2018 Midterm Elections

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm

Good fucking riddance Barbara comstock.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm

VA-10 flips to Dems. Officially +1 tonight.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:50 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm Good fucking riddance Barbara comstock.

Fuck yes.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:51 pm

Well over half KY06 in and Barr down almost 10k. 5 percentage points.

Strike that. down to 1 point margin.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:57 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:51 pm Well over half KY06 in and Barr down almost 10k. 5 percentage points.

Strike that. down to 1 point margin.

NYT has her up 600 votes, but that's with all of Madison Co. in and 20 percent of Fayette still out there. I don't know shit about KY but that seems promising still.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm

Looks like she's gonna win Fayette County by about 25K and it might not be enough.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm

Smashing that refresh.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... tions.html

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:16 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm Looks like she's gonna win Fayette County by about 25K and it might not be enough.

Yeah that’s kinda what I’m seeing too

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm

Doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen for her. She’s a tough lady though. Can share a foxhole with me any day. Was hoping for an early pickup there with her to maybe help me not sweat as much tonight.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm

538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:18 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm 538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.

It would be crazy if the Dems lost both house and Senate but Beto won.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:19 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm 538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.

Just moved to 50/50.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:20 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:19 pm
Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm 538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.
Just moved to 50/50.

Just saw that. WTF.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm

Fuck all this.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 pm

Not a conspiracy guy, but wrf

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 pm Not a conspiracy guy, but wrf

I know what’s happening. The republic is dead.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm

Seriously down to 39%? How?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:25 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm Seriously down to 39%? How?

I'd equally believe either answer.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:27 pm

Whoever controls how the votes are counted is the power. And all the levers are controlled by the minority to preserve the minority.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm

This is somehow worse than two years ago.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm

5 in 9 for Dems right now

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:31 pm

It’s not gonna happen. This country is done. Combination of voting suppression and outright voter theft and racism. I can’t take this anymore.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:35 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm 5 in 9 for Dems right now

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

I was just about to quote this. The PREEMINENT election forecaster lets his odds move when an 83% chance moves to called? JFC.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:37 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm Fuck all this.

This is correct.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:48 pm

This truly isn’t my country. I am a stranger here.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:49 pm

Yeah pretty sure I’m deleting social media tonight. Good Lord.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:52 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:49 pm Yeah pretty sure I’m deleting social media tonight. Good Lord.

Yeah. I think for sure deleting my twitter account after this.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm

NYT showing 13 toss up/rep lean races as democratic leads at moment, and california has several republican held tossups. I guess I don't see this as over yet?

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:59 pm

This country wants a fascist daddy to protect it against shoeless immigrants I guess. So be it.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:00 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm NYT showing 13 toss up/rep lean races as democratic leads at moment, and california has several republican held tossups. I guess I don't see this as over yet?

It’s not. But it’s at best close. Pelosi already signaling attempts to be “bi-partisan” IF they squeak out a majority, which is useless against a dictator. Dem leadership still doesn’t know how to resist. And that’s the best case scenario.

Square Rob · Post by **Square Rob** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:03 pm

So, my great fear has been that Dem’s win back the house, and sometime in the next 12 months the stock market crashes due to the deficit drag and djt and the gop scream to the heavens that it’s the dem’s fault. Trump rides that to a near victory in his re-election campaign over surprise candidate Sherrod brown. Dems don’t gain any ground in a more favorable senate map, and gop has control for a decade.

Just saying that, because, well, fuck.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:08 pm

Blackburn wins Tennessee. So much for Taylor Swift.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:10 pm

If Brat indeed lost in Richmond, va, that makes up a little for McGrath coming up short.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:16 pm

I will say this. Looks like Beto is going to lose narrowly tonight and I hope he announces he’s running for President tomorrow.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:18 pm

If I added up this model correctly, his current +25 was a 17% chance. At some point either polling/projection is broken or the vote counts themselves are.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:31 pm

Square Rob wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:03 pm So, my great fear has been that Dem’s win back the house, and sometime in the next 12 months the stock market crashes due to the deficit drag and djt and the gop scream to the heavens that it’s the dem’s fault. Trump rides that to a near victory in his re-election campaign over surprise candidate Sherrod brown. Dems don’t gain any ground in a more favorable senate map, and gop has control for a decade.

Just saying that, because, well, fuck.

100% with you. Well, not sure about the Sherrod Brown part, but the rest of it. Even if the GOP holds both Houses, they will still blame obstructionist Dems for every failure.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:31 pm

A small bit of good news tonight. And maybe a hopeful sign for Florida, 2020.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm

Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:45 pm

I see a lot of people lamenting the Dems not winning the Senate but that shit was never happening.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:48 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?

I heartily welcome you to team raised eyebrow.