Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

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Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by rass » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:57 pm

The Part II thread started a little over a year ago, and last night was a turning point, so let's go.

Plus his as-of-this-writing current press conference sounds like an event worthy of the term "meltdown". Can't wait to find out what his secret solution to the abortion issue is.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by EnochRoot » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:07 pm

1) Fuck any sort of cross-the-aisle bullshit. Hammer home just how racist the GOP are. Make them choke on their white nationalism.
2) Speaking of choking, Send up a $15 minimum wage bill for the Senate to gag on.
3) Spend $$$$ on not only why a $15 minimum wage helps everybody, but also explain why the GOP-controlled dark money of the ultra elite does NOT want that to happen.
4) ???
5) Profit

Or, just burn it all to the fucking ground, cuz you know, eat the rich.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:19 pm

No, I agree 100 percent. The first bill the Dem leadership in the House should send to the Senate is a $15/hr minimum wage bill. Literally, the first one. They should do this by February. Once the Senate rejects it, then game on. There's at least three or four similar bills where they can show how out of touch Republicans are with the majority of the American people. They should send a bill to end the federal prohibition on cannabis to the Senate too.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by tennbengal » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:20 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:19 pm
No, I agree 100 percent. The first bill the Dem leadership in the House should send to the Senate is a $15/hr minimum wage bill. Literally, the first one. They should do this by February. Once the Senate rejects it, then game on. There's at least three or four similar bills where they can show how out of touch Republicans are with the majority of the American people. They should send a bill to end the federal prohibition on cannabis to the Senate too.
I like both of those suggestions.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by degenerasian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:26 pm

I like them too. Add healthcare and immigration.
Make the Senate obstruct everything then slam them for killing sick people and immigrants. Then slam Trump for ranting about it.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:26 pm

Guys, maybe I shouldn't feel this way -- I get it if that's the argument -- but I think the Dem leadership in the House really gets the big picture here.

They ran a great national campaign by and large to pick up the House and it's evident that a lot of the gains really were in suburban swing districts that Trump has to win in 2020. If the map last night is exactly the same in 2020, he loses the EV (with MI, PA and WI going back to the Democrats and no Democrats states that Hillary carried turning red last night.

There's excitement about some of the younger candidates that won last night as there should be, picked up some big state houses and governor's races. It's not time to get off of that message that worked last night. Now it's all about using the power of that message in the House to continue to drive that point home.

Support for pre-existing conditions, Medicare expansion, decriminalization of cannabis, a $15 minimum wage all poll at around 60 percent or higher nationally. They don't have to run on free college for all (even though I personally agree with that and even if it is also popular). They have the benefit of a lot of different policy proposals to hammer Trump and the GOP on. It's a matter of finding what works and sticking with it.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:40 pm

If the Dem House leadership had their way, AOC would be out tomorrow to get Crowley back. They're getting far too much credit for ground gains.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:41 pm

Also, Trump is ...

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Nonlinear FC » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:42 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:26 pm
Guys, maybe I shouldn't feel this way -- I get it if that's the argument -- but I think the Dem leadership in the House really gets the big picture here.

They ran a great national campaign by and large to pick up the House and it's evident that a lot of the gains really were in suburban swing districts that Trump has to win in 2020. If the map last night is exactly the same in 2020, he loses the EV (with MI, PA and WI going back to the Democrats and no Democrats states that Hillary carried turning red last night.

There's excitement about some of the younger candidates that won last night as there should be, picked up some big state houses and governor's races. It's not time to get off of that message that worked last night. Now it's all about using the power of that message in the House to continue to drive that point home.

Support for pre-existing conditions, Medicare expansion, decriminalization of cannabis, a $15 minimum wage all poll at around 60 percent or higher nationally. They don't have to run on free college for all (even though I personally agree with that and even if it is also popular). They have the benefit of a lot of different policy proposals to hammer Trump and the GOP on. It's a matter of finding what works and sticking with it.
Well, I worked for one of the Dem Leadership folks, and I can tell you... Pretty damn savvy, if not generationally speaking a little out of touch. Think Biden, with slightly less charisma. My concern is that they haven't fully grasped what you just stated, in terms of policy/legislative proposals that are what they would've seen as anathema 10 years ago.

But what has me optimistic is that those folks on the House side? They get up and lambaste each other almost every day, in a very personal way. It's just way different on the House side. They've been pissing in each others Wheaties since 1994, and everyone has very long memories. They aren't going to soft pedal this shit, they are going to fight.

The issue for all of us... What fights do they pick? If it's petty procedural bullshit, we're fucked. If they push a plausible progressive agenda, it's off to the races.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:43 pm

I think one of the things that gives me a little more hope than I normally would is that I think some of the more popular progressives like AOC and Bernie are doing a great job of sticking to the messaging I've been talking about. I don't think there's as much cat-herding as you would normally see in the Dem caucus. And I don't see there being too many Blue Dog Democrats left in the House at this point so I don't think there's too much concern over not being able to pass some meaningful legislation that will then of course be blocked in the Senate.

(Kinda what NLFC said. I think they realize the stakes here and how big they are.)

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:47 pm

I think we've poked fun at degen for being a little naive about American politics at times, but in this I think he's right.

Pelosi talking about the marketplace of ideas is some subtle signaling and tipping the hand on how they're going to fight Trump.

You don't beat Trump by out-Trumping Trump. You point out that the emperor has no clothes.

The GOP will try to turn it into a culture war like they always do, but it's not time to take the bait and to try and pass meaningful progressive (though on the moderate side) legislation and then turn around and point out to the voters that they're trying to get shit done, but guess who the problem is.

That's not always going to be easy and it's not going to be all wine and roses, but it can be done.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by tennbengal » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:47 pm

Sessions resigns.

Looks like the first move from Trump to end Mueller underway.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 pm

tennbengal wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:47 pm
Sessions resigns.

Looks like the first move from Trump to end Mueller underway.
Yeah, definitely a "wait until after the midterms" type thing. I was hoping Mueller would have a dump of indictments ready for right after the midterms and who knows, he still might.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 pm

Non-antagonistic question: Do you still advocating working, at all, with the R party if they let him fire Mueller?
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:05 pm

mister d wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 pm
Non-antagonistic question: Do you still advocating working, at all, with the R party if they let him fire Mueller?
On anything related to the Mueller investigation or other stuff? This isn't a zero-sum game. Congress passes (in theory) hundreds of bills a year on a wide variety of stuff. I want the Democrats to draw a line in the sand to protect the Mueller investigation. Period.

But I don't see how that precludes trying to work out a free trade deal with Canada, for example.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Rush2112 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 pm

So Ivanka to AG?
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:13 pm

Firing Sessions was expected. The chess pieces are moving around on the board. Mueller has the goods and Trump knows it. And after last night it's gonna be WAAAAAY harder to keep what he knows under wraps.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:43 pm

It's worth saying that whatever other bullshit aside, as bad as Trump was the last two years, he's going to be worse now that he's a cornered animal. Saw some of that at his presser today.

Whittaker will move to block the Mueller investigation, but the House Judiciary can subpoena the report and everyone who contributed to it.

In the end, the truth will come out. Last night was worth it alone knowing that however little sleep Trump gets at night, it's going to be a lot less going forward.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Nonlinear FC » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:51 pm

Been watching the CNN docuseries on The Seventies the last couple of days. (It's pretty good, btw.)

The episode on Nixon. Wow. The parallels are so striking, it's like Trump is ticking off the major plot points.

* Bullshit, petty criminal act spurs cover up that goes way beyond, because Nixon wasn't really involved in ordering the break in. (Russia collusion is pretty difficult to pin on Trump, but all of his actions in the time after look really shitty.

* Constantly going after the credibility of the press, a lot of which in hindsight Nixon knowingly based on out right lies. (Obvious Trump comparison)

* And now we're getting into the phase where Nixon straight up started firing the investigators. The problem for Trump, is that where these two events veer off course dramatically is this: People often forget, Nixon won the 1972 election in a MASSIVE landslide (McGovern only won Mass). He was hugely popular at the time Watergate kicked into a higher gear.

Trump, obviously, is fucked on this front. He's not popular, and unlike Nixon, he has a House that would love nothing other than to start putting people in public hearings under oath with the full knowledge and weight of whatever Mueller has uncovered.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:01 pm

brian wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:43 pm
Saw some of that at his presser today.
See, I'd now call that presser staged. Be erratic and specifically attack the press knowing the press will respond which splits the cycle rather than having full focus on Sessions being fired and what it means for Mueller. Maybe I am or will be wrong, but hindsight looks like that to me.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by L-Jam3 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:51 pm
Been watching the CNN docuseries on The Seventies the last couple of days. (It's pretty good, btw.)

The episode on Nixon. Wow. The parallels are so striking, it's like Trump is ticking off the major plot points.

* Bullshit, petty criminal act spurs cover up that goes way beyond, because Nixon wasn't really involved in ordering the break in. (Russia collusion is pretty difficult to pin on Trump, but all of his actions in the time after look really shitty.

* Constantly going after the credibility of the press, a lot of which in hindsight Nixon knowingly based on out right lies. (Obvious Trump comparison)

* And now we're getting into the phase where Nixon straight up started firing the investigators. The problem for Trump, is that where these two events veer off course dramatically is this: People often forget, Nixon won the 1972 election in a MASSIVE landslide (McGovern only won Mass). He was hugely popular at the time Watergate kicked into a higher gear.

Trump, obviously, is fucked on this front. He's not popular, and unlike Nixon, he has a House that would love nothing other than to start putting people in public hearings under oath with the full knowledge and weight of whatever Mueller has uncovered.
That, and Nixon for all his faults was fucking massively intelligent, while Trump is as dumb as a pile of rocks. That's the other difference.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Shirley » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm

I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
Totally Kafkaesque

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by The Sybian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:30 pm

Shirley wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm
I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
Completely agree. Most states that have enacted drastic raises in the minimum wage are doing it in stages, for example, raising it $1.50 every year. An immediate jump to $15 nationally is going to have a strong backlash. Raising it to $10 over 3 or 4 years, will be much less burdensome.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Joe K » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:40 pm

Eh, if you work 40 hours per week for 50 weeks a year, then a $15/hour wage equates to $30K annually. That’s not a lot of money, even in Iowa.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Steve of phpBB » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:49 pm

Shirley wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm
I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
If the minimum wage is raised to $15 per hour here there are a lot of small local businesses that will close.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by tennbengal » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:06 pm

Sigh.


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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Pruitt » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:08 pm

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Joe K » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:21 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:49 pm
Shirley wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm
I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
If the minimum wage is raised to $15 per hour here there are a lot of small local businesses that will close.
What is this based on? Statements made about those businesses as part of lobbying efforts or an independent analysis of their books? Because frankly, as much as we tend to hold up smal businesses as paragons of virtue, if you truly cannot afford to pay your employees $15/hour then you’re probably not running your business very well to begin with.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:23 pm

In a related story, to make an omelette you have to break a few eggs.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Pruitt » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:32 pm

Joe K wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:21 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:49 pm
Shirley wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm
I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
If the minimum wage is raised to $15 per hour here there are a lot of small local businesses that will close.
What is this based on? Statements made about those businesses as part of lobbying efforts or an independent analysis of their books? Because frankly, as much as we tend to hold up smal businesses as paragons of virtue, if you truly cannot afford to pay your employees $15/hour then you’re probably not running your business very well to begin with.
There was a lot of outrage and dire warnings in Ontario when the minimum wage went from $11 to $14 and then $15 a year later.

Sky didn't fall.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Johnnie » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:57 pm

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:02 pm

I am (shockingly) all for raising the minimum wage, but that should really be done in tandem with rewriting (reinforcing?) business tax code. If Walmart can keep prices locked and small businesses have to increase, of course it’ll hurt. (But there’s also the faction alluded to above who believe owning a business should be a path into being “rich” and any profit lost is a tragedy.)
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by HaulCitgo » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:02 pm

I don't pay my staff $15/hr and would cut staff if so. This is not theoretical and I am not the only one. My inability/unwillingness to do so is not a matter of business acumen. It's a matter of who my customers are. Higher wages means higher prices and less access to legal services in underserved communities. Do think many of these matters can be resolved in the legislation but the idea that there are no negative consquences is lunacy.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by brian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:19 pm

I think any realistic plan to raise the minimum wage would have to be done in gradual steps. Even if you waved a magic wand and had supermajorities in the Senate and House tomorrow, it would look something like a dollar a year for seven years or something like that.

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Rams Fanny » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:23 pm

Joe K wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:21 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:49 pm
Shirley wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:24 pm
I'll admit I haven't studied the issue much, but is it really reasonable to jump the national minimum wage by over 100% ($7.25 to $15)? In a country as large as ours, there are drastically different costs of living and wage levels in different areas. While $15 isn't much to make or pay in NYC, it's a hell of a lot to pay a kid working at Burger King in rural Iowa. So, given that, it seems like it would make more sense to either have a lower federal minimum or to have some sort of floating federal minimum that is tied to some local economic index.
If the minimum wage is raised to $15 per hour here there are a lot of small local businesses that will close.
What is this based on? Statements made about those businesses as part of lobbying efforts or an independent analysis of their books? Because frankly, as much as we tend to hold up smal businesses as paragons of virtue, if you truly cannot afford to pay your employees $15/hour then you’re probably not running your business very well to begin with.
Many Mom/Pop food based establishments would close because the margin is not there. Even if you are a "generous" coffee shop paying your employees $10/hr, that 50% rise in payroll is a killer. If you keep your people you either have to reduce inventory, raise prices, or cut hours. All of which likely cause a drop in business. That's not poor management, just economic reality. The smaller businesses don't get big-box wholesale discounts so their margins go from slim to non-existent. Our daughter works at a local owned cookie shop/bakery for $8/hr and while they do a brisk business, they would close overnight if they had to double the pay of their employees. Chains can pass on their acquired costs to consumers to maintain their margins, small businesses cannot.
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by degenerasian » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:28 pm

yeah what Brian said. It would have to be incrementally like Canada has been doing. Pruitt gave you the Ontario numbers.

In Alberta:
prior to Oct 1, 2015: $10.20
Oct 1, 2016: $12
Oct 1, 2017: $13.60
Oct 1, 2018: $15
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Johnnie » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:59 pm

brian wrote:
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Yeah that’s a shitty take from the start. No disrespect to John Legend but she’s the best part of that couple.
Shortly after talking down to Acosta this was tweeted...

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:13 pm

I get the “mom and pop” argument but isn’t the flip side that some non-ownership mom or pop can currently work 1/3 of the hours of their life to bring home $21K?
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by mister d » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:16 pm

(This might be the area I come closest to in line with a trump policy, if indirectly and for different reasons. I don’t see the long term downside of massive taxing of foreign goods or labor unless you have a vested interest in large corporations.)
Rush2112 wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:46 pm
Dude got a handjob like thousands of old dudes do every day. Big whoop.

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Joe K
Walter Sobchak
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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Post by Joe K » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:42 pm

mister d wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:13 pm
I get the “mom and pop” argument but isn’t the flip side that some non-ownership mom or pop can currently work 1/3 of the hours of their life to bring home $21K?
While I favor an increased minimum wage, the economics aren’t simple and, as was pointed out up thread, are complicated by the pressure that behemoths like Walmart and Amazon place on other businesses. But from a strictly political standpoint, I think the Dems have been losing ground with voters they should win in part because they too often view economic issues from the perspective of the very small percentage of the electorate that are business owners, as opposed to the much, much larger part of the electorate that’s comprised of working people living paycheck to paycheck.

(Obviously the GOP isn’t helping these voters economically, but they do offer them plenty of red meat in the form of nationalism and cultural resentment.)

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