2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:33 am

Its merely a "nice to have".

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:38 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:37 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:00 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:21 pm Lets say Biden comes out against M4A, should that not cost him support?
In a general election? No.

I think there's three ways to look at that.

1. Instrumentally, unless you think Joe Manchin and every Dem to the left of him is going to support M4A, it doesn't really matter whether the President does.
Why is it that conservative Dems like Manchin are viewed as immovable objects who will block any progressive legislation, while GOP leadership can almost always get its supposedly moderate members to fall in line? To use a recent example, Manchin can vote to confirm Kavanaugh and still keep his preferred Committee seats when it’s hard to fathom the converse happening with a GOP Senator. If I didn’t know any better, I’d think that Democratic leadership is happy being a socially liberal party for the rich and doesn’t actually care to exert any pressure on folks like Manchin to try and change that.

I'm not sure if we need to know why; it just happens to come out that way.

But since we're all speculating about all of this anyway, I think red-state Dem Senators are more likely to buck the party because (i) they really believe that highly progressive legislation is bad, (ii) they are representing their constitutuents, who also tend to believe that highly progressive legislation is bad, (iii) the know that their chances of holding their seats are increased by bucking the party, mostly because they are immune from primary (because they are in red states), and (iv) the supposedly moderate Republican senators are not moderate, and (v) the supposedly moderate Republican senators who are in red states are more susceptible to a primary challenge than a general election loss.

(I think Dems tolerate Manchin because they are sophisticated to know that it's better to have a Dem from WV who votes with them 70% of the time than an R from WV who votes with them 0% of the time. Also, the new reality of constant pitched battle has not caught up to the Dem Senate leadership yet.)

Susan Collins seems to me to be the closest Republican analogy to Manchin. And she probably knows she is going to lose in 2020 and is keeping the Rs happy so she can get that big payday afterwards.

Are there any other Republican senators from solidly blue states? I guess that guy from Colorado, but I'm still hesitant to call Colorado solidly blue (and if it is, he will lose in 2020).

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:22 pm

Would you, could you, get behind this guy?

A non-politician to counter Trump?. Running on a progressive platform centered around UBI ($1000 a month) but has actual entrepreneurial success meaning he can’t be branded a socialist. Calling his UBI plan the ‘Freedom Dividend’ and framing it in capitalist terms is ingenious.

He needs more donations to get on the debate stage.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:47 pm

I like how this dude speaks. He seems to get it.

Post by **brian** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:45 pm

Underestimate Kamala Harris at your own risk. This is insanely smart in a state that is a union Democratic stronghold where 20 percent of union members speak little to no English.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:17 pm

Her prosecutor past is going to haunt her. She's made a few major shifts lately, but from what I've read she went overboard.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:53 pm

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:17 pm Her prosecutor past is going to haunt her. She's made a few major shifts lately, but from what I've read she went overboard.

I’m not sure Harris’ past as a not-so progressive prosecutor will hurt her that much. Even among Democratic primary voters I don’t think there’s a huge constituency that prioritizes criminal justice reform. However, I’ve noticed that she’s hired some of Clinton’s top advisors and at times seems to slip into the same trap of pushing platitudes instead of policy.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:03 pm

Sherrod Brown is not running.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:22 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:47 pm I like how this dude speaks. He seems to get it.

He's not really a viable national candidate, but there's just so much I like about this guy.

Post by **brian** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:30 pm

He should run for the Senate in Indiana even as unlikely as it is they'll elect a Dem.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:12 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:30 pm He should run for the Senate in Indiana even as unlikely as it is they'll elect a Dem.

Fascinating that an openly Gay man was elected Mayor in what I imagine is not a very cosmopolitan town.

duff · Post by **duff** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:36 am

Pruitt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:12 pm
brian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:30 pm He should run for the Senate in Indiana even as unlikely as it is they'll elect a Dem.
Fascinating that an openly Gay man was elected Mayor in what I imagine is not a very cosmopolitan town.

South Bend had always been a Democrat stronghold in the state. Pretty sure he came out after the election. But his approval rating is through the roof.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:17 am

duff wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:36 am
Pruitt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:12 pm
brian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:30 pm He should run for the Senate in Indiana even as unlikely as it is they'll elect a Dem.
Fascinating that an openly Gay man was elected Mayor in what I imagine is not a very cosmopolitan town.
South Bend had always been a Democrat stronghold in the state. Pretty sure he came out after the election. But his approval rating is through the roof.

Would love to see him meeting Mike Pence.

duff · Post by **duff** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:00 am

Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:17 am
duff wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:36 am
Pruitt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:12 pm
brian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:30 pm He should run for the Senate in Indiana even as unlikely as it is they'll elect a Dem.
Fascinating that an openly Gay man was elected Mayor in what I imagine is not a very cosmopolitan town.
South Bend had always been a Democrat stronghold in the state. Pretty sure he came out after the election. But his approval rating is through the roof.
Would love to see him meeting Mike Pence.

Pretty sure they have met. When I met Pence, he had a handshake of a dead fish. Such slime.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:15 am

duff wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:00 amWhen I met Pence, he had a hand... of ... d... slime.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:52 am

duff wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:00 am
Pretty Pence, he ... hands...o...me.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:53 am

I really like this guy.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:53 am I really like this guy.

I do too. I hope he finds some place on influence within Indiana because I highly doubt his viability as a national candidate. Though If we're talking about the pendulum swinging farther, it would be an interesting thing to see. First black president. Oh yea? well we didn't like that so how about an open racist "outsider" president? Can get much further than that! Well how about this gay 37 year old guy?

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:28 pm

Can’t we find a good person who is super-qualified to be president but doesn’t want to run for president to somehow run for president?

Or at least someone whose dog doesn’t appear to be embarrassed by him?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:33 pm

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:02 pm

I don’t doubt that gender is part of it. But the desire to minimize Warren’s chances is also driven by the fact that she’s long been a thorn in the side of Wall Street and entrenched economic interests. Beto hasn’t — and probably never will be — and hence he’ll get pushed as a frontrunner despite his far more modest accomplishments.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:24 pm

Announcement coming tomorrow.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:40 pm

You could've just asked me to post, Rush.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:41 pm

and why he shouldn't run

Slate

Jacobin

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:46 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:40 pm You could've just asked me to post, Rush.

I thought active duty personnel couldn't get involved politically.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:05 am

I'm talking about my avatar. It's literally that picture and has been since after Beto lost.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:10 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:05 am I'm talking about my avatar. It's literally that picture and has been since after Beto lost.

I know. I was going to post a link, but came in and saw your post up thread and thought it made a better announcement.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:04 am

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:41 pm and why he shouldn't run

Slate

Jacobin

what's wrong with these guys?

Post by **brian** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:20 am

I'm willing to listen to what Beto has to say.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:22 am

degenerasian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:04 am
Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:41 pm and why he shouldn't run

Slate

Jacobin
what's wrong with these guys?

Eh, it’s pretty straightforward. Beto would be a huge upgrade over Cornyn as a US Senator from Texas, but is weaker than almost every other Democratic Presidential candidate on policy. He constantly offers vague pablum instead of concrete positions and it’s unclear what he actually believes in on many key issues. As far as I can tell, the entire case for him seems to be “he’s a likeable guy who’s cool because he reads books and was in a band.”

ETA:

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:25 am

"Got to contrast himself next to Ted Cruz for a few months" remains his greatest accomplishment on the national level. What a stroke of genius that was.

Post by **brian** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:28 am

I'm sure he'll probably never offer any policy positions at any point and just like do kickstands with his skateboard on stage at the debates.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:38 am

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:31 am

Thing is, he does have positions (of a sort), if you dig around just a little.

He's for universal coverage, but hasn't signed onto M4A. He's pretty clearly in favor of immigration reform and management that is pro-immigrant. He has stated he thinks the GND is a good place to start a conversation and policy discussion on climate change. Very progressive on LGBTQ issues.

He was also part of the New Democrat Coalition and has voted against off-shore drilling restrictions. So he's gonna have some real issues with progressives on his (apparent) pro-business stance.

He rather notoriously took a long road trip with a Republican MoC to promote bipartisanship and discuss issues of common ground. We'll see how this all plays out with a base that is WAAAY more pissed off than I think ppl like Beto and Booker are taking into account.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:22 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:31 am He rather notoriously took a long road trip with a Republican MoC to promote bipartisanship and discuss issues of common ground. We'll see how this all plays out with a base that is WAAAY more pissed off than I think ppl like Beto and Booker are taking into account.

And then refused to back that GOP MoC’s Democratic opponent last year in an extremely close race that was won by the Republican.

It’s the statements you referenced about “starting a conversation and policy discussion” that irritate me. No shit, we need to talk about pressing issues like climate change. But if you want to be the most powerful man on Earth I’d expect you to articulate your position.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:25 pm

What he's doing here is fucking up his VP goodwill. Likeable #2 was his national in and he's just draining that for nothing.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm

I mean, he's purposefully not staking out bold policy positions at this point. It's a strategy you can employ when you've got his kind of name recognition and it's this early. He can only do this for so long, obviously.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:21 pm

CNN is the best.

And by that I mean it's the literal worst and can die in a fucking fire.

Bernie Sanders in the 1970s urged nationalization of most major industries

The 1970s will start to be 50 years old as of next year. What a joke.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:44 pm

I'm telling you, CNN is shilling for Trump.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:44 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:44 pm I'm telling you, CNN is shilling for Trump.

Every time Trump says CNN is fake news Jeff Zucker cums in his pants.