2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by degenerasian » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:56 am

Spinning off of the Trump Disaster thread. The race is on for 2020.

538 had a draft for Democratic Nominees

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/po ... raft-live/ (2nd half of show)
[+] spoiler
1. Elizabeth Warren
2. Joe Biden
3. Kamala Harris
4. Amy Klobuchar
5. Beto O'Rourke
6. Kirsten Gillibrand
7. Cory Booker
8. Bernie Sanders
9. Andrew Gillum
10. John Hickenlooper
11. Michael Bloomberg
12. Pete Buttigieg
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Sabo » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:12 am

I doubt he'll run, but Sherrod Brown's wife, former Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Connie Schultz, wrote on Twitter a couple of days ago that they are talking about him running for the presidency.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:28 am

Gillibrand is too low on that list. She has very savvy political instincts and has a better handle on where the Democratic Party’s voters are headed than Biden or Harris does. Had Beto managed to win his Senate race, I’d give him a great shot, but how many nominees are people who lost their last race?

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:35 am

Joe K wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:28 am
Gillibrand is too low on that list. She has very savvy political instincts and has a better handle on where the Democratic Party’s voters are headed than Biden or Harris does. Had Beto managed to win his Senate race, I’d give him a great shot, but how many nominees are people who lost their last race?
On the other hand, he built up a huge national brand and now that he's not in the Senate he's free to spend as much time as he wants in Iowa and New Hampshire for the next 12 months.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:36 am

Nearly defeating an incumbent in Texas should be far more impressive than winning in NY.

There's something about Gillibrand that just doesn't work for me in the same way as Booker, but with far less exposure to her. I could change my mind there whereas I know I don't want Booker. Also, and this is admittedly bullshit, but I can't imagine her in 2020 simply because it would be following a female former NY senator with her female NY senate replacement. Seems like an easy target that would probably play well nationally.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by tennbengal » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:58 am

I'd be happy to vote for Beto right now off of what he almost got done in Texas.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by duff » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:18 pm

Mayor Pete? Guess they needed to list him for LGBTQ inclusion policies. He is not ready for the national stage.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Pruitt » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:36 pm

Biden will be 77 on election day in 2020 and will turn 78 a few weeks later.

Reagan was 77 when he left office.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:40 pm

Prediction: The Dem nominee I'll end up supporting will be someone I've either never mentioned for that role or never even heard of as of today.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Ryan » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:41 pm

Life expectancy for a guy born in 1911 - 51
Life expectancy for a guy born in 1942 - 65
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:43 pm

Life expectancy of a rich white dude born in 1942 - 107
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Ryan » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:45 pm

Life expectancy of a guy from Delaware who likes trains - 14
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:08 pm

Ryan wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:41 pm
Life expectancy for a guy born in 1911 - 51
Life expectancy for a guy born in 1942 - 65
Sure, but of course that stat takes into account kids who were dying of polio or whatever.

What was the life expectancy of a 69-year-old rich white man in 1981, versus a 78-year-old rich white man in 2021?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:26 pm

tennbengal wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:58 am
I'd be happy to vote for Beto right now off of what he almost got done in Texas.
That's where I'm at, too. He's not dinged up by being a Washington guy, but he's got six years in the trenches and really exposes how shitty it is to constantly be chasing money up there. Especially on the House side, it's all consuming and it's why we'll never get shit straight until we get rid of PAC money's influence.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:35 pm

Whatever you think of Beto (and I love him) he's not gonna be able to run a presidential campaign without SuperPAC money if he wins the primary.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:45 pm

Joe K wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:28 am
Gillibrand is too low on that list. She has very savvy political instincts and has a better handle on where the Democratic Party’s voters are headed than Biden or Harris does. Had Beto managed to win his Senate race, I’d give him a great shot, but how many nominees are people who lost their last race?
Abe Lincoln did it. So, we'll see.


Also, Eric Swalwell and Richard Ojeda have decided to run for president.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Yes, Abe Lincoln, the legendary REPUBLICAN!!!
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Pruitt » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:56 pm

I wasn't aware of that.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:35 pm

mister d wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:47 pm
Yes, Abe Lincoln, the legendary REPUBLICAN!!!
Damn right.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:35 am

brian wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:35 pm
Whatever you think of Beto (and I love him) he's not gonna be able to run a presidential campaign without SuperPAC money if he wins the primary.
I think there are plausible ways for that money to be used, but not go into his campaign directly.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 am

You guys are nuts if you think creepy joe wouldn’t be subjected to levels of harassment claims Kavanaugh couldn’t even imagine. He is not the answer. If he was the answer it should have been in 2016.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:46 am

A_B wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 am
You guys are nuts if you think creepy joe wouldn’t be subjected to levels of harassment claims Kavanaugh couldn’t even imagine. He is not the answer. If he was the answer it should have been in 2016.
Biden’s also just not very good on policy. He’s benefiting a ton from the association with Obama when he was an Iraq War supporter, a constant ally of the credit card industry and genuinely bad in his treatment of Anita Hill in the Thomas confirmation.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Rush2112 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:09 pm

A_B wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 am
You guys are nuts if you think creepy joe wouldn’t be subjected to levels of harassment claims Kavanaugh couldn’t even imagine. He is not the answer. If he was the answer it should have been in 2016.
The only reason he would have been the answer was due to him not being named Hilary Clinton. I love me some Bernie, but I'm not sure he would have gotten the play that he did if it was the typical after 8 years election process.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:53 pm

Yeah, the banking stuff was necessary/good when his concern was just DE but you don’t want a national protector.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:37 pm

I had a dream last night that the ticket was O'Rourke/Harris and it just absolutely steamrolled.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:43 pm

Speaking of which, in a crowded field like it was for the Republicans in 2016 and like it will be for the Democrats in 2020 I wonder why there isn't more of a consideration to announce as a ticket at the start of the primary process?

It would require a lot of trust, but it seems like it could be a way to cut through the noise. Imagine if with your primary vote for Beto you knew you were going to get Kamala Harris on the ticket (or Stacey Abrams or someone else that might be a longshot to get the nomination themselves) but whom would bring a lot of support and excitement and fundraising mojo).
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:45 pm

I'm sure this was a Harris staffer being clever versus Harris herself, but its the kind of thing that'll piss people off: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 375218.php
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:47 pm

Joe K wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:46 am
A_B wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 am
You guys are nuts if you think creepy joe wouldn’t be subjected to levels of harassment claims Kavanaugh couldn’t even imagine. He is not the answer. If he was the answer it should have been in 2016.
Biden’s also just not very good on policy. He’s benefiting a ton from the association with Obama when he was an Iraq War supporter, a constant ally of the credit card industry and genuinely bad in his treatment of Anita Hill in the Thomas confirmation.

All of that is disqualifying, but with what is going on with women right now, the last one is the most... disqualifying.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:26 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:47 pm
Joe K wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:46 am
A_B wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 am
You guys are nuts if you think creepy joe wouldn’t be subjected to levels of harassment claims Kavanaugh couldn’t even imagine. He is not the answer. If he was the answer it should have been in 2016.
Biden’s also just not very good on policy. He’s benefiting a ton from the association with Obama when he was an Iraq War supporter, a constant ally of the credit card industry and genuinely bad in his treatment of Anita Hill in the Thomas confirmation.

All of that is disqualifying, but with what is going on with women right now, the last one is the most... disqualifying.
That's the frustrating thing, Dems (rightly) won't tolerate a sexual creep, but the Family Values Bible Thumpers in the GOP are willing to give everything a pass if a candidate can beat a Dem.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:52 pm

Biden isn't that good. I like his persona, but I'm a 50+ year old white guy.

There are so many better options.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:55 pm

I'll be a broken record about it for 20 to 22 more months, but I don't see any way the Democrats lose in 2020 if they nominate Beto. I mean, other than him being some kind of a secret grifter or super sex creep or something, but presumably that stuff would have come out in the TX Senate election.

There's a fair argument to be made that many other top Dems would be better presidents or more progressive, but I don't think anyone else is more electable.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:02 pm

brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:55 pm
I'll be a broken record about it for 20 to 22 more months, but I don't see any way the Democrats lose in 2020 if they nominate Beto. I mean, other than him being some kind of a secret grifter or super sex creep or something, but presumably that stuff would have come out in the TX Senate election.

There's a fair argument to be made that many other top Dems would be better presidents or more progressive, but I don't think anyone else is more electable.
I dunno. No relevant experience whatsoever? I mean, I guess it worked for Obama, but still.

I have no idea how Kamala Harris is on a stage, but she's killer when she's examining witnesses in the Judiciary Committee.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:07 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:02 pm
brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:55 pm
I'll be a broken record about it for 20 to 22 more months, but I don't see any way the Democrats lose in 2020 if they nominate Beto. I mean, other than him being some kind of a secret grifter or super sex creep or something, but presumably that stuff would have come out in the TX Senate election.

There's a fair argument to be made that many other top Dems would be better presidents or more progressive, but I don't think anyone else is more electable.
I dunno. No relevant experience whatsoever? I mean, I guess it worked for Obama, but still.

I have no idea how Kamala Harris is on a stage, but she's killer when she's examining witnesses in the Judiciary Committee.
She would be a better president, but honestly not sure if this country is ready for a black, female president. I wish it were.

ETA: But as a vice presidential candidate? She would crush it.

ETAA: Beto was a three-term Congressman so I wouldn't exactly say he has no relevant experience.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:13 pm

Biden still has the greatest single picture ever taken ...

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:52 pm

Long Politico article on implications if Beto runs.

ETA: It's appalling in a way that this article is most focused on the fundraising implications (notably that Beto would suck up a lot of the money from big-money donors), but that's post-Citizen United America. Just another reason why 2020 is a must-win and Beto's coattails could mean taking back the Senate as well.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K » Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:12 pm

brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:07 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:02 pm
brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:55 pm
I'll be a broken record about it for 20 to 22 more months, but I don't see any way the Democrats lose in 2020 if they nominate Beto. I mean, other than him being some kind of a secret grifter or super sex creep or something, but presumably that stuff would have come out in the TX Senate election.

There's a fair argument to be made that many other top Dems would be better presidents or more progressive, but I don't think anyone else is more electable.
I dunno. No relevant experience whatsoever? I mean, I guess it worked for Obama, but still.

I have no idea how Kamala Harris is on a stage, but she's killer when she's examining witnesses in the Judiciary Committee.
She would be a better president, but honestly not sure if this country is ready for a black, female president. I wish it were.

ETA: But as a vice presidential candidate? She would crush it.

ETAA: Beto was a three-term Congressman so I wouldn't exactly say he has no relevant experience.
The sexism questions with Harris as the nominee would also be complicated by her past relationship with Willie Brown. That hasn’t really been an issue for her in California races, not should it have been, but you know damn well that Trump would key in on it if she were his opponent.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:53 pm

brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:37 pm
I had a dream last night that the ticket was O'Rourke/Harris and it just absolutely steamrolled.
Yes, please.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:42 am

Johnnie wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:53 pm
brian wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:37 pm
I had a dream last night that the ticket was O'Rourke/Harris and it just absolutely steamrolled.
Yes, please.
Yeah, I'd be almost as enthusiastic about that as I was for Obama/Biden. And given the relative stakes, probably more.

(This is on a scale where Obama was by far the candidate I felt most enthusiastic to support and proud to have backed in a national race. BClinton, as we all know, could capture your heart, but the baggage, SO MUCH baggage. HClinton has always bothered me.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:21 pm

I didn't realize Harris has only been in the Senate since 2017. She needs more experience too, like Beto.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:42 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:21 pm
I didn't realize Harris has only been in the Senate since 2017. She needs more experience too, like Beto.
More experience = more baggage and more votes in the Senate to hang you with. There's a definite trend to embrace candidates without a long legislative history (for good or ill) because frankly that's what the voters appear to want. Witness how Jacky Rosen was able to take down Dean Heller in Nevada. Heller was crucified for his ACA flip-flops and Rosen had only been in the House for two years so there was nothing to tar her with other than comparisons to Nancy Pelosi because they're both women.

Like it or not, best bet for the Dems will be younger candidates without 30 years of floor votes.
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