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The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 9:31 am
by A_B
States can now allow sports betting if they want.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 9:35 am
by rass
No reason for brian to stay in Vegas now.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 10:21 am
by brian
Seen a lot of people suggesting this somehow means doom for Las Vegas and not sure I agree. There are probably a very, very small subset of gamblers who visit Las Vegas only for sports betting and I suppose those folks might not visit any more if you can bet on games in New Jersey or New York or wherever, but at worst it's probably going to just make it more mainstream and increase the handle for casinos in Las Vegas.

Remember that everyone predicted Las Vegas was done in the 1970s when New Jersey legalized casino gambling. The population of Las Vegas then was 350,000 people. There's now enough hotel rooms in Las Vegas to hold 350,000 people.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 11:36 am
by The Sybian
brian wrote: Mon May 14, 2018 10:21 am Seen a lot of people suggesting this somehow means doom for Las Vegas and not sure I agree. There are probably a very, very small subset of gamblers who visit Las Vegas only for sports betting and I suppose those folks might not visit any more if you can bet on games in New Jersey or New York or wherever, but at worst it's probably going to just make it more mainstream and increase the handle for casinos in Las Vegas.

Remember that everyone predicted Las Vegas was done in the 1970s when New Jersey legalized casino gambling. The population of Las Vegas then was 350,000 people. There's now enough hotel rooms in Las Vegas to hold 350,000 people.
But in fairness, nobody predicted Trump was dumb enough to go bankrupt running casinos.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 11:47 am
by Nonlinear FC
I don't see anything breaking Vegas as a destination. There's so much to do there now and like you said, online gambling and sports betting isn't what drives people that go to Vegas for the experience.

What I thought might break the town is when they tried that bullshit of making it a family destination. :D

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 11:52 am
by brian
The other thing everyone is forgetting is that the NCAA had been fucking Nevada over for the last 20 years by not allowing any postseason games or tournaments (other than conference tournaments) and presumably that prohibition will soon be over since the NCAA will be forced to play the Final Four in Wyoming or Utah every year if they're going to prevent states with legal sports betting from hosting.

So that means in the next 10 years, you'll almost definitely see a Final Four in Las Vegas at the new Raiders Stadium. I'd bet you'll probably see a college football title game at Raiders Stadium before 2030 as well. T-Mobile Arena will be a popular site for regional finals at some point possibly. There's been rumors that the women's basketball tournament will play its entire Sweet 16 in Las Vegas since there are several 13,000+ arenas on the Strip (with one more to come from MSG in 2021).

The net effect of those on the Las Vegas economy far outweights even a slight dip in sports betting revenue and I'm not convinced sports betting revenue in Las Vegas will dip at all. If anything I expect it to increase.

ETA: All those things I've mentioned have already been bid on by the LVCVA in the last few years despite the prohibition. They've been laying groundwork with the NCAA and once the dam bursts you're going to see Las Vegas win a lot of these events going forward. Ironically, the first NCAA events to be hosted will probably end up being things that won't even be bet on like NCAA national finals for things like golf, etc. I'd also bet my mortgage that Las Vegas gets a Frozen Four before it gets the basketball tournament.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:58 pm
by Nonlinear FC
Hmm... Is ASU close enough to the "local" host of a Frozen Four?

Trying to remember who got that nod when Tampa had it. Come to think of it, not sure who got it when it was in DC.

Huh. Says Navy.. So I guess you can just have a club team?

Oh, shit... Tampa's was co-hosted by Wisconsin??

Frozen Four in Vegas in 6 years.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:00 pm
by brian
Nonlinear FC wrote: Mon May 14, 2018 12:58 pm Hmm... Is ASU close enough to the "local" host of a Frozen Four?

Trying to remember who got that nod when Tampa had it. Come to think of it, not sure who got it when it was in DC.

Huh. Says Navy.. So I guess you can just have a club team?

Oh, shit... Tampa's was co-hosted by Wisconsin??

Frozen Four in Vegas in 6 years.
Arizona State would likely be the host. They already play what is intended to be an annual tournament at T-Mobile every year.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:11 pm
by Nonlinear FC
Yeah, makes perfect sense, but if Tampa can get by with Wisconsin... I was going to say all bets are off, but stopped myself because that's cheesy.

Shit...

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 2:27 pm
by brian
The First State is the second to have full sports betting.


Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 2:34 pm
by rass
Yeah, they've had parlay cards for years, under some grandfathered exception or another, so casinos already have sports books built in.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:54 am
by rass
NJ goes live today.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am
by mister d
If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am
by brian
mister d wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:52 am
by tennbengal
Gonna make it up to Delaware Park next week for a poker tourney and will get my first bets down there. Looking forward to it.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 am
by P.D.X.
I've followed MLS lines casually and gotta say there's some $ to be made there before the handicappers get it dialed in.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:05 am
by brian
P.D.X. wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 am I've followed MLS lines casually and gotta say there's some $ to be made there before the handicappers get it dialed in.
Most professional sports bettors are guys who hyper-focus on one particular sport or even subgroups of one particular sport. Unless big money starts coming in on MLS games (unlikely) that edge will always be there because they don't have the manpower to devote to it beyond using the computers to set lines. They'll adjust a little based on injuries, etc, but lines on stuff like MLS, NHL, etc. can be beaten. Pro football and major college football, not so much.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:06 am
by L-Jam3
brian wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am
mister d wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.
I'm guessing sooner in NJ. There are apps where you can play slots/table games at AC establishments so long as you are physically in Jersey.

ETA. I'm certainly looking forward to teaching my kids about wagering, although it'll be later than my dad taught me. He showed me how baccarat (chemin de fer style) works when I was in first grade or so.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:07 am
by brian
L-Jam3 wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:06 am
brian wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am
mister d wrote: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.
I'm guessing sooner in NJ. There are apps where you can play slots/table games at AC establishments so long as you are physically in Jersey.
Yeah, it's the same technology and the same operators in NJ (William Hill, etc.) as Nevada and we've had that technology for years. So it's just a question of licensing and ramping up. You're right though. They're probably shooting for the start of football season.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:44 am
by A_B
From ESPN:

"The point spread was invented in the early 1940s by math teacher-turned-bookmaker Charles McNeil. It is the great equalizer of the NFL.

In fact, over the last 15 regular seasons, NFL favorites have gone 1,859-1,860 against the spread, with 111 pushes, according to odds database BetLabsSports.com.

Also during that time frame, 1,890 games have gone over the total and 1,886 have stayed under the total, with 64 games landing squarely on the over/under."

Um. That's amazing.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:55 am
by Pruitt
Not to make a bad joke - but what are the odds against the people making these spreads being so damned good at it?

That is incredible.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:59 am
by Ryan
That explains the old saying about how casinos and houses in Arkansas are roughly the same size

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:06 am
by GoodKarma
For our professional gambling Swampers...do you use any sort of newsletter/website/tout service, etc. to make picks? If so, do you have any recommendations?

Before the most recent banking ban I bet football on occasion and always just made my own picks. I stopped for while but am thinking about getting back in game.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:31 am
by degenerasian
A_B wrote: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:44 am From ESPN:

"The point spread was invented in the early 1940s by math teacher-turned-bookmaker Charles McNeil. It is the great equalizer of the NFL.

In fact, over the last 15 regular seasons, NFL favorites have gone 1,859-1,860 against the spread, with 111 pushes, according to odds database BetLabsSports.com.

Also during that time frame, 1,890 games have gone over the total and 1,886 have stayed under the total, with 64 games landing squarely on the over/under."

Um. That's amazing.
I wonder what the breakdown on the history of home dogs is. I know guys who swear on picking only home dogs will be a guaranteed profit.
And break that down further with the post-99 Browns being home dogs.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:14 pm
by brian
As usual, Rovell misses the most interesting part of the story. This $50K winning parlay ticket was bought in a truck stop just off I-15 not a "real" casino (at least not how you and I would think of it). Nevada FTW.


Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm
by degenerasian
I just took the over 52.5 on tonight's Fleet/Commandors game because it's on tv.


/gambling degenerate

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:01 pm
by Pruitt
degenerasian wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm I just took the over 52.5 on tonight's Fleet/Commandors game because it's on tv.


/gambling degenerate
Friend of mine told me that he bet on Ping pong on Bet 365 once. He took it as a sign that he should close his account.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:22 pm
by degenerasian
Pruitt wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:01 pm
degenerasian wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm I just took the over 52.5 on tonight's Fleet/Commandors game because it's on tv.


/gambling degenerate
Friend of mine told me that he bet on Ping pong on Bet 365 once. He took it as a sign that he should close his account.
That is just stupid, dumb sports are blind shots in the dark.
A friend of mine once had $200 riding on a frame of snooker. He also closed his account.

I can actually justify this bet.
A) it's football
B) It's Mike Martz vs Mike Riley, should be some offense.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:00 pm
by brian
degenerasian wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:22 pm
Pruitt wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:01 pm
degenerasian wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm I just took the over 52.5 on tonight's Fleet/Commandors game because it's on tv.


/gambling degenerate
Friend of mine told me that he bet on Ping pong on Bet 365 once. He took it as a sign that he should close his account.
That is just stupid, dumb sports are blind shots in the dark.
A friend of mine once had $200 riding on a frame of snooker. He also closed his account.

I can actually justify this bet.
A) it's football
B) It's Mike Martz vs Mike Riley, should be some offense.
The rules are supposed to favor offense, but typically with poorer players and no practice time, defense should rule the day as happened with the USFL, XFL and other upstart leagues. Good luck though! (Seriously. I probably shouldn't use exclamation points.)

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:14 pm
by degenerasian
The number has gone up to 54.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:02 pm
by degenerasian
Some nice plays but no finish.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:44 pm
by degenerasian
I learned from yesterday and took the under on both games today.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:46 pm
by Pruitt
degenerasian wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:44 pm I learned from yesterday and took the under on both games today.
^^^^^
A Cry for help!

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 2:17 pm
by wlu_lax6
If only the frog still had a front page...and scores...could have been a contender
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/bleache ... bling.html

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:29 pm
by brian
I know Mattress Mack has been betting the Astros to hedge against his losses to his business if Houston wins the WS, but he's got so much equity in the Astros at this point I'm thinking he legitimately needs them to win tonight to avoid a big seven-figure loss. The betting market at Circa sports book on tonight's game is so crazy that you're getting an insane overlay if you want to bet the Nationals because he is betting so much there on the Astros. Circa is trying to balance out ITS books as much as possible because if the Astros win then Derek Stevens (owner of Circa, The D, etc.) stands to lose around $5 million personally.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:34 pm
by mister d
Feels like an unbetable game unless you’re simply betting against Scherzer’s health. No way to confidently take the Nats.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:39 pm
by brian
You're getting about an extra $20-30 (on a $100 line) at Circa to bet the Nationals today versus almost any other book in town. He has sharps from all over town going there to bet regardless of their opinion on the game because overlays like this simply never happen even with a business that is market-driven as far as lines. I've been following sports betting for two decades and I've never seen anything like it.

ETA: The idea of one guy with about $20 million of equity (maybe more, reports vary) riding on one game is fucking insane.

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:45 pm
by mister d
Does anyone know what he has at risk net?

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:56 pm
by brian
mister d wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:45 pm Does anyone know what he has at risk net?
From people/gambling sources I trust (Perdue, Jimmy Vaccaro) I've heard about $20M, but the losses if the Astros lose get offset by however much he made on the "free furniture" promotions in Houston which no one can know much he has at "risk" there. It's a pretty genius way to hedge potential business losses for a promotion like this frankly. (I know you can get insurance on those, but why pay the premiums when you can just legally bet on the actual games.)

Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:56 pm
by Giff
That’s a lot of hookers and blow.