2018 Midterm Elections

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duff
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by duff »

I hate my state so much at times like this.
To quote both Bruce Prichard and Tony Schiavone, "Fuck Duff Meltzer."
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by A_B »

I know Donnelly was vulnerable in IN but surprised at how bad a rout it seems to have been.

(I met Braun, and he really seemed like a good dude.)
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by mister d »

tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:48 pm
mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?
I heartily welcome you to team raised eyebrow.
That's like welcoming Florida to Team Racism tonight. I've been here for a while.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by tennbengal »

mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:58 pm
tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:48 pm
mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?
I heartily welcome you to team raised eyebrow.
That's like welcoming Florida to Team Racism tonight. I've been here for a while.
Dammit. We need t-shirts. Or secret handshakes.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by tennbengal »

Also, I’d feel better about this night if I thought dem leadership in the House were the fighters and brawlers they need to be, rather than simpering appeasers. If house flips, pelosi is wrong choice to lead it, but she’s not going to step aside, nor will Hoyer. And their time has passed.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by tennbengal »

Kris Kobach lost!

Like!
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by duff »

A_B wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm I know Donnelly was vulnerable in IN but surprised at how bad a rout it seems to have been.

(I met Braun, and he really seemed like a good dude.)
I truly thought it would be closer. I had an inkling that Braun would win, but damn, that was a shellacking.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Johnnie wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:09 pm
That's alotta Ks.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by duff »

Another big issue that people had no idea about was the passing of an amendment to the state constitution making for a balanced budget. This will destroy pensions for state employees (which includes public schools teachers like my wife).

Just another ploy by Rs to make it look like they are the fiscal responsible ones.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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nbc calling it for cruz. damn.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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brian wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:45 pm I see a lot of people lamenting the Dems not winning the Senate but that shit was never happening.
Yep. And Trump and Fox will be boasting about how Republicans holding the Senate is a huge sign of support for Trump.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by HaulCitgo »

Ask Illinois how those public pensions are working out
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Looking forward to a Dem controlled House kicking off their term by issuing a formal apology to Kavanaugh.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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538 has the Dems at 87% chance of winning the House, while NYTimes has it at <95%. That's something, right?
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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I know its a soft target and doesn't really matter, but Silver had Nelson at 70.4% and Donnelly at 71.8% and I'm beyond done with the "well, ABC had then closer to 75%" nonsense. He clearly doesn't have materially better-than-the-polls insight, he just runs a more conservative model.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm Kris Kobach lost!

Like!
538 still giving Kobach a slight edge unless I'm misunderstanding. They have Kobach at 57% chance of winning. NYTimes has him down 51% to 40% with 54% reported. Fuck, I would love to see that POS lose.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by A_B »

The Sybian wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm 538 has the Dems at 87% chance of winning the House, while NYTimes has it at <95%. That's something, right?
Well, 87% is less than 95%?
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm I know its a soft target and doesn't really matter, but Silver had Nelson at 70.4% and Donnelly at 71.8% and I'm beyond done with the "well, ABC had then closer to 75%" nonsense. He clearly doesn't have materially better-than-the-polls insight, he just runs a more conservative model.
He is as credible as any poll. Period. How he is still seen as some sort of guru is a tribute to his packaging.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by tennbengal »

The Sybian wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:30 pm
tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm Kris Kobach lost!

Like!
538 still giving Kobach a slight edge unless I'm misunderstanding. They have Kobach at 57% chance of winning. NYTimes has him down 51% to 40% with 54% reported. Fuck, I would love to see that POS lose.
He’s lost.

And the wave happened - but gerrymandering is a bitch. Dems looking like +9.2 , but gains not what they should be in that scenario. Still, winning Staten Island, middle of Oklahoma, and Kansas (with a lesbian Native American) is fun.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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The Sybian wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:30 pm
tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm Kris Kobach lost!

Like!
538 still giving Kobach a slight edge unless I'm misunderstanding. They have Kobach at 57% chance of winning. NYTimes has him down 51% to 40% with 54% reported. Fuck, I would love to see that POS lose.
CNN shows him down 7% with 88% in.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by A_B »

At this point, Governorships are more important than anything to set redistricting. Dems probably need Florida or Ohio at a minimum. Georgia would help but not as much.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Pruitt wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:35 pmHe is as credible as any poll. Period. How he is still seen as some sort of guru is a tribute to his packaging.
Right. He's the field, not the exception to the field.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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A_B wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:34 pm
The Sybian wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm 538 has the Dems at 87% chance of winning the House, while NYTimes has it at <95%. That's something, right?
Well, 87% is less than 95%?
What I meant was, can I start to feel a little less freaked out? A couple hours ago, you guys were making it seem like the Dems weren't taking the House. Just looking for confirmation that I can start to believe Dems will control the House. I feel a complete lack of trust in any of this after 2016.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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What I'm saying is, you messed up your greater than less than symbol.

(and i was the one talking bengal off the ledge!)
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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You can stop freaking out, yes. Silver's projections swung too crazy (like that post before said) based on locks moving to called.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:50 pm You can stop freaking out, yes. Silver's projections swung too crazy (like that post before said) based on locks moving to called.
We all also had immediate flashbacks from the weirdness that is Florida.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Oh, I still find the polls + initiatives versus Nelson/Gillum results "curious".
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Dana Bash giggling about Trump now being under subpoena threat was a little bit sexy.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

Post by tennbengal »

A_B wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:46 pm What I'm saying is, you messed up your greater than less than symbol.

(and i was the one talking bengal off the ledge!)
The Florida shit threw me. And McGrath coming up short. And that fucking needle.

I’m back now. Time for investigations and checks and angry phone calls to dem leadership in the house if those things don’t happen immediately.

Dave Brat losing is also very sweet.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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tennbengal wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:05 pm
A_B wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:46 pm What I'm saying is, you messed up your greater than less than symbol.

(and i was the one talking bengal off the ledge!)
The Florida shit threw me. And McGrath coming up short. And that fucking needle.

I’m back now. Time for investigations and checks and angry phone calls to dem leadership in the house if those things don’t happen immediately.

Dave Brat losing is also very sweet.
Yeah, I went and met TT for a couple of drinks for an hour and a half (nice guy, BTW) and everything just changed in a heartbeat with the House.

Look, y'all. Gillum losing sucks and losing a couple of these Senate races in purple states like Florida and red states like Indiana sucks. And some other stuff sucks.

But the only thing that mattered -- that REALLY, REALLY mattered -- was taking back the House. And against all odds, it looks like that happened.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Don't get caught up in the bullshit like Pelosi being re-elected Speaker or this that or the other thing. Having investigative and subpoena power CANNOT be overstated. It also likely protects Mueller's investigation to the final conclusion as well.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Those southeast governor races hurt too. That's the only non-Senate downside.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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The Dems are likely to get about 54% of the nationwide House vote. And they’ll win about 60% of the Senate seats being voted on.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:29 pm Those southeast governor races hurt too. That's the only non-Senate downside.
I don't think there was ever chance in GA to be honest. Maybe without the voter suppression machine, but in a truly fair election in GA it still would have been 50/50.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:29 pm Those southeast governor races hurt too. That's the only non-Senate downside.
Florida hurts. I didn’t think the Dems really had a shot in places like Georgia or Texas.

I’m hoping all those felons really do vote Dem in 2020. But I was expecting all the displaced Puerto Ricans to tip Florida this year.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Steve of phpBB wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:30 pm The Dems are likely to get about 54% of the nationwide House vote. And they’ll win about 60% of the Senate seats being voted on.
Which is an argument for a far more aggressive Dem party in terms of PR and DC and gerrymandering and other stuff far more drastic, but that won't happen. I can only get so excited by the House.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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Steve of phpBB wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:35 pm
mister d wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:29 pm Those southeast governor races hurt too. That's the only non-Senate downside.
Florida hurts. I didn’t think the Dems really had a shot in places like Georgia or Texas.

I’m hoping all those felons really do vote Dem in 2020. But I was expecting all the displaced Puerto Ricans to tip Florida this year.
Remember, Florida is a tough win in a midterm. All those old motherfuckers who just look forward to going to the polls and voting for Nazis live for midterms. 2020 with a possible additional 1 million registered voters in Florida is gonna be a different ballgame.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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My boss is a pretty decent friend of Claire McCaskill (he's a mover and shaker in MO Dem politics) and I know he's probably pretty inconsolable right now. They were holding out a lot of hope she had a good chance. He genuinely likes her as a person and a politician so that makes it harder.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections

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(And I'm with Pentz where either the stock market or housing market or something inevitably crashes 12-18 months from now and the Dems have no idea how to not absorb ownership of it.)
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