Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:33 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:30 pm Mueller investigation has been such a big hit, it's going on the road - expanded to include illegal influence from Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia?

According to that article, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel are the countries in question. This phase of the probe could be *very* interesting and will make many DC insiders sweat. IMO, the corrupting influence of the Gulf States and Israel on American politics dwarfs anything that Russia has been able to accomplish.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:39 pm

I am here for Israel's influence getting completely exposed. It's about time for the BDS movement to get some serious traction and real attention being paid to Israel as an apartheid state.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:49 pm

Not the best week for Trump.

Also today:

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:56 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:30 pm Mueller investigation has been such a big hit, it's going on the road - expanded to include illegal influence from Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia?

Well, holy shit. This is exactly what I meant about not knowing what will come of the Flynn side of things.

This is what it looks like when a wannabe mafia don and his grifter family show up in the WH.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:01 pm

The emoluments violations from the Trump DC hotel alone could be it's own investigation. There's reports of Saudis buying up an entire floor and not using any of the rooms.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:10 pm

The hits KEEP coming. This would be bad for America, but great for the sheer comedy of it.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:51 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:10 pm The hits KEEP coming. This would be bad for America, but great for the sheer comedy of it.

I thought he was working on peace in the Middle East. I guess that must be all taken care of now.

It would be worth it just to see the assclowns on FoxNews (looking at you, Hannity) try to spin this into a stroke of genius.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:11 pm

Dumb Dumb's big mouth may have just waived his attorney client privilege with Cohen. Trump claims he didn't direct Cohen to break the law, but that he "acted on advice of counsel." That defense requires disclosing the communications you had with your counsel. I don't know how someone could make the argument that his blabbering is invoking that defense, but it's fun to think he might actually be damaged by his words at some point in his life. It's so infuriating seeing him coast through his entire life without ever being held accountable for a damned thing.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:13 pm

In that vein, how much do you suppose he's spending on lawyers? This is a serious question. Are any of them working pro bono (for the publicity)? Because if not, he has to basically be ringing up about an average of $1,000 an hour every hour of the day. And that might be on the low side ($150K a week? That sounds about right.)

(Assuming he pays them of course, but I have to guess anyone desperate enough to work for him is getting the money up front.)

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:46 pm

According to Fear, Woodward's book, when he retained Dowd, it was $100k per month.

And that was half of that dude's cost as a lawyer.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:52 pm

$100K a month seems like a steal relative to all of the work he's generating.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:59 pm

Well, Dowd left in May. So I may be wrong to current amounts he's paying.

But to your point, definitely.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:14 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:10 pm The hits KEEP coming. This would be bad for America, but great for the sheer comedy of it.

Now there's a yes man!

He's running the country like Mugabe ran Zimbabwe (minus the thuggery). Said it before, I'll say it now - it is astounding that after three years of full on Trump, there's still something jaw dropping every week or so. Today alone, there's been a few.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:53 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:46 pm According to Fear, Woodward's book, when he retained Dowd, it was $100k per month.

And that was half of that dude's cost as a lawyer.

Dowd was one of several personal attorneys. I'm sure Dowd came with a team of attorneys, but there were several others. Mike Flynn's legal bills were over a million dollars, so Trump's must be astronomical.

I was watching a clip of Butina asking Trump a question at some event in 2015, and my son overheard. The one where Trump says something like, "Oh, Putin, big friend of Obama's. Nobody likes Obama, we have no friends anymore, but I'll get along great with Putin and we'll have friends again." My son says, "he made fun of Obama for being friends with Putin, then said Obama has no friends and he will be friends with Putin. Why would he say he would be friends with Putin when he just made fun of Obama for being friends with Putin?" I'd have an easier time if he asked me to explain how babies are made.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:16 am

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm

Entire floor at D.C. federal courthouse sealed off for mystery case

Speculation: Merry Fucking Indictmas, you orange sack of shit.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:44 pm

Zinke stepped down.

17 federal investigations didn't make it happen sooner, I guess.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:11 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm Entire floor at D.C. federal courthouse sealed off for mystery case

Speculation: Merry Fucking Indictmas, you orange sack of shit.

Lawyers: Does this seem right?

(Should we get our hopes up?)

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:41 pm

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:11 pm
Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm Entire floor at D.C. federal courthouse sealed off for mystery case

Speculation: Merry Fucking Indictmas, you orange sack of shit.
Lawyers: Does this seem right?

(Should we get our hopes up?)

Not betting on Trump getting indicted or impeached, but they sure as fuck are circling his business, his transition team, his inauguration committee, his campaign finance violations... Hell, the New Jersey AG just announced they are investigating complaints from 5 illegal immigrants who allege they were abusively treated while working at Bedminster. Think his base will care that he employs illegal immigrants? Of course they won't care, "he is a business man, all of them do it."

I don't think Mueller will indict Trump, but he will lay out a strong case for impeachment. Will the Senate vote for impeachment proceedings? I don't see it today, but Trump may cross the line for them at some point. I can't imagine what would do that, since he has already done 100 things that by themselves should have crossed the line, but those rat fuckers have no shame. I don't know if a US Attorney would indict Trump while he is in office. A lot of speculation that they will indict him under seal, so Statutes of Limitations won't run while he is in office, then unseal those indictments and make public charges when he is out of office. I am optimistic that the SDNY is going after Trump's business, which will take down his children. I'll enjoy the fuck out of that. I also think the inauguration investigation is going to show Trump sold influence to foreign governments and individuals, as he gave preferential treatment to Russia, Saudi Arabia and a couple other countries that donated to his inauguration, including the Saudi's renting out an entire floor of Trump hotel with nobody staying there. The GOP Senators seemed repulsed after being briefed on the Kashoggi murder, so maybe clear documentation that Trump accepted bribes from the Saudi's will cross the line. Who the fuck knows, this entire Presidency is so off the charts insane, there is no predicting anything.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:23 am

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:11 pm
Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm Entire floor at D.C. federal courthouse sealed off for mystery case

Speculation: Merry Fucking Indictmas, you orange sack of shit.
Lawyers: Does this seem right?

(Should we get our hopes up?)

I doubt the mystery grand jury subpoena was served on Trump or any of his family members. I haven’t been following that closely but I’ve seen speculation that the recipient is a media member, since attempts to compel a media member’s testimony or cooperation could raise significant First Amendment questions for the courts to address. I still think it’s very unlikely that Trump himself is indicted for anything, at least while in office, given the prior DOJ guidance (which, admittedly is not binding) against indicting a sitting President.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:13 am

Speculation I read somewhere is it had to do with Pence's legal team fighting hard against him being called in as a witness.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:25 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:23 am
Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:11 pm
Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm Entire floor at D.C. federal courthouse sealed off for mystery case

Speculation: Merry Fucking Indictmas, you orange sack of shit.
Lawyers: Does this seem right?

(Should we get our hopes up?)
I doubt the mystery grand jury subpoena was served on Trump or any of his family members. I haven’t been following that closely but I’ve seen speculation that the recipient is a media member, since attempts to compel a media member’s testimony or cooperation could raise significant First Amendment questions for the courts to address. I still think it’s very unlikely that Trump himself is indicted for anything, at least while in office, given the prior DOJ guidance (which, admittedly is not binding) against indicting a sitting President.

Media Member? Maybe someone who's already been shown to be on Cohen's client list?

Oh, please Baby Jeebus, let Sean Hannity get some time in the Legal Rinse Cycle....

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:45 pm

If Mueller wanted Hannity, I imagine Cohen has the goods (probably tax evasion) but that might be seen as outside of the purview of the special counsel and risk tainting the investigation as an actual right-wing witch hunt so sadly I assume Hannity skates.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:50 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:25 pm
Oh, please Baby Jeebus, let Sean Hannity get some time in the Legal Rinse Cycle....

Now that is an interesting thought. Imagine all the MAGA conspiracy theories that would come out of that? That'd be some interesting legal arguments about whether Hannity is a journalist and could claim journalists' rights to protect their sources. Fox has argued in court cases that there is a division between their daytime programming (hard news), and evening programming (opinion), to avoid liability for lying. Hannity clearly inserted himself into Trump's campaign by making appearances and donating use of his private jet to the campaign team (think he declared this as a campaign contribution?), so I don't see how he could claim to be a journalist.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:01 pm

It's difficult to say this without hyperbole... Trump REALLY fucked himself in that meeting with Pelosi and Schumer last week.

Folks, when you completely, unabashedly say you will be proud to shutdown the government, for whatever reason, you have painted yourself into the tiniest of corners. How is going to get out of this? No one wants his stupid fucking wall (I'm not talking about mouthbreathers, I'm talking about people that vote on things in Washington.)

I see folks asking what might make GOP senators start to turn on Trump... It's this type of unnecessary brinkmanship, asking them to back an incredibly unpopular wall project, that is the type of thing that will make them turn on Trump. Trump's going to shutdown the government, the House will just fund the govt after the new year and dare the GOP to keep important govt services shuttered to get Trump's wall. Good luck with the optics on that.

I haven't said it for awhile, because it's all kind of obvious after two years, but Trump's presidency just isn't sustainable. Historic losses in the mid-terms and now we're going to see a 2019 where no less than 5 major areas of investigation are going to dominate the headlines. And with Pelosi and the House coming at him daily.

For me, this has all been pretty inevitable. There was never a magic wand that would "finally bring him down." I mean, obviously the first 2 years, the GOP was never going to fall on that sword. But now, they can let Mueller and the House do the dirty work and start the process of backing off and probably put out feelers for someone to challenge Trump in the primary.

Most of these guys aren't dumb, they're just evil. They rode Trump as far as they could, and out of necessity at times. I just don't see a scenario where they continue to hitch their wagon to this guy and his incompetent, shitty entourage.

Sealed indictments and come January 2021, the Trump clan is going to be up to their eyeballs in charges.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:11 pm

Also, another tidbit I picked up scanning the news this morning.

Nixon had almost complete support from the GOP caucus in July of 74... By August, almost all had abandoned him to the point that they voted articles of impeachment out of Judiciary.

It can happen VERY fast. And, I mean, think about all of the stuff we know is out there. Nixon's cover up is almost a minor infraction compared to all this shit.

I know the big, massive difference from then to now is the Fox News/Bullshit Echo Chamber. But that's still not going to be enough. He will lose in epic proportions in 2020 and his family is going to be either in jail or beating back legal challenges for the next decade.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 pm

You're already starting to see the tiny pieces that could actually result in a conviction in the Senate. Lamar Alexander not running for re-election is one of them, Mitt Romney winning in Utah and not having to run again until 2024 is another.

Even Trump's base is tiring of him and all of the investigations and scandals. It could (strong emphasis on COULD) be politically expedient for the GOP to just "let the process happen". About 20 GOP Senators would have to vote to convict and it is difficult to see where those votes come from, but only about 7 or 8 or so of those votes are going to have to come from GOP senators up for election in 2020 where there could be repercussions like being primaried.

At this point, I think a win for Trump is still being in office to be able to attempt to run for re-election. He's absolutely going to get at least one person with a national profile (Kasich? Flake?) to primary him, which hasn't happened to a sitting president since George HW Bush. I don't think anyone will be able to wrestle the nomination from him, but again who knows where we'll be 12 months from now.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:25 pm

What kind of odds will you give me on "Donald, Don Jr., Eric and Ivanka will serve less than 2 years combined in prison"?

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:29 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:25 pm What kind of odds will you give me on "Donald, Don Jr., Eric and Ivanka will serve less than 2 years combined in prison"?

I'd say it's about a -150 favorite they don't. If you had specified federal prison I'd say -500 but Donny Jr. might have committed some state crimes as well it appears. And he's more involved in the family business/Trump Foundation "charity" and some of the state crimes that could result from that.

Even if you assume a completely earthshattering scenario where Trump is actually impeached and removed, Pence will pardon all his federal crimes and probably those of his kids as well. It's the state crimes that are going to be the wildcard as to which Trumps spend time in prison and for how long.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:37 pm

I will say exactly none days in jail for any of them.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:40 pm

Donald Trump will probably die before all of the legal wrangling is completed in his upcoming state trials after he leaves office (whenever that is). His kids probably won't have that luxury.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:42 pm

But since he asked. Days in prison:

Donald Trump - 0
Ivanka Trump - 0
Eric Trump - 90 days (state of NY, home arrest)
Donald Trump Jr. - 18 months (state of NY, minimum security?)

(Which begs another question. Does someone who gets Secret Service protection continue to get said protection in prison? How the hell does that work exactly?)

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:45 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 pm You're already starting to see the tiny pieces that could actually result in a conviction in the Senate. Lamar Alexander not running for re-election is one of them, Mitt Romney winning in Utah and not having to run again until 2024 is another.

Even Trump's base is tiring of him and all of the investigations and scandals. It could (strong emphasis on COULD) be politically expedient for the GOP to just "let the process happen". About 20 GOP Senators would have to vote to convict and it is difficult to see where those votes come from, but only about 7 or 8 or so of those votes are going to have to come from GOP senators up for election in 2020 where there could be repercussions like being primaried.

At this point, I think a win for Trump is still being in office to be able to attempt to run for re-election. He's absolutely going to get at least one person with a national profile (Kasich? Flake?) to primary him, which hasn't happened to a sitting president since George HW Bush. I don't think anyone will be able to wrestle the nomination from him, but again who knows where we'll be 12 months from now.

Kind of lost in the shuffle last week was the Senate voting to pull funding for the Saudi war in Yemen. That required something like 7 or 8 GOP senators to pass. That may be an outlier, but it also might be the first sign of things to come.

Again, Trump going ride or die on this wall thing is not good politics for him. The strategy of being a complete outsider and pointing to Washington establishment as being obstructionist only works with the heaviest of mouthbreathers out there. And asking GOP senators to fall on the sword over this issue is just really stupid.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:46 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:42 pm
(Which begs another question. Does someone who gets Secret Service protection continue to get said protection in prison? How the hell does that work exactly?)

Wow, what a fascinating question. Maybe they get protective custody (essentially solitary confinement). I doubt a conviction negates Secret Service protection, but I can't imagine a SS agent protecting an inmate. I'm sure they'd put them in one of them white collar prison camps.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:50 pm

Ehh... maybe I shouldn't have mentioned that. Carry on.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:50 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:42 pm But since he asked. Days in prison:

Donald Trump - 0
Ivanka Trump - 0
Eric Trump - 90 days (state of NY, home arrest)
Donald Trump Jr. - 18 months (state of NY, minimum security?)

(Which begs another question. Does someone who gets Secret Service protection continue to get said protection in prison? How the hell does that work exactly?)

I wonder if they would set up some kind of house arrest thing. I really don't see a scenario where a former president gets sent to prison (despite my blustering above.)

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:53 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:37 pm I will say exactly none days in jail for any of them.

Seconded. I also predict that Trump will not face a primary challenge of any significance. It was obvious that he was a corrupt moron during the 2016 campaign yet not a single prominent Republican endorsed Clinton.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:57 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:50 pm Redacted: Reasons

I floated the idea of Trump and his team orchestrating a version of Putin's Moscow bombings back in the summer of 2016. I'm no longer really worried about this because no one in the intel comm or military gives a shit about Trump enough to get involved in this kind of bullshit. Putin had complete control over agencies that could pull something like that off. The Trump clown car doesn't include anyone from that world (anymore, RIP Flynn.)

But I don't see any kind of scenario that gets Trump out other than impeachment.

Like I said before, it's actually not THAT insane to think the GOP in Washington will turn on Trump. As you are saying in your post, his usefulness is really starting to tip over into being a massive anchor around their collective necks.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:06 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:53 pm
Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:37 pm I will say exactly none days in jail for any of them.
Seconded. I also predict that Trump will not face a primary challenge of any significance. It was obvious that he was a corrupt moron during the 2016 campaign yet not a single prominent Republican endorsed Clinton.

I think you know, that's not how political calculations are made on this stage. They will not stay aligned with Trump if his poll numbers stay the same AND he is under massive legal pressure that makes his candidacy not viable.

I know I've been a broken record on this, but I just don't believe the entire party is going to just shrug, cross their fingers, and hope for the best in 2020. They just got their asses handed to them, in a historic way. And we don't even have the true goods from Mueller. So far, that investigation has not dissapointed and we're barely out of the gates.

.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:09 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:53 pm
Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:37 pm I will say exactly none days in jail for any of them.
Seconded. I also predict that Trump will not face a primary challenge of any significance. It was obvious that he was a corrupt moron during the 2016 campaign yet not a single prominent Republican endorsed Clinton.

He's absolutely going to get primaried, but the question is by whom and if their profile matches your definition of "prominent". It would have to be someone not afraid to POSSIBLY burn all future bridges with the GOP. So maybe Flake. Maybe Kasich.

I say possibly in all caps because there's the possibility - as strange as it might seem now -- that being among the first to break with Trump might be considered a positive in a re-ordered GOP a few years down the road. Someone might be thinking it's worth it to play 3D chess to get a start on the 2024 election against a possible Dem incumbent by challenging Trump in 2020.