ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Thanks, DSG!
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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You're welcome. I accept repayment in the form of starting sub-standard fantasy lineups in weeks 4 and 13.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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DSafetyGuy wrote:You're welcome. I accept repayment in the form of starting sub-standard fantasy lineups in weeks 4 and 13.
I'll just give you a couple of Swamp bucks instead. Or, if I ever meet you, I'll buy you a beer (maximum value of prize: $5).
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:You're welcome. I accept repayment in the form of starting sub-standard fantasy lineups in weeks 4 and 13.
I'll just give you a couple of Swamp bucks instead. Or, if I ever meet you, I'll buy you a beer (maximum value of prize: $5).
I'll aim for the latter. With your relative proximity to where my mom lives, we should be able to make it work sometime.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:You're welcome. I accept repayment in the form of starting sub-standard fantasy lineups in weeks 4 and 13.
I'll just give you a couple of Swamp bucks instead. Or, if I ever meet you, I'll buy you a beer (maximum value of prize: $5).
I'll aim for the latter. With your relative proximity to where my mom lives, we should be able to make it work sometime.
Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:You're welcome. I accept repayment in the form of starting sub-standard fantasy lineups in weeks 4 and 13.
I'll just give you a couple of Swamp bucks instead. Or, if I ever meet you, I'll buy you a beer (maximum value of prize: $5).
I'll aim for the latter. With your relative proximity to where my mom lives, we should be able to make it work sometime.
Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
Norwalk, about 25 minutes south of Sandusky. I remember we went back-and-forth about trying to get together a few years ago around the holidays (the day we were flying back, I think). Now that we've moved out of LA, we usually end up that way 3-4 times a year.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
Norwalk, about 25 minutes south of Sandusky. I remember we went back-and-forth about trying to get together a few years ago around the holidays (the day we were flying back, I think). Now that we've moved out of LA, we usually end up that way 3-4 times a year.
That's doable. Norwalk is about an hour from my place, and is home to one of my favorite golf courses in Ohio (Eagle Creek). Although, we might have a few more things to do in Cleveland than Norwalk.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
Norwalk, about 25 minutes south of Sandusky. I remember we went back-and-forth about trying to get together a few years ago around the holidays (the day we were flying back, I think). Now that we've moved out of LA, we usually end up that way 3-4 times a year.
That's doable. Norwalk is about an hour from my place, and is home to one of my favorite golf courses in Ohio (Eagle Creek). Although, we might have a few more things to do in Cleveland than Norwalk.
You guys should just go to Cedar Point together. Win win.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
Norwalk, about 25 minutes south of Sandusky. I remember we went back-and-forth about trying to get together a few years ago around the holidays (the day we were flying back, I think). Now that we've moved out of LA, we usually end up that way 3-4 times a year.
That's doable. Norwalk is about an hour from my place, and is home to one of my favorite golf courses in Ohio (Eagle Creek). Although, we might have a few more things to do in Cleveland than Norwalk.
Yeah, we were kicking around the idea of lunch in your next of the woods before going to the airport. You had warned the possibility of having to leave town for work existed and it came true.

I had no idea Eagle Creek was that good of a course. A high school friend who wanted to design golf courses, worked on it one summer during its construction phase.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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DSafetyGuy wrote:
Sabo wrote:Where does she live? I know you've been in this area before but we couldn't meet up because I was traveling or some crap like that.
about 25 minutes south of Sandusky.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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OK bitches...please...http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/ ... ogress-nfl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Gunpowder »

Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel hasn't arrived, nor has he suddenly set the bar for quarterback play in the NFL after getting his first career win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 2. But after throwing two touchdowns and finishing the day with a Total QBR of 75.5, it's hard to deny Manziel has made some real progress.

Hey, we don't even know if Manziel will start this week, given Josh McCown could be cleared. But Manziel on Sunday did some things we hadn't yet seen from him, and I think the coaches watching the tape have a much tougher decision to make if McCown was holding a clubhouse lead.

Let's take a look at what I'm referring to.

The system QB

Manziel is never going to be tagged as a "system guy" in the NFL because of his unique playing style, but there was a prevailing sentiment that the Browns would have to aid his development with a scheme heavy on gadgets and scripted plays.

That could not be further from what we've seen the past two games.

EDITOR'S PICKS

McManamon: Manziel should stay starting QB
It's time for the Browns to figure out what they have in Johnny Manziel, who played well enough against the Titans to earn another start, Pat McManamon writes.
Cleveland is running a grown-up offense under Manizel -- one that required the second-year QB to improve his footwork, eyes and progressions. Going back to his relief appearance in Week 1 versus the New York Jets and the win over the Titans on Sunday, Manziel has shown more patience in the pocket instead of looking for invisible escape doors at the first sign of pressure.

Yes, Manziel did attack open rush lanes more often in Week 1 (five carries, 35 yards), but he was also playing against Todd Bowles' attacking defense. You can't get upset at a player of Manziel's ability for seeing an open field and trying to make a play with his legs. Look at what happened to the Colts last night.

The game plan changed against the Titans, and Manziel responded by playing within the system. Running backs Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson Jr. logged 27 combined carries as the Browns looked to establish the line of scrimmage. That led to play-action opportunities for Manziel and manageable down-and-distance situations in which he could identify more defined reads in the passing game. And when he did move outside of the pocket, Manziel was a pass-first guy on Sunday, keeping his eye level up to find receivers.


For example, on Cleveland's first drive of the game, with the ball in the "shot zone" (between the 40s), the Browns gave the Titans a pro-set alignment and used max-protection off play action to open up a deep route against quarters coverage (see diagram below).


NFL
With the tight end blocking and Manziel showing the ball on the run action, the safety attacked downhill. This left the cornerback Coty Sensabaugh in one-on-one coverage against receiver Travis Benjamin -- with no help over the top. Manziel noticed the mismatch, flipped his hips off the play action, set his feet and delivered a dime to Benjamin's upfield shoulder (away from the defender's leverage) for a 60-yard touchdown pass.

One play never tells the complete story for a quarterback in the NFL, but this is a nice example of the Browns and Manziel executing play action to produce an explosive play over the top of the defense. And it shows us that Manziel can play within the offensive system while using NFL-level techniques to deliver the ball.

Make no mistake, that's progress from his rookie season when he routinely threw the ball up for grabs.

The playmaking QB

There are elements to Manziel's game that can't be taught on the field or in the film room. He is unique with the way he avoids pressure, extends plays and creates opportunities as an athlete to move the sticks. It's a rare skill set for the position, but it also has to be controlled -- or used in calculated situations -- to expand on the huddle call.

Again, going back to the small sample size from Manziel's rookie season, the quarterback leaned too much on his natural ability and created negative plays for the Browns. To me, those were signs of panic and Manziel not trusting the scheme enough to see the field or play with the coached technique.

On Sunday, Manziel used his playmaking skill set exactly how you'd hope. Late in the fourth quarter, with the Browns protecting a seven-point lead, Tennessee brought pressure. LB Brian Orakpo came unblocked off the edge (see diagram below), but instead of taking a sack or throwing into tight coverage, Manziel improvised on the play, spun backward to avoid Orakpo and extended his drop into the boundary.


NFL
We're accustomed to seeing Manziel scramble in these situations, but he kept his eyes downfield, identified the free safety vacating the deep middle and unfurled another beautiful deep ball to Benjamin for a touchdown.

Hey, that was a sweet play, a flashback to the Johnny Football from Texas A&M, the electric talent who can pull things out of a hat and flip the field in an instant. Manziel can give you that when the situation presents itself.

The starting QB

Completing 8 of 15 passes for 172 yards isn't going to win Manziel a trophy -- and, to be sure, he wasn't perfect against the Titans. He missed Dwayne Bowe on a skinny post, forced a ball into coverage on a curl route and launched a deep pass into a double team. Those throws -- and his two fumbles inside the pocket -- give Manziel plenty to work on in the coming weeks.

But in terms of grading out a player in only his second career pro start, I saw plenty of positives Manziel can build on if he continues to make progress in the Browns' system. This stuff isn't easy. It's going to take some time.

The obvious question for the Browns and head coach Mike Pettine: Should that time be spent on the sideline or in the game? In my opinion, McCown is, at best, a bridge to the future, a veteran who has struggled without Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Why not let Manziel develop on the field against live competition?

It's far too early to start projecting Manziel's future; he just hasn't gotten enough NFL reps. But the best way for the Browns to find out what they have in their former first-round pick is to let the kid play.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thanks!
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Can someone post this article for me?

Thanks!

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/in ... rothersnow" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo, if you want more than the Frazier part, let me know.
If Todd Frazier needs something to do after he retires as a player, he could always become the mayor of Cincinnati, following in the footsteps of Jerry Springer and others. He is an icon in a city that worships at the altar of players in a way that few cities do, and given his accomplishments, his personality and his name recognition, Frazier probably would win an election there with a margin that would make politicians jealous.

But for some rival evaluators, Frazier's standing with the Reds has become a symbol for the direction of the franchise -- just as the issue of taxes is often used as a barometer for assessing Republicans and Democrats.

It's becoming standard operating procedure in Major League Baseball for teams to pare down their rosters to the bone in a strategic effort to lose, to better position the franchise to seize high-end talent in future drafts. The Astros went through this cycle, as did the Cubs, and the Phillies and Braves are now following the same strategy.

If the Reds try to do this as well as they work to escape the shadows of the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs in the NL Central, then it would make a lot of sense for Cincinnati to move Frazier and other fan favorites. But some rival executives say they have gotten no indications the Reds are ready to do this. "They aren't pushing Frazier at all," said an evaluator with a National League team.

If they want to give themselves the best chance to win in the future, they probably should be looking to move Frazier this winter, because this is the best possible time to move him. The infielder turns 30 years old in February, and in a market starved for power and corner infielders, Frazier's value will never be higher than it is right now, following a season in which he clubbed 35 homers among 79 extra-base hits.

Frazier has two more seasons before he becomes eligible for free agency, and the safe public relations move for the Reds would be to retain him with a long-term deal, to ensure that he would finish his career in Cincinnati, maybe with a statue to follow. The frozen pose for that, you would assume, would be Frazier's follow-through in the Home Run Derby in July, when he came back repeatedly to win the title and earn standing ovations from the crowd in Cincinnati and other All-Stars. The Reds can hang on to Frazier for the rest of his career, even through the decline that is inevitable for all players.

If the Reds' primary goal is to sell tickets in 2016 and 2017 -- which is absolutely the right of owner Bob Castellini, if that's the direction he chooses -- then they should keep Frazier. He's that good, and he's that popular with fans.

But if the most important thing to Castellini is to win, and give his team the best possible chance to catch the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs, then the best thing he can do is to tank seasons. The best thing he can do is to tell his front office to move Frazier, as well as Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce and even first baseman Joey Votto (the Reds would probably have to eat a chunk of money if they were to trade Votto, whose contract runs through at least eight more seasons at a minimum cost of $199 million).

If the Reds don't strip down their team, they'll probably continue to float somewhere in the middle. Given the limitations of their market and their budget, they'll never really spend enough to contend with the best teams in the National League, and with Frazier, Votto and the collection of young pitching they have developed, they'll probably never be so bad that they'll pick near the beginning of the draft. There is mounting evidence that in order to be good, you either have to spend a lot of money like the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants, or you have to be really bad and pick the best talent at the top of the draft.

For the Reds, Todd Frazier is a human forecast; his standing with the team will tell you everything you need to know about the direction of the franchise.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Thanks, DSG. If you don't mind putting up that rest, that would be great. I appreciate it.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Should have specified it was a lot of his links and stuff:
Along the same lines: For the Brewers, the indicator of just how far Milwaukee might go in positioning for future drafts is catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The Rangers are looking for a catcher, and Lucroy could be a good fit, Evan Grant notes.

The practice of tanking seasons in Major League Baseball is apparently becoming more prevalent, as noted in Friday's column. Today, Evan Drellich has more on the risks of that.

If you made a cold assessment of the Braves' future, here's something worth considering: They will open their new ballpark in 2017 and will naturally get an attendance bump that year and in 2018, so the push for Atlanta to contend probably doesn't really need to start until 2019.

The Braves' trade of Andrelton Simmons is another gut punch for Atlanta fans, writes David O'Brien.


Kimbrel headed to Boston

The addition of Craig Kimbrel is the sign of a new winning formula for the Red Sox, writes Nick Cafardo.

Kimbrel surrendered more homers (six) last season than in any other year in his career, and generally did not dominate hitters to the degree that he had in the past. But there are no signs of regression in his stuff: His average fastball velocity of 97.3 mph was the highest of his career, and his rate of missed swings (15.7 percent) falls right in the middle of his career range.

Now the Red Sox turn to the heavy competition for aces in free agency. The Cubs, Cardinals and Giants are all interested in David Price, and the Dodgers and Giants are among those positioned for Zack Greinke. The starter perceived to be third best in the market, among a lot of evaluators, is Johnny Cueto.


Notables

• Pirates GM Neal Huntington faces some tough calls ahead, writes Ron Cook.

• Matt Wieters' decision to accept a qualifying offer and remain with the Orioles was the best thing for everybody.

• One of the most closely watched free agents of the winter will be Ian Kennedy, who rejected a chance to make $15.8 million in a qualifying offer from the Padres despite the broad industry perception that he would've been better off accepting it.

We've been through this drill with other players over the years, enough that there cannot be any excuses or complaints about the system. If Kennedy gets something close to $15.8 million annually in a multiyear deal, then it all makes sense. If he's still sitting out as a free agent in late January or mid-February, or even unsigned at the outset of the 2016 season, as Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales were in 2014, then it's on him.

Meanwhile, Colby Rasmus, who accepted his offer, is glad to be back in Houston.

• According to sources, this winter the Giants will try to lock up shortstop Brandon Crawford to a long-term deal.

• The Rays have won the chance to play an exhibition in Cuba, writes Marc Topkin. The Orioles wanted to play this game, and will undoubtedly perceive this decision as part an MLB Cold War aimed at them, because of the dispute over MASN money.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Phillies have acquired starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson. For the Diamondbacks, it was a move to cut costs.

2. The Brewers picked a farm director.

3. The Dodgers' managerial search is down to three.


AL East

• Yankees GM Brian Cashman used his catching depth to patch the Yankees' roster, again.

• Locking up Marco Estrada for two years was a good move by the Blue Jays, writes Bob Elliott.

• A Red Sox prospect could be on the fast track to the big leagues.


AL Central

• The door is open for Neftali Feliz to be the Detroit Tigers' closer.

• Here's how Royals chairman and owner David Glass celebrated Kansas City's championship.

• The Indians have holes to fill, writes Paul Hoynes.

• It's a good bet that Miguel Sano will be the Twins' third baseman, writes Tom Powers.


NL East

• Marlins manager Don Mattingly tipped his cap to the Mets.


NL Central

• Matt Holliday is eager for next season.


Lastly

• A movie that just came out has deep, personal meaning for Angels pitcher Huston Street.

• There will be discussion this offseason about change in MLB.

• Tommy Hanson's dog alerted friends.

• Trevor Hoffman should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, writes Nick Canepa.

I agree. But the Hall of Fame's refusal to open its ballot limits will greatly hurt Hoffman's chances of getting in this year. That means that his candidacy will hinge on the Hall's rules rather than the reliever's own worthiness for the honor. And that's really kind of silly.

• Ken Griffey Jr. should be a unanimous pick, but he won't be, writes John McGrath. McGrath is right. Some voters, working to navigate through the Hall's rules, will use their ballot to support other players because they know Griffey will get in anyway. This is what happened with Pedro Martinez last year.

And today will be better than yesterday.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Thanks again, DSG. I hope to reward you for your efforts by beating the Hungry Charleys this week.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by govmentchedda »

Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by brian »

With Jonathan Drouin's trade request now public thanks to a statement from agent Allan Walsh, natural follow-up questions emerge. What team is the best fit? What would it take to make it happen?

If there were easy answers, the trade request never would have been made public, considering it first was made in November. The deal would be done.

It’s a complicated deal on many levels, the first being that now is probably not the time to trade Drouin. Not when his value is as low as it is currently. When I checked with one general manager on the price tag, that was his point.

“He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire,” he responded.

That’s the problem with finding a reasonable return. The Lightning and the rest of the league aren’t exactly sure what they have in Drouin.

“You can’t trade him,” said one veteran talent evaluator who tracked Drouin close during his draft year. “You don’t get the value in return. The only way you trade him is for a deadline deal that can put you over the top and get you in the playoffs. That means giving you a good player without the future or upside of Drouin. It’s a difficult situation.”

Especially considering the Lightning’s place in the standings. It would be a little easier to stomach a Drouin trade that helps boost Tampa’s Stanley Cup aspirations this season if the Lightning were sitting on top of the Eastern Conference standings. They’re not. They’re not even in a playoff spot, sitting two points outside of the final wild-card position.

To get an understanding of what his value is, a determination has to be made as to what kind of player Drouin ultimately will be in the NHL.

If this is a Tyler Seguin opportunity for a team, then it makes sense to pay a high price and hope the scenery change leads to stardom like Seguin has found in Dallas.

“I would love to steal him,” said the evaluator. “There isn’t anything he doesn’t have. I wouldn’t say he’s a tough guy, but I don’t think there’s a courage issue. You’d be scared to trade a guy like that, just like you’d be scared to trade Seguin. You want to find out what you have in him, not let him die on the vine.”

The stat most often pointed out by Drouin defenders is his even-strength production, which is impressive. He averages 1.63 points per 60 minutes of even-strength play, suggesting he’s productive when he gets an opportunity.

But in Tampa, it’s simply not just about offense. There’s a responsible style of play that Jon Cooper demands, as he should. Look at the players who have grown up under Cooper -- guys like Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov have matured into strong players on both ends of the ice. It’s an evolution the Lightning would have loved to see Drouin make.

If Seguin is the high-end outcome, what’s a reasonable low end? I phoned Mike Santos, who was at the Florida draft table as assistant GM when they passed on Drouin to take Aleksander Barkov to see what their internal view of Drouin was at the time.

Drouin was never a real option for the Panthers, with the big center the clear choice for Florida. Santos echoed what Dale Tallon said last week: It was either Barkov or Seth Jones.

Santos doesn’t see Seguin when he watches Drouin, which he’s done at least a dozen times live this season. He sees J.P. Dumont, a player drafted No. 3 overall in 1996 by the Islanders.

“To me, he’s going to be J.P. Dumont, a guy who can get you 20 goals. A good player but just a decent-sized guy,” Santos said. “There are times you don’t notice Drouin. A guy at that level, he’s got to stick out more than that at this point in his career.”

Santos doesn’t always see the high-end speed and quickness that Drouin displayed in lighting up the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.

The Dumont comparison also works when you look at the production of both players in the QMJHL. In Dumont’s last season with Val-d’Or Foreurs, he had 57 goals in 55 regular season games. In Drouin’s draft year, he had 41 goals in 49 games for Halifax.

The comparison is not meant as a slight. Santos was part of a Predators front office that signed Dumont and got 29 goals out of him in 2007-08.

“I like him,” Santos said. “But I like him as an upside third-line guy who can fill in on the second.”

Nine more takeaways from the weekend of NHL action:
"There isn't anything he doesn't have," an NHL talent evaluator said of Drouin. "I wouldn't say he's a tough guy, but I don't think there's a courage issue. You'd be scared to trade a guy like that, just like you'd be scared to trade Tyler Seguin." Scott Audette/NHLI/Getty Images

2. Where he could wind up

So what’s a possible destination? One source suggested the New Jersey Devils as a nice fit, and it makes a lot of sense. GM Ray Shero is in the middle of building a young roster and is heavy on young defensemen, the kind who could help immediately in Tampa Bay.

“Guys like Eric Gelinas, Jon Merrill or some of those young defensemen fighting for ice time. Or what about Damon Severson?” suggested the source. “It would make lots of sense. They’re not using Stefan Matteau -- what about Merrill and Matteau? I’d do that from both sides.”

3. Another factor to consider

Of course, in the middle of this Drouin talk is the fact that the Lightning still don’t know where Steven Stamkos will be playing next season. That’s another reason one source doesn’t like the idea of trading Drouin.

“If they’re going to lose Stamkos, Drouin is the closest thing they have to a replacement,” he said.

4. Rychel on the move too?

Jonathan Drouin isn’t the only young player who is looking for a trade. Before the season, we witnessed a meeting with the Blue Jackets front office, Warren Rychel and agent Kurt Overhardt at the Traverse City prospect tournament. At the time, all sides said it was just a chance to get a sense of how Blue Jackets prospect Kerby Rychel fit in the Columbus depth chart.

Columbus Dispatch writer Aaron Portzline reports that Rychel asked for a trade before the season. Among those interested, per Portzline: The Rangers, Flames, Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Ducks, Bruins and Red Wings. Rychel was the No. 19 overall pick in 2013, and has 18 points in 20 AHL games this season.

5. Some good news for the Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets don’t have to look far for more positive news regarding one of their prospects. Team USA captain Zach Werenski has been great for the Americans in their chase for World Junior Championship gold. He has seven points in five games, playing a ton for Ron Wilson.

“It’s been going well so far,” Werenski said when we chatted by phone on Sunday. “I have to thank Chris Chelios and the coaches for giving me a big role. I’m enjoying it. That’s when I play my best, the more I’m out there. It’s been going good for me.”

6. Werenski hits the Dab

Werenski and Colin White pulling a Cam Newton and hitting the Dab after scoring against Canada were notable moments from earlier in the tournament. The reaction on Twitter was great, but I was curious what veteran coach Ron Wilson thought of the goal celebration.

Werenski laughed.

“He first asked what we were doing. Colin White said we had to sneeze,” Werenski said. “The next day, he came in and someone told him what it was.”

7. Evolution of the celebration

Werenski, who is close friends with Red Wings budding star (and former Michigan Wolverine) Dylan Larkin, first pulled the goal celebration during a Michigan game.

“About a month ago,” he said. “I told my friends at Michigan, I’m going to take it international.”
Alex Ovechkin, Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Toews and ... this man, John Scott, are the NHL's All-Star Game captains this season. Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images

8. John Scott, All-Star captain

If Drouin’s trade demand hadn’t become public, the conversation today might be more focused on the news this weekend that John Scott was voted one of the All-Star captains. As pointed out by friend and colleague Sean McIndoe, this Scott campaign wasn’t about hockey fans expressing love for the disappearing role of enforcer. It was the popular kids making a mockery of the homecoming vote.

According to a league source, a review of the All-Star voting process is coming, although the league has discussed the challenges that come with fan voting now for the last several years.

The issue goes beyond just Scott winning. Another problem discussed in the past was one team having too many representatives voted in with ballot stuffing. Don’t be surprised to see further evolution of the voting process.

9. More detail on the Barkov extension talks

The Florida Panthers have been busy giving out contract extensions, including new deals for GM Dale Tallon and head coach Gerard Gallant. On Friday, we talked about the beginning of Aleksander Barkov's own possible extension in Florida, and had another conversation over the weekend about what that might ultimately look like.

The Panthers would like to go max term and get eight years of Barkov, but that isn’t the preference for the Barkov camp. They don’t want a bridge contract, nor do they expect the Panthers to agree to a four-year deal, which would mean Barkov would hit free agency at 25. Ultimately, the annual salary will dictate how close the Panthers get to eight years and how close Barkov’s camp gets to four.

10. The Penguins' big weekend

If the Penguins make the playoffs, this may be the weekend we point to and say things started to come together. Pittsburgh followed up a win in Detroit on Thursday with an impressive 5-2 win over the Islanders on Saturday. Ten goals in two wins is a nice start for a team that has struggled to score. The bigger test comes on Tuesday when the Penguins host the Blackhawks.

Capitals coach Barry Trotz has noticed the movement in the middle of the Metropolitan division standings, and will pay even closer attention soon.

“I would say when we get to the All-Star break, I will start paying more attention to that seven or eight team in our conference and see who is really putting it together,” Trotz said during a Sunday phone conversation for Tuesday’s blog post. “If a team like Pittsburgh is putting it together, I’ll pay a lot more attention than someone elsewhere in the standings.”
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The UEFA Champions League last-16 second-leg matches kick off this week, including games between Real Madrid-Roma, Wolfsburg-Gent, Zenit Saint Petersburg-Benfica and Chelsea-Paris Saint-Germain.

After making a profit on the first-leg matches, ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham takes you through the smart selections for all four of this week's UCL fixtures.


Note: Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, if you back a team at 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled). If you back a team at -1 Asian handicap and it wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled).

Tuesday

Real Madrid vs. Roma

Asian handicap: Real Madrid -1.25 (-117) vs. Roma +1.25 (+109)
3-way line: Real Madrid -247 / Roma +712 / Draw +442
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 71 percent Real Madrid
Total: 3.25 (Over -105, Under -103)

Real Madrid are virtually assured of being in the next round after their 2-0 win at Roma in the first leg. That state of affairs makes this a difficult match for bettors to call as Real could lose by a single goal and still go through. It is therefore hard to know how the hosts will approach the game: Will they look to attack -- as they do in nearly all their home games -- or will they instead sit back and and hit on the break against a Roma side that will need to throw caution to the wind at some point to stand any chance of pulling off an impossible comeback?

Whatever tactics Real Madrid manager Zinedine Zidane employs, Roma must actually believe they can go through to stand any chance of making this a competitive contest. If the Italian visitors see the tie as over then there's a good chance they will fold against Real's superior attacking might. Roma will put up resistance for a certain amount of time but are likely to crack if and when Real gain the upper hand. For that reason the hosts are the handicap selection.

ESPN Chalk pick: Real Madrid -1.25 Asian handicap (-117)

Wolfsburg vs. Gent

Asian handicap: Wolfsburg -1 (-115) vs. Gent +1 (+108)
3-way line: Wolfsburg -194 / Gent +595 / Draw +364
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 67 percent Wolfsburg
Total: 2.75 (Over -122, Under +111)

This tie remains competitive as Wolfsburg won 3-2 in Belgium in the first leg but the difference in class between the sides is arguably greater than that scoreline suggests. For much of that first encounter the German visitors were in control, with only two late Gent goals -- they scored in the 80th and 89th minutes -- reducing the outcome to a one-goal margin. Now Gent have no choice but to attack in order to try to overcome that one-goal deficit.

That should play into the hands of a Wolfsburg side that produced some moments of real quality going forward in the first meeting. As they're in the driving seat (playing at home with a one-goal advantage), the Germans are under little pressure to come out and expose themselves in defence, so they may well look to tease Gent out from the back and strike on the break.

A draw would be enough for Wolfsburg to go through but they played well enough in the first leg to suggest they can win here. Gent's away record in the competition also points towards a home victory: The Belgians won one and lost two of their three group games on the road, with their sole victory coming against a Lyon side whose chances of going through had all but gone at the time the game took place.

ESPN Chalk pick: Wolfsburg -1 Asian handicap (-115)

Wednesday

Zenit Saint Petersburg vs. Benfica

Asian handicap: Zenit St Petersburg -0.5 (+108) vs. Benfica +0.5 (-115)
3-way line: Zenit St Petersburg +108 / Benfica +291 / Draw +252
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 25 percent Draw
Total: 2.25 (Over -108, Under -101)

There was little to choose between these teams as Benfica ran out 1-0 first-leg winners thanks to Jonas' injury-time header. The result was a touch harsh on Zenit as they performed well, although playing their first competitive match in nine weeks, the Russian champions visibly tired in the later stages.

Zenit coach Andre Villas-Boas will seek a way to overcome visiting compatriots and Zenit's excellent home record justifies their status as favourites: Zenit won all three of their home group games, scoring seven times and conceding only twice. Benfica have a poor record in Russia (1-4-2, including defeats on each of their last four trips) but know that scoring just once means Zenit would need to score three times to go through.

A cagey game is therefore likely: Zenit will attack while being wary of conceding the goal that would put them in a perilous position, while Benfica will be defensive and judiciously pick their moments to hit on the break. Given their strong home stats, Zenit are a smart bet to win on the night, although there is no guarantee that it will be enough to earn them a last-eight spot.

ESPN Chalk pick: Zenit Saint Petersburg (+108)

Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Asian handicap: Chelsea 0 (+105) vs. PSG 0 (-112)
3-way line: Chelsea +186 / PSG +160 / Draw +250
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 26 percent Draw
Total: 2.5 (Over +107, Under -117)

These two sides served up a terrific first leg, with PSG the better side and deservedly running out 2-1 winners but Chelsea contributing fully to an absorbing encounter. At first glance it comes as something of a surprise to find that PSG are favourites to win at Stamford Bridge, although the way the tie is balanced plays into the hands of the visitors, who can be a devastating counter-attacking side on their day.

Chelsea have to score to stand any chance of going through, so even if the hosts take a cautious approach in the early stages, they will need to open up and attack at some point. PSG defend solidly through retaining possession effectively, and the pace and directness of South American duo Lucas Moura and Angel di Maria makes them a massive threat on the break. Given their one-goal advantage and tremendous away record both domestically and in Europe this season (16-2-2 in all competitions), it is hard to see PSG losing on the night.

The draw is worth considering as that would be enough for PSG to make the quarterfinals, but the visitors on the handicap is the selection as Laurent Blanc's side are rarely willing to do the bare minimum.

ESPN Chalk pick: PSG 0 Asian handicap (-112)

James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He also worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (UK).
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It was a fair question. Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman, in detailing the timeline of Steven Stamkos' recovery from a blood clot Saturday, said what you’d expect the general manager to say: Stamkos’ injury is an opportunity for other players on the team. The injury, along with Anton Stralman's, will have to be a rallying point for the Lightning, to play well until they come back.

Yzerman played a long time, on some great teams. So the follow-up question during his meeting with the Tampa Bay media was a natural: Do you remember an example of a great player getting injured and the team thriving in the playoffs without him?

Standing on a podium in front of cameras while announcing the seriousness of your captain’s injury is a hard time for immediate memory lane recall, so Yzerman paused a moment. He tried to think of an example and joked that the best one wasn’t one he necessarily wanted to highlight.

“I got hurt and the team was actually better without me,” Yzerman said. “I don’t remember the year.”

He was also quick to say that he doesn’t anticipate that being the case with Stamkos. This is, after all, a player he’s trying to re-sign after the season.

Like Craig Custance's Facebook page to stay up to date on all of his stories and analysis.

But the example he gave was accurate. The year Yzerman was referring to was 1988, when he was a 22-year-old captain of the Red Wings having one of his most productive seasons of his career. He suffered a knee injury in early March and missed 13 playoff games before returning to play in the Campbell Conference finals against the Oilers.

"Adam Oates had a huge playoff that year," wrote Red Wings GM Ken Holland in an e-mail Sunday. “He got Steve’s ice time.”

There are enough talented, young players on the Lightning roster for one of them to emerge as Tampa Bay’s Adam Oates. In fact, they need that kind of performance to survive while Stamkos recovers.

“It’s getting unexpected performances from guys who weren’t necessarily expected -- that’s what we’re going to need,” Yzerman said.

That player could be a guy like Alex Killorn, who was great in the playoffs last year, with nine goals. Or maybe a guy like Vladislav Namestnikov, who has nearly doubled his goal total from last season. Or perhaps this is the ultimate redemption opportunity for Jonathan Drouin.

A source with the Lightning confirmed that Drouin won’t be an immediate call up because he’s day to day with an injury. But he is a natural candidate to become that player.

One NHL scout saw him play recently in Syracuse, New York, and saw a player capable of helping.

“Some good, some not so good. Scored a nice goal,” texted the scout. “Just has to learn to play a safer and smarter game so coaches can trust putting him out there.”

This might not be the ideal time of year to find out if Drouin is ready to play a safer game, but Tampa might have to take that chance.

Nine other takeaways from the NHL weekend:
2. The other big Stamkos question

You can’t help but wonder whether or not Stamkos has played his final game with the Lightning. If so, it’s no way for him to go out. He’s been so monumental in the solidification of that market as a fantastic hockey city. He certainly deserves better.

Yzerman stressed that this injury, in no way, impacts the Lightning’s desire to sign him to a contract extension after this season.

“It doesn’t change my desire, our desire, my goal -- our hope is No. 1 he comes back and plays this year,” Yzerman said. “We want Stammer to remain a Tampa Bay Lightning. We’re hoping at the right time we can make that happen.”

3. Injury bug making the rounds this spring

Yzerman was right in saying that nobody is going to feel sorry for the Lightning and their injuries, at least not among their rivals trying to win playoff games. But there may be some comfort in knowing that the Lightning are far from alone among contenders dealing with serious injuries.

“Every team is dealing with it, every day,” Yzerman said. “Just read Marc-Andre Fleury has a concussion. [Frederik] Andersen out in Anaheim is out. [Corey] Crawford is out in Chicago. Every team is dealing with this. It’s part of what makes it really difficult to win championships -- staying healthy.”

4. The Penguins' savior

The Fleury injury is another tough blow for a Penguins team that continues to win without Evgeni Malkin and Olli Maatta. But the early returns on Matt Murray certainly look encouraging. He played in back-to-back games this weekend and stopped 52 of 54 shots on goal in earning wins against the Islanders and Flyers, a pair of teams fighting for their playoff lives.

GM Jim Rutherford resisted fairly aggressive attempts at the deadline for teams trying to pry Murray from the Penguins. One Western Conference team really made a push for him.

“He’s untouchable,” concluded an executive from that team right before the deadline. “We tried multiple angles.”

That decision may end up being the best one of the deadline for Rutherford.

5. Murray's got what it takes

New Jersey Devils coach John Hynes knows Murray well from their time together in the Penguins organization. Count him among those who think he’s more than capable of being a No. 1 goalie in the playoffs.

“He has good experience from OHL and AHL playoff series,” Hynes wrote in a text Sunday. “He is very even-keeled and knows how to manage himself through a series. He is young but very mature mentally.”

6. Big area of concern for Detroit

The Red Wings worked their way into a playoff position during the weekend with big wins against the Wild and Maple Leafs, but you can’t help but notice the red minus-12 in goal differential next to Detroit in the standings. Last season, the Ducks had the lowest goal differential among playoff teams, at plus-10. The Kings missed the playoffs at plus-15.

The Red Wings have been overly reliant on winning one-goal games, and that goal differential suggests their hold on a playoff spot is tenuous at best.

Detroit plays both Philadelphia (at home) and Boston (on the road) this week in games that will determine whether or not the playoff streak survives.

Even with the Saturday win, one NHL scout thinks Detroit needs to find another gear against the Bruins and Flyers that the Red Wings didn’t show against the Maple Leafs.

“They won’t beat either if they play the same as [Saturday],” the scout said.

7. A suggestion for the Rangers

Strong words here from New York Post’s hockey writer Larry Brooks on the struggles right now with the Rangers' defense.

His solution is playing time for Dylan McIlrath at the expense of Dan Boyle and Dan Girardi. The Rangers' defense has only one player (Keith Yandle) with a Corsi for percentage over 50 percent. Girardi is at an alarming 41.6 percent, and appears to be weighing down Ryan McDonagh. When the two of them are on the ice together, the Rangers control 42.5 percent of the even-strength shot attempts. When McDonagh is playing with anybody else, that number jumps to 53.1 percent.

McDonagh and McIlrath are at 50.7 percent when they play together, so Brooks’ suggestion seems very reasonable.

8. Coach frustration, Exhibit A

Colorado head coach Patrick Roy took exception to Matt Duchene's celebration following his 30th goal of the season Sunday, a goal that cut Colorado’s deficit against the Blues to 4-1 late in the third period. Duchene said all the right things after the game, but the damage had been done. Roy didn’t like that Duchene thrust both arms in the air after scoring a goal that didn’t have a lot of impact on the game.

According to The Denver Post, Roy ripped into the celebration.

“Big cheer. Are you kidding me?” Roy said. “What is that?”

Roy also questioned the leadership of the Avalanche core.

"Our core hasn't proved that they have the leadership to bring this team to another level," Roy said, according to The Denver Post. "Eventually, we have to admit, (right)? We need more from these guys. These guys need to prove to us that they're capable of carrying this team."

9. Is Duchene the problem?

If the Avalanche ultimately double down on the team of GM Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy calling the shots in Colorado, it sure looks like there will be a shake up of the core, with Duchene a prime candidate to be dealt. If that happens, that will be the third high-profile center to leave the organization, following Paul Stastny and Ryan O'Reilly. Shipping talented centers out is a really hard way to build a championship roster. Sakic should know that as well as anyone.

Rather than shake up the core, maybe there’s a solution that includes building a team and playing a style that isn’t so dependent on the goalie playing lights out every night.

10. Coach frustration, Exhibit B

As upset as Roy was about the Duchene goal, he doesn’t win the award for most frustrated coach this weekend. Those honors belong to Edmonton head coach Todd McLellan, who shredded his team’s effort following a loss to Calgary on Saturday.

“I don’t know if there’s a number big enough to describe how disappointed that effort is,” McLellan told the media after the loss, then he ran through a laundry list of areas in which the Oilers were outplayed. “Our shift length was terrible. They played four games in six nights and we’re going to go for 55-second shifts … that’s the exact attitude and bulls--- we’re trying to eliminate here.”

Now that’s a core group that needs a change.
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Re 7 ... there's a decent chance 3 of our should-be top 6 don't play. Should be a very fun playoff season.
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The NHL powers have taken a slight step back, especially in the West. That’s not a shot at teams like the Blackhawks and Kings. They’re still great, but they lack the air of invincibility they once had.

“Chicago has been much deeper in years past than they are now,” a Western Conference assistant coach said. “St. Louis is not as detailed as they’ve been in the past. Los Angeles, they’re a really good team. Well-coached. Hard. Their great guys are so good, but having [Vincent] Lecavalier and [Andy] Andreoff and these guys in their lineup -- it’s nowhere near what they’ve had in the past.”

It has created an opening that will give the East champ a shot. It also makes picking playoff winners that much tougher. You can't pencil in any teams to advance right into the next round anymore.

Is that going to stop us from trying? Absolutely not. Here’s a look at your first-round winners:

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Florida Panthers vs. No. 4 New York Islanders

This is a nice matchup for the Panthers, who are capable of quietly making a postseason run if they get some scoring. They were strong at even strength this season, scoring 56.2 percent of the goals in their games when playing at 5-on-5. They were also a much better possession team down the stretch than the Islanders, controlling 52.0 percent of the even-strength shot attempts since March 1, compared to 47.1 percent for the Isles (per war-on-ice.com).

There should be a healthy edge for the Panthers in goal, with the experienced Roberto Luongo going up against Thomas Greiss. One possible area the Islanders can expose is on the power play, where the Panthers' penalty kill was just No. 24 overall (79.5 percent), while the Islanders had an above-average power play this season (18.3 percent).

The pick: Panthers in six.


No. 2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. No. 3 Detroit Red Wings

The injuries to Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman have been the great equalizer in this series, and Tyler Johnson might not be 100 percent, either.

“Detroit will match up with them fine because Tampa is the walking wounded,” one Eastern Conference scout said on Sunday.

A look at the season-long numbers doesn’t bode well for Detroit. Tampa has an even-strength goals-for percentage of 54.0 percent compared to 48.3 percent for the Red Wings, which suggests a potential scoring advantage for Tampa. But that doesn’t factor in Stamkos’ injury.

If Detroit aims to rely on its power play, the Lightning penalty kill has been pretty good this season, at 84 percent. And then there’s the big gap in goal.

Even with the injuries, Tampa Bay should be able to squeak out this series.

The pick: Lightning in seven.


No. 1 Washington Capitals vs. No. 4 Philadelphia Flyers

In terms of even-strength goal scoring, no team was more proficient than the Capitals during the regular season. They scored 56.3 percent of the even-strength goals in their games this season, No. 1 in the NHL. They have a healthy edge over the Flyers, who are at 51.0 percent in that category. Since March 1, these two teams have been close possession-wise, with the Capitals controlling 52.8 percent of the even-strength shot attempts and the Flyers controlling 52.5 percent.

The Flyers' penalty kill was No. 22 in the league this season, so there’s an opportunity for the potent Capitals power play to do damage. The Capitals may take a game or two to get into the playoff mode the Flyers have been in for months now, but once they do, look out.

The pick: Capitals in five.


No. 2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 3 New York Rangers

The Penguins' push down the stretch has made them a real threat to challenge the Capitals as the most dangerous team in the Eastern Conference. The problem is they have to get past a Rangers team that has handled Pittsburgh in past postseasons. Both teams did well this season scoring at even strength, but the possession numbers are very much in Pittsburgh’s advantage, especially since March 1. Since that date, they’ve controlled 54.9 percent of the even-strength shot attempts in their games, compared to 46.3 percent for the Rangers.

The Rangers have depth and talent up front, but one coach felt like their style of play doesn’t fit the personnel.

“They try to play a game that doesn’t quite suit them,” he said. “They don’t play enough with the puck for me.”

The Rangers' penalty kill has also struggled this season and is fifth-worst in the league. That can be a killer come playoff time.

But as always, Henrik Lundqvist is the equalizer. He’s the best goalie in the playoffs, and if the Rangers move on, it’ll be because he stole this series.

The pick: Penguins in six.


Western Conference

No. 1 Dallas Stars vs. No. 4 Minnesota Wild

For a team that finished the regular season with 109 points, there sure doesn’t seem to be a lot of love for the Stars this postseason.

“I think they do a lot of really good things that win in the regular season,” one coach said. “I don’t know that they’re going to do what’s needed in a seven-game playoff series.”

That said, they do have the luxury of playing the Wild, a team that has been known to find its way out of the first round but didn’t show enough this season to strike fear into the heavy favorites.

“I don’t see Minnesota upsetting anybody,” the coach said. “I just don’t.”

Since March 1, neither team has been especially great possession-wise. The Stars have controlled 49.2 percent of the even-strength shot attempts since that date, and the Wild are at just 46.7 percent in that stretch. There’s a good chance that Dallas plays both of its goalies, Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, in this series -- one area of advantage for Minnesota -- but there’s a real possibility that the potent Stars power play exposes a Wild penalty kill that is the worst among playoff teams, at 77.9 percent.

The pick: Stars in six.


No. 2 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 3 Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks are the defending champs, and a team led by Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane is always dangerous, but this isn’t quite the same team as in years past.

“I’m a little concerned about Chicago, to be honest,” one coach said. “I think they’re a little banged up. The last couple playoff matchups against St. Louis, the Blues chased the Blackhawks around the rink the whole series. ... This time, I think they’ll be smarter. Chicago can be beat.”

The Blackhawks scored just 48.9 percent of the goals in their games at even strength, a surprisingly low number. Since March 1, they controlled just 49.9 percent of the even-strength shot attempts. Their penalty kill has been average all season and finished No. 21 in the league. And there are concerns that go beyond their defensive depth.

The Blues have an extremely healthy 54.4 percent Corsi for percentage since March 1. Their penalty kill is third in the league. Their goalie finished the regular season with the best save percentage in the league. It’s all there for the Blues; they just have to do it. And as we know for teams playing against Chicago, that’s easier said than done.

The pick: Blues in seven.


No. 1 Anaheim Ducks vs. No. 4 Nashville Predators

The reward for winning the Pacific isn’t especially great. The Predators have played Anaheim well this season, winning two of three against the Ducks. Despite that matchup concern, the Ducks were one of the best teams in the league after Bruce Boudreau shifted the focus to defensive hockey in Anaheim.

“I don’t know if you can bet against Anaheim right now,” one coach said.

We might not know who will play a majority of the games in goal, but it might not matter. Both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson had better seasons than Pekka Rinne.

“I worry about the goalie,” one NHL scout said on Sunday about Nashville.

Rinne had a .900 save percentage in March and April, not exactly the kind of number you want out of your goalie heading into the playoffs. Otherwise, this should be a tight series. The Predators were the better possession team down the stretch and were a better scoring team at even strength than the Ducks were this season. The Ducks' penalty kill was great this season, so Nashville will have to win this series at even strength. That’s a tall order against Anaheim.

The pick: Ducks in seven.


No. 2 Los Angeles Kings vs. No. 3 San Jose Sharks

This is the matchup we all wanted to see because it’s an opportunity for revenge for the Sharks after the Kings came back from a 3-0 series deficit in 2014 to eliminate them.

Now, we all might have wanted this matchup, but when I asked Sharks coach Peter DeBoer if his players wanted a piece of the Kings, he laughed.

“I don’t think anyone would wish to play the L.A. Kings,” he said.

The Kings were a possession machine during the course of the season, as always, but since March 1, the Sharks actually hung with them, controlling 52.9 percent of the shot attempts, compared to 53.8 percent for the Kings. Neither team has the kind of shutdown penalty kill you’d want to see out of a Stanley Cup contender, so there’s opportunity for both on that front.

The Kings are a powerhouse, but this is a really, really tough matchup for them, even without the additional rivalry factor.

“Their support guys are NHL players now,” one coach said of the Sharks. “And their big guys know how to win. They’re going to be a tough out.”

Having a big-game goalie like Jonathan Quick against two inexperienced playoff goalies in Martin Jones or James Reimer is an advantage for the Kings. But this is a closer series than people might realize, and we give the Sharks a slight emotional edge because of the revenge factor and Joe Thornton's high-level play.

The pick: Sharks in seven.
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govmentchedda
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by govmentchedda »

http://espn.go.com/blog/craig-custance/ ... urnsHedman

Thanks in advance. Gotta see what Custance thinks Hedman's new contract will be.
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Ryan
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The Hedman-revelant part:
Let’s focus on the Class of 2017 unrestricted free agent defensemen, because it’s a fascinating class. Here are the top three:

1. Brent Burns, Sharks

2. Victor Hedman, Lightning

3. Kevin Shattenkirk, Blues

The interesting thing is that we haven’t seen a major defenseman hit unrestricted free agency since Ryan Suter signed with the Wild, and that was before contract term limitations were added to the CBA. So Suter’s contract can’t really be a comparable, because there are seasons tagged on at the end to drive the annual salary down.

Over the last several seasons, teams have locked up their young defensemen to long-term deals long before they get to this point. In Burns and Hedman, we have two Norris Trophy-caliber defensemen, and all the guys in that conversation have been signed for years with wildly different forms of contracts; that's players like Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban.

So, especially for Hedman, there’s not a great comparable. The closest you can get for Burns would be Dustin Byfuglien. Like Burns, Byfuglien is 31 years old. Coincidentally, both have moved between forward and defense and play a big, physical offensive game.

As good as Byfuglien is, Burns is at another level. But for the sake of term and comparison, let’s use Byfuglien’s five-year deal worth $7.6 million per season as the low end for Burns.

All of these defensemen are free to sign with their current teams after July 1, and if Burns does, he’ll be signing a contract that will kick in when he’s 32 years old. The reality is you’re getting declining seasons in there, and Sharks GM Doug Wilson has typically been conservative with term. When everybody else in the NHL was signing stars to crazy long-term deals with tails that extended forever, he was signing Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau to reasonable contracts. The payoff there is that he’s not stuck with aging stars with five years left on their contracts, unlike some of his colleagues around the NHL.

The flip side is that there’s no way I’m signing for anything less than $8 million per season if I’m Brent Burns.

As for Hedman, the closest comparable would be Subban, who signed an eight-year contract worth $9 million per season. There are restricted free agent years in there, so that lowers the number some, but Subban is more productive offensively, which drives up the number. As is the case with Steven Stamkos -- who, you may have heard, is hitting free agency this summer -- Hedman might have to leave money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay, just because of all the great players there. My guess, and I haven’t talked to either side on this, would be it falls in the eight-year, $9-10 million per season range.

Shattenkirk will want to watch the Keith Yandle negotiations closely. They are similar players in that they create a lot of offense from the back end, and they’re close in age. Yandle’s deal will help set the market for Shattenkirk, and the Byfuglien contract in Winnipeg helped Yandle’s cause, since it eliminated his biggest competition on the market.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Isn't Byfuglien's deal a bit of an outlier given that Winnipeg is a small cap team that can afford to pay more AAV to avoid later years?
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govmentchedda
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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No thanks, please delete, don't like what I saw.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The Burns discussion has me wringing my hands, too.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Burns seems even tougher. Hedman is just what you'd have to pay; Burns is what you'd have to pay and whether you should pay.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Can someone please help a Sabo out and let me see this story?

Muchas gracias.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_ ... k-draft-10
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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The mock draft below, our first to preview 2017, projects all 32 first-round picks. It goes without saying that a lot will change between now and April 27, including the draft order, team needs and the grades of many of our top prospects, as we continue our tape evaluations and dig deeper into intangibles and medical status. Some of the players included here are underclassmen who haven't yet decided whether they'll enter the 2017 draft, and some teams will inevitably undergo regime changes in the coming weeks.

But this mock draft can serve as an early primer on where the draft board stands right now, and the prospects whom teams could be considering with their picks in 2017.

Two important notes: 1) We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project what the order will be at the end of the season, with the three traded first-round picks accounted for. Read more about the FPI here. 2) All juniors or redshirt sophomores are noted with an asterisk.


1. Cleveland Browns

Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

Let's get this out of the way: No QB in this class is worth the No. 1 pick. The Browns just need more good football players. Allen is a total game-plan wrecker along the defense front (13 tackles for loss, 15 QB hurries). Texas A&M pass-rusher Myles Garrett also figures to be in the mix here.



2. San Francisco 49ers

Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M*

Considering the lack of elite QB/WR talent in this class, the 49ers would be thrilled to see Garrett fall to them at No. 2. Tied with LSU RB Leonard Fournette for my best grade in this class, Garrett is the most disruptive pass-rusher in college football, with 21 sacks and 20 QB hurries in 23 games the past two seasons.


3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jamal Adams, S, LSU*

Assuming he leaves school early, Adams will be one of the most complete players in this draft. He can stuff the run as an in-the-box safety, he can cover and he's a great leader to bring into your locker room. The Jaguars need to continue to invest resources in their secondary.


4. Chicago Bears

Jabrill Peppers, S/OLB, Michigan*

The Bears are another team likely to be in the market for a QB this offseason without a good option at the top of the draft. Peppers would make sense, given Chicago's lack of difference-makers in the secondary. He's a true hybrid player, with the speed and athleticism to thrive in space and the toughness to play bigger than his 205-pound frame.


5. Tennessee Titans (from Rams)

Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State*

The Titans have the good fortune of not needing to even consider a quarterback with the pick they received in the Jared Goff trade. Lattimore could use some more game experience, but if he leaves Columbus early, CB-needy teams such as the Titans could be enticed by the natural talent he has displayed on the perimeter in his first year as a starter.


6. New York Jets

Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama

Williams is disruptive -- if a little inconsistent -- with excellent first-step quickness off the edge. Nearly all of his tackles for loss this season came against SEC opponents (14 of the 15.5 total). A pass-rusher could very well be near the top of the Jets' needs by the time April rolls around.


7. Carolina Panthers

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU*

Fournette hasn't budged from the No. 1 spot in my prospect rankings all season. He is a rare talent for the position, the best college running back I've evaluated since Adrian Peterson in 2007. And though he has been hampered by an ankle injury all season, he has put up off-the-charts production when healthy. It would be great value for the Panthers if Fournette were to fall out of the top five.


8. New Orleans Saints

Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama*

At 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, Humphrey has ideal size for the cornerback position. He has 27 games of experience against high-level competition in his career, racking up five interceptions and 12 pass breakups. The Saints need to continue to add pieces to their defense, particularly in the secondary.


9. Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)

Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA

Taking the versatile Jonathan Allen with the No. 1 overall pick would allow the Browns to target McKinley with the second of their first-round picks. The UCLA pass-rusher has elite speed off the edge, which has helped make him one of the biggest draft risers this season (18.0 tackles for loss 10.0 sacks in 11 games). Florida State RB Dalvin Cook could also be in the conversation here for an offense that will be looking for more home run hitters.


10. San Diego Chargers

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson*

At 6-foot-3, Williams profiles as a legitimate No. 1 weapon at the next level. He shows an excellent ability to create late separation when the ball is in the air, scoring 10 touchdowns this season. Coming off a scary neck injury to open the 2015 campaign, Williams has done it all for the Tigers in his return to the field.


11. Arizona Cardinals

Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama

A tackling machine who flies to the ball, Foster shows a good combination of agility and speed for a 240-pounder. He's one of the 10 best players in this class, but positional value could cause him to slip a little bit. QB is also a possibility for Arizona, given Carson Palmer's age (37) and declining play.


12. Cincinnati Bengals

Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee*

Barnett's production was outstanding in his first two seasons at Tennessee, but he has taken it to another level in 2016 with an SEC-leading 12.0 sacks. He has good size (6-3, 265) and agility and a consistent motor. The Bengals need more speed at defensive end and linebacker.


13. Indianapolis Colts

Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama*

Andrew Luck has been constantly under siege behind an offensive line that is still searching for answers. So whether it's in the first round or in free agency, the Colts need to devote resources to protect Luck and improve the run game. Robinson isn't an elite pass-blocker, but he's a plug-and-play right tackle who can develop at the next level.


14. Buffalo Bills

Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin

Ramczyk has just one year of full-time starting experience at the FBS level after transferring from UW-Stevens Points (Division III), but he's loaded with talent. With a long and sturdy frame (6-6, 314), he's very effective in pass protection and as a run-blocker. Cornerback and wide receiver could also be options for the Bills.


15. Baltimore Ravens

Charles Harris, DE, Missouri*

A twitchy athlete off the edge, Harris led the SEC with 18.5 tackles for loss in 2015 and finished this season with 5.5 sacks and six QB hurries in his final four games. He has tons of raw ability as a pass-rusher, and Baltimore needs to continue to add youth off the edge with Terrell Suggs turning 35 next season.


16. Miami Dolphins

O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

Lucky for teams like the Dolphins who have a need at the position, this is a loaded class with tight ends at the top. Howard, Michigan's Jake Butt and Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges all look like top-40 picks. Howard's size-speed combination gives him a lot of upside, but his production has been streaky in Alabama's run-heavy offense.


17. Tennessee Titans

John Ross, WR, Washington*

Ross has always had great speed, but he improved his route running this year and saw immediate dividends with a 17-touchdown season. If he runs as fast as expected at the NFL combine, he could very well be a first-rounder.


18. Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)

Teez Tabor, CB, Florida*

Tabor has terrific ball skills, with four interceptions, five pass breakups and a defensive TD in 11 games this season -- and that comes on the heels of a 2015 season in which he had four interceptions and 14 pass breakups. Tabor's natural anticipation skills would fill a big need for the Eagles.


19. Houston Texans

Carl Lawson, OLB, Auburn*

Not many pass-rushers in this class can match Lawson's combination of production, upside and intangibles. He's a film junkie who posted an astounding 24 QB hurries and nine sacks this season. Plus, he's an elite run defender. Lawson's medical reports will be critical; he endured back-to-back injury-plagued seasons in 2014 and 2015.


20. Green Bay Packers

Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State*

Yes, I know GM Ted Thompson has never drafted a running back this high, but there's no doubt the Packers need more explosive playmakers like Cook, who ranks tied for second among all Power 5 RBs this season with 15 touches of 25 yards or more. It would be good value to get a top-10 player at this stage of the first round.


21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State*

McDowell has supreme talent, and he can be a menace as an inside rusher when he's locked in. But McDowell could fall a bit, because he's not the consistent grinder that typically comes out of Michigan State. Tampa will be in the market for more pass-rushers.


22. Washington Redskins

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC*

Watching Smith-Schuster's tape, it's clear that he loves the game and works hard. He's not a burner by any stretch, but his good size (6-2, 220), ball skills and toughness will keep him in the first-round mix for teams with a need at the position, such as Washington, which could lose Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson to free agency.


23. Denver Broncos

Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida*

Brantley can be a load to handle in the run game, as he showed in back-to-back games this season against LSU and Florida State (five tackles for loss). His combination of quickness and functional strength would make him a good fit for the Broncos, who will be looking for help along the D-line this offseason.


24. Detroit Lions

Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida

Davis finds so many ways to affect a game. He makes plays in the backfield (six tackles for loss and five QB hurries) and is athletic enough to hold up in coverage. Davis' game is similar to that of Bucs OLB Kwon Alexander because of his excellent range and a relentless motor.


25. New York Giants

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas*

Foreman is one of the most underrated prospects in this class. You can tell by looking at him that he's a load to bring down (6-1, 249), but what makes him special are his quick feet. Foreman, who led the FBS in rushing this season with 2,028 yards, also has some ability as a blocker and pass-catcher.


26. Pittsburgh Steelers

Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan

If you were watching the Michigan-Ohio State game, you might've noticed Charlton's game-wrecking ability (2.5 sacks). He was Michigan's best pass-rusher this season (nine sacks in 10 games). He has the versatility to convert to a 3-4 OLB in the Steelers' base defense. Jarvis Jones and James Harrison are both set to be free agents.


27. Atlanta Falcons

Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida*

I haven't done as much tape on Wilson as I have on his teammate Teez Tabor, but some scouts I've talked to think Wilson's ceiling is higher. At 6-foot-1, he has a good length/speed combination, and he's experienced, with 38 games played, including 23 starts. The Falcons need to find a way to bolster their secondary and defensive line.


28. Oakland Raiders

Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan

Lewis has some size limitations (5-11, 186), which makes him a bit of a reach here, but he's the best pure cover corner in college football. He had two interceptions and 10 pass breakups, despite opponents often shying away from throwing to his side of the field. The Raiders' secondary has been an issue this season as they continue to rebuild the defense.


29. Seattle Seahawks

Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame*

McGlinchey has held firm that he's likely to return to school, but for now he's eligible. While he'd benefit from one more year of physical development and technique work, an OT-needy team such as the Seahawks would give McGlinchey a long look because of his length and upside if he decided to leave early.


30. Kansas City Chiefs

Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina*

Inside linebacker and safety will be bigger needs, but everyone knows how much Andy Reid likes to draft quarterbacks. Trubisky has some red flags as a prospect, including just 12 college starts to his name, but the opportunity to draft a quarterback to sit and develop behind Alex Smith could entice the Chiefs' front office. Trubisky has shown impressive accuracy (68.9 completion percentage) and an ability to limit mistakes (only four turnovers all season).


31. Dallas Cowboys

Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

The Cowboys will be in the market for defensive line help this offseason; I'm just not sure who will be available this late in the first round. Thomas has good size (6-3, 273) and strength, he's stout against the run and he rushes the QB with quickness and power (13 tackles for loss, seven sacks and seven QB hurries).


32. New England Patriots

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford*

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady would have fun figuring out creative ways to utilize McCaffrey's versatile skill set. He's a true threat in both the run and pass game, finishing his college career with nearly 4,000 rushing yards and 1,206 receiving yards. He has a rare combination of vision, lateral agility and acceleration, which shows up in the return game, too.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Many thanks, Chedda.
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