa. He was messing around with the giant cardboard name tag in front of him, playfully putting it face down if a media member happened to look over at him.

You got the sense he would have been perfectly content going unnoticed during this session and perhaps the entire series, letting Ben Bishop get all the attention.

The playoffs had been an eye-opener for him. The 20 year-old goalie prospect got into 16 regular season games after Tampa cleared the way for him by waiving veteran Evgeni Nabokov.

He had a taste of the NHL, but the playoffs, he quickly discovered, are a different animal. He was amazed at the mental toughness shown by Bishop, going into loud buildings like the Bell Centre or Madison Square Garden and remaining completely unfazed by the moment and the crowd.

He observed how Bishop would let in a goal, have the entire crowd all over him and go about his business as if he didn’t even notice.

At 6-foot-3, and armed with talent and confidence, he wondered if he had that mental toughness to succeed in that moment like his 6-foot-7 teammate.

“What I lack is [mental toughness],” he said when we chatted, apologizing early for his English, but showing a strong command of the language. “[In the playoffs], you should have really good [mental toughness]. Bish got it. It’s unbelievable. Right now for me, he’s my favorite goalie.”

Vasilevskiy’s approach going into the finals was to continue doing what he’d done all postseason long: Observe the veteran in front of him, and try to pick up a little something each day that he could apply to his game, just like he has been doing since he joined the NHL. To him, this season has been an invaluable experience, even if he didn’t play as much as he would have in the American Hockey League.

“Maybe in AHL, I get more game [time]. In the NHL, I learn little things like, it’s mental, pre-game [preparations] ... the NHL is more professional, more skills and other things,” he said. “I try to get experience from the bench.”

Now, with Bishop banged up, it could be more than that. Lightning coach Jon Cooper was refreshingly honest when he said it would be a loss for Tampa if Bishop can’t go against Chicago in Game 3. He also expressed confidence in his young, Russian backup saying he’d put this goalie tandem up against any in the NHL.

There’s no doubt the skill is there with Vasilevskiy, but even Bishop took nearly the entire first round to get comfortable and playing with confidence. Ideally? Bishop is healthy enough to finish the series, and this experience ends up giving the rookie a small taste of what’s ahead, because what’s coming looks special for the young goalie.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen next season,” he said when we started talking about the future. “ just keep working hard and to do my best and help Tampa [with] anything that I can.”

Nine more takeaways from the weekend of hockey, including the NHL draft combine:

2. How Vasilevskiy got to Tampa

The finals have been a reminder of the outstanding job general manager Steve Yzerman has done in building this franchise into a potential powerhouse. Big moves like the Martin St. Louis and Ben Bishop trades and the Anton Stralman signing have overshadowed the shrewd deal that landed Vasilevskiy.

Around the 2012 trade deadline, Yzerman sent Steve Downie to the Avalanche for defenseman Kyle Quincey. He then flipped Quincey to his former organization in Detroit for a first-round pick. That first-rounder became Vasilevskiy (No. 19, 2012). If he turns out to be the goalie everyone thinks he will be, turning Downie into a franchise goalie may end up being the best move on Yzerman’s resume.

3. Nabokov decision underrated

Another move that may quietly pay off for the Lightning was their February decision to cut bait on Nabokov. It was a fairly risky decision to go with a 20-year-old backup down the stretch, but with an .882 save percentage in 11 games with the Lightning, it was clear Nabokov didn’t have much left.

He gave up 24 goals in six games during the 2013 playoffs, his last postseason experience, so it’s probably a good thing he isn’t the guy the Lightning might be turning to without Bishop.

4. Reilly a hot commodity

Each year during the Stanley Cup finals, the NHL brings the top draft prospects on a tour to meet players on both teams and give them a taste of the NHL at its highest level. Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are part of the group taking in Game 3, but there’s another prospect expected to be watching live that could have a major impact on one of the teams taking part.

According to a source, Mike Reilly, the college free agent who couldn’t agree to terms with the Columbus Blue Jackets, was expected to take in Game 3 as a guest of the Blackhawks. Reilly interviewed with nine teams at the draft combine this past week, and the Blackhawks remain on the short list.

After visiting Chicago, he’s expected to visit a few of the other teams on his list before making a decision. Both GMs participating in the finals, Chicago’s Stan Bowman and Tampa Bay’s Steve Yzerman, took time out to make their pitch to Reilly at the combine.

5. Columbus' unique pitch

The Blue Jackets remain hopeful that Reilly ends up circling back to them after the tour. Their pitch is a little different than the ones by teams like the Blackhawks, Kings and Lightning, where Reilly would ease into the lineup behind defensemen like Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman, respectively. Reilly fits a real need for the Blue Jackets, and would get a ton of playing time -- including power-play time -- on a young team growing together. They also view Jack Johnson, who has embraced his role as a veteran leader, as a defenseman Reilly can learn from at the NHL level.

Detroit GM Ken Holland made an impressive pitch to Reilly as well, leaving a good impression. It’s not surprising since Holland, after all, is the guy who landed the most impressive college free agent in recent years in Danny DeKeyser.

6. The No. 3 pick is in play

Coyotes GM Don Maloney is in the small group of general managers who sticks around to watch the entire testing process each year at the draft combine. This year is even more important than usual for him, with the Coyotes sitting on the third pick, with the first real decision in the draft.

“The first two picks are basically idiot-proof, even we couldn’t have messed those up,” he joked. “The third pick is when the intrigue starts.”

The intrigue goes beyond the player he might pick. It’s whether or not the Coyotes are the team picking it. Maloney said three teams have expressed interest in trading into that spot and the Coyotes have to consider it.

“I would say we are in the ... not the dating stage yet. It’s more the, ‘Do you like me, do I like you or do we want to go out?’ stage. The dating stage will come in the next couple weeks,” Maloney said. “The serious [talks] will come on the draft floor.”

7. So who do the Coyotes want to draft?

In talking about his options at No. 3, Maloney mentioned a number of players. Noah Hanifin is the best defenseman available, but the Coyotes also like fellow blueliners Ivan Provorov and Zach Werenski. Maloney also acknowledged the need at center in the desert, and spoke highly of Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner. Mikko Rantanen's size intrigues him, especially in the West.

In a span of a couple minutes, he had great things to say about at least six prospects, which may be why the Coyotes are willing to move out of the third spot.

“We have to be open-minded about it. We have a lot of holes,” he said. “We’re not locked in.”

He said it’s highly doubtful that the Coyotes would trade the pick outright, and they don’t want to fall too far down. “Would we trade down from three to 25? Probably not,” he said. “Would we be willing to look at some sort of [other] level, absolutely.”

8. No coaching change in Arizona

Maloney also put an end to speculation as to whether or not Dave Tippett is going anywhere. Maloney didn’t hestitate in saying Tippett will be back behind the bench next season in Arizona.

“Absolutely,” he answered, then added another absolutely for good measure. “It was a hard year. It was especially hard for Tip and the coaching staff. They’re there every day and every night. They’re there trying to find a way to have success.”

9. Splash move coming for the Panthers?

The Florida Panthers are the draft host, and currently hold the No. 11 pick in the draft. They’re at a different point in their development than the Coyotes, but GM Dale Tallon said he has no intention of moving that pick to land a player who can help immediately.

“We like drafting, we like developing,” Tallon said. “We might move back, but we’re not going to [be the ones to] move it.” Sometimes, there’s a perception that the host team needs to make a splash at the draft, but Tallon said hosting the draft in Florida won’t impact how he uses the pick. “I’m not there to put on a show, I’m there to make our team better,” he said.

10. Where the Panthers could add this offseason

The Panthers could use another scoring winger to push them into a playoff spot. They’d be a good destination for Patrick Sharp or even Phil Kessel if Tallon is feeling aggressive, but Tallon said the addition of Jaromir Jagr has relieved some of the pressure of adding that offensive help.

“We’re set there [with] Jagr,” Tallon said.

That said, he’s still open to bolstering the wing. “We’re open to anything,” he said. “If anyone wants to give us one, we’ll take him.”
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Many thanks.
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http://espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/ ... ts-2015-16" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Anyone? Thanks in advance.
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Top 10 Lightning Prospects
Note: Number in parentheses is overall prospect rank
RANK NAME, POS
1 Brayden Point, C (38)
2 Andrei Vasilevskiy, G (1G)
3 Anthony DeAngelo, D (50)
4 Mitchell Stephens, RW (86)
5 Adam Erne, LW (94)
6 Slater Koekkoek, D
7 Dominik Masin, D
8 Dennis Yan, LW
9 Matt Spencer, D
10 Matthew Peca, C

Following a surge of graduations the past few seasons, the depth in the Tampa system has thinned out; the Lightning are now below average relative to the rest of the league. However, the club still has a few prospects of very high quality left in the pipeline, giving its system value.

Slater Koekkoek developed as the season went along. When I saw him in the first half, he was struggling defensively versus pros, but by the second half, he was being used on penalty kills and winning more battles. His strength is on the rush and man advantage, due to his great speed and skill.

It's all about upside with Dennis Yan, as he's big, with a ton of offensive ability. When he has the puck, he's very creative, shifty, patient and sees the ice well. Yan also features an above-average wrist shot. His physical game, skating and off-puck reads could use some work.

At his best, Matt Spencer can be a very effective puck mover who is dangerous on the power play due to his skill and shot. He's very physical on his checks, with a well-developed frame for a young prospect. Spencer makes defensive stops, but his D-zone play isn't completely clean, as he'll get beat on his positional reads here and there.

Matthew Peca is a bit of a gut call for me, because I would have liked to see him be more dominant toward the end of his ECAC career -- and he's small. However, he is an extremely quick and darting skater with a high skill level, who impressed in his brief stint in the AHL. John MacLeod (11th) is also interesting as a big, mobile defenseman who plays the body and is smart defensively. His puck moving is just OK, but he has a booming shot from the point.

Noteworthy prospect

I was slightly critical last summer of the Dominik Masin pick at No. 35 overall. I'm not entirely convinced of his potential, but in my live viewings this past season, I was very impressed. He's big, mobile and strong, and moves the puck well. Masin's decisions aren't perfect, but he certainly shows potential as a quality two-way defenseman.

2015-16 impact

Andrei Vasilevskiy is already penciled into the NHL roster, and should battle Ben Bishop for starts all season. The Tampa roster is tough to crack as is, but if a defenseman goes down, you could see Koekkoek make a decent case to be a full-time player at the back end of the roster.
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Thank you.
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Can someone post this article for me, please?

Thanks!

http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/ ... -prospects" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

The best NFL organizations don't just find talent at the top of the draft. They find talent with their later picks and their undrafted rookie free agents. Last year's Super Bowl was the greatest possible advertisement for the importance of later-round picks. One starting quarterback was drafted in the third round, the other in the sixth round. Three of the six receiving touchdowns in the game were caught by undrafted players -- Danny Amendola, Doug Baldwin, and Chris Matthews -- with a fourth coming from former seventh-round pick Julian Edelman. The Seahawks got half of the Legion of Boom in the fifth round: Kam Chancellor in 2010, Richard Sherman in 2011. And the player who saved the day for the Patriots was an undrafted rookie out of West Alabama, Malcolm Butler.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Every year since 2007, Football Outsiders has put together a preseason prospect list to highlight the lower-drafted players who are set to make a much larger impact in the seasons ahead. For the uninitiated, our "top prospects" list is not like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, there's not much reason to list them here. Everyone knows who Marcus Mariota and Todd Gurley are by this point. Instead, we use a combination of statistics, scouting, measurables, context and expected role to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2015 and beyond.

To focus on these players, we limit the pool to guys who fit the following criteria:

Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent

Entered the NFL between 2012 and 2014

Fewer than five career games started

Have not signed a contract extension (however, players who were cut and picked up elsewhere still qualify for the list)

Age 26 or younger in 2015

You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about that and other FO stats on this page. You'll also see a few references to Football Outsiders' systems for projecting college talent to the pros. To learn about those systems, click these links for Playmaker Score (wide receivers), SackSEER (edge rushers) and Speed Score (running backs).

This year's list had a lot of candidates, and even cutting players from the honorable mention list was tough. The players between No. 2 and No. 25 moved around a lot during the process of compiling and finalizing our list. The player at No. 1 was glaringly obvious from the get-go.

1. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bryant -- a 6-foot-4 receiver who ran a 4.42-second 40 and gained 22 yards per reception in college -- has pretty much everything you want from a star wideout: speed, athleticism, size, and the ability to win at the catch point. How on earth did he last until the fourth round? Playmaker Score listed Bryant in the 85th percentile of wide receiver prospects since 1996, and even that might have been artificially low because Bryant had to share the field at Clemson with Sammy Watkins. Last year, Bryant was only the second rookie receiver since 1995 to gain over 20 yards per reception (minimum 25 catches). (Kenny Stills in 2013 was the other.) An offseason elbow procedure put Bryant a bit behind Markus Wheaton in Steelers training camp, which could keep him from becoming a starter until late this season or perhaps next season. But in all truth, the only thing standing between Bryant and stardom may be a little waiting time.

2. TJ Carrie, CB, Oakland Raiders

One year after Oakland took him out of Ohio University in the seventh round, Travis "TJ" Carrie may already be the Raiders' best cornerback. Carrie was already playing 80 percent of defensive snaps in Week 1 of his rookie season, and with four games started he just barely qualifies for our Top Prospects list. He had a strong 53 percent success rate in coverage, according to Football Outsiders game charting, and his 7.1 adjusted yards per pass was the best figure on the team last year. Carrie has good hands and good instincts, and he can go up to compete with physical receivers; he's 6 feet tall, and his 41-inch vertical jump ranked third among corners at the 2014 combine. Carrie is a local kid out of Catholic high school powerhouse De La Salle, which you may remember from the recent film "When the Game Stands Tall." Now he's one of the numerous young talents finally giving Raiders fans hope for the future.

3. Jordan Hill, DT, Seattle Seahawks


Jordan Hill registered 10 defeats and 5.5 sacks in only 360 snaps last season. Steve Dykes/Getty Images
Seattle chose Hill out of Penn State in the third round of the 2013 draft. He only played in four games as a rookie, but last year he became an important part of the Seahawks' defensive tackle rotation, finishing the season with 10 defeats and 5.5 sacks in only 360 snaps. That's more sacks on a per-snap basis than Cameron Wake, Marcell Dareus, DeMarcus Ware, Aaron Donald or Robert Quinn. Hill missed last year's playoffs with a calf injury, but he'll play a major role for the Seahawks in 2015. Tony McDaniel's release right before our book went to press will likely make Hill a starter this season. The big question about Hill will be just how many snaps he can play as a starter, because his lack of bulk (6-foot-1, 303 pounds) led to him wearing down against the run in college.

4. Aaron Lynch, OLB, San Francisco 49ers

Last year, this fifth-round rookie tied for the 49ers' team lead with six sacks, despite playing only half the defensive snaps. He also led the 49ers with 21 hurries and 11 quarterback hits. Our SackSEER projection system liked Lynch's potential more than his past: He had a 50.8 percent SackSEER rating, because of a strong explosion index, but only had 10.5 sacks in his two seasons of college ball. (Lynch had to sit out the 2012 season after transferring from Notre Dame to South Florida.) With Aldon Smith now cut, Lynch is battling Corey Lemonier for the starting role opposite Ahmad Brooks.

5. Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders

One tool Football Outsiders uses to scout running back prospects is Speed Score, which adjusts the back's 40 time for his weight. A good running back has a Speed Score of 100. Murray, at 223 pounds, ran his pro day 40 in 4.38 seconds for a Speed Score of 121.2 -- with an asterisk. Normally, we only consider Speed Score when players run at the combine, because players tend to run faster on their home tracks at pro days. But even if there is a little bit of home cooking in that pro day time, it doesn't change the fact that Murray is big and fast. He's also now the Raiders' starting running back, two years after they took him out of Central Florida in the sixth round of the 2013 draft. Murray lost his rookie season to an ankle injury and then barely played in the first half of last year. But he made some big plays once Oakland got him on the field in November, especially the 90-yard touchdown he scored against Kansas City during Oakland's first win of the season in Week 11.

The question with Murray is whether he can use that size to challenge defenders. We charted him with only three broken tackles in 99 touches last season, and ESPN Stats & Information tracked him with just 1.0 yards after contact, the lowest average for any back with at least 40 runs in 2014.

6. Jeremy Lane, CB, Seattle Seahawks

Lane presented a bit of a dilemma when we were debating this list among the Football Outsiders staff. Does a player who might not play this year count as a prospect for 2015? We eventually decided to include Lane because he should have a strong future as a starting NFL cornerback, even though he's likely to start 2015 on the PUP list, or even go on injured reserve, because of the arm and knee injuries he suffered in last year's Super Bowl. Lane only was healthy for seven games last year, but he was excellent, with a 71 percent success rate and 3.7 adjusted yards per pass allowed. In three seasons, we've charted 54 passes that targeted him, which would be just enough for him to be ranked on our cornerback leaderboards. Combine those three years and you get a 57 percent success rate and 6.3 adjusted yards per pass. Both numbers would have ranked Lane among last year's top 20 cornerbacks. Plus, he's one of four men who can say they've intercepted Tom Brady in a Super Bowl.

7. Ryan Davis, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Last season saw a number of undrafted veterans suddenly explode with big sack numbers, but there's a big difference with Davis. While Jacquies Smith and George Johnson of Tampa Bay had bounced around multiple organizations, Davis has been developed solely by the Jaguars since they brought him up I-95 from Bethune-Cookman in 2012. Gus Bradley used Davis in a number of ways: as a traditional end, a standing "Leo" end and a pass-rushing defensive tackle. The Jaguars built their high sack count (45) last year with coverage sacks and blitzes, but that's not where Davis got his sacks. Six of Davis' 6.5 sacks were marked as blown blocks, and four of those six came with a standard four pass-rushers. Davis also was second on the Jaguars with 11.5 hurries and six quarterback hits.

8. Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts


The Colts' Donte Moncrief combines good size with blazing speed. AP Photo/Don Wright
Moncrief was one of the 14 different rookie wide receivers with a Playmaker Score over 80 percent last year, and they couldn't all go in the first two rounds. We're pretty sure he was fine lasting until the Colts drafted him at No. 90, because that plugged him into a powerful offense with the best young quarterback in the game. Like Martavis Bryant, Moncrief combines size (6-foot-2, 221 pounds) with speed (4.40-second 40), and he just turned 22 in August. The Patriots respected Moncrief enough to put Darrelle Revis on him for most of the AFC Championship Game. The problem for Moncrief now is that the Colts' decision to draft Phillip Dorsett really confused his place on the depth chart. Moncrief should get more playing time this season, especially early on, but what happens if Dorsett surpasses him? NFL teams do not throw a lot to their No. 4 receivers, no matter how much the offense loves to throw the ball overall.

9. Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Randle has ability and opportunity, but let's be honest, the latter outweighs the former right now. Having the first crack at a starting job behind the best offensive line in football is a pretty nice ticket to stardom. Randle certainly looked like a future star last year, gaining 343 yards on 51 carries for a remarkable 6.7 yards per carry. But you don't want to put more stock into that than you do the 3.0 yards per carry he put up with 54 carries the year before. The worry about Randle coming out of Oklahoma State was that he didn't have the burst or power to get more than what the line blocked for him. It might be hard to tell if that's still the case should the Cowboys' line blocks as well as it did last year.

10. Malcolm Butler, CB, New England Patriots

How unknown was the hero of Super Bowl XLIX before he got his hands on that final pass to end Seattle's dreams of a repeat? As of late July, five months after the Immaculate Interception, Butler was still listed on the NFL's website as a strong safety. The three passes Butler got his hand on during Seattle's last drive showed an upside that makes you wonder how he came within a whisker of not even getting an NFL shot. (Playing college ball at Division II West Alabama was part of it.) On the other hand, Butler was just mediocre in his overall regular-season performance and got beat deep a couple of times, leading to a 51 percent adjusted success rate (fairly average) and 10.5 adjusted yards allowed per pass (not good). He'll need more consistency to become a longtime NFL starter and not the Timmy Smith of defensive backs.

Brief aside: The other Super Bowl hero, Chris Matthews, is ineligible for our list because he's been a professional too long. He was one of Cleveland's last cuts as an undrafted rookie in 2011, then went to Arena Football and the CFL before returning to the NFL with Seattle last year. As we saw in the Super Bowl, he definitely has potential for a nice (but late-starting) NFL career.

11. Pierre Desir, CB, Cleveland Browns

The undrafted K'Waun Williams played more than Desir as a rookie, but Desir is the more talented player in the long run. The Browns knew Desir would require some development time when they took him in the fourth-round out of Division II Lindenwood, and knee problems in the preseason of his rookie year didn't help. Like Antonio Cromartie, Desir is a long, boundary cornerback who has natural ball skills but needs to stay outside to be effective.

12. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns


Isaiah Crowell rushed for eight touchdowns as a rookie last season. Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
Once upon a time, Crowell was an elite, five-star running back recruit. Then he got kicked out of the University of Georgia for a felony weapons arrest and finished his college career at FCS Alabama State. The Browns signed Crowell as an undrafted free agent; he hasn't caused any off-field problems, and the talent was clearly still there. Crowell still has excellent balance and vision to move through his blockers. His combine 40 time of 4.57 seconds is more impressive when you consider that he weighed in at 224 pounds, giving him a 102.7 Speed Score. By the end of his rookie year, Crowell moved past third-round pick Terrance West on the Browns' depth chart, and he'll probably be the Cleveland starter in 2015. He's not much of a receiver, so rookie Duke Johnson Jr. will fill the role of third-down back.

13. Shawn Williams, FS, Cincinnati Bengals

Williams is clearly being groomed as replacement for Reggie Nelson -- unless George Iloka gets a huge free-agent offer and leaves instead. He has hardly played on defense since the Bengals took him in the third round of the 2013 draft, but that's because the starters have been so good and the Bengals never use three safeties. Williams has been excellent on special teams, with 18 special-teams tackles over his first two seasons. He's a good tackler with excellent range, though he needs to improve on his ball skills.

14. John Urschel, G, Baltimore Ravens

Our favorite math wizard won't get into the lineup ahead of Marshal Yanda or Kelechi Osemele, but he's the top reserve and in line to take over if/when one of the two starters leaves via free agency next year. As you might expect from a guy who won the Campbell Trophy, aka the "Academic Heisman," Urschel is considered technically sound but athletically limited. But his play as a rookie was anything but limited. When injuries forced him to start three games in Year 1, we charted him with no sacks allowed and just one blown block leading to a run for loss. Urschel also can play center and is Baltimore's top backup there, as well.

15. Jonathan Newsome, OLB, Indianapolis Colts

Newsome already has had some pretty big days in his one year as a member of the Colts. He had his first NFL start in Week 17 last year and won the AFC Defensive Player of the Week award with two sacks, a forced fumble and eight tackles. Then he strip-sacked Peyton Manning in the playoffs. For the regular season as a whole, Newsome had 6.5 sacks and 14 hurries in just 390 snaps, basically the same rate of pressure as Aaron Lynch.

Newsome's NFL success was a bit surprising, since he had a very poor SackSEER rating of 15.4 percent. Part of that rating is that passes defensed are a strong sign of a versatile pass rusher, and Newsome had just two in college. But his rating also is depressed by the two years he spent as a benchwarmer with no sacks at Ohio State before transferring to Ball State for his final two seasons. There's a real question as to whether Newsome will even get a chance to build on the success of his rookie year. His path to playing time seems blocked by the eventual (October?) return of Robert Mathis, the free-agent signing of Trent Cole and the continued employment of Erik Walden.

16. Antone Exum Jr., FS, Minnesota Vikings

Harrison Smith is a great young safety for the Vikings, but who will play next to him? The Vikings seem lukewarm on Robert Blanton, and they may want to go with more of a center fielder so Smith can play closer to the line of scrimmage and make big plays. Enter 2014 sixth-round pick Antone Exum out of Virginia Tech, a converted college cornerback who played primarily on special teams as he learned his new position last season. Exum is a fluid mover with good ball skills, though he sometimes took poor angles to tackle in college.

17. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons


Devonta Freeman broke 15 tackles in less than 100 touches as a rookie. AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
Atlanta's fourth-round pick last year is a 5-foot-8 scatback with a lot of short-area quickness. He didn't have great numbers as a rookie -- 3.8 yards per carry with -22.9% DVOA -- but he wasn't exactly running behind great blocking, either. Freeman did have a nice rookie year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 225 yards, and he had an impressive 15 broken tackles on less than 100 touches. Freeman may begin the season as the Atlanta starter but will likely lose the job by the end of the year to rookie Tevin Coleman. Even as a backup, however, he'll have a lot of value to Atlanta on third downs.

18. Brandon Thomas, G, San Francisco 49ers

Thomas is one of the 49ers' recent "redshirt" draft picks. The Clemson product tore his ACL at a pre-draft workout with New Orleans, which enabled the 49ers to snap him up with the last third-round pick in the 2014 draft. Now he's healthy and ready to compete for Mike Iupati's old spot at left guard. Thomas has a strong initial punch and above-average quickness to get to the second level. He should fit in well with San Francisco's run-heavy offensive scheme.

19. Aaron Colvin, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars

A torn ACL at the 2014 Senior Bowl dropped Aaron Colvin down to the Jaguars in the fourth round, but it actually didn't cause him to miss his entire rookie season. Colvin was activated in Week 12 and played at least 50 percent of the snaps in each of Jacksonville's last six games. He had unimpressive charting metrics, but it still takes time for players to recover and get their full speed back after returning from ACL surgery. Colvin (5-foot-11, 177 pounds) doesn't quite have the size associated with the Seahawks/Jaguars defensive scheme, but Jacksonville's coaching staff loves his instincts, work ethic and physical play in zone coverage.

20. Josh Huff, WR, Philadelphia Eagles


Will Josh Huff, a former Oregon product, get any love from Chip Kelly in Philadelphia this season? AP Photo/Matt Rourke
Look, it's a shifty YAC-producing slot receiver who went to the University of Oregon. You wouldn't be able to find space for a guy like that in the Eagles' offense, would you? It's a nice added bonus that Huff is also a strong run-blocker. The biggest hurdle for Huff might be that the Eagles would prefer to use Jordan Matthews as their slot receiver instead. That means moving Huff outside, and scouts generally thought that coming into the NFL, Huff would need more route-running work before he could play outside regularly.

21. Caraun Reid, DT, Detroit Lions

Hey, somebody has to get snaps at defensive tackle for the Lions besides Haloti Ngata. Reid was probably a little underdrafted as a fifth-round pick last year. Yes, he comes out of Princeton, but he impressed against stronger competition at the Senior Bowl. He's more of a pass-rusher than a run-stopper, and scouting reports suggested he could be good as a 4-3 "tilted" nose tackle or as an end in one-gapping 3-4 schemes. The Lions are talking about incorporating more of the latter into their defense this season, making Reid a challenger to Tyrunn Walker for pass-rushing snaps.

22. Dontae Johnson, CB, San Francisco 49ers

A fourth-round rookie from North Carolina State, Johnson gradually took over last season as San Francisco's nickelback and was a full-time player by Week 15. He started and played 97 percent of defensive snaps in the last three games of the year. As befits a nickelback, Johnson did an excellent job of preventing yardage (6.7 adjusted yards per pass) but was not quite as strong at preventing first downs (49 percent success rate). But those numbers are a little more impressive, given that Johnson was seen on draft day as a raw athlete with questionable college film. Johnson was supposed to require development, but the original baseline was supposed to be "not ready to play in the NFL." Instead, it looks like his development is already starting with a baseline of "reasonable," which means there's a better chance that the end-point of Johnson's potential is going to be "very good."

23. DaQuan Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Our No. 23 prospect actually played alongside our No. 3 prospect Jordan Hill as a junior at Penn State. Most draft analysts expected him to go in the second round, but he ended up falling to the fourth, where Tennessee snagged him to play as a 5-technique in their 3-4 defense. Jones didn't play much last season until he started the final game, but the Titans are ready to put him in the starting lineup for this campaign. Jones has good size at 6-foot-4 and 322 pounds, along with outstanding upper body strength and a violent rip move. Unlike his old teammate Hill, he's not going to be a gap-shooting pass-rusher who shows up in the highlights taking down the quarterback. He's more of a run-stuffer to complement Jurrell Casey on the other side and may come off the field when the Titans go to a 4-2-5 nickel.

24. Billy Turner, G, Miami Dolphins

Miami's new right guard has strong bloodlines, as his father Maurice played five years in the NFL as a running back. The Dolphins made him the highest drafted player from North Dakota State since 2002 when they took him in last year's third round. Turner was a two-time All-American at the FCS level, and like Caraun Reid, he impressed against bigger-school competition at the 2014 Senior Bowl. Unlike most college tackles who move inside at the pro level, Turner is considered a better pass-blocker than run-blocker.

25. Barrett Jones, C, St. Louis Rams

Jones poses an interesting question about trying to translate college linemen to the pros: Just how meaningful are the awards that a player wins in college? As a junior left tackle, Jones won the Outland Trophy as the best lineman in college football. As a senior, he switched to center to fill a hole on the Alabama depth chart and won the Rimington Trophy as the best center in college football. Despite all these accolades, Jones fell to the fourth round because he's only considered an average athlete. Then he lost his first two NFL seasons to injury, missing his rookie year with a Lisfranc foot injury and his second year with back problems. Jones is penciled in as the Rams' starting center this season.

HONORABLE MENTION

Carl Bradford, ILB, Packers

Delvin Breaux, CB, Saints

Jay Bromley, DT, Giants

Jaron Brown, WR, Cardinals

Jackson Jeffcoat, OLB, Redskins

AJ McCarron, QB, Bengals

Kevin Pamphile, G/T, Buccaneers

James White, RB, Patriots

Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins

Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs
“All I'm sayin' is, he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.”
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