2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

Yes, please tell me more how Warren isn't rapidly gathering support from the left.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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I know this is a RIDICULOUS way to assess these things, but...

I've listened to a ton of Pod Save America and Lovett or Leave It, including all of their live shows over the last 2-3 months. The one thing that has been really striking is how those crowds are EXTREMELY pro-Warren. No one comes even close to her when they do random shoutouts/spot polling of the crowd. And the guys on the show aren't exactly pushing her in any significant way. Hell, they kind of put their eggs in the Beto basket, at least in terms of that documentary and how impressed they were with his campaign in TX.

What they HAVE said is that she has been the most proactive with her policy recommendations and that she has a very good story to tell with her stump speech. That she is clearly listening to people while she campaigns and continues to bring in those personal stories of local people into each of her campaign stops. She's a good campaigner, in other words, and it's making a real difference on the trail. Something polling and most of the reporting doesn't seem to be picking up.

In terms of Bernie, I think we've talked about it a bunch here: He has negatives within likely Dem voters that are going to be tough to overcome. He branded himself decades ago as a Democratic Socialist... Even given how far left the base has swung, that's a pretty big horse pill to swallow. He also has issues with a lot of the folks that simply won't forgive him for perceived transgressions in 2016. I'm not trying to re-litigate that shit, but to ignore it is folly. Just like a LOT of people didn't ever really get over how Hillary acted in 2008.

So, yeah, it's not some Wall Street conspiracy or some Democratic Establishment scheme going on here. EW can be progressive but is still very much a figure living with in the Democratic Party. Bernie isn't. That's starting a campaign to win the Democratic Party's nomination from a deficit. Pretty basic math, really.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Rush2112 »

She is but the results of that poll can be summed up in "MoveOn's straw poll result"

Supposedly "nationwide" but only 5 states. No mention of the number of respondents, etc.

As I said she is gaining momentum, but I'd take those numbers with a huge grain of salt. Also, the primaries start next Feb, all the numbers now mean jack shit.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d »

Yeah, if you self-select the audience and then don't report on sample size, MoE, etc, its valueless. No different than a swamp poll.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian »

mister d wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:08 pm Yeah, if you self-select the audience and then don't report on sample size, MoE, etc, its valueless. No different than a swamp poll.
Except Swamp Polls tell sample size
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by sancarlos »

One of the first comments on that tweet shows an Emerson poll with markedly different results.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:17 am I know this is a RIDICULOUS way to assess these things, but...

As mentioned, poll numbers the summer before the primaries are notoriously "wrong" in terms of predicting the outcome.

At this point, it's all about momentum and the appearance of potentially being able to make a deep run. A lot of the field still fits in that category and it will be interesting to see if anyone can separate from the pack, or join the pack for some, after these two debates.

And as I've said, and many others have too, I don't care who emerges from the field, I'm voting for them. If it's Bernie, so be it.

I just hope everyone is on board with that plan. A bunch of people running around shrieking that everything is fixed this time next year is going to be worse than it was in 2016. People are freaked the fuck out and it's going to get super ugly.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:14 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:17 am I know this is a RIDICULOUS way to assess these things, but...

As mentioned, poll numbers the summer before the primaries are notoriously "wrong" in terms of predicting the outcome.
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Quinnipiac Poll May 28, 2015
Leading the pack with 10 percent each are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Rounding out the top 10 for televised debates are U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 7 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 6 percent, Donald Trump at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie at 4 percent and Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each.

Trump tops the "no way" list as 21 percent of Republican voters say they would definitely not support him. Bush is next with 17 percent, with Christie at 15 percent.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Brontoburglar »

uh, DJT hadn't announced a campaign for president yet at the time of that May 2015 poll

and he was tops in the primary polls ~6 weeks after he did
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Gee. Sorry.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Johnnie wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:02 am It's gunna be so great when AOC says "Fuck Biden. He's a Democrat Trump who wants to live in the past." and the Democratic establishment flips their shit.
I wish she used my words, but whatever.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by EnochRoot »

Johnnie wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:38 pm
Johnnie wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:02 am It's gunna be so great when AOC says "Fuck Biden. He's a Democrat Trump who wants to live in the past." and the Democratic establishment flips their shit.
I wish she used my words, but whatever.

That message needs to be shared.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Fuck him. Fuck him sideways.

And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d »

If you don't understand why Bernie would fight against Biden, to pick one, you're misunderstanding Bernie's platform entirely.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB »

mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:21 pm If you don't understand why Bernie would fight against Biden, to pick one, you're misunderstanding Bernie's platform entirely.
It sounds like Bernie's platform is "I will work to hurt the Democratic nominee if it's someone I don't approve of even if that will help Trump get re-elected." Except for the "re" part, it's not very different from his 2016 platform. I think I understand it just fine.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

Maybe if Bernie gets the nomination him and Trump can just complain for four months leading up to the election about how the system is rigged against both of them as rich, old white guys.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:21 pm If you don't understand why Bernie would fight against Biden, to pick one, you're misunderstanding Bernie's platform entirely.
We all know what’s going on here — Sanders is once again getting set up as the scapegoat in case the establishment pick — in this case, Biden — once again blows it against Trump. Also, that Tweet Steve posted is incredibly misleading. I just watched a video of the interview questions. What Bernie said was essentially, “I’m not going to talk about conceding now because I intend to win.” He also pointed out — correctly — that he’s the only candidate who’s *already* getting asked about dropping out. And the “some people say I could’ve gotten the nomination and beaten Trump” was a counterfactual to the interviewer saying that some people say you helped Trump win.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:33 pm
mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:21 pm If you don't understand why Bernie would fight against Biden, to pick one, you're misunderstanding Bernie's platform entirely.
It sounds like Bernie's platform is "I will work to hurt the Democratic nominee if it's someone I don't approve of even if that will help Trump get re-elected." Except for the "re" part, it's not very different from his 2016 platform. I think I understand it just fine.
Bernie doing dozens of campaign events for Hillary after the 2016 convention sure was a creative way for him “work to hurt the Democratic nominee.” You asked for the citation last week to the stats showing that far fewer Sanders voters backed Trump than Clinton voters backed McCain and I posted it. It’s worth a read because the article points out that even the limited number of Sanders-Trump voters that existed were largely comprised of people who were inclined to vote Republican to begin with.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:33 pmIt sounds like Bernie's platform is "I will work to hurt the Democratic nominee if it's someone I don't approve of even if that will help Trump get re-elected." Except for the "re" part, it's not very different from his 2016 platform. I think I understand it just fine.
What he's running for is so vastly different than what Biden is means there's no "same team" concern there. He's already seen what happens when he walks away and supports the establishment's electability candidate.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by degenerasian »

Ideologically, that's a strange voter. One that usually votes Republican, then goes to support Bernie, then goes back to voting Republican.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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degenerasian wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:48 pm Ideologically, that's a strange voter. One that usually votes Republican, then goes to support Bernie, then goes back to voting Republican.
Probably most common among voters who are socially conservative and economically populist and were willing to vote for Sanders for economic reasons but not for a neoliberal candidate like Clinton.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Only the Democrats play this stupid fucking game. They don't seize the moment and recognize a shift is happening where an entire voter block is right fucking there for the taking and decide "Nah, we need to stick with establishment principals because we're smarter than you and we know it! Fucking plebs."

Already predetermining who to blame for a failed outcome is exactly the opposite of leadership. If Biden is not the nominee I'm going to be watching exactly what he does to help whoever is.

Man, I remember Hillary not dropping out against Obama and even invoking Bobby Kennedy's assassination as to why she wouldn't. Such character in that moment.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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June of 2019 is way too soon to be barking about the establishment given the current climate. Biden is facing tons of scrutiny and while he may be at the top of the polls now I don't see anyway he's such a sure thing to start tweeting that shit now.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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His current polling is enough of a red flag.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:19 pm His current polling is enough of a red flag.
Then just come out and say his name. He's setting it up where any nominee that's not him is not legitimate, so to echo Steve, fuck him.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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If he stayed in against Warren, I'd be right next to you yelling. I don't think that would be the case, but who knows.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Giff »

mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:31 pm If he stayed in against Warren, I'd be right next to you yelling. I don't think that would be the case, but who knows.
He needs to stand down whoever it is. If one disagrees, they might as well campaign for Trump if Biden's the nominee.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Yeah, that's the thing that is going to make people go absolutely batshit insane. We've talked about it a lot on here, and I have to say I think there's some level of denial on the Bernie back side, and some level of over reach on the anti-Bernie v.2016 side.

But if ANYONE pulls that shit this time around, it's damn close to treasonous. Not really kidding. You are ratfucking the country if you purport to be a Democrat or someone that cares about the future and getting Trump and his band of mafia-wannabe thugs and bigots and homophobes out of the WH. Especially when you factor in the likelihood of SC seats coming up in the next 4 years.

Fucking c'mon with that bullshit.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Giff wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:34 pm
mister d wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:31 pm If he stayed in against Warren, I'd be right next to you yelling. I don't think that would be the case, but who knows.
He needs to stand down whoever it is. If one disagrees, they might as well campaign for Trump if Biden's the nominee.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

Yeah, Biden is the same as Trump. Come the fuck on already.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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You want to fight out the Progressive vs. Centrist battle, you do it in the primaries and then you shut the fuck up and, more importantly, get in line. It's not complicated. People so butt hurt about their special candidate. Gimme a fucking break with that shit.

I praised Bernie earlier, because he moved the party in the proper direction in 2016. He continues to be a great campaigner and speaks truth to power like he's being doing it his entire life (save it, that was on purpose.)

There's absolutely a problem with establishment Dems fucking things up and not knowing when to get out of the way. So let's all go out and make this point. When things get narrowed down, donate to the progressive candidate of your choice. Hell, get really motivated and canvas or make calls.

But sitting on here bitching about the establishment... I get that's what we're here to do, and by all means, have at it.

I'm just saying, there are some easy but high impact things you can do to make a difference. Do it.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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And I'm just going to say it, saying Biden is the same as Trump is Godwin's Law on this site.

Trump might be REALLY close to acting like Hitler, but it still fucks your argument up when you go down that path.

Saying Biden=Trump is fucking ridiculous and makes it really hard to take the poster seriously.

I respect all you guys, and I'm not trying to be a dick, but Jesus. C'mon with that.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

I have no doubt that Sanders and Warren will back Biden, and actively campaign for him, if he’s the nominee. Just like Sanders did for Clinton in 2016. But it’s maddening how it’s only ever Progressives, and not centrists, who are chided for insufficient party loyalty. Biden did a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Fred Upton during the critical 2018 Congressional elections. Beto refused to back the Democratic opponent of GOP Rep. Will Hurd during that same election cycle. And a whole bunch of powerful Dems, including Obama, backed Joe Lieberman’s independent Senate run after he lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont. Centrist types have already been making noise about challenging AOC in 2020. If people want to ask Sanders to commit to Biden, so be it. But somehow I doubt those same people will press Biden to actively support Sanders in the event that he gets the nomination.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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It's really just me saying Biden = Trump or at least Biden = palatable Trump.

But I seriously fucking mean it. He's garbage. We need less of him in every conceivable way. His old man thought process. His old man ways. His old man persona. He's a fucking shield for the wealthy class but is a different color on paper. I cannot wait to vote against his ass in the primary (June 2nd, baby). And if he fucks up over and over on his way through the primary I'm going to be laughing at it. I hope he's demoralized on his way out of town in the same manner as Hillary.

So fuck him.

But really, fuck me if I have to inevitably vote for his punk ass.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Joe K wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:30 pmBut it’s maddening how it’s only ever Progressives, and not centrists, who are chided for insufficient party loyalty. Biden did a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Fred Upton during the critical 2018 Congressional elections. Beto refused to back the Democratic opponent of GOP Rep. Will Hurd during that same election cycle. And a whole bunch of powerful Dems, including Obama, backed Joe Lieberman’s independent Senate run after he lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont.
The fact that I've heard of all of those examples you mentioned suggests that, in fact, centrists *do* get chided for insufficient party loyalty. It's just that that kind of chiding gets drowned out by their being chided for being Republicans-lite.

I would be very, very surprised if Biden wouldn't support Sanders in the general election if Sanders got the nomination. Though if Biden finishes back in the pack, he probably wouldn't do a ton of events because no one will want to hear from him.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Look, Joe, you like to cite stuff and tell half or a quarter of the story. I think you're a good dude, so I don't think you're being disingenuous, HOWEVAH... Bernie staying in after he KNEW he wasn't going to win. AND playing up the whole "this whole thing is rigged against ME" was very harmful. More importantly, you can pull all the data you want about Hillary vs. Bernie backers voting for the GOP candidate all you want. There's a big difference in those two races (hint margin of win/loss).

And what I really want to hammer home... It's not fucking normal for a candidate that knows they're not going to win to stay in the race. It just isn't.

1980 - Very contentious, because Carter was being BLASTED for the Iran Hostage crisis. Kennedy concedes the day before the convention, but that was an extremely nasty convention. Historically so.
1984 - Mondale takes it home after having pretty nasty debates with Hart. Jackson was a distant third, but played a role at the convention, if I recall. Anyways, after the sex scandal shut Hart completely down, there was party unity going into and out of that convention.
1988 - Dukakis picking Bentson over Jackson pissed off the black vote, but in general everyone gave their delegates/votes to Dukakis and their was party unity coming out of that convention.
1992 - Brown stayed in it, because if he'd won his home state, he would've had enough delegates for the nomination (big distinguisher from Bernie, who had no viable shot, and he knew it). So for a couple of months prior to the convention, there was party unity.
1996 - Duh
2000 - Close to Duh, with Bradley kind of a meek after thought.
2004 - While it was nasty and tough at times, Kerry offered Edwards the Veep slot almost 4 months(!) prior to the convention.
2008 - Already beaten to death on this site.
2012 - Duh
2016 - Holy shit.
2020 - It's a shit show already.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Johnnie wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:36 pm It's really just me saying Biden = Trump or at least Biden = palatable Trump.

But I seriously fucking mean it. He's garbage. We need less of him in every conceivable way. His old man thought process. His old man ways. His old man persona. He's a fucking shield for the wealthy class but is a different color on paper. I cannot wait to vote against his ass in the primary (June 2nd, baby). And if he fucks up over and over on his way through the primary I'm going to be laughing at it. I hope he's demoralized on his way out of town in the same manner as Hillary.

So fuck him.

But really, fuck me if I have to inevitably vote for his punk ass.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:00 pm... AND playing up the whole "this whole thing is rigged against ME" was very harmful.
To me, this is the biggest thing. And he made the "rigged" argument for months. I remember him making it in connection with superdelegates (this is the argument that deceived my mom). He also made it in connection with closed primaries, i.e., Democratic Party primaries open only to members of the Democratic Party.

As I've said before, Bernie Sanders did an admirable job fighting Trump after the convention. But by then the damage was done.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Rush2112 »

She lost because she had way more dirt exposed than the average presidential candidate, and was the target of a smear campaign going back 20+ years.

She lost because no one thought she was going to lose to Trump.

She lost because a shitload of people that were excited for Obama didn't vote because Hillary is about exciting as cold rice pudding and there was no way she was going to vote for Trump.

She lost because she thought the midwest was in the bag, when it wasn't.
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Beto speaking Spanish and Booker's face while he does it has become the meme of the debate:

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