NFL Week 3

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A_B
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NFL Week 3

Post by A_B »

Things not getting better for LeSean McCoy as somoene is corroborating some of the info in that weird house invasion thing.

Also, his real name is, inexplicably, LeShawn. Did he just think his name wasn't Scottish enough?
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by L-Jam3 »

Let's keep it official:

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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by rass »

Browns are a home favorite for the first time since Dec 2015.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

Perhaps the Steelers have so much internet drama because the wonderful fanbase mf's them constantly on Twitter? I haven't seen any other fanbase go after its own players so incessantly.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by mister d »

I've said the same thing about Philadelphia. Legit half of their HoF or near HoF level long-time players of my lifetime have been shit on by their own fans through their peak.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

Parenthetically called "the week everyone picked Minnesota in their Survivor pools".
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

brian wrote: Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:46 am Parenthetically called "the week everyone picked Minnesota in their Survivor pools".
These are the weeks you win survivor pools. My site says 2/3 of people are taking Minnesota this week. I might go with Baltimore - less than 0.5% on the Ravens at home v. Denver.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by L-Jam3 »

Figure there was a lot of people, myself included, who already went with Baltimore Week 1 within 2 minutes of learning Peterman was starting.

The Rams (hosting the Chargers) or the Chiefs (hosting SF in the early slot) might be good options if you want to save Minnesota, as they get the Arizona Dumpster Fire in Week 6.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

I have a pretty simple philosophy with Survivor to not "save" teams". If you get a great matchup, take it and assume that there's enough rickety teams either because of QB injuries or other reasons you'll get a favorable matchup somehow later in the season.

I agree with the philosophy to not fall too in love with chalk, but I really don't see any scenarios where Buffalo beats Minnesota this weekend. There's a chance of course -- there's always a chance -- but I'm not going to reach on Baltimore in case Denver's defense manages to beat Baltimore 10-7 or something.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by mister d »

I'd be interested in seeing win percentages by selection rates.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

brian wrote: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:34 am I have a pretty simple philosophy with Survivor to not "save" teams". If you get a great matchup, take it and assume that there's enough rickety teams either because of QB injuries or other reasons you'll get a favorable matchup somehow later in the season.

I agree with the philosophy to not fall too in love with chalk, but I really don't see any scenarios where Buffalo beats Minnesota this weekend. There's a chance of course -- there's always a chance -- but I'm not going to reach on Baltimore in case Denver's defense manages to beat Baltimore 10-7 or something.
I don't save teams either. Here are my rules (I've won a 100+ person league twice and often finish in the top 10% or so):


1. NEVER take the consensus pick, at least in the large majority of situations.

2. See rule 1.

3. Don't save teams. It's not worth it.

4. Outside of certain situations (like Peterman starting for the Bills), don't base your decision on one player.

5. Don't overreact to week 1. Week 1 can confirm thoughts you had going in (the Bills will be atrocious), but don't completely change your opinion on a team based on week 1's results (Baltimore, Washington, etc). I advised a friend against taking the Skins and he took them anyway.

There's probably some I forget but basically it's one major rule, another strong one and then minor guidelines. I also look at trends...I know Gabbert is probably going to start for Tennessee, but the Jags just don't seem to play well against the Titans.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by L-Jam3 »

I agree with most of the above. The only real ironclad rule I follow is to only back home teams. In the 15 or so years I’ve been doing this I think I’ve taken a road team maybe three times, once was the Patriots in ‘07.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

Yeah, I agree with that one. In a given week unless there's something really crazy (like the '07 Pats or a massively devastating injury or something) I'm only picking from among the home teams.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by DSafetyGuy »

First couple of weeks, take established teams who are returning essentially the same team from the previous year. Some team expected to be good with a matchup against what appears to be a terrible team always gets upset in week one (Dallas in the Texans' first ever game, Miami (?) got upset by Cleveland another season).

After those couple weeks, you're more picking against the teams who have shown they are terrible than anything else. The Chargers probably aren't better than a .500 team, but they host the Raiders in Week 5. Same with the Colts, only they host Buffalo in Week 7.

And its better to use a good team than save them and end up being eliminated.

And, yes, home teams.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

Picking against the known bad teams is how you lose, generally. A few years ago everyone bet against the Jags, and most of the pool went out when they finally won.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by mister d »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:12 pm1. NEVER take the consensus pick, at least in the large majority of situations.
Wouldn't this depend on just how consensus-y your league trends? Or do all survivors tend to have a 50%+ team weekly?
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

Seems pretty accurate.

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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

mister d wrote: Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:08 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:12 pm1. NEVER take the consensus pick, at least in the large majority of situations.
Wouldn't this depend on just how consensus-y your league trends? Or do all survivors tend to have a 50%+ team weekly?
In a way. Generally, all leagues are going to trend consensus-y on big favorites. But when you get down to the end of the year, you're not hoping for a mass elimination game so it's not as important.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by rass »

The Browns are going full turd tonight.

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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Pruitt »

God help me, I just bet $20 on the Browns.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by GoodKarma »

Pruitt wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:41 pm God help me, I just bet $20 on the Browns.
I've had my finger on the button all week and just can't seem to do it. The thought of putting any financial stake in the Browns is such a difficult mental hurdle to leap.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Pruitt »

GoodKarma wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:56 pm
Pruitt wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:41 pm God help me, I just bet $20 on the Browns.
I've had my finger on the button all week and just can't seem to do it. The thought of putting any financial stake in the Browns is such a difficult mental hurdle to leap.
I felt I had to do it after some smack talk with a guy in one of my pools.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by tennbengal »

Pruitt wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:41 pm God help me, I just bet $20 on the Browns.
They are my pick in the office picks pool.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

Pretty eventful weekend, when you have sex with Trump's mushroom dick and almost get raped by Ben Roethlisberger in the span of 24 hours.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Ryan »

I like tracking punts per minute now.
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Re: NFL Week 3

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rass wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:36 pm The Browns are going full turd tonight.
The Jets went full turd tonight.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Pruitt »

He's not the worse QB I've ever seen - that was J.P. Losman - but I have seen Tyrod taylor more often than any other bad QB.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by A_B »

Interested to see how second half starts
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Johnnie »

Haaaaa.



Isaiah Crowell wipes his ass with the football and throws it into the stands as a touchdown celebration.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by sancarlos »

I thought that Oakland was the only stadium that played on a dirt infield. I stand corrected.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by HaulCitgo »

Can't see game but did they really punt there?
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by A_B »

Baker won the job.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Pruitt »

A_B wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:36 pmBaker won the job.
I think he won the job when Tyrod underthrew Callaway!

One half, but the boy looks good.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

Browns have won more games this year than 2016 and 2017 combined.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Pruitt »

brian wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:03 pm Browns have won more games this year than 2016 and 2017 combined.
I will correct you - they have as many wins...

Tonight was their 2nd win in their last 41 games.

But most importantly, they are ahead of the Steelers.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by brian »

I’m counting a tie as half a win. Sue me.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by sancarlos »

I had to double-check to make sure this tweet wasn't from The Onion.

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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Sabo »

sancarlos wrote: Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:21 pm I had to double-check to make sure this tweet wasn't from The Onion.

My guess is he’s doing that as a courtesy to Tyrod since he’s a veteran player. But there’s no way Baker isn’t the starter next week.
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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Ryan »

Who the hell would even think about replacing Tyrod Taylor with a rookie when you're still in the playoff hunt?
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The

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Re: NFL Week 3

Post by Gunpowder »

Baker Mayfield looks reallllly good.
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