2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d »

We've already seen what happens when a corporate centrist legacy act goes up against Trump. Sanders, as someone who has explicitly kept himself out of the party, has no responsibility to sit back and watch the exact same scenario play out again.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

mister d wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:41 am We've already seen what happens when a corporate centrist legacy act goes up against Trump. Sanders, as someone who has explicitly kept himself out of the party, has no responsibility to sit back and watch the exact same scenario play out again.
I fear that a Biden candidacy would be 2016 all over again in multiple respects. It’s possible that Trump’s demonstrated incompetence will mean that even a weak opponent can beat him. But that’s a big risk to take. The candidate who should really go hard at Biden is Harris, because she seems like the natural person to take his role in the race. But I’m not sure she will go at him as aggressively as she will need to.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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One good thing about this massive field is it'll be tougher for the "leadership" to steer to ship in the direction they naturally would. If it were just Biden versus a newbie like Pete/Beto versus Warren versus Sanders, it would be a fucking mess.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

I have the same fears you guys have, but I think Mr. D's latest post is why people shouldn't be freaking out about Biden so much... yet. Let this process play out a bit.

I will say this... The loudest squawking is on Twitter. Guess who isn't on Twitter and doesn't give a rat's ass about this stuff right now: the vast majority of centrist, low information Democratic voters.

That's why all of this so far out from the primaries is just silly. The VAST MAJORITY of likely voters in the primaries plain aren't paying ANY attention, other than to note the size of the field and shake their heads.

FFS, I'm not planning on watching a minute of these debates. I've got better things to do.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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See, I think that's partial reason to yell about Biden early and often. Low info voters are going to be his core and the longer he goes, esp as the front-runner, the harder it'll be to unseat.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:35 am See, I think that's partial reason to yell about Biden early and often. Low info voters are going to be his core and the longer he goes, esp as the front-runner, the harder it'll be to unseat.
I don't have any problem with this approach, I'm just saying it's not going to have much of an overall affect. Literally shouting into a void right now. But if it's cathartic or whatever, people should do it. Can't hurt, imo.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Rams Fanny »

It seems to me the best way to get rid of Biden is to give him a microphone and let him keep talking. As was mentioned upthread, he is woefully out of touch with modern sensibilities. Also he seems to think running Clinton's 'rush to the middle' playbook from 96-98 is the key to victory. From what I've seen, the energized Dem voters don't want a centrist to work with the other side but a sweeping liberal mandate to punish the Republicans for the last ten years (obstructionism during Obama and generally for Trump years).
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Rams Fanny wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:07 pm It seems to me the best way to get rid of Biden is to give him a microphone and let him keep talking. As was mentioned upthread, he is woefully out of touch with modern sensibilities. Also he seems to think running Clinton's 'rush to the middle' playbook from 96-98 is the key to victory. From what I've seen, the energized Dem voters don't want a centrist to work with the other side but a sweeping liberal mandate to punish the Republicans for the last ten years (obstructionism during Obama and generally for Trump years).
It seems, from spending time online, that this would work. But the vast majority of Dems are not online and actually like Biden (apparently). While all the woke folks online are calling Biden racist, there are polls suggesting he's the top choice of actual African-American Democratic voters.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

It's just a sad reminder that the majority of voters are just painfully unaware of things and name recognition is the most important political issue. It's partially why Trump is in power. He's been on TV since forever, everyone knows him.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by degenerasian »

Steve of phpBB wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:11 pm
Rams Fanny wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:07 pm It seems to me the best way to get rid of Biden is to give him a microphone and let him keep talking. As was mentioned upthread, he is woefully out of touch with modern sensibilities. Also he seems to think running Clinton's 'rush to the middle' playbook from 96-98 is the key to victory. From what I've seen, the energized Dem voters don't want a centrist to work with the other side but a sweeping liberal mandate to punish the Republicans for the last ten years (obstructionism during Obama and generally for Trump years).
It seems, from spending time online, that this would work. But the vast majority of Dems are not online and actually like Biden (apparently). While all the woke folks online are calling Biden racist, there are polls suggesting he's the top choice of actual African-American Democratic voters.
Of course because he's Obama's vice president. That goes a long way.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Johnnie wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:44 pm It's just a sad reminder that the majority of voters are just painfully unaware of things and name recognition is the most important political issue. It's partially why Trump is in power. He's been on TV since forever, everyone knows him.
I'm much more sympathetic to the people who knew Trump only from his carefully crafted tv image than those who knew the truth and voted for him anyway.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Johnnie wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:44 pm It's just a sad reminder that the majority of voters are just painfully unaware of things and name recognition is the most important political issue. It's partially why Trump is in power. He's been on TV since forever, everyone knows him.
I had to explain to my mom last month about how Biden was not a good choice at all. She and her friends were excited about him. She read up on some of the issues and decided that he isn't as great as she thought. She let all her friends know too. Looks like Warren is going to get a handful of votes for 70+ white women in central Indiana. Should get her through the primaries.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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duff wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:24 pm
Johnnie wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:44 pm It's just a sad reminder that the majority of voters are just painfully unaware of things and name recognition is the most important political issue. It's partially why Trump is in power. He's been on TV since forever, everyone knows him.
I had to explain to my mom last month about how Biden was not a good choice at all. She and her friends were excited about him. She read up on some of the issues and decided that he isn't as great as she thought. She let all her friends know too. Looks like Warren is going to get a handful of votes for 70+ white women in central Indiana. Should get her through the primaries.
If only it was that easy to persuade Trump voters.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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I know some of you guys don’t like PFT because he works for Barstool, but this is pretty damn funny:

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Holy shit that was great.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Johnnie wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:50 pm Holy shit that was great.
Pete handled that extremely well. I don’t think he’s ready to be president but I’m glad he’s getting experience on the big stage because he’s clearly a very skilled communicator.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Joe K wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:04 pm
Johnnie wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:50 pm Holy shit that was great.
Pete handled that extremely well. I don’t think he’s ready to be president but I’m glad he’s getting experience on the big stage because he’s clearly a very skilled communicator.
He actually did. Very smooth. Speaking as a dude with a short temperament, he has an awesome temperament.

Also #YangGang, no tie. Makes me laugh a bit.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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I don't like Eric Swalwell's face.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B »

I know twitter is unreliable but it’s looking to me like Biden and Bernie both sucked hard?
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

I didn’t watch the debate and only caught snippets online but Biden’s answer to Harris on busing, which has been getting lots of attention, was really, really bad. “Leave it up to local governments to decide” is the quintessential segregationist position used to oppose civil rights. That answer alone should have been a dealbreaker in a Democratic primary in the 1970s, let alone in 2020.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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A_B wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:39 pm I know twitter is unreliable but it’s looking to me like Biden and Bernie both sucked hard?
Swalwell took a huge swing at Biden early. (You'll see "pass the torch" memes tomorrow, probably.) Then Kamala, as Joe notes, had a very personal story about having to be bussed to school 20 years after Brown v BoE was law and hit Biden on segregation. Then he kinda fell into a trap on his own. Chuck Todd framed a "one to two word answer please" question about what the most important issue was because Obama had to choose between health care and climate change when he took office. (Coding health care) So when it was his turn he went off on Chuck Todd about climate change and completely sidestepped the answer. He also tried riding Obama's coattails on another issue, which is escaping me. And he insisted he could work with Mitch McConnell because they passed legislation. But Michael Bennett laid the smackdown on that topic because he correctly noted that the Bush tax cuts remained forever because of said legislation.

Bernie was so-so throughout and had a strong finish. There was one point when he talked over Gillibrand, so that was a bad look. Ultimately he played the hits, but received a great response on one of the things he said. I'm forgetting what though.

Kamala shined. She won, IMO. All of her positions were strong and on the topic they threw to Mayor Pete regarding racial issues in South Bend (which he answered honestly to his credit which was also an excellent moment overall) there was this back and forth arguing and when the moderator tried to change topics she said something to the effect of "Excuse me, as the only person of color on this stage I have a thing to say about racial Injustice." Really awesome moment. But she did make me too my eyes once. Everyone was talking over each other at one point and she says "Americans don't want to see the food fight. They want to know how we can put food on the table."

Mayor Pete had some great responses. He had good poise and shined well in the moment. And when Swalwell decided to chirp "You should have fired the police chief" in response to the recent shooting, Mayor Pete shot a serious death glare. He also had the funniest response of the night to the question of who we have to mend fences with most once the Democrats are back in charge when he said "Well, I'm not sure who Trump will have pissed off by then, so probably anyone."

Hickenlooper? No clue. I think he said something. Yang? Spoke 3 times all night, but sounded really intelligent with what he did say. Gillibrand? Had a decent answer about something, but I've forgotten what. Very certain if she had more time she would have benefitted. Bennett? He went at McConnell hard which was nice. Swalwell? He was annoying as fuck. And the fucking pièce de résistance, Marianne Williamson? Sweet chocolate dipped Christ what a space cadet. The meme of the night is "New Zealand" because of her. She's weird as fuck and her accent makes no sense.

Edit:



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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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She's clearly insane and the worst possible Dem nominee, but still would be a damned improvement over Trump.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Harris did everyone a favor by attacking Biden last night, but this is an example of why she has a long way to go to earn the trust of Progressives:

Also, her record on immigration comes nowhere close to matching her statements during this campaign:
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Very, very likely Yang's mic was muted or something. You can clearly see Biden turn to listen to what he has to say and there's no sound.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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I'm admittedly a little in the bag on this being from IN, but I really believe that Pete and Liz are the two best options out there. I don't trust one other motherfucker out there, save for maybe Bernie, but I think his heart is above his head a bit. It's way early and I agree with a lot of what's been said here. 10 people on a debate stage is asinine. Everyone knew there were only 3, maybe 4 legitimate candidates there. Get the bullshit off the stage and let's talk for real.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Johnnie wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:28 am Very, very likely Yang's mic was muted or something. You can clearly see Biden turn to listen to what he has to say and there's no sound.

wow that is rock solid PROOF right there
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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He was probably going on about foreskin and the censors jumped in.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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This killed me (from Slate)

17. Michael Bennet. I don’t understand why he’s running. He used the phrase mercantilism and talked about the Strait of Hormuz. He sounds like someone who worked in Eisenhower’s cabinet and had to resign from the State Department in 1966 over an incident involving martinis and “Indochina.”
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Rams Fanny wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:07 pm It seems to me the best way to get rid of Biden is to give him a microphone and let him keep talking. As was mentioned upthread, he is woefully out of touch with modern sensibilities. Also he seems to think running Clinton's 'rush to the middle' playbook from 96-98 is the key to victory. From what I've seen, the energized Dem voters don't want a centrist to work with the other side but a sweeping liberal mandate to punish the Republicans for the last ten years (obstructionism during Obama and generally for Trump years).
1) Not to be too nitpicky, but Clinton didn't rush to the middle in 96-98. He was the DLC's man-child, leading that organ. in 91 and building up a national grassroots centrist operation in the process. I can tell you from personal experience, Al From and the rest of the DLCers NEVER thought he'd win in 92, they were pretty sure they were going to have to build their organization and case for 96. Yes, Gingrich helped push along a more conservative compromise on certain issues, but Clinton was all about 3 strikes and overall much tougher DoJ policies, for example. He purposefully went after Sister Soulja and subsequently Jesse Jackson in the 92 campaign.

2) This. 1000x. It's why I'm not getting too worked up about Biden... His ppl have kept him with a pretty light speaking/stumping schedule for this very reason. The biggest story out of last night is his terrible response to Harris on race. He's a living, breathing gaffe waiting to happen.

3) He is also going to get fucking HAMMERED if he emerges as the front-runner early in the primaries. He's now on record with shitty comments about race, he has a very checkered past in terms of voting, but the biggest place he's going to take it is over Anita Hill. He wasn't really pressed on that, but what little came his way, he didn't (IMO) answer it very well. (He also did a terrible job of "apologizing" for being a handsy creep with so many women and young girls over the years.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Ryan »

Does any of that really matter if most of the people that actually feel like voting still agree with him?
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Ryan wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:14 pm Does any of that really matter if most of the people that actually feel like voting still agree with him?
I don't think "most of the people" are aware and/or need to be reminded when it comes to Anita Hill and his front and center role of being a pig/asshole/PoS at the time.

People just don't pay attention like we do on here, like I've been railing about for weeks.

Trump (and his surrogates) will kill Biden in a general. I don't like to put too much stock in electability, but Biden has a HUGE problem on this front and it will come up down the road.

I'm not with Johnnie on Biden=Hitler (I know he didn't say that, I'm just being a dick), but I am absolutely with the folks on this board that are worried about Biden in the general. And not just because of the valid points about suppressing the progressive vote, but because I see a nightmare of negative ads being run against Biden that are going to be effective because they are true. No one needs to conjure up some fake email crisis with Biden, it's all there in black and white (ha).
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:41 pm
Ryan wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:14 pm Does any of that really matter if most of the people that actually feel like voting still agree with him?
Trump (and his surrogates) will kill Biden in a general. I don't like to put too much stock in electability, but Biden has a HUGE problem on this front and it will come up down the road.

I'm not with Johnnie on Biden=Hitler (I know he didn't say that, I'm just being a dick), but I am absolutely with the folks on this board that are worried about Biden in the general. And not just because of the valid points about suppressing the progressive vote, but because I see a nightmare of negative ads being run against Biden that are going to be effective because they are true. No one needs to conjure up some fake email crisis with Biden, it's all there in black and white (ha).
After 2016, I’m hesitant to say that any candidate is or is not electable. They all have flaws that *could* be significant issues in the General. But with Biden, his flaws are obvious AND he’s far worse than every other leading Democratic candidate on policy. However, despite how bad he looked last night his connection to Obama and the Obama legacy will make him a formidable candidate in the primary.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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There's a fundamental difference between the two parties when it comes to electability. They will, quite obviously, hold their nose and do as their told. Dems don't do that. My breakdown of conventions yesterday reminded me of how difficult it is to keep herding the cats on our side of the equation. They simply don't have that difficult a job.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Nonlinear FC wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:07 pm There's a fundamental difference between the two parties when it comes to electability. They will, quite obviously, hold their nose and do as their told. Dems don't do that. My breakdown of conventions yesterday reminded me of how difficult it is to keep herding the cats on our side of the equation. They simply don't have that difficult a job.
I think it's more difficult then you think. I think the Dems miscalculate who their base consists of so they are surprised when it doesn't pan out, especially when there is a divide between centrists and progressives right now. If the tent is too big then it's harder to herd cats.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

degenerasian wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:16 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:07 pm There's a fundamental difference between the two parties when it comes to electability. They will, quite obviously, hold their nose and do as their told. Dems don't do that. My breakdown of conventions yesterday reminded me of how difficult it is to keep herding the cats on our side of the equation. They simply don't have that difficult a job.
I think it's more difficult then you think. I think the Dems miscalculate who their base consists of so they are surprised when it doesn't pan out, especially when there is a divide between centrists and progressives right now. If the tent is too big then it's harder to herd cats.
You are misreading my post.

Dems = extremely big tent, establishment that is resistant and in denial of the youth/progressive movement.
Reps = hold your nose and vote for who you are told. Never been more crystalized than in a moment where Trump isn't put in check in anyway by GOP establishment. We will see what the GOP voters do in 2020, but it sure didn't look so great for the GOP in 2018.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Rush2112 »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:41 pm People just don't pay attention like we do on here, like I've been railing about for weeks.
But people do after national debates. I'm glad that they had this first round so early. Hopefully, 12-15 of the margin of error candidates drop out in the next week or two then the double-digit people keep hammering Biden. History is rife with known candidates/early leaders hurting themselves in the early going and then losing in Iowa and NH.
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

For those of you worried about Biden, I don't see how this trend doesn't continue as there's more debates and the other candidates are exposed to more and more people.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Giff »

Seems like the cop killing is hurting Buttigeig some. Will be interesting to see how the fundraising report changes things, if it does.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Rush2112 wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:20 am
Nonlinear FC wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:41 pm People just don't pay attention like we do on here, like I've been railing about for weeks.
But people do after national debates. I'm glad that they had this first round so early. Hopefully, 12-15 of the margin of error candidates drop out in the next week or two then the double-digit people keep hammering Biden. History is rife with known candidates/early leaders hurting themselves in the early going and then losing in Iowa and NH.
Still millions and millions of people that didn't watch and won't start paying attention until after the winter holidays when the first primary is actually near. The field needs to get narrowed down. It's overwhelming, which is why when asked, a lot of those early polls were sitting heavy on Biden. The Obama adjacency is part of it, but a big part is just name recognition. Same reason Bernie sat so high early on.

It's not going to wind up looking like that in 5-6 months.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
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