2018 MLB Week 1

[Ryan]

Bartolo Colon’s first game against Boston was 3 weeks after the Tim Duncan lottery. The 8-9 hitters in his last game pitching FOR Boston were Alex Cora and Kevin Cash.

[mister d]

I'm at a weird spot of having lusted for Machado for 5+ years but also thinking there's no way we can get enough value over the next 4 months to justify the cost.

[degenerasian]

Descalso was brought in to pitch for the D-Backs.

IN THE FOURTH INNING!

The Rockies Pitcher Marquez took Descalso deep.

[Ryan]

I'm at a weird spot of having lusted for Machado for 5+ years but also thinking there's no way we can get enough value over the next 4 months to justify the cost.

Did you factor in making the Orioles a little weaker for 8 more otherwise losses?

[EnochRoot]

I'm at a weird spot of having lusted for Machado for 5+ years but also thinking there's no way we can get enough value over the next 4 months to justify the cost.

If a trade is made, the Yankees will extend him with an opt-out before his 30th birthday.

Book it.

[mister d]

Sure, but if he wants to be a Yankee (strongly assumed), he can sign in the offseason and we keep all other assets. And while he's clearly better than Andujar (and Drury), its not nearly the type of upgrade you'd see from acquiring a starter.

[phxgators]

Descalso was brought in to pitch for the D-Backs.

IN THE FOURTH INNING!

The Rockies Pitcher Marquez took Descalso deep.

Family and I were at the game last night. I've never seen anything like that. 18 runs in the first 4 innings, 2 position players pitching. Really fun to watch. My oldest thought it was going to be a rough night for the Rockies after the Dbacks hit a homer in the first. The Rockies recovered nicely.

[sancarlos]

Sure, but if he wants to be a Yankee (strongly assumed), he can sign in the offseason and we keep all other assets. And while he's clearly better than Andujar (and Drury), its not nearly the type of upgrade you'd see from acquiring a starter.

If they think they can extend him, the argument for getting him now (besides the benefit he brings this season) is keeping him away from a rival, no?

[mister d]

Who? Houston has Bregman + Correa, Boston has Devers + Boegarts, Cleveland has Ramirez + Lindor.

[bfj]

#justfuckingtradehimalready

Orioles' luck dictates he takes a Scherzer fastball off his hand, or fouls one off of his foot and any handshake deal disappears and we get nothing. I couldn't possibly care any less about seeing him in an O's uniform at the ASG.

[mister d]

I’m now deep in curiosity about where “Andujar straight up” or with a 3rd piece prospect would rank against what Baltimore will get. I’d do that one.

[RSmith]

I’m now deep in curiosity about where “Andujar straight up” or with a 3rd piece prospect would rank against what Baltimore will get. I’d do that one.

I think Andujar is going to be very, very good. Actually, he's OPS+'ing 118 so far, so perhaps more appropriate to say I think he'll continue to be very, very good for a long time.

Honestly, given the history of what such rentals have returned the past couple or three seasons, I think the O's would be lucky to get as good as Andujar straight up. Give the difference in years of control, I'd want to think extremely hard before doing that trade, were I Brian Cashman...

ETA: Granted, Machado has mostly been a good fielding SS/3B in his career (though not this year -- 19 fielding runs below average), whereas Andujar has thus far been a somewhat below-average 3B, so positional value and fielding favor Machado. Machado is certainly the better player, all things considered, but it's not a blow-out, and I have a very hard time coming to the conclusion that the relatively small upgrade Machado would provide, for two to three months, is worth giving up five cost-controlled years of Andujar, not to mention that you would then probably have to move Gregorius to third, all whilst presumably foregoing the opportunity to address the much more pressing need in the rotation...

[mister d]

Machado is less than three years older than Andujar and at this point has to play himself off of HoF pace. Andujar’s ceiling isn’t there, if anything close to a one for one was on the table the Yankees would have to.

[RSmith]

Machado is less than three years older than Andujar and at this point has to play himself off of HoF pace. Andujar’s ceiling isn’t there, if anything close to a one for one was on the table the Yankees would have to.

Consider this -- based on WAR (so, including defensive value or lack thereof), Machado is on pace for an Edgar Martinez-ish career. I chose to compare Machado to Martinez specifically because Martinez is not in the HoF, though I think he belongs, and he *might* yet make it. So, I suppose it's fair to say Machado is on a HoF pace (his year-to-year WAR beats Harper's, save that monster 2015), but he's not Mike Trout (i.e., he's not on a clear, no-doubt HoF pace).

Of course, that's beside your main point. Machado is certainly the better player, but I could easily see Andujar having four or five all-star calibre seasons over the next five years, at a relatively controllable salary. Trading Andujar straight up for Machado, you would be giving up all of that (admittedly, projected) value, for just the marginal value of Machado over Andujar over the remainder of this season, plus whatever value you attach to the presumably increased chance of signing Machado after the season, plus the extra value you assess if you really think that adding Machado is likely to be the difference between winning/getting to a WS and not. If you think this is a good trade, I presume you're banking heavily on the last of those; I'm not necessarily convinced. I'm certainly not sure I *wouldn't* make the trade, but I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer.

[mister d]

Probably should be said I think if Machado were traded to the Yankees he’d remain a Yankee, so I see it as a long term replacement. I also kinda think Andujar is more or less fully realized at this point; he’s a mediocre defensive 3B and a great pure hitter but one who probably won’t ever be selective. What I’d think is his realistic ceiling, if he reaches it, is less than present day Machado.

[mister d]

And agreed he’s not Trout, but that’s because Trout isn’t on pace for a HoF career, he’s on pace for a “best player ever” career. I do think that blurs how great Harper and Machado and the rest are.

[A_B]

Machado is less than three years older than Andujar and at this point has to play himself off of HoF pace. Andujar’s ceiling isn’t there, if anything close to a one for one was on the table the Yankees would have to.

Consider this -- based on WAR (so, including defensive value or lack thereof), Machado is on pace for an Edgar Martinez-ish career. I chose to compare Machado to Martinez specifically because Martinez is not in the HoF, though I think he belongs, and he *might* yet make it. So, I suppose it's fair to say Machado is on a HoF pace (his year-to-year WAR beats Harper's, save that monster 2015), but he's not Mike Trout (i.e., he's not on a clear, no-doubt HoF pace).

Of course, that's beside your main point. Machado is certainly the better player, but I could easily see Andujar having four or five all-star calibre seasons over the next five years, at a relatively controllable salary. Trading Andujar straight up for Machado, you would be giving up all of that (admittedly, projected) value, for just the marginal value of Machado over Andujar over the remainder of this season, plus whatever value you attach to the presumably increased chance of signing Machado after the season, plus the extra value you assess if you really think that adding Machado is likely to be the difference between winning/getting to a WS and not. If you think this is a good trade, I presume you're banking heavily on the last of those; I'm not necessarily convinced. I'm certainly not sure I *wouldn't* make the trade, but I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer.

Are you just multiplying current war for machado vs number of years played? Because that would seem to discount defensive value, of which Martinez had none for the majority of his career and which will be fine for machado when he moves back to third at some point.

[A_B]

And yeah, Trout comparisons are null anymore. He’s off the charts. Malcolm gladeell should write an addendum.

[RSmith]

Probably should be said I think if Machado were traded to the Yankees he’d remain a Yankee, so I see it as a long term replacement.

That certainly makes a difference. But do you think that if the Yanks did not trade for him, and instead chose to pursue him after the season, the chance to sign him would be substantially less? I'm genuinely asking; I couldn't guess one way or the other.

I also kinda think Andujar is more or less fully realized at this point; he’s a mediocre defensive 3B and a great pure hitter but one who probably won’t ever be selective. What I’d think is his realistic ceiling, if he reaches it, is less than present day Machado.

I'm with you on his ceiling being less than what Machado is now. But I think he has sufficient physical tools that his defense could potentially be improved. Certainly, it would be great if he could up the walk rate and P/PA too, though I agree that's a bit more of an ask. Honestly though, if he could become even an averaged defensive 3B (which I think is not unrealistic), the bat is already good enough to make him at least a borderline all star.

[RSmith]

Machado is less than three years older than Andujar and at this point has to play himself off of HoF pace. Andujar’s ceiling isn’t there, if anything close to a one for one was on the table the Yankees would have to.

Consider this -- based on WAR (so, including defensive value or lack thereof), Machado is on pace for an Edgar Martinez-ish career. I chose to compare Machado to Martinez specifically because Martinez is not in the HoF, though I think he belongs, and he *might* yet make it. So, I suppose it's fair to say Machado is on a HoF pace (his year-to-year WAR beats Harper's, save that monster 2015), but he's not Mike Trout (i.e., he's not on a clear, no-doubt HoF pace).

Of course, that's beside your main point. Machado is certainly the better player, but I could easily see Andujar having four or five all-star calibre seasons over the next five years, at a relatively controllable salary. Trading Andujar straight up for Machado, you would be giving up all of that (admittedly, projected) value, for just the marginal value of Machado over Andujar over the remainder of this season, plus whatever value you attach to the presumably increased chance of signing Machado after the season, plus the extra value you assess if you really think that adding Machado is likely to be the difference between winning/getting to a WS and not. If you think this is a good trade, I presume you're banking heavily on the last of those; I'm not necessarily convinced. I'm certainly not sure I *wouldn't* make the trade, but I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer.

Are you just multiplying current war for machado vs number of years played? Because that would seem to discount defensive value, of which Martinez had none for the majority of his career and which will be fine for machado when he moves back to third at some point.

Nope. I'm look at average and variance of year-to-year WAR for Machado thus far, and for the similar period for Martinez's career (throwing out a couple of years where Martinez played substantially less than a half season). So that's absolutely accounting for the edge in defensive value Machado had before this year, at least as measured by WAR.

[RSmith]

Machado is less than three years older than Andujar and at this point has to play himself off of HoF pace. Andujar’s ceiling isn’t there, if anything close to a one for one was on the table the Yankees would have to.

Consider this -- based on WAR (so, including defensive value or lack thereof), Machado is on pace for an Edgar Martinez-ish career. I chose to compare Machado to Martinez specifically because Martinez is not in the HoF, though I think he belongs, and he *might* yet make it. So, I suppose it's fair to say Machado is on a HoF pace (his year-to-year WAR beats Harper's, save that monster 2015), but he's not Mike Trout (i.e., he's not on a clear, no-doubt HoF pace).

Of course, that's beside your main point. Machado is certainly the better player, but I could easily see Andujar having four or five all-star calibre seasons over the next five years, at a relatively controllable salary. Trading Andujar straight up for Machado, you would be giving up all of that (admittedly, projected) value, for just the marginal value of Machado over Andujar over the remainder of this season, plus whatever value you attach to the presumably increased chance of signing Machado after the season, plus the extra value you assess if you really think that adding Machado is likely to be the difference between winning/getting to a WS and not. If you think this is a good trade, I presume you're banking heavily on the last of those; I'm not necessarily convinced. I'm certainly not sure I *wouldn't* make the trade, but I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer.

Are you just multiplying current war for machado vs number of years played? Because that would seem to discount defensive value, of which Martinez had none for the majority of his career and which will be fine for machado when he moves back to third at some point.

Nope. I'm look at average and variance of year-to-year WAR for Machado thus far, and for the similar period for Martinez's career (throwing out a couple of years where Martinez played substantially less than a half season). So that's absolutely accounting for the edge in defensive value Machado had before this year, at least as measured by WAR.

[A_B]

Got you. That is surprising to me.

[mister d]

Andujar’s bat now might make him a borderline all-star but his patience might make him a guy the league can figure out. I don’t think his projection is all in one direction.

And with regards to the Martinez comp and admitting it’s an arbitrary cutoff, Machado already has two 6+ WAR seasons to Edgar’s career total of three. Which I think is probably high because the DH demerit needs work.

[RSmith]

Got you. That is surprising to me.

Me too, honestly.

(Sorry for the spurious post quoting my own post. It won't let me delete it as it's been replied to.)

[mister d]

And to the last point about Martinez’s WAR floor and Machado’s variability: If Machado were Edgar, he’d still be in the minors.

[RSmith]

Andujar’s bat now might make him a borderline all-star but his patience might make him a guy the league can figure out. I don’t think his projection is all in one direction.

Fair enough.

And with regards to the Martinez comp and admitting it’s an arbitrary cutoff, Machado already has two 6+ WAR seasons to Edgar’s career total of three. Which I think is probably high because the DH demerit needs work.

Where are you looking up your WAR? According to baseball-reference.com, Edgar had 5 seasons of 6+ (max of 7.0), and several more of 5.5+...

But yeah, just assigning zero defensive runs isn't sufficient, because a DH has no positional value (literally anyone can play there). Not sure what the current adjustment for that is exactly, honestly...

[mister d]

I use Fangraphs. They seem to make a better attempt at valuing defense.

[RSmith]

I use Fangraphs. They seem to make a better attempt at valuing defense.

Interesting. I'll read up on the differences...

[mister d]

I’d have to do it again, but I think DRS tended to have wider spreads and overvalue high variance positions like LF and 3B and maybe skewed too hard on singular plays, some of which I imagine are explainable by shifts. Once there’s full field f/x data both of those will be obsolete.

[RSmith]

I’d have to do it again, but I think DRS tended to have wider spreads and overvalue high variance positions like LF and 3B and maybe skewed too hard on singular plays, some of which I imagine are explainable by shifts. Once there’s full field f/x data both of those will be obsolete.

Agreed; you really need the fully detailed data to compute anything better than a rough correlation for defensive value.

[A_B]

I don’t use either. I just expect mister d to post shit I can agree with.

[RSmith]

I don’t use either. I just expect mister d to post shit I can agree with.

That's certainly one strategy. ;-)

[A_B]

I don’t use either. I just expect mister d to post shit I can agree with.

That's certainly one strategy. ;-)

Worked so far. Best analytics swamp guy since Tommyboy!

(It should be said this is a frigging high compliment since tommyboy literally works in sports analytics last I heard. He was. Good dude and I still regret kinda being a dick to him after. Hood to coast leg when I was about to die and he wanted to film me. Sorry, tommyboy!)

[RSmith]

I don’t use either. I just expect mister d to post shit I can agree with.

That's certainly one strategy. ;-)

Worked so far. Best analytics swamp guy since Tommyboy!

Hmm, I think I missed him...

[A_B]

I don’t use either. I just expect mister d to post shit I can agree with.

That's certainly one strategy. ;-)

Worked so far. Best analytics swamp guy since Tommyboy!

(It should be said this is a frigging high compliment since tommyboy literally works in sports analytics last I heard. He was. Good dude and I still regret kinda being a dick to him after. Hood to coast leg when I was about to die and he wanted to film me. Sorry, tommyboy!)

Also I fucked up a bill splitting at lunch when we arrived and he covered the tip and I feel bad about that. I owe that guy a dinner for sure. I say guarneschellis butter. Look me up tommyboy.

[A_B]

Sorry I highjacked.

I like that they are talking to guys on field. Neat. Obviously not an everyday thing but cool for an all star game.

[RSmith]

I hope Happ gets in the game. He deserves it.

[degenerasian]

I hope Happ gets in the game. He deserves it.

year of the home run, 9 homers in this game!

Happ is going to get a save! (maybe)

[RSmith]

I hope Happ gets in the game. He deserves it.

year of the home run, 9 homers in this game!

Happ is going to get a save! (maybe)

Still none out. Might not be a save situation! :)

[rass]

Hader discovered that the tweets had surfaced after he exited the game. When he arrived in the locker room, “my phone was blowing up,” he said. As the game came to a close, several of Hader’s family members and friends milled outside the clubhouse, all of them wearing all-star jerseys with “Hader” across the back.

Hader, still in full uniform, motioned his wife inside to a lobby outside the locker room. As they talked, the rest of Hader’s party removed the jerseys and either changed out or reversed clothing with the player’s name on it.

ouch