The Swamp

The Sybian wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:03 am

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:38 am Ended up fixing the oven somehow. Not sure how permanent, but basically I opened the back up and tightened up every connection I could find to tighten up. took out the control board and reinstalled as well. Been fine for over a week now.

Also managed to fix an icemaker issue that was confounding for several months.

Then of course, get home yesterday and the fucking TV is out. I guess it's the LED lights or something, because you can BARELY make out the screen but adjusting the brightness doesn't do anything.

My last TV did that. It's fixable, but the part was almost as much as a new TV, and it gave me an excuse to get a bigger TV with a better picture, so fuck it.

Yeah, all the research on the web tells me to just get a new one.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:03 am

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:38 am Ended up fixing the oven somehow. Not sure how permanent, but basically I opened the back up and tightened up every connection I could find to tighten up. took out the control board and reinstalled as well. Been fine for over a week now.

Also managed to fix an icemaker issue that was confounding for several months.

Then of course, get home yesterday and the fucking TV is out. I guess it's the LED lights or something, because you can BARELY make out the screen but adjusting the brightness doesn't do anything.

My last TV did that. It's fixable, but the part was almost as much as a new TV, and it gave me an excuse to get a bigger TV with a better picture, so fuck it.

Yup, TVs have gotten cheap enough that they're rarely worth fixing unless you can DIY.

The belt on my dryer broke... Thanks to the daughter throwing in the equivalent of 4 heavy loads of laundry into one cycle.

Had to order the belt and a hex head screwdriver. Not all that confident I can actually swap out the belt. YouTube makes it look like I have to do some fiddling with things that you can't actually see.

did that repair a few years back.
follow the youtube directions... took me about an hour (went really slow)

Well, that was exhausting. Had a difficult (really really difficult) time wrestling with getting the belt through the drive shaft and the... pulley thingy.

But other than that... Not that bad with the YouTube video assist.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:02 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:24 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:10 am Time to start getting bids on taking a room out of the basement and adding a bar. I'm really hoping it'll all come in at under $15K, but I have no idea what this stuff costs

The cost of materials or the cost of labor or both? Is it a full remodel of the area or just adding something that exists? I'm curious.

both. basement is fully finished and bedroom and bathroom don't need to be touched. just need the weird room in the middle gone, the vent unboxed and then a bar installed somewhere near existing plumbing with a door moved. and then maybe the stairs modified slightly if there's money leftover

It's something that seems pretty straightforward, but I don't know just how much it'd be in terms of labor mostly. materials shouldn't be too bad (I'm thinking $3K total for the bar based on what we've seen at Ikea and price per sq ft of flooring and the limited drywalling that would need to be done)

I'd guess less than $15K but I'm not 100% sure of the scope here.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:32 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:02 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:24 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:10 am Time to start getting bids on taking a room out of the basement and adding a bar. I'm really hoping it'll all come in at under $15K, but I have no idea what this stuff costs

The cost of materials or the cost of labor or both? Is it a full remodel of the area or just adding something that exists? I'm curious.

both. basement is fully finished and bedroom and bathroom don't need to be touched. just need the weird room in the middle gone, the vent unboxed and then a bar installed somewhere near existing plumbing with a door moved. and then maybe the stairs modified slightly if there's money leftover

It's something that seems pretty straightforward, but I don't know just how much it'd be in terms of labor mostly. materials shouldn't be too bad (I'm thinking $3K total for the bar based on what we've seen at Ikea and price per sq ft of flooring and the limited drywalling that would need to be done)

I'd guess less than $15K but I'm not 100% sure of the scope here.

it's my guess too -- we're supposed to receive an estimate this week so hopefully it's like $10K worth of labor. he said when he was here last week that it'd be a one-week job without potential supply delays because of covid

We were quoted $20K-ish for a job that involves removing multiple walls and relocating a toilet and shower. I'm thinking your scope here is less, mainly due to not having to actually move plumbing items.

Switched out a Flush Valve on the upstairs toilet. That's the bathroom the "kids" use, so I wasn't aware that it had been running for quite some time. Over-tightened that puppy when I installed it, making it a bitch to get off.

Don't over-tighten, kids!

With the impending move to Korea and subsequent relocation to Tucson afterward, I'm prepping the house here in ABQ for sale. The market is so dry, houses are going for $$$ over asking and being snapped up in a day. I wanted to rent the place out and keep it, but inexplicably rent won't cover my current mortgage. So being able to sell and be done with it is serendipitous to say the least.

That being said, I had a pre-home inspection accomplished. A lot I could fix myself. And few things I absolutely won't touch (electrical) and a couple others I'm calling in a professional (plumber and handy man for drywall). So if I pay a few grand out of pocket, no biggie.

Getting rid of this place is bittersweet, but my tears will be soaked up by the eventual money going into a nice savings.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:39 pm With the impending move to Korea and subsequent relocation to Tucson afterward, I'm prepping the house here in ABQ for sale. The market is so dry, houses are going for $$$ over asking and being snapped up in a day. I wanted to rent the place out and keep it, but inexplicably rent won't cover my current mortgage. So being able to sell and be done with it is serendipitous to say the least.

That being said, I had a pre-home inspection accomplished. A lot I could fix myself. And few things I absolutely won't touch (electrical) and a couple others I'm calling in a professional (plumber and handy man for drywall). So if I pay a few grand out of pocket, no biggie.

Getting rid of this place is bittersweet, but my tears will be soaked up by the eventual money going into a nice savings.

I've heard the same thing here. I'm dubious because I don't know who the hell is buying homes during a pandemic, but we're toying with the idea of selling to cash out our gains and...I can't believe I'm saying this...moving back to Michigan for a couple of years before retirement. The idea would be to pay cash (more or less -- we'd probably still have to mortgage about $30-40K on a $200K house), pay the house off in two or three years, save additional money then pull the pin and retire to Thailand.

We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

ETA: There's other reasons other than financially, but my mom's not getting any younger and would be nice to be able to spend a couple years with her before moving 10,000 miles away. Same for my wife, though her mom is much younger.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pmI've heard the same thing here. I'm dubious because I don't know who the hell is buying homes during a pandemic, but we're toying with the idea of selling to cash out our gains and...I can't believe I'm saying this...moving back to Michigan for a couple of years before retirement. The idea would be to pay cash (more or less -- we'd probably still have to mortgage about $30-40K), pay the house off in two or three years, save additional money then pull the pin and retire to Thailand.

We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

My hope is that it's people who have been saving, see an opportunity with very, very low APRs, and have decided to pull the trigger. Kinda like the cash for clunkers thing with cars a while back.

My fear is that it's some nebulous conglomeration scooping up neighborhoods to rent up and turning homeownership into some foreign concept. I feel like I saw this on a Last Week Tonight episode.

My hunch is that in a couple years time there will be a housing downturn. But we'll see.

Market here is insane but it’s a little more logical given proximity to NYC and the fact that everyone who had a 3 year city exit plan is opting in right now. We heard of one place get 20+ offers over asking about a month ago.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:54 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pmI've heard the same thing here. I'm dubious because I don't know who the hell is buying homes during a pandemic, but we're toying with the idea of selling to cash out our gains and...I can't believe I'm saying this...moving back to Michigan for a couple of years before retirement. The idea would be to pay cash (more or less -- we'd probably still have to mortgage about $30-40K), pay the house off in two or three years, save additional money then pull the pin and retire to Thailand.

We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

My hope is that it's people who have been saving, see an opportunity with very, very low APRs, and have decided to pull the trigger. Kinda like the cash for clunkers thing with cars a while back.

My fear is that it's some nebulous conglomeration scooping up neighborhoods to rent up and turning homeownership into some foreign concept. I feel like I saw this on a Last Week Tonight episode.

My hunch is that in a couple years time there will be a housing downturn. But we'll see.

I agree. That's another reason we're looking to sell high here. Even if the market dipped, we'd have a lot less relative equity in the house in Michigan (about 50 percent less). Might just look into renting for a couple of years instead as well, but obviously any move we do or don't make is predicated on being able to sell this place for what it is supposedly worth.

My hope is that one of the huge shifts we'll see in response with COVID will be a vast expansion of remote employees. That will work in Las Vegas' favor because of the lack of income tax and the relatively affordable housing here (compared to elsewhere on the west coast).

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:59 pm Market here is insane but it’s a little more logical given proximity to NYC and the fact that everyone who had a 3 year city exit plan is opting in right now. We heard of one place get 20+ offers over asking about a month ago.

Yeah, market hasn't slowed at all here. Most reasonably priced houses seem to be going under contract within a week. I thought it would slow, but I think it's going to get even hotter as people fear a second wave in the Fall, and people are still desperate to get out of NYC, Jersey City, Hoboken... With so many people working from home for the near future and a lot of businesses looking to continue remote work after COVID, a bigger house with office space outside the City is more tempting.

this is happening in Buffalo/Western New York too* - just read a piece last week with almost the exact same stats; open houses are flooded with people literally bringing cash offers for up to 20K over asking. it's apparently really tough for first-time homeowners. i mean i'm as good as broke but thankful we somehow got our house here 2 years ago, we'd never get a bid in now.

*must be the draw of the Blue Jays

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:59 pm Market here is insane but it’s a little more logical given proximity to NYC and the fact that everyone who had a 3 year city exit plan is opting in right now. We heard of one place get 20+ offers over asking about a month ago.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

I hope it works out the way you want, but a Vegas without brian would be very weird considering I've hung out with you the majority of times I've been there. Good luck!

It's too bad neither of you live in western Colorado. We're looking at leasing our house here (it's still a hot market too somehow) and renting an apartment/small house somewhere like Glenwood Springs.

I'm not shitting on you guys... We saw the exact same thing when we almost put our house up back in March... But it shows you who is (and isn't) being impacted by COVID that the real estate market is staying so hot.

I understand why the NYC suburbs are a hot market, but I'm surprised places like Buffalo, Arizona and Vegas are just as hot. Is it just that the usual number of people needed to move, and fewer houses came on the market in March and April, which is typically when most people are looking to buy, and the market got backed up so buyers are desperate? Are people now looking for bigger homes for a home office? I would think a place like AZ, where COVID is spiking, wouldn't be a place people are looking to buy right now. I'm sure historically low interest rates are a factor, but they were insanely low for the past several years, so I wouldn't think the extra half-percent makes that big a difference.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:39 pm With the impending move to Korea and subsequent relocation to Tucson afterward, I'm prepping the house here in ABQ for sale. The market is so dry, houses are going for $$$ over asking and being snapped up in a day. I wanted to rent the place out and keep it, but inexplicably rent won't cover my current mortgage. So being able to sell and be done with it is serendipitous to say the least.

That being said, I had a pre-home inspection accomplished. A lot I could fix myself. And few things I absolutely won't touch (electrical) and a couple others I'm calling in a professional (plumber and handy man for drywall). So if I pay a few grand out of pocket, no biggie.

Getting rid of this place is bittersweet, but my tears will be soaked up by the eventual money going into a nice savings.

I've heard the same thing here. I'm dubious because I don't know who the hell is buying homes during a pandemic, but we're toying with the idea of selling to cash out our gains and...I can't believe I'm saying this...moving back to Michigan for a couple of years before retirement. The idea would be to pay cash (more or less -- we'd probably still have to mortgage about $30-40K on a $200K house), pay the house off in two or three years, save additional money then pull the pin and retire to Thailand.

We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

ETA: There's other reasons other than financially, but my mom's not getting any younger and would be nice to be able to spend a couple years with her before moving 10,000 miles away. Same for my wife, though her mom is much younger.

Hey you being back in the Midwest would be kinda cool tho :)

Also to report here, real estate also rocket hot. Zero inventory. Most homes selling over asking within 24 hours.

The real issue is that changes were never made to the industry. Lots of window dressing but the fact of the matter is a lot of people are buying homes they can't really afford.

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:57 am I'm not shitting on you guys... We saw the exact same thing when we almost put our house up back in March... But it shows you who is (and isn't) being impacted by COVID that the real estate market is staying so hot.

Oh yeah. People with money in the cities are moving out to the suburbs where people with either less money or less security are thinking "lets leave the suburbs to a cheaper life" and its all pushing outward. I'd be lying if I said we didn't atleast discuss but this was supposed to be our stability move versus our every-four-year-at-minimum move.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:15 am

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:57 am I'm not shitting on you guys... We saw the exact same thing when we almost put our house up back in March... But it shows you who is (and isn't) being impacted by COVID that the real estate market is staying so hot.

Oh yeah. People with money in the cities are moving out to the suburbs where people with either less money or less security are thinking "lets leave the suburbs to a cheaper life" and its all pushing outward. I'd be lying if I said we didn't atleast discuss but this was supposed to be our stability move versus our every-four-year-at-minimum move.

Just wait another year, and prices in the cities will plummet. You'll be able to get a 1000 sq ft apartment in Manhattan for under $3 million!

Yeah, with the explosion of remote work, I think there will be a massive demographic shift out of cities and toward places that are just nice to live, local economy be damned. My company told us we could move anywhere we want. There's no need to be near an office. So live somewhere that makes you happy. It really doesn't matter if the local town doesn't have high-paying jobs if you're making CA wages. My wife and I are thinking about selling our house here in Cary (Raleigh suburb) and getting a place in a ski town out west. Then, we'll just split the year between there and our beach condo. She would retire (she's a professor, so can't really work remote), but I could keep doing what I'm doing from anywhere.

Honestly, they may want to just scrap this census and do it again in a year or two. It's already going to be very wrong about where people actually live.

Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:24 am Yeah, with the explosion of remote work, I think there will be a massive demographic shift out of cities and toward places that are just nice to live, local economy be damned. My company told us we could move anywhere we want. There's no need to be near an office. So live somewhere that makes you happy. It really doesn't matter if the local town doesn't have high-paying jobs if you're making CA wages. My wife and I are thinking about selling our house here in Cary (Raleigh suburb) and getting a place in a ski town out west. Then, we'll just split the year between there and our beach condo. She would retire (she's a professor, so can't really work remote), but I could keep doing what I'm doing from anywhere.

Honestly, they may want to just scrap this census and do it again in a year or two. It's already going to be very wrong about where people actually live.

That's exactly why we're considering it. My wife's job went from 0% WFH to permanent. We're just waiting to hear word that she can move anywhere (or at the very least, Colorado is a state she can move to). The earliest, as of now, that my company will be back at the office is 1/11, but nearly 1/2 of my company works remote anyway and they expect more to do so despite proximity to the office.

BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:14 am Also to report here, real estate also rocket hot. Zero inventory. Most homes selling over asking within 24 hours.

The real issue is that changes were never made to the industry. Lots of window dressing but the fact of the matter is a lot of people are buying homes they can't really afford.

Dsafe's rolling stone article put it well... "Fluidity of memory and a capacity to forget is perhaps the most haunting trait of our species."

So do we think this will be truly permanent? Like in-office will just fade away for white collar jobs, or do we think this is long-term temporary?

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:52 am So do we think this will be truly permanent? Like in-office will just fade away for white collar jobs, or do we think this is long-term temporary?

This trend was already growing in tech (primarily software companies). My company was probably over 50% remote already. This just accelerated it. And now many other industries are realizing that the tools exist to make this work, employees are getting used to it, clients are less likely to require travel to their sites, and the savings on office space can be massive.

Obviously, a lot of jobs require physical presence, but desk jobs can mostly be made remote. So, folks don't need to pay high prices for tiny city housing. They want something cheaper and nicer with plenty of room for a home office. I bet you'll see more new home construction building dedicated offices (or two).

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:52 am So do we think this will be truly permanent? Like in-office will just fade away for white collar jobs, or do we think this is long-term temporary?

I think permanent. I don't think companies will truly get away from having offices, but as long as worker productivity is comparable, it's hard to convince a company that they need to pay the overhead of office space for 100 people when they can do it for 30 people (random numbers). Renting office space, utilities, parking, office supplies, and on and on are expenses that can get trimmed.

I think people's comfort with Zoom calls are going to make work-related travel drop, as well. In five months, video conference calling has become much more familiar, even for friendly events, that most companies will see travel as a place to trim budgets.

People save money on expenses like transportation (and the time associated with it) and food (groceries instead of eating out/going on coffee breaks) and can get tax write-offs like using portions of their homes for designated work space, cell phone and internet bills, etc. (or at least could before recent changes).

It seems like there are significant positives for both sides.

Had this discussion with my MBA team. I think the commercial real estate market is going to be really bad. My office could easily send 10-15 people home to work immediately with basically no change (myself included). We are spread out across two of the three floors in a building we own, and between me and the breakroom there are five open offices and 8 cubicle spaces, with one area that could also probably accomodate another couple of cubicles if needed. I think if they went looking and could find someone who needed space, they would jump at it from a reduced cost and additional revenue stream standpoint.

This was going to happen anyway -- the pandemic is just going to accelerate it.

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:25 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

I hope it works out the way you want, but a Vegas without brian would be very weird considering I've hung out with you the majority of times I've been there. Good luck!

It's too bad neither of you live in western Colorado. We're looking at leasing our house here (it's still a hot market too somehow) and renting an apartment/small house somewhere like Glenwood Springs.

I love Glenwood Springs. Did you see about the big fire in Glenwood canyon over the weekend?

My best friend is moving back to Grand Junction, so I’ll be out there sometime, if this pandemic ever ends.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:07 pm This was going to happen anyway -- the pandemic is just going to accelerate it.

This was closer to what I was wondering. I've been home for over a decade, the first in my company but tons have joined since. I guess I was curious if it would curve back up next March or not.

I mean, it's just going to be really hard to convince people 12-18 months from now after there's a combination of vaccine/herd immunity and what have you (hopefully) that they have to go back to commuting into an office every day after you've worked effectively at home for almost two years.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:08 pm I love Glenwood Springs. Did you see about the big fire in Glenwood canyon over the weekend?

I think it's either still going or there's another one that made a pretty wicked sunset last night.

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:25 am
It's too bad neither of you live in western Colorado. We're looking at leasing our house here (it's still a hot market too somehow) and renting an apartment/small house somewhere like Glenwood Springs.

Hopefully it's still there, big big ass fire just east in the canyon. I-70 has been closed for like a week. We're starting to smell/see the smoke here.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:08 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:25 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm We're gonna meet with a Realtor next week and depending on how quickly things move and if we decide to pull the trigger, we might be in Michigan as soon as this winter.

I hope it works out the way you want, but a Vegas without brian would be very weird considering I've hung out with you the majority of times I've been there. Good luck!

It's too bad neither of you live in western Colorado. We're looking at leasing our house here (it's still a hot market too somehow) and renting an apartment/small house somewhere like Glenwood Springs.

I love Glenwood Springs. Did you see about the big fire in Glenwood canyon over the weekend?

My best friend is moving back to Grand Junction, so I’ll be out there sometime, if this pandemic ever ends.

I didn't. I did see the beginnings of a big fire when we went to Grand Junction last week. My daughter LOVED Colorado National Monument park and kept asking if we could move by next summer. We did enjoy walking around the town in 99 degrees without breaking a sweat.

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:36 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:25 am
It's too bad neither of you live in western Colorado. We're looking at leasing our house here (it's still a hot market too somehow) and renting an apartment/small house somewhere like Glenwood Springs.

Hopefully it's still there, big big ass fire just east in the canyon. I-70 has been closed for like a week. We're starting to smell/see the smoke here.

Yeah, had to close the windows here this morning since we were staying to smell it.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:18 pm I mean, it's just going to be really hard to convince people 12-18 months from now after there's a combination of vaccine/herd immunity and what have you (hopefully) that they have to go back to commuting into an office every day after you've worked effectively at home for almost two years.

One area where this week not hold true, and for obvious reasons, is miliary bases. There's quite a significant amount of teleworking right now, but the second there's even a hint of a moment where something might be under control we'll go back to waiting in long lines at the gate to get on base.

And since this crazy housing market isn't specific to one region, maybe it is a bunch of people and not a nebulous corporation. That would be heartening.