GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by A_B »

I agree with this take from The Ringer

"It is so relieving to see that Shazier can walk so soon after his injury. We should admire the fight and determination Shazier has shown in his recovery, but I hope the NFL realizes that Shazier’s is not a story worth celebrating. Four years ago, he was a first-round pick, and now we’re applauding his ability to walk. That’s football’s fault. The best way the NFL can honor Shazier is to do whatever it can to make sure that what happened to him never happens to any of its players ever again. "
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by mister d »

The best way the NFL can honor Shazier is to take an honest look at what he would have gotten in his next contract and make sure he gets it.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by mister d »

Someone work this one out for me ... why do we apply time value of money concepts to draft picks? Sports is perpetual, careers aren't longer if you're taken a year earlier, control is the same year to year, etc, etc. I get where it applies to GMs and coaches and dying owners and impatient fans, but shouldn't your 2nd be available for a 1st at all times unless you have a 1st round grade on a guy when your pick is up?
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by rass »

A_B wrote: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:09 am I agree with this take from The Ringer

"It is so relieving to see that Shazier can walk so soon after his injury. We should admire the fight and determination Shazier has shown in his recovery, but I hope the NFL realizes that Shazier’s is not a story worth celebrating. Four years ago, he was a first-round pick, and now we’re applauding his ability to walk. That’s football’s fault. The best way the NFL can honor Shazier is to do whatever it can to make sure that what happened to him never happens to any of its players ever again. "
I agree. His recovery is amazing for him, but sobering as a football fan. That was uncomfortable to watch, in large part because that part of it was completely ignored.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

mister d wrote: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:41 am Someone work this one out for me ... why do we apply time value of money concepts to draft picks? Sports is perpetual, careers aren't longer if you're taken a year earlier, control is the same year to year, etc, etc. I get where it applies to GMs and coaches and dying owners and impatient fans, but shouldn't your 2nd be available for a 1st at all times unless you have a 1st round grade on a guy when your pick is up?
Generally. Most of those trades turn out horribly for the team giving up the high pick. Earl Thomas for one. Only one I can think of that really worked out was the saints giving up a 2nd to pick kamara in the third last year.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

I'm counting Gesicki on this one.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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I was hoping that the Broncos would pick Rudolph in the 2nd or 3rd round. Surprised he lasted as long as he did.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Johnny Carwash »

Patriots select Lithuanian punter Haitis Kaustheiaintis in the 7th round.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Well I hate most of the Steelers picks. But instead of giving them immediate F!!!!!!! grades, I'm just going to like, wait until they actually play NFL snaps.

Here's some posts from the Steelers board when they took Antonio Brown in 2010 (after already taking Emmanuel Sanders in the 3rd):
PSU dropout43 wrote:another midget WR.

SteelerOfDeVille wrote:Was hoping for Doug Worthington, DE, Ohio state.... he's a 34 DE through and through...

SteelerOfDeVille wrote:
rjwilliajx wrote:
Mr. B.R. wrote:kick returner......
Camp body. He is insurance - might even be PS player - not sure why we took this one - I wanted Mullins from NC here. But who knows.

Rick
he's a 3-time all MAC returner... I'm sure that's why we took him.

Stil, I wouldn't have minded a o- or d-lineman...
or selvish capers, ciron black (oline)
or doug worthington (dline)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by HaulCitgo »

mister d wrote: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:41 am Someone work this one out for me ... why do we apply time value of money concepts to draft picks? Sports is perpetual, careers aren't longer if you're taken a year earlier, control is the same year to year, etc, etc. I get where it applies to GMs and coaches and dying owners and impatient fans, but shouldn't your 2nd be available for a 1st at all times unless you have a 1st round grade on a guy when your pick is up?
Pats certainly don't. They do this most years. But the other side would be unstable coaches gms that prefer less performance this year than more next. Also these guys should have some idea of the following years draft prospects. I can't imagine any first rounders aren't on the prior years scouting lists. Without having any idea how it's done, freshmen and sophmores getting lots of snaps has to be a good starting point for the following years scouting.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

HaulCitgo wrote:
mister d wrote: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:41 am Someone work this one out for me ... why do we apply time value of money concepts to draft picks? Sports is perpetual, careers aren't longer if you're taken a year earlier, control is the same year to year, etc, etc. I get where it applies to GMs and coaches and dying owners and impatient fans, but shouldn't your 2nd be available for a 1st at all times unless you have a 1st round grade on a guy when your pick is up?
Pats certainly don't. They do this most years. But the other side would be unstable coaches gms that prefer less performance this year than more next. Also these guys should have some idea of the following years draft prospects. I can't imagine any first rounders aren't on the prior years scouting lists. Without having any idea how it's done, freshmen and sophmores getting lots of snaps has to be a good starting point for the following years scouting.
I've wondered that before - when do teams realize that, say, 2013 is going to be a horrendous draft or 2014 is going to be epic? Because they act like they have no idea.

I think there might be so many players to scout that they truly don't have a good idea until the previous draft ends and they start looking at new guys.


All I know for next year is that Devin White is the best ILB prospect I've seen other than Luke Keuchly.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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"Roger Goodell is here....Roger Goodell everybody.....Hey Roger, do you have some more old Cowboys to bring on stage? You realize that Paula Cole was just asking a rhetorical question, right?

Speaking of taking multiple young black studs in one night, Lisa Lampanelli is here..."

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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by sancarlos »

Speaking of the Eagles at the draft, have we discussed this guy yet? He's never played American football!

Eagles draft humongous rugby league man


The attached video is awesome.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Birds don’t suck. They lack the necessary anatomical structures to do so.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

It's nice and all but he was guaranteed that money anyway.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Gunpowder wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:12 am It's nice and all but he was guaranteed that money anyway.
And you'd hope and presume the other 31 teams would do the exact same thing. Probably 30 would. Not sure about the Bengals.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by duff »

brian wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:16 am
Gunpowder wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:12 am It's nice and all but he was guaranteed that money anyway.
And you'd hope and presume the other 31 teams would do the exact same thing. Probably 30 would. Not sure about the Bengals.
Patriots wouldn't
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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duff wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:31 am
brian wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:16 am
Gunpowder wrote: Thu May 03, 2018 10:12 am It's nice and all but he was guaranteed that money anyway.
And you'd hope and presume the other 31 teams would do the exact same thing. Probably 30 would. Not sure about the Bengals.
Patriots wouldn't
Not sure if you're joking or not, but I think they would. The only benefit from not converting it is the value of having the money theoretically earning interest until it's paid to Shazier during the season, the main negative in not doing it is the potential PR hit if it becomes a story. So it's only costing the Steelers maybe about an extra $100K or so to pay it upfront.

I was being mostly serious by saying I'm not sure if the Bengals would do it, but just because they're notoriously cheap. (Though allegedly getting somewhat better in that regard.)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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The only thing I'm confident of with regards to the Patriots hypothetical is you could tell 50 Patriots fans they paid him in full and 50 Patriots fans they cut him without any further pay and you'd end up with 100 Patriots fans loudly telling you the team did the right thing.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 amI can't see a team like Tampa Bay that starts CHRIS FUCKIN' CONTE at safety passing on Derwin James to pick up an extra 2nd rounder. The teams in the back half of the top 10 this year are in primo spots.

I have no idea what Chris Conte has on NFL owners but it's probably graphic.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Well - time to self scout.
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 am 1. CLEVELAND BROWNS - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Darnold has some Andrew Luck in him. He also has some Jameis Winston:
Not sure which one is going to rise to the top here yet. He had a very Winston rookie year but ended it very well.

2. NY GIANTS - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

I clearly didn't think he'd go this high but I did think he'd go end of first-ish. If he were as good as I thought he were he'd likely have played over Josh Dobbs. It looks like (from preseason action) his lack of arm strength could be a fatal flaw but still way early.

3. NY JETS - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

he all a creation of scheme? No. He does throw accurately, particularly shorter deep routes. He'll throw great passes on the run right over a tight end's shoulder with three defenders around him. He throws darts, just like Wilson. It's almost like Mariota impersonating Wilson. He seems to struggle, however, on go routes/fades down the sideline and short throws into tight windows. The latter could be a huge concern, if he gets thrown into the wrong offense and forced to be Tom Brady or Phil Rivers. Just keep him away from Mike Mularkey and he'll be fine. He would wreck shop in Kansas City. He'll have to settle for the Jets.
Nope - he's clearly awesome and the numbers didn't lie. This guy might legitimately become a HoF type QB.


4. (TRADE) BUFFALO BILLS trade with CLEVELAND BROWNS (give up both first rounders and change) - JOSH ALLEN, QB (I think), Wyoming

I hate Josh Allen as a prospect (I'm sure he's a fine young man). All of the bad that comes with Alex Smith? That's Josh Allen. He's like Josh McCown on meth. Josh McCown is a 40 year old rookie who stumbles out of clean pockets to throw into triple coverage that he should have seen coming from a mile away, and yet he still is thought of as an underrated QB and great mentor type for some reason because he throws a pretty deep ball every couple drives. Josh Allen is that in a younger, more athletic body. He's got the big arm. He can run. He throws effortlessly. He makes amazing highlight throws regularly:

Image

Image

BUT....he more regularly does idiotic things. He runs out of clean pockets into sacks. He gets off balance and misses his WR by 5 yards. He blindly throws into double coverage. He floats backside sideline passes that are pick-sixed by a DB that actually has to time his break lest he get there too early. He throws checkdowns 10 feet over the WR's head. He does so much awful shit that the good doesn't do nearly enough to compensate.

But he gets the defense of, how can anyone win with this shitty supporting cast? That definitely matters, but he's also playing shitty teams. He has many instances of his shitty WRs being open, and he's missing them by a mile. He has plenty of plays where the shitty OL gives him a good pocket, and he runs out of it early into a sack. He has multiple plays with a wide open checkdown, yet he's oblivious to the pressure and takes a bad sack or decides he's throwing deep into triple coverage. He gets all the excuses that Christian Hackenberg got. I read that comparison a lot now, but I've been using it for months. Here's what I said in March of 2016 about Hackenberg when he was getting defended by a ton of people for having to suffer through a spread-type scheme as his draft stock plummeted:

"I watched so many plays where there was a normal dropback pass called, the shitty line did protect, a shitty WR did get open, and Hackenberg stepped up in a clean pocket and either bounced the ball to him or threw it 5 yards over his head.

Franklin may have hindered him but he also did more than his fair share of sucking."
Well...I was definitely wrong on Josh Allen. Now, I still think the bar is set insanely low for him, and I ran some numbers a few weeks back and his best rookie statistical comp was Ken Dorsey (he's had a few good games since so he's no longer on that track), but this guy is definitely an NFL QB. I don't think he'd be a great option if he couldn't run and if his team's defense weren't really good, but he CAN run and he's really good at it. Also, Brian Daboll is an incredibly good coordinator. The Bills still suck but the sucky WRs are getting open (even if they usually drop the ball once they do). I still think he's being overrated by most people but this guy is definitely a legitimate NFL starter IMO.



5. DENVER BRONCOS - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

And finally, when people talk about not being able to run in the NFL like you could in college - many of Lamar Jackson's runs in college were designed runs. He wasn't Mike Vick, bailing on passing plays to try and make Sportscenter. Those won't happen in the NFL like they do in college. Cam Newton runs a heck of a lot less in the NFL than he did at Auburn, but he still can when he needs to. Lamar Jackson does not depend on running to be able to throw. He just ran in college because his coach realized he was awesome at it.

So, will he fit in Denver? Yes. He'll fit anywhere. Stop that. He doesn't need a massively customized scheme around him. He just needs what Bill Belichick did for Jacoby Brissett - a downfield scheme with a few dedicated plays that take advantage of his athleticism. John Elway has shown an interest in QBs that can move - Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and now Case Keenum, a guy who needs to move around a bit to compensate for a lack of arm strength - and I don't see why he wouldn't be interested in Lamar Jackson if the draft board falls this way.
Jackson is limited by slow and/or poor WRs (outside of John Brown) and he is inconsistent when his form falls apart (similar to Matt Stafford), but he's generally been pretty good. The Ravens are running him like college though which is surprising to me. And the dropoff from his efficacy doing it has fallen more than I thought it would. Still not going to be fun to defend for the next decade.

7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Derwin James, S, Florida State

This guy is absolutely ridiculous and I'm fighting an urge to move him up to the Colts pick. I also want to move a team up for Rosen but there aren't enough contenders to trade up and there are too many elite guys that have fallen as a result of mocking 5 QBs to the top 5 picks that I just can't do it. I can't see a team like Tampa Bay that starts CHRIS FUCKIN' CONTE at safety passing on Derwin James to pick up an extra 2nd rounder. The teams in the back half of the top 10 this year are in primo spots. There's always one sweet spot in each draft and to me, this year it's 6-10. Similar to 2014 but a little earlier.
Yes, he is ridiculously good already and a bunch of teams (particularly Tampa and I'd argue NO/GB as well) were dumb for not taking him. If the Steelers were going to try to trade up for another Polamalu, they just lost their 2nd chance at it after Malik Hooker last year and James this year.

8. CHICAGO BEARS - Quentin Nelson, G, Notre Dame

I can't keep dropping Karate Bear. Every year I mention that I only have a few players in my top, top tier, which is determined not only by skill but just by a certain feel for each prospect. The list is going to be a bit biased toward recent players because I started paying a ton of attention only a few years ago, but it goes:

Reggie Bush

Calvin Johnson

Andrew Luck

Khalil Mack

Myles Garrett

Leonard Fournette

Quentin Nelson
He's already one of the best OL in the entire league.


12. CLEVELAND BROWNS - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

I can't see this happening but I still have Ward available (he'd probably go to the Dolphins if all of this happened in real life) and Cleveland has a need at general defense. The more I watch Denzel Ward, the more I'm convinced that he IS Darrelle Revis.
Yes, he's Darrelle Revis and Cleveland didn't reach one bit.


14. BALTIMORE trades with GREEN BAY – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

This is so far off the rails that I may as well be hanging out with Strawberry and Gooden. But fuck it – weird things happen every year during the draft, so you better put some weird ass shit in your mock. And this is some weird ass shit right here.

Do I think he’ll be good? No. I don’t. He seems to flinch at pressure more than the other QBs in this class, he makes too many horrible decisions when not pressured even a little bit, and he misses quite often on difficult throws into tight windows. I think he’s going to be a pick-6 machine in the NFL, like a version of bad Carson Palmer. Carson Palmer between 2008 or so and 2014-ish would just routinely make a boneheaded inexcusable throw into the middle of the field or the flat into the teeth of a cover 2 zone and you just had no idea what he was thinking. That’s what I see of college Rosen, and he just wasn’t punished for it all that often. Rosen is the guy that stares down a vertical route in the middle of the field and throws the ball right to the deep safety like he meant to do it.
He was put into a really tough situation so it's too early to say all that much but I'm standing by this for now.


15. ARIZONA CARDINALS – Connor Williams, OT, Texas

I have no idea why Mike McGlinchey is considered the consensus top tackle in this class. He anchors well enough in pass protection but he just looks sluggish, gets beat around the edges and doesn’t really seem to explode off the ball. It worked for Ronnie Stanley, but Ronnie Stanley is a hell of a lot stronger than Mike McGlinchey.

But Connor Willams? He looks a complete douche, like Taylor Lewan. And that’s what you want in your offensive linemen, isn’t it? He’s relentless and just drives defenders downfield like they offended him personally. He’s also the athletic type tackle that teams are looking for these days, like your Lewans, or your Lane Johnsons, or your Al Villanuevas. Bradley Chubb just ran by McGlinchey. The NFL is full of pass rushers that will probably run around McGlinchey. At least Connor Williams has a chance to move with them.
Way off. Connor Williams has been average at best while McGlinchey is an absolute stud who can move very, very well. I don't know what lead me to come up with this analysis but so far it's nuclear levels of wrong and would look much worse if it were about something other than offensive linemen.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

17. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Assuming Hurst’s heart checks out (I have a minor heart issue myself that probably would have been flagged during a medical exam as comprehensive as I image the NFL’s are), interior pass rushers are the new hotness in the NFL and Hurst is the best one in this class. He’s compared to Aaron Donald a lot but, come on, nobody is Aaron Donald. But Hurst does look explosive and he is a good interior rusher and if surrounded by the talent that San Diego has up front, he’s going to get an easier road to the backfield than he would with most other teams. If I’m San Diego, I’m adding to my strength here and drafting OL later on. The Chargers with another dominating pass rusher up front, this one coming up the middle, could be the most dominant cosmically cursed 8-8 team we’ve ever seen.
Can't believe he fell to the 4th and the Raiders absolutely stole him.

18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – Bradley Chubb, NC State

If the hype is to be believed, this is wayyyyy too late for Chubb. Like, 10+ spots too late. But every year top guys (according to the media at least) fall, and this year I think Chubb may be one of them. But if he does fall, Seattle would be a great place for him to land. They need help on both lines (I’m also tempted to give them Josh Jackson to rebuild the secondary), but if there’s a guy like Chubb available I think they take the pass rusher over an offensive lineman. Plus they probably want to continue using converted CFL nose tackles as guards and who am I to tell them not to do that.
Chubb seems to me like the kind of guy who’s going to feast against lesser tackles, but he’s definitely got ability and he’s not just a one-trick pony, and Seattle’s defense is built around guys like this coming after the QB in waves. Seattle collects pass rushing defensive linemen like Aldon Smith collects subpoenas and just like Smith, it’s time to start restocking.
Way off. Chubb came on in the 2nd half and is everything he was advertised to be statistically (I haven't watched much of him but it's hard to fake these numbers unless you're Vic Beasley).

22. DETROIT LIONS – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

I’m tired of Detroit not having a running back. It’s never a huge need for them, but I think that’s because they’ve just convinced themselves that good running backs don’t exist because in actuality, it’s consistently a huge need for this team. Wtf? Any time they draft a halfway decent RB he’s always like 180 lbs, immediately suffers every injury and he’s done in a few seasons.
I think Kerryon Johnson showed that it's been more on the RBs than anything else in Detroit. Good for them to have a competent running game now.


26. ATLANTA FALCONS – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

Atlanta can go in a bunch of directions with this pick. They could use one more weapon on offense to really lift their passing offense. They could use a rush DE. They also paid Dontari Poe after whiffing on some interior DL picks in years prior and still haven’t really solidified it. Looking at the available prospects, I think they would take the DL here and worry about the other spots later.
I’ve never really liked big, sluggish Alabama monster defensive tackles, and that will continue here. I don’t know what it is, but while I see Da’Ron Payne in a higher light than I do A’Shawn Robinson, I’m just not a huge fan and I like Bryan a lot more. He’s like a bigger Joey Bosa, just powers his way into the backfield at will. He’ll take one arm, bend an OL back and just push him into the QB’s lap. He can also go around the edge a bit, kind of like Stephon Tuitt. He’s probably going to go higher than this in the actual draft, because teams always need more 3-4 DE than are available, and Bryan looks like he could be a monster 3-4 DE. I won’t say he’s a JJ Watt type because nobody is a JJ Watt type but impact at that position really sets your defense up to wreck shop. For Atlanta, they would probably want more of a Maurice Hurst type but talent is talent and Bryan has a lot of it.

This guy hasn't done jack shit.

27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State

STOP COMPARING THIS GUY TO LUKE KUECHLY, MEDIA.

For one, Luke Keuchy is the absolute gold standard of college ILB tape. Vander Esch is a phenomenal athlete, more like Roquan Smith but with a better ability to sort through trash and get by blockers. But, he seems to get fooled a lot. He is raw and only started for a year at Boise State


Anyway, Vander Esch may end up being the best ILB in this class if he develops a little further and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he’s the first ILB taken. He’s just as good an athlete as the others and seems to be better at slipping through trash and finding the ball.
Some hit and some miss (he's been absolutely awesome but I don't know how his instincts have been) but more hit than miss on this one.



29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Jaguars offense is still as boring as ever, and they’ve shown that they like boring WRs who put up 100 catch seasons at football factories. Calvin Ridley is like a version of Amari Cooper with a nagging hamstring injury.

I would give them a lineman if I there were a mauler type available or a QB if the same opportunity presented itself, but the way I have things going, I think they take Calvin Ridley and immediately crown him king of the midgets. I’d probably prefer to put a DJ Chark or DJ Moore here, but for some reason I feel that the Jags would go with Ridley in this case. Their defense is kick-ass as fuck but if one of the ILBs drop or if a beast DT (maybe Da’Ron Payne) is there, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went in that direction. Hell, they could even add to the secondary. Nothing wrong with stacking strength on strength and in a year or two they are going to start losing guys for cap reasons and it’s probably smart to keep restocking the engine that drives your team.
Either way, they are going to rush for like 3,000 yards next season and Blake Bortles is going to get a sixth developmental season.
Big miss - he's shown to be pretty damn good.

Some popular names that I left out of the first round:

Donte Jackson (LSU CB): I do not get it with this guy. Always see him mocked into the first but he just doesn’t cover well. He’s like 170 lbs as well. That would be fine if he could do anything more than run fast in a line, but I don’t think he can.
Nope, he's really good. Corners are tough to scout, no wonder so many become busts.
Christian Kirk (TAMU WR): Gimmick piece WR that makes Percy Harvin looked refined. He might be successful in the NFL but I don’t see a team spending a first rounder on a guy who has to move around pre-snap and run fake screens every other play to get him open. He rarely just lines up and runs an actual route.
He's a functional NFL WR at worst. Miss.
Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame OT): Covered him a few times but I have no idea how he’s the general consensus top OT. Seems like a Riley Reiff situation where he’s going to “fall”.
Guh. Guhhhhh

Hayden Hurst (SCAR TE): It was funnier to mock Gesicki to the Dolphins even though Hurst is the consensus top TE. But he’s also going to be a 25 year old rookie. Who drafts a 25 year old tight end in the first round?
Not even the best TE drafted by the Ravens last year. If they would have drafted say Ridley, they'd be a handful to deal with.

Rashaan Evans (Alabama ILB): Actually he would probably be in the mix for Philadelphia or Pittsburgh if it fell this way but I don’t love him and can see him falling into the 2nd round. This is already a lot of ILBs to be drafted this high and Evans has medical concerns and also performance concerns.
Playing a 4-3 OLB role but been pretty good in it.





I think a pretty good year so far for GPJ but gonna come back stronger next year n shit.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 am It's that time of the year...not draft time, of course. That's not for a few weeks. It's GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT time.

As usual, this is not "based" on anything - it's a hybrid of how I feel the draft WILL unfold and how I think the draft SHOULD unfold. Sometimes I purposely keep players I really don't like (e.g. Jabrill Peppers) out of the first round, but usually not if they are extremely likely to be a high selection (Josh Allen, etc.). I will however often drop those guys way below where they are projected to and probably will land out of principle. This also, as previous iterations, carries the Gunpowder Guarantee that everything laid out in this exercise is a 100% leadpipe lock to happen exactly as predicted in the actual draft.
Let's get to it.


Sorry, very to the party but... Remind me why you don't like Peppers again? Not taking a run, just curious. Too much hype? The STD stuff? Too cocky?
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Rex »

Interesting. I'm guessing a redraft goes exactly the same 1-2, but what about after that? Darnold doesn't feel like a classic lol Jets pick, but he doesn't feel like a HOFer either.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:29 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 am It's that time of the year...not draft time, of course. That's not for a few weeks. It's GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT time.

As usual, this is not "based" on anything - it's a hybrid of how I feel the draft WILL unfold and how I think the draft SHOULD unfold. Sometimes I purposely keep players I really don't like (e.g. Jabrill Peppers) out of the first round, but usually not if they are extremely likely to be a high selection (Josh Allen, etc.). I will however often drop those guys way below where they are projected to and probably will land out of principle. This also, as previous iterations, carries the Gunpowder Guarantee that everything laid out in this exercise is a 100% leadpipe lock to happen exactly as predicted in the actual draft.
Let's get to it.


Sorry, very to the party but... Remind me why you don't like Peppers again? Not taking a run, just curious. Too much hype? The STD stuff? Too cocky?

Supposedly he's been pretty good this year but I hated him because he was always lost on the field at Michigan, wasn't all that great in coverage, had no ball skills and got tossed around when he was up in the box. I personally think he's Percy Harvin and should be playing offensively.

Nothing to do with him personally.
Last edited by Gunpowder on Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Rex wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:30 pm Interesting. I'm guessing a redraft goes exactly the same 1-2, but what about after that? Darnold doesn't feel like a classic lol Jets pick, but he doesn't feel like a HOFer either.

Jets probably stick with Darnold, Cleveland might stick with Ward but I could see them wanting Derwin James instead, Denver would probably stick with Chubb unless Elway loved Allen, Colts keep Nelson, I think Bills stay with Allen...Bears might take Vander Esch over Smith but Smith has also been good - I don't know. Much of it might stay the same.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Pruitt »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:31 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:29 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 am It's that time of the year...not draft time, of course. That's not for a few weeks. It's GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT time.

As usual, this is not "based" on anything - it's a hybrid of how I feel the draft WILL unfold and how I think the draft SHOULD unfold. Sometimes I purposely keep players I really don't like (e.g. Jabrill Peppers) out of the first round, but usually not if they are extremely likely to be a high selection (Josh Allen, etc.). I will however often drop those guys way below where they are projected to and probably will land out of principle. This also, as previous iterations, carries the Gunpowder Guarantee that everything laid out in this exercise is a 100% leadpipe lock to happen exactly as predicted in the actual draft.
Let's get to it.


Sorry, very to the party but... Remind me why you don't like Peppers again? Not taking a run, just curious. Too much hype? The STD stuff? Too cocky?

Supposedly he's been pretty good this year but I hated him because he was always lost on the field at Michigan, wasn't all that great in coverage, had no ball skills and got tossed around when he was up in the box. I personally think he's Percy Harvin and should be playing offensively.

Nothing to do with him personally.
When I saw the Browns this year, Peppers looked pretty good.

As for Josh Allen, I think the Bills have something decent here. His touch is as raw as advertised, but his running was a revelation this season. Give him a good Tight end and receiver and he may be pretty damn good.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Here's a slight counter to the observations about his time at MI:

1) You are right, he often had issues when asked to go into man coverage.

2) He was playing in Don Brown's first year at DC, under a very different and often complicated scheme.

3) He was playing a new position (Viper).

4) Subset of that, is that the position is by its nature fairly predatory and tends to move around the field quite a bit.


Anyways, I can understand thinking he might have some issues at the next level, but watching that kid play so much... Bit of a freak athlete and cut above in terms of every snap intensity.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by DSafetyGuy »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:34 pm
Rex wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:30 pm Interesting. I'm guessing a redraft goes exactly the same 1-2, but what about after that? Darnold doesn't feel like a classic lol Jets pick, but he doesn't feel like a HOFer either.

Jets probably stick with Darnold, Cleveland might stick with Ward but I could see them wanting Derwin James instead, Denver would probably stick with Chubb unless Elway loved Allen, Colts keep Nelson, I think Bills stay with Allen...Bears might take Vander Esch over Smith but Smith has also been good - I don't know. Much of it might stay the same.
I think the Bears would stick with Smith. He missed some time due to his holdout (limited play in games the first month of the season), but he looked very polished by the end of the season.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:46 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:31 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:29 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:01 am It's that time of the year...not draft time, of course. That's not for a few weeks. It's GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT time.

As usual, this is not "based" on anything - it's a hybrid of how I feel the draft WILL unfold and how I think the draft SHOULD unfold. Sometimes I purposely keep players I really don't like (e.g. Jabrill Peppers) out of the first round, but usually not if they are extremely likely to be a high selection (Josh Allen, etc.). I will however often drop those guys way below where they are projected to and probably will land out of principle. This also, as previous iterations, carries the Gunpowder Guarantee that everything laid out in this exercise is a 100% leadpipe lock to happen exactly as predicted in the actual draft.
Let's get to it.


Sorry, very to the party but... Remind me why you don't like Peppers again? Not taking a run, just curious. Too much hype? The STD stuff? Too cocky?

Supposedly he's been pretty good this year but I hated him because he was always lost on the field at Michigan, wasn't all that great in coverage, had no ball skills and got tossed around when he was up in the box. I personally think he's Percy Harvin and should be playing offensively.

Nothing to do with him personally.
When I saw the Browns this year, Peppers looked pretty good.

As for Josh Allen, I think the Bills have something decent here. His touch is as raw as advertised, but his running was a revelation this season. Give him a good Tight end and receiver and he may be pretty damn good.

Perhaps but for as shitty as these WRs are, they are wide open a ton of the time. Look at some of the TDs he's thrown - they have 5+ yards separation.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:40 pm Here's a slight counter to the observations about his time at MI:

1) You are right, he often had issues when asked to go into man coverage.

2) He was playing in Don Brown's first year at DC, under a very different and often complicated scheme.

3) He was playing a new position (Viper).

4) Subset of that, is that the position is by its nature fairly predatory and tends to move around the field quite a bit.


Anyways, I can understand thinking he might have some issues at the next level, but watching that kid play so much... Bit of a freak athlete and cut above in terms of every snap intensity.


He was a #1 overall 5-star recruit going into Michigan pretty much due to freakish athleticism. I knew he was a hell of an athlete, which is why I thought he'd be able to stick with plodding WRs much better than he ended up doing. I was judging more on his first few years before switching to OLB.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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Yeah, but no.

Those receivers in Buffalo are scrubs. They may have been open once in a while, but they are as bad a unit as there is in the league.

however, you;re right, Allen's touch is not good. But my evaluation is based on the pre and post-draft analysis of him. That he was raw.

That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 pm Yeah, but no.

Those receivers in Buffalo are scrubs. They may have been open once in a while, but they are as bad a unit as there is in the league.

however, you;re right, Allen's touch is not good. But my evaluation is based on the pre and post-draft analysis of him. That he was raw.

That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
Allen's mobility is a big reason for it but I think I read that they get something like the 6th highest separation in the NFL. This is excluding Kelvin Benjamin, who is dead last in the league. They all suck at actually catching the ball, though.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Gunpowder »

Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 pm
That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
Yeah he seems to be easy to root for and the players love him.

To me, Josh Allen is like you were transforming Blake Bortles into an elite QB but your machine broke down 70% of the way through.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Pruitt »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:27 pm
Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 pm
That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
Yeah he seems to be easy to root for and the players love him.

To me, Josh Allen is like you were transforming Blake Bortles into an elite QB but your machine broke down 70% of the way through.
Dude! He's a rookie! Don;t be throwing "Losman" and "Bortles" at me yet!

And that "separation stat?" Sounds like some Aaron Schatz wank-fest. In what world are Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Deonte Thompson, Kelvin benjamin and Robert Foster the 6th best unit at anything?

I saw all or the majority of 14 Bills games this year. Those receivers were putrid. Not saying Allen is accurate, but they were certainly not the 6th best at anything other than taking shits in Western New York. (For which they easily led the league)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by Brontoburglar »

Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:35 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:27 pm
Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 pm
That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
Yeah he seems to be easy to root for and the players love him.

To me, Josh Allen is like you were transforming Blake Bortles into an elite QB but your machine broke down 70% of the way through.
Dude! He's a rookie! Don;t be throwing "Losman" and "Bortles" at me yet!

And that "separation stat?" Sounds like some Aaron Schatz wank-fest. In what world are Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Deonte Thompson, Kelvin benjamin and Robert Foster the 6th best unit at anything?

I saw all or the majority of 14 Bills games this year. Those receivers were putrid. Not saying Allen is accurate, but they were certainly not the 6th best at anything other than taking shits in Western New York. (For which they easily led the league)
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

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So are you saying that the Bills receiving unit was actually good?

Because I am here to tell you that it wasn't.

Some statistics are valid - some are not. Check out "QBR" some time, and then tell me how Jameis Winston is better than Russel Wilson. And yes, ESPN is also a universally-respected sports website while I am but a message board poster, yet they posted that stat, so by your way of thinking, I am wrong for thinking Winston is not anywhere near as good as Wilson.
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by The Sybian »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:34 pm
Rex wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:30 pm Interesting. I'm guessing a redraft goes exactly the same 1-2, but what about after that? Darnold doesn't feel like a classic lol Jets pick, but he doesn't feel like a HOFer either.

Jets probably stick with Darnold,
I'm very confident the Jets would stick with Darnold. Despite the high interception rate early in the year, Darnold played really well and showed some flashes of brilliance. Then again, we are used to veritable interception machines McCown and Fitzpatrick, so we are accustomed to frequent rookie mistakes from 40 year olds, so we easily accept them from a 21 year old. Darnold's character and poise are off the charts. The kid doesn't get nervous, and is unbelievable in handling himself making rounds at the children's hospital. (That is now how I judge players). I'm just impressed that a then 20 year asked to spend the morning after the draft visiting the children's hospital. If that was me at 20, getting drafted to a NY team, I'm going out on the town and probably getting a nasty headline in the Post. "Sybian Rides into Town, a Whampin' and Whompin'."
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Re: GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

Post by sancarlos »

Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:24 pm
Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:35 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:27 pm
Pruitt wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 pm
That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.
Yeah he seems to be easy to root for and the players love him.

To me, Josh Allen is like you were transforming Blake Bortles into an elite QB but your machine broke down 70% of the way through.
Dude! He's a rookie! Don;t be throwing "Losman" and "Bortles" at me yet!

And that "separation stat?" Sounds like some Aaron Schatz wank-fest. In what world are Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Deonte Thompson, Kelvin benjamin and Robert Foster the 6th best unit at anything?

I saw all or the majority of 14 Bills games this year. Those receivers were putrid. Not saying Allen is accurate, but they were certainly not the 6th best at anything other than taking shits in Western New York. (For which they easily led the league)
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