GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Lamar Jackson is basically throwing into periscopes when he doesn't create space for WRs with his legs. So anytime he's a little off, he's going to look very inaccurate. Josh Rosen also throws into small windows but he often seems to not realize how small the window is, which I think will be his undoing in the NFL. Allen is similar and just makes baffling decisions.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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brian wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:08 am I think the huge takeaway from this graphic is how many of these picks SUCKED. The only pick you could give an A to would be Marshall Faulk probably.

Chris Samuels was pretty damn good for a decade.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Yeah, that's why I said arguably. He would be the only other one I would rate as a possible A though. I wouldn't argue Samuels though.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Here's an interesting article that relates to that...even with the first overall pick, you would expect to average Corey Dillon. There are so few stars in any particular draft yet people have high expectations for all of these top 5 and even top 10 selections.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... aft-picks/
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I mean ... that's horrible analysis in that article. You don't look at the median or mean because if you extend that logic, no player better than Corey Dillon can exist.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I would think a bigger issue would be looking at career over first few years/prime but I don't really know what you are getting at. My point is that the players the majority of the time aren't nearly as good as people think.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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But that's because they're either way better or complete busts. Corey Dillon at 1-1 is a bad result, not "what should be expected" in a single year.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I think that a lot of people know that they're probably getting Corey Dillon, but they still get excited because they know that a top tier pick is their best shot at getting a future hall-of-famer.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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mister d wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:13 pm But that's because they're either way better or complete busts. Corey Dillon at 1-1 is a bad result, not "what should be expected" in a single year.


That's how every single average in the history of anything works. My point is that the actual players taken have not been as good as people think that they have been historically, which is what the tweet Brian posted showed. The average number one pick has Corey Dillon's career.

Awesome Players since 1980 (10):

1. Clowney
2. Luck
3. Newton
4. Eli Manning (giving him ring credit)
5. Peyton Manning
6. Orlando Pace
7. Aikman
8. Bo Jackson (I'm going to count his career for the sake of the drill and you can argue he's more Dillon than star)
9. Bruce Smith
10. Elway


Full-fledged Busts (9):

11. Russell
12. Carr
13. Courtney Brown
14. Couch (probably)
15. Ki-Jana Carter
16. Emtman
17. Jeff George (you could argue he's a Dillon)
18. Aundray Bruce
19. Kenneth Sims


Corey Dillons (16):

20. Winston (so far)
21. Fisher
22. Bradford
23. Jake Long
24. Mario Williams
25. Alex Smith
26. Carson Palmer
27. Vick
28. Keyshawn Johnson
29. Dan Wilkinson
30. Bledsoe
31. Russell Maryland
32. Testaverde
33. Fryar
34. George Rogers
35. Billy Sims


The most likely result is a good but not all-time great player.
Last edited by Gunpowder on Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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You wound me.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I looked at draft classes a few years ago and found that the average draft class produces either 1 or 2 players that even get a 2nd contract from the team that drafted them. Drafted players are massively overvalued in April.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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It wasn't his math, that's fine, it was his analysis and the conclusion "that is the kind caliber player one should expect to draft". Even acknowledging the average production, the expectation should be a superstar unless you're in one of those superstar-less drafts because not getting a superstar is almost always a failure, either of drafting or coaching or the player himself. Maybe I'm not phrasing it right, but even knowing how sports franchises tend to be conservative, do you think any GM at 1-1 would or should take guaranteed Corey Dillon production over even a known 70% chance of a bust?
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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(Also ... Vick and Bo in different categories?)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by HaulCitgo »

Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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HaulCitgo wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:24 pm Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.
So, you're saying that Corey Dillon was better than just a Corey Dillon.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Hope you guys are right.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I want on record New England trades up for the “too smart” kid and extends their dynasty another decade and a half.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:47 am I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.
Very relieved/pleased with the Chubb selection.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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mister d wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:35 pm I want on record New England trades up for the “too smart” kid and extends their dynasty another decade and a half.
Rosen will be the best QB taken in the first round of this draft. I feel pretty confident in that statement. Though I think Lamar Jackson may ultimately be the best.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Elway’s political leanings prevented them from taking Rosen.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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brian wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:47 pm Elway’s political leanings prevented them from taking Rosen.
That's one reason I was afraid they'd pick Josh Allen. (That, and the fact that Allen is semi-local.)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I’m glad morts there but he’s really struggling.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Kiper is washed. Just compared josh Allen to one of the five best left handed pitchers of all time(he big unit)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:46 pm
sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:47 am I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.
Very relieved/pleased with the Chubb selection.
Glad you are because local sports radio is not. I've never heard so much complaining on radio.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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That dudes gonna be good.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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wow, Steelers getting Lamar
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Rex wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar
I think pats take him.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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What happens if the Patriots hand up a card that just says "all of the rest of the players"?
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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A_B wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:27 pm
Rex wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar
I think pats take him.
Wrong, AB!
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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A_B wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:27 pm
Rex wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar
I think pats take him.
Browns could still get him.
\
I had a sneaking suspicion that the bills would go for the QB out of the "Class of 2018" that the most people had soured on.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I don’t care about the NFL, but I care the Patriots didn’t do a real good thing.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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mister d wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:49 pm (Also ... Vick and Bo in different categories?)
Vick was mostly decent, not great.

Bo had a meh career but I'm counting him in the top list because he was so unbelievably good when he was actually on the field. He played like the expectation of a number 1 pick.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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brian wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.
Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.
Last edited by Gunpowder on Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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HaulCitgo wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:24 pm Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.
He certainly was. I used to love Corey Dillon as a player. I'm putting down good players as Dillons.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I am also not fuckin happy that Lamar Jackson is a Raven.

But I do really like Terrell Edmunds.

I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Gunpowder wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:34 pm I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.
They'll draft some WR in the 4th round that's insanely good like they always do.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Gunpowder wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:32 pm
brian wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.
Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.
No argument however I’d say he’s probably better than Cam right now with a caveat that Cam still has a better upside and that Stafford can still end up in the great status.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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brian wrote: Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:25 am
Gunpowder wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:32 pm
brian wrote: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.
Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.
No argument however I’d say he’s probably better than Cam right now with a caveat that Cam still has a better upside and that Stafford can still end up in the great status.

I'd argue vehemently against it but it's not indefensible.

I just think Cam is in an offense that has no business functioning at the NFL level and he's the only reason that it does.
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