Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I still expect Kavanaugh to get confirmed. I don’t think Thomas would get confirmed today, even with this GOP Senate. Looking back at the Thomas hearings it’s pretty remarkable how regressive attitudes were towards workplace sexual harassment back then. Even many Democrats, including and especially Joe Biden, were unwilling to show empathy towards Hill or treat her allegations with the gravity they warranted.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Clarence Thomas would never be nominated by Donald Trump. He’s too tan.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Giff wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:24 am I feel like the Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas stuff would feel a lot creepier if it happened today.
100%.

Everything is creepier today.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Pruitt wrote: Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:04 pm
mister d wrote: Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:59 pm Older guys, was this how it felt when Thomas got confirmed or is this one grosser?
Grosser considering the surrounding bullshit of Trump and the party, but nowhere near as gross as the Thomas confirmation.

I am in no way excusing what Kavanaugh did. But I will say that these incidents occurred when he was a teenager and drunk. Clarence Thomas' acts happened when he was already an adult and working for the government.

And Hill was vilified for her testimony by the Senators on the committee.
Agree with this. Also, maybe it's just my recollection being warped, but I'm pretty sure this is true: there was a LOT more character assassination of Hill. I mean, granted, give this one time, but with Hill there was a lot of stuff entered into the record about how she was a bad woman, scorned, up to no good, etc. I think the White Men have been very careful not to go too deep on that front with Ford.

And if they don't actually do the questioning, no matter what the woman lawyer says, it's not going to have the same look/feel of a bunch of rich white dudes going after a woman.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Guess Avenetti wasn't bluffing.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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tennbengal wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:07 am
Good luck and all the best to Julie Swetnick, for whom life will also now never be the same. Looking at her credentials in that document, smearing her is gonna be quite something to watch the right undertake.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I guarantee one of the whisper campaigns is going to be "there's no way Prep guys would be hanging at a party with a girl from Gaithersburg HS."

Put it in the bank.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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i don't think the GOP can keep playing this game (too extreme even for them)

Apparently Republicans are now privately saying they may not have the votes to confirm Kavanaugh
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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And I haven't busted this out, but fuck it: I know a lot of guys that went to Prep. Almost without fail, these guys are just fucking pricks. I know ONE guy that is a good dude, the rest are the kind of frat-douches that you have to lock a grin on your face and power through their bullshit when at a party or wherever you encounter them.

And, for the record, I have some good friends that went to other DC private schools, and they just aren't this level of dick. I'm not saying Gonzaga or St. Albans or Maret or whereever doesn't/didn't produce pricks. But the percentage of OUTWARDLY assholish guys I've met from Prep is pretty stunning. It's like they are proud of it, whereas other schools at least dabble in cultivating some humility. Prep guys have a chip on their shoulder or something.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I really like the only one I know. And David Chang makes great food.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:28 am And I haven't busted this out, but fuck it: I know a lot of guys that went to Prep. Almost without fail, these guys are just fucking pricks. I know ONE guy that is a good dude, the rest are the kind of frat-douches that you have to lock a grin on your face and power through their bullshit when at a party or wherever you encounter them.

And, for the record, I have some good friends that went to other DC private schools, and they just aren't this level of dick. I'm not saying Gonzaga or St. Albans or Maret or whereever doesn't/didn't produce pricks. But the percentage of OUTWARDLY assholish guys I've met from Prep is pretty stunning. It's like they are proud of it, whereas other schools at least dabble in cultivating some humility. Prep guys have a chip on their shoulder or something.
So this is really the ultimate bastion of white male privilege versus the women of America.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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The fact that Grassley scheduled a vote for Friday at 9:30am is REALLY biting them in the ass at this point. That's just absurd and highlights the farcical nature of the whole affair.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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And back to the dude's character:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... 7b66131601

The guy is lying. He lied repeatedly in his testimony before any of this came up.

If dude had just said something along the lines of "I certainly fell into a drinking culture in my youth, but I've learned from those indiscretions and am a better man for it." Because people around him today certainly are pretty vehement that he's a "good guy."

Shit, I wonder if these other two accusers even come out of the woodwork if he'd just gotten in front of it.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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He sounds like a high schooler talking to his parents.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:07 pm I'm just having a REALLY tough time with this allegation. Shit happened in high school, if it happened at all, which is pretty damn impossible to sort out unless someone comes forward to corroborate.

I don't want the guy confirmed, but this is just a really thin sheet of ice to build that case on.
BTW, one of the things I didn't say here, that I made pretty repeatedly in the Kevin Spacey thread, is that until some other boxes are checked, I hold out on judging dudes. Those boxes:

* Corroboration by people she told at the time, or that she told long before the #metoo movement broke out.
* Serious vetting of allegations by reputable media sources (which had already happened here with The New Yorker, just stating the criteria)
* Other women coming out with similar stories.

At the time this thread was started, kind of thin (imo)... But now? Holy shit. check-check-check
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Giff wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:24 am I feel like the Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas stuff would feel a lot creepier if it happened today.
Totally, especially since Thomas was the fucking Chairman of the EEOC while harassing Hill who was his subordinate. I don't know how that ultimate hypocrisy gets lost in the discussion of Thomas.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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tennbengal wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:13 am
tennbengal wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:07 am
Good luck and all the best to Julie Swetnick, for whom life will also now never be the same. Looking at her credentials in that document, smearing her is gonna be quite something to watch the right undertake.
Something about this...Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Avenatti’s next witness states Kavanaugh was one of the people that would spike the punch and later entered rooms where the “trains” occurred?

The Montgomery County District Attorney is a Democrat, btw.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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tennbengal wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:08 am Guess Avenetti wasn't bluffing.
That's the thing about Avenatti. He's clearly not an angel, and I'm sure he's out for himself as much as or more than protecting the public. But he's smart enough to know that if he gets caught bluffing, he's done. (That's probably the main difference between the right-wing media ecosystem and the MSM.) So he's not going to be making accusations unless he can back them up.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:44 amBTW, one of the things I didn't say here, that I made pretty repeatedly in the Kevin Spacey thread, is that until some other boxes are checked, I hold out on judging dudes. Those boxes:

* Corroboration by people she told at the time, or that she told long before the #metoo movement broke out.
* Serious vetting of allegations by reputable media sources (which had already happened here with The New Yorker, just stating the criteria)
* Other women coming out with similar stories.

At the time this thread was started, kind of thin (imo)... But now? Holy shit. check-check-check
The blanket problem with what you're saying is that an accusation demands you make a judgment whether you want to or not. To remain neutral (or explicitly say "I don't believe you unless you can meet this threshold") is to inherently judge the woman's word as insufficient.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Zero mention of rape in that calendar. What more proof do you need?

https://assets.documentcloud.org/docume ... -Pages.pdf
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Anybody have any thoughts why she would chose to go through Avenetti? She's clearly a smart person...I would think that if Avenetti was a questionable character she would choose a more "professional" type lawyer?

Or is he a good choice because he's already been through the Stormy Daniels thing and does a fantastic job with the media management?
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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GoodKarma wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:43 pm Anybody have any thoughts why she would chose to go through Avenetti? She's clearly a smart person...I would think that if Avenetti was a questionable character she would choose a more "professional" type lawyer?

Or is he a good choice because he's already been through the Stormy Daniels thing and does a fantastic job with the media management?
because he scares the shit out of republicans and the media will take notice.

as we speak, more allegations from his high school days currently breaking....
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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mister d wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:17 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:44 amBTW, one of the things I didn't say here, that I made pretty repeatedly in the Kevin Spacey thread, is that until some other boxes are checked, I hold out on judging dudes. Those boxes:

* Corroboration by people she told at the time, or that she told long before the #metoo movement broke out.
* Serious vetting of allegations by reputable media sources (which had already happened here with The New Yorker, just stating the criteria)
* Other women coming out with similar stories.

At the time this thread was started, kind of thin (imo)... But now? Holy shit. check-check-check
The blanket problem with what you're saying is that an accusation demands you make a judgment whether you want to or not. To remain neutral (or explicitly say "I don't believe you unless you can meet this threshold") is to inherently judge the woman's word as insufficient.
Yeah, you're right. I'm still not going to be comfortable ruining someone's career with uncorroborated allegations. I know I'll have Giff yelling at me for losing all the elections, but I just can't bring myself to go there. I mean, I start from a "why would she come forward if this wasn't true" position.

It's not that I didn't think she was telling the truth when this story broke. It's about some kind of due process in all of this.

I also want to be clear, I wasn't aware at the time I posted initially that she had notes from a therapist from over 6 years ago. That alone is enough for me. I don't need all of the boxes checked, and frankly the more I sat on the New Yorker article, the more convinced I was...

My point in the quoted post is that this is "slam dunk, fuck that guy" level now.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I'm guessing he's good and he's in the spotlight simultaneously.

This is about truth as much as trolling. And he knows how to do both.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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degenerasian wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:45 pm
GoodKarma wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:43 pm Anybody have any thoughts why she would chose to go through Avenetti? She's clearly a smart person...I would think that if Avenetti was a questionable character she would choose a more "professional" type lawyer?

Or is he a good choice because he's already been through the Stormy Daniels thing and does a fantastic job with the media management?
because he scares the shit out of republicans and the media will take notice.

as we speak, more allegations from his high school days currently breaking....

Yeah, I would guess she saw that he beat Trump at his own game and thought she'd seen a guy who can handle the most glaring of spotlights and the hottest of seats.

ETA - But it's a valid point, to be sure. Guy brings some Samsonite.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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mister d wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:17 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:44 amBTW, one of the things I didn't say here, that I made pretty repeatedly in the Kevin Spacey thread, is that until some other boxes are checked, I hold out on judging dudes. Those boxes:

* Corroboration by people she told at the time, or that she told long before the #metoo movement broke out.
* Serious vetting of allegations by reputable media sources (which had already happened here with The New Yorker, just stating the criteria)
* Other women coming out with similar stories.

At the time this thread was started, kind of thin (imo)... But now? Holy shit. check-check-check
The blanket problem with what you're saying is that an accusation demands you make a judgment whether you want to or not. To remain neutral (or explicitly say "I don't believe you unless you can meet this threshold") is to inherently judge the woman's word as insufficient.
On the other hand, twenty-five years as a lawyer has led me to believe that no one's word is sufficient. Everyone's story must be looked at critically and in light of any corroborating or conflicting evidence.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Don't they teach you that in law school?
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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BEACH WEEK.

Like, this is so obvious and self evident at this point. The man is a predator. This country sucks.

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Except (1) this isn’t about a legal threshold and (2) direct sexual assault is a uniquely disbelieved crime. If a woman says she was raped, most people believe her. If a woman says she was raped by _______, that inherent belief goes away.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I mostly reserve my 1% doubt so that I don't feel hypocritical when the GOP inevitably gets someone to make up an accusation against Democrat X
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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mister d wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:03 pm Except (1) this isn’t about a legal threshold and (2) direct sexual assault is a uniquely disbelieved crime. If a woman says she was raped, most people believe her. If a woman says she was raped by _______, that inherent belief goes away.
You're talking about believing the victim. We are all on the same page, as far as I can tell. What I am talking about is ramifications.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:30 pm
mister d wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:03 pm Except (1) this isn’t about a legal threshold and (2) direct sexual assault is a uniquely disbelieved crime. If a woman says she was raped, most people believe her. If a woman says she was raped by _______, that inherent belief goes away.
You're talking about believing the victim. We are all on the same page, as far as I can tell. What I am talking about is ramifications.
I'm not even talking legal thresholds, though. Enough people lie about enough things for enough reasons that I'm not comfortable even forming meaningless message-board opinions based simply on an accusation.

It sucks that one natural consequence of not taking accusations at face value is that accusations of direct sexual assault are uniquely disbelieved. But because accusations of sexual assault are so serious to the accused, I don't see that as a reason to depart from the principle.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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Johnnie wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:02 pm
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This document is now a part of American history. Wow!
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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1. Beach Week as a 17-year-old? Their parents let them do that?

2. If he couldn't spell "achievement" by the age of 17, he shouldn't be on the Supreme Court.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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It's weird seeing Maplewood on there. I've spent many hours on that court and/or playing tennis at that park.
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Re: Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

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I get what you’re saying, Steve, but I hazard that there are considerably more unreported rapes than there are false rape accusations. And I also hazard that there are a much higher percent of unreported rapes than there are a percentage of false accusations. So for me, I tend to believe the woman’s story simply out of playing the percentages.
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