GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Moderators: Shirley, Sabo, brian, rass, DaveInSeattle
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Lamar Jackson is basically throwing into periscopes when he doesn't create space for WRs with his legs. So anytime he's a little off, he's going to look very inaccurate. Josh Rosen also throws into small windows but he often seems to not realize how small the window is, which I think will be his undoing in the NFL. Allen is similar and just makes baffling decisions.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.
"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Chris Samuels was pretty damn good for a decade.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Yeah, that's why I said arguably. He would be the only other one I would rate as a possible A though. I wouldn't argue Samuels though.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Here's an interesting article that relates to that...even with the first overall pick, you would expect to average Corey Dillon. There are so few stars in any particular draft yet people have high expectations for all of these top 5 and even top 10 selections.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... aft-picks/
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... aft-picks/
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I mean ... that's horrible analysis in that article. You don't look at the median or mean because if you extend that logic, no player better than Corey Dillon can exist.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I would think a bigger issue would be looking at career over first few years/prime but I don't really know what you are getting at. My point is that the players the majority of the time aren't nearly as good as people think.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
But that's because they're either way better or complete busts. Corey Dillon at 1-1 is a bad result, not "what should be expected" in a single year.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I think that a lot of people know that they're probably getting Corey Dillon, but they still get excited because they know that a top tier pick is their best shot at getting a future hall-of-famer.
"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
That's how every single average in the history of anything works. My point is that the actual players taken have not been as good as people think that they have been historically, which is what the tweet Brian posted showed. The average number one pick has Corey Dillon's career.
Awesome Players since 1980 (10):
1. Clowney
2. Luck
3. Newton
4. Eli Manning (giving him ring credit)
5. Peyton Manning
6. Orlando Pace
7. Aikman
8. Bo Jackson (I'm going to count his career for the sake of the drill and you can argue he's more Dillon than star)
9. Bruce Smith
10. Elway
Full-fledged Busts (9):
11. Russell
12. Carr
13. Courtney Brown
14. Couch (probably)
15. Ki-Jana Carter
16. Emtman
17. Jeff George (you could argue he's a Dillon)
18. Aundray Bruce
19. Kenneth Sims
Corey Dillons (16):
20. Winston (so far)
21. Fisher
22. Bradford
23. Jake Long
24. Mario Williams
25. Alex Smith
26. Carson Palmer
27. Vick
28. Keyshawn Johnson
29. Dan Wilkinson
30. Bledsoe
31. Russell Maryland
32. Testaverde
33. Fryar
34. George Rogers
35. Billy Sims
The most likely result is a good but not all-time great player.
Last edited by Gunpowder on Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
You wound me.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I looked at draft classes a few years ago and found that the average draft class produces either 1 or 2 players that even get a 2nd contract from the team that drafted them. Drafted players are massively overvalued in April.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
It wasn't his math, that's fine, it was his analysis and the conclusion "that is the kind caliber player one should expect to draft". Even acknowledging the average production, the expectation should be a superstar unless you're in one of those superstar-less drafts because not getting a superstar is almost always a failure, either of drafting or coaching or the player himself. Maybe I'm not phrasing it right, but even knowing how sports franchises tend to be conservative, do you think any GM at 1-1 would or should take guaranteed Corey Dillon production over even a known 70% chance of a bust?
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
So, you're saying that Corey Dillon was better than just a Corey Dillon.
"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Hope you guys are right.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I want on record New England trades up for the “too smart” kid and extends their dynasty another decade and a half.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Very relieved/pleased with the Chubb selection.
"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Rosen will be the best QB taken in the first round of this draft. I feel pretty confident in that statement. Though I think Lamar Jackson may ultimately be the best.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Elway’s political leanings prevented them from taking Rosen.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
That's one reason I was afraid they'd pick Josh Allen. (That, and the fact that Allen is semi-local.)
"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I’m glad morts there but he’s really struggling.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Kiper is washed. Just compared josh Allen to one of the five best left handed pitchers of all time(he big unit)
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Glad you are because local sports radio is not. I've never heard so much complaining on radio.
I would like expensive whiskey.
We only have beer & wine...
What am I, 12?
We only have beer & wine...
What am I, 12?
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
That dudes gonna be good.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
wow, Steelers getting Lamar
- A_B
- The Dude
- Posts: 23319
- Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:36 am
- Location: Getting them boards like a wolf in the chicken pen.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
What happens if the Patriots hand up a card that just says "all of the rest of the players"?
- Pruitt
- The Dude
- Posts: 18105
- Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:02 am
- Location: North Shore of Lake Ontario
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Browns could still get him.
\
I had a sneaking suspicion that the bills would go for the QB out of the "Class of 2018" that the most people had soured on.
"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Vick was mostly decent, not great.
Bo had a meh career but I'm counting him in the top list because he was so unbelievably good when he was actually on the field. He played like the expectation of a number 1 pick.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.
Last edited by Gunpowder on Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
He certainly was. I used to love Corey Dillon as a player. I'm putting down good players as Dillons.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I am also not fuckin happy that Lamar Jackson is a Raven.
But I do really like Terrell Edmunds.
I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.
But I do really like Terrell Edmunds.
I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
They'll draft some WR in the 4th round that's insanely good like they always do.Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:34 pm I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
No argument however I’d say he’s probably better than Cam right now with a caveat that Cam still has a better upside and that Stafford can still end up in the great status.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018
I'd argue vehemently against it but it's not indefensible.
I just think Cam is in an offense that has no business functioning at the NFL level and he's the only reason that it does.
Pack a vest for your james in the city of intercourse