2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by tennbengal »

The case for Beto:

https://crooked.com/articles/beto-president-2020/

Dan Pfeiffer:
Is Beto O’Rourke running for President?

This question looms large over the early days of the 2020 Presidential campaign. Sought-after campaign staffers and endorsers are champing at the bit to know the answer before they cast their lots with one of the dozens of other very qualified and talented candidates who have been not-so-discreetly running for president since Donald Trump was sworn in.

Political pundits, campaign reporters, and seasoned operatives are speculating, with most political elites cynically looking down their noses at the prospect of a Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign. “He hasn’t paid his dues;” “He is a creation of the media;” “It’s not his time.” The whole conversation around Beto has been eerily familiar to me, because these are the exact arguments people made to me when I told them I was considering working for Barack Obama 10 years ago.

Washington was wrong about Obama and there are many reasons to believe it’s wrong about Beto. Not only should Beto run, there is a strong case to make that if he were to do so, he would be one of the strongest candidates in the field.

First, the best campaigns marry enthusiasm and organization. Any smart campaign with competent staff can build a top-flight organization, but enthusiasm is not something that can be engineered in a lab. It is spontaneous and only a few candidates are able to inspire it. Enthusiasm means more volunteers, more first time voters, and more grassroots donations.

I have never seen a Senate candidate—including Obama in 2004—inspire the sort of enthusiasm that Beto did in his race. This is about more than Lebron wearing a Beto hat, or Beyonce sporting one on Instagram. It’s about the people all over the country with no connection to Texas with signs in their yards and stickers on their cars. It’s about the hundreds of thousands of people across the country who gave small dollar donations because they were inspired by his candidacy and moved by his pledge not to take PAC money. It’s about the crowds of thousands in small towns that would turn out to hear him speak on rainy weeknights. It’s about the passionate army of volunteers who knocked doors, made calls, and sent text messages. He built a national grassroots movement for change and many of those people are waiting to be called into duty and head to Iowa and New Hampshire. The enthusiasm is real and matters. If Beto were to go to Iowa City next week, I am confident he would draw a crowd three times larger than any candidate has since Obama first stumped there.

Second, despite losing his Senate race, Beto has a very strong case to make that he can put together a winning coalition. Democrats are engaged in a never-ending, emphatically stupid, ill-informed debate about whether the party should appeal to a growing base or try to court more moderate independent voters. This is a false choice—up until the moment the electoral college is abolished, the only way a Democrat can piece together the 270 votes necessary to win the White House is do both. Our nominee needs to be able to excite first time and periodic voters to turn out AND win over independent voters, particularly in the exurban and rural counties that turned Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania from Obama blue to Trump red. This was the formula Beto used to do better than any Democrat has done in Texas in decades. According to exit polls, first time voters made up one-fifth of the electorate and went for Beto by 14 points. Beto’s successful progressive appeal to the base didn’t turn off the middle—he did 12 points better with independents than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That wasn’t enough to win in Texas, but if he even came close to repeating that performance nation-wide, he would deliver every state Obama won in 2012, and could make Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia competitive.

Third, the DNC has played with the primary calendar multiple ways this century and yet Iowa is still kingmaker. Victory in Iowa propelled Al Gore, John Kerry, Obama, and Hillary Clinton to their nominations, and Beto seems tailor-made for the state. The O’Rourke campaign in Texas was essentially an Iowa Caucus campaign on a grander scale. He visited every one of Texas’s 254 counties. He held town halls every night and seemed to enjoy the back and forth with voters that is key to a successful Iowa campaign. If you can win in Iowa, you can win the White House, and Beto just proved he has what it takes to win in Iowa.

Finally, Democrats have fallen behind Republicans on the campaign-innovation curve—it’s a key reason we lost in 2016. But a Beto O’Rourke presidential campaign has the potential to change this. Like Obama’s 2008 campaign, Beto’s Senate campaign felt different because it was different. He didn’t hire a pollster. He spoke like an actual human instead of an AI-generated amalgamation of focus grouped talking points and consultant approved buzzwords like “fight” and “everyday Americans.” He spent his money on digital advertising rather than dump it into the black hole of TV ads that fatten consultant pockets more than they inform voters; and he communicated with voters in innovative ways. By live-streaming so much content, Beto was able to tell his own story directly to the voters without filtering it through the funhouse mirrors of the legacy media. Tens of millions of people watched Beto’s impassioned defense of NFL players exercising their right to protest, taking his message directly to the people, instead of relying on the mainstream media or political Twitter to do the job for him. If Democrats run the same old campaign, using the same tired and outdated tactics, we will certainly lose to Trump. Our nominee must have the courage to run a different kind of campaign. Beto has demonstrated that courage.

None of this is to say Beto is our “best” candidate or “most electable” candidate or even the candidate I’d end up voting for in the California primary. It’s simply too early to know. The current list of possible 2020 candidates is as impressive, diverse, and talented as any I’ve ever seen, and we don’t need to go casting about for alternatives. No one knows what voters will be looking for two years from now, and you never know how good candidates are until they stand up in diners in New Hampshire and Iowa and try to explain why they, out of 300 plus million Americans, are best suited to become president. But to write Beto off is to repeat the same mistake pundits made with Obama.

In the closing days of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, Michelle Obama would meet with undecided Iowans who liked her husband but were considering caucusing for one his opponents with the hope of voting for Obama in some future election. The future first lady, who we referred to as “the closer” for her ability to persuade undecided voters, would always respond with a version of the following: “This is Barack’s moment. This is our chance to bring real change. It won’t be the same in four or eight years. If you believe in Barack, the moment is now.”

Millions of people already believe in Beto O’Rourke, and that moment, for them and him, may be upon us.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Counterpoint, from the National Review.

The Snob Party

I want Beto to disembowel this dogshit party.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

Johnnie wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:40 pm Counterpoint, from the National Review.

The Snob Party

I want Beto to disembowel this dogshit party.
I mean that garbage is pretty garden-variety Williamson pseudo-intellectual nonsense.

An Ivy League education is bad when it's a Democrat who acquires one, but Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Ted Cruz et al are man of the people, dammit!
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

Johnnie wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:40 pm Counterpoint, from the National Review.

The Snob Party

I want Beto to disembowel this dogshit party.
Kevin Williamson sucks. But the better critique I saw of the Crooked media piece is that it’s entirely devoid of policy arguments as part of its push for Beto to run. It’s clear that Beto is a skilled fundraiser and has natural charisma. But I have yet to see the case made that his policy views are as good as Warren, Sanders, Gillibrand, etc. Obviously the Dems need to win in 2020 first. But it’s also really crucial that the next Dem President has the right policy priorities.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

Joe K wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:51 pm
Johnnie wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:40 pm Counterpoint, from the National Review.

The Snob Party

I want Beto to disembowel this dogshit party.
Kevin Williamson sucks. But the better critique I saw of the Crooked media piece is that it’s entirely devoid of policy arguments as part of its push for Beto to run. It’s clear that Beto is a skilled fundraiser and has natural charisma. But I have yet to see the case made that his policy views are as good as Warren, Sanders, Gillibrand, etc. Obviously the Dems need to win in 2020 first. But it’s also really crucial that the next Dem President has the right policy priorities.
This is a fair criticism, but Beto's policy positions are mostly out there to be evaluated. He's not a Clinton (Bill)-style Blue Dog Democrat or a Clinton (Hillary)-style Wall Street shill. He seems to fall pretty firmly into the middle of road amongst the Democratic mainstream. He's probably too conservative to anyone who worships Bernie, but he's not exactly a Joe Donnelly GOP-lite designed to appeal to Never Trumpers.

I saw all I needed to see from Beto when he stood up passionately and eloquently for the importance of protecting the NFL players right to kneel in protest of police treatment of African-Americans. It would have been easy for him running in Texas to hem and haw about respecting the flag while defending the First Amendment, but that's not the route he chose. I firmly suspect in a national race he'll probably easily tack more to left while maintaining himself firmly in the American mainstream.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by tennbengal »

Agreed with Brian. I suspect the better candidate will be the one who has the ability to move left as opposed to the one who is already left. That said, it's not like Beto ran as a DINO in Texas, that was a pretty solid liberal/progressive campaign for a formerly deep red state. I will be happy to watch his messaging evolve. If he declares, I am on his side from the jump.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by degenerasian »

anything to get young people excited to vote
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B »

degenerasian wrote: Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:32 pm anything to get young people excited to vote
Well, I could do without the mass shootings that motivated a bunch of them to vote.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian »

For what it's worth, it's pretty easy to predict that Beto is going to be (and has been already) torn down ceaselessly from the left because he may not agree on every single policy position that Bernie or AOC holds, but at the end of the day fuck those people.

I'm ready for a worthy and necessary debate over the next 12-18 months about the kinds of policies the Democrats should put forward, but come Nov. 3, 2020 all of the whiny Berniecrats need to suck it up and support whomever the nominee is or else quit complaining about Trump.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by tennbengal »

This takedown of David Sirota's disingenuous muck-raking is quite delightful (whole thread worth a read):

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

The reactions to a potential Beto Presidential run are interesting, and mostly boil down to one’s view of the Obama Presidency. Obama’s biggest supporters, like the Pod Save guys who worked for him, see in Beto another young, charismatic guy who’s skilled at fundraising and campaigning. But his critics on the left see a guy with a comparatively thin policy record who hasn’t yet shown a willingness to take on corporate power in the same way that others like Warren, Sanders or Sherrod Brown have. If you think Obama was too soft on Wall Street, Big Pharma, or the fossil fuel industry — which is a view I think that Beto’s critics from the left generally hold — then the wariness about Beto is understandable.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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This is where I'm torn ... I want to win more than anything but Beto likely isn't who I'd want to win with given the choice.



(Which feels eerily like 2016 to me where I simply thought Hillary couldn't lose.)
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2020 Presidential Election Thread

Post by brian »

I dunno. One man's opinion, but maybe best to pull this stuff away from the Politics thread or even the Trump thread, though some crossover there is to be expected.

The DailyKos straw poll is interesting for a lot of reasons, some mentioned here in Weigel's tweet. It appears Bernie's candidacy might be stillborn, especially if most of the people who sent him money in 2016 are backing Beto or Warren instead. I think history will look upon his candidacy in 2016 and frankly his entire legislative record with a great deal of skepticism as the years go on.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread

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brian wrote: Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:43 pm It appears Bernie's candidacy might be stillborn, especially if most of the people who sent him money in 2016 are backing Beto or Warren instead. I think history will look upon his candidacy in 2016 and frankly his entire legislative record with a great deal of skepticism as the years go on.
We went in less than 3 years from Clinton saying that single payer healthcare “will never, ever” happen to the majority of people on that straw poll now backing Medicare for All. Sanders’ 2016 campaign, and the platform he ran on, had a huge influence on that. He also was one of the most influential Senators in helping to turn Congressional opinion against support for the Saudis’ humanitarian devastation of Yemen.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread

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I felt aswirl with warm secretions.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread

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Joe K wrote: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:08 pmWe went in less than 3 years from Clinton saying that single payer healthcare “will never, ever” happen to the majority of people on that straw poll now backing Medicare for All.
No purity testing!
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread

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rass wrote: Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:01 pm hey
Oops. I looked for that!

ETA: Merged.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie »

Add Tulsi Gabbardi to the mix. And I don't think it's official yet, but Kamala Harris may be running too.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Joe K »

Harris is definitely running. I don’t see Gabbard getting much traction. She’s pissed off the establishment wing of the party by criticizing Obama’s foreign policy (especially on Syria) and doesn’t seem to have the domestic policy positions to get traction with the left.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B »

Harris is announcing in mlk day, no?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Add Julian Castro to the mix.

He actually announced this on Pod Save America back in mid December (which I remember listening to and forgot), but apparently it's officially official or something.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Gillibrand is making it official tonight on Colbert.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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So Wall St. signed off?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:42 pm Gillibrand is making it official tonight on Colbert.
I'd prefer her in a non presidential role. I agree with her that military commanders have too much power and she aligns with other Democrat platforms, but other than that she seems very run of the mill.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Joe K wrote: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:53 pm Harris is definitely running. I don’t see Gabbard getting much traction. She’s pissed off the establishment wing of the party by criticizing Obama’s foreign policy (especially on Syria) and doesn’t seem to have the domestic policy positions to get traction with the left.
Not just criticized on Syria, but went and met with Assad on her own.

Also has a huge ‘hates the gays’ zit on her forehead that won’t go away.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Square Rob wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:35 am
Joe K wrote: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:53 pm Harris is definitely running. I don’t see Gabbard getting much traction. She’s pissed off the establishment wing of the party by criticizing Obama’s foreign policy (especially on Syria) and doesn’t seem to have the domestic policy positions to get traction with the left.
Not just criticized on Syria, but went and met with Assad on her own.

Also has a huge ‘hates the gays’ zit on her forehead that won’t go away.
And not only just "hates the gays" but openly supported conversion therapy. She has no future nationally in the Democratic Party.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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brian wrote: Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:42 pm Like it or not, best bet for the Dems will be younger candidates without 30 years of floor votes.
I think that this also helps for the "get out to vote" People are going to vote to get Trump et al out (we hope and pray) but a young energizing candidate brings out even more young voters which would hopefully sway other races further down the ballot.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Come on guys, it's Hillary's turn!
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Will people from middle america ever vote for A) a woman, b) who is black, and c) from San Francisco?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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I quit guessing what the American people would do when they elected a black president twice and then elected a racist gameshow host.

But I think there are lessons to be learned from those three elections, namely that voters apparently value a level of authenticity that not a lot of politicians are capable of mustering these days.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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sancarlos wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:30 pm Will people from middle america ever vote for A) a woman, b) who is black, and c) from San Francisco?
Will the people energized by AOC and a move left show up for a former prosecutor?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:36 pm
sancarlos wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:30 pm Will people from middle america ever vote for A) a woman, b) who is black, and c) from San Francisco?
Will the people energized by AOC and a move left show up for a former prosecutor?
She was pretty progressive as a prosecutor (as prosecutors go). I remember right after she was elected in SF, she pissed off a lot of people for not asking for the death penalty for a convicted cop killer. She did it strictly on moral grounds - the guy was clearly guilty as hell, but she had said in her campaign that she was against capital punishment.

(And, nobody ever really gets put to death in California, they just linger on death row for decades, so she could have gone for the death penalty knowing he wouldn't have been killed, but didn't do that.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Or the Dems could choose not to run a former prosecutor. Seems easy?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Prosecutors aren't the problem. Prosecutors who abuse their office to fulfill a racist, classist, status-quo agenda are. I'm not going to dismiss any legitimate candidates -- which I think a sitting US Senator from the nation's largest state would qualify as legitimate -- until I hear what they have to say.

That even includes Bernie and y'all know how I feel about him. I really just want to listen to the messages for the time being and decide that way. What a concept.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Harris' own wikipedia page can be used against her. Its not "prosecutor" (maybe it is), its "prosecutor with her track record". Everyone should be disqualified for their past until someone emerges without a disqualifying past or else just re-do Clinton.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:35 pm Harris' own wikipedia page can be used against her. Its not "prosecutor" (maybe it is), its "prosecutor with her track record". Everyone should be disqualified for their past until someone emerges without a disqualifying past or else just re-do Clinton.
I read her Wikipedia page just now for the first time and if you're making the argument that it's bad that a prosecutor *checks notes* worked to convict criminals then I think you'll have to come up with a plan to re-think the entire system of American jurisprudence.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Or ... I can just say certain prior employment disqualifies one from leading a progressive party? I'm sure there are very nice and ethical investment bankers out there too.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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mister d wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:20 pm Or ... I can just say certain prior employment disqualifies one from leading a progressive party? I'm sure there are very nice and ethical investment bankers out there too.
I feel like you are way off on this one. I would love to see Liberal minority prosecutors. No better way to protect the rights of minorities than to have a Liberal minority prosecutor deciding which cases to seek convictions. While the criminal justice system is definitely skewed against minorities, that doesn't mean ALL prosecutors are part of the problem. It's damned necessary to have prosecutors, and you can hold Progressive Liberal ideals and still prosecute criminals.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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The Sybian wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:25 pm
mister d wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:20 pm Or ... I can just say certain prior employment disqualifies one from leading a progressive party? I'm sure there are very nice and ethical investment bankers out there too.
I feel like you are way off on this one. I would love to see Liberal minority prosecutors. No better way to protect the rights of minorities than to have a Liberal minority prosecutor deciding which cases to seek convictions. While the criminal justice system is definitely skewed against minorities, that doesn't mean ALL prosecutors are part of the problem. It's damned necessary to have prosecutors, and you can hold Progressive Liberal ideals and still prosecute criminals.
No, all prosecutors are bad. Check out this piece of shit. If he runs for a MO Senate seat in 12 years, there's no way he should be elected.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B »

brian wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:34 pm
The Sybian wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:25 pm
mister d wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:20 pm Or ... I can just say certain prior employment disqualifies one from leading a progressive party? I'm sure there are very nice and ethical investment bankers out there too.
I feel like you are way off on this one. I would love to see Liberal minority prosecutors. No better way to protect the rights of minorities than to have a Liberal minority prosecutor deciding which cases to seek convictions. While the criminal justice system is definitely skewed against minorities, that doesn't mean ALL prosecutors are part of the problem. It's damned necessary to have prosecutors, and you can hold Progressive Liberal ideals and still prosecute criminals.
No, all prosecutors are bad. Check out this piece of shit. If he runs for a MO Senate seat in 12 years, there's no way he should be elected.
Looks like I'm 99% with you. But tell me why this is a good thing:

"People who fail to pay child support will no longer be prosecuted, nor will failure to pay child support be used as the sole reason to revoke a person’s probation. For those who currently have a child support case pending, the cases will not be dropped, but they will be placed on hold."
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
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