2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

[DSafetyGuy]

I’ll allow it.

I appreciate you looking out for my health.

[brian]

Knock me over with a feather. Lucky for Joe Rogan he’s rich, white and an asshole. He’ll be fine.

[Johnnie]

Not defending that shit. On another podcast he mused about the Democrats switching Biden for Cuomo right now. No press about him on that though.

On the one hand this choice is absolutely ridiculous. But on the other, Americans in general are dumb as hell and vote based on feel rather than on facts. And people change their mind constantly in the meantime. If Joe's a one issue voter (absurd in it's own right) and his one issue is "ability to not look like he's mentally deteriorating in public while speaking" then I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

But here's what I also don't get. Liberals got apoplectic when he said he'd vote for Bernie in the primary. Now they are getting apoplectic because he'd rather have Trump. How dare you not immediately stand behind our establishment Democratic choice! And it's just a subtle dig a Bernie, honestly. Rogan has said he's independent and votes mostly Democrat.

Another thing, maybe tangentially related, we'll rail the Obama-Trump voter, but not the Rommey-Clinton one. Why? You can't have it both ways.

[Steve of phpBB]

We don’t rail the Romney Clinton voter because they ultimately got it right.

[Brontoburglar]

"Americans in general are dumb as hell" is the explanation for why Joe Rogan's podcast is so popular in the first place

[Joe K]

Not defending that shit. On another podcast he mused about the Democrats switching Biden for Cuomo right now. No press about him on that though.

On the one hand this choice is absolutely ridiculous. But on the other, Americans in general are dumb as hell and vote based on feel rather than on facts. And people change their mind constantly in the meantime. If Joe's a one issue voter (absurd in it's own right) and his one issue is "ability to not look like he's mentally deteriorating in public while speaking" then I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

Yeah, one takeaway Democrats/Trump opponents can draw from Rogan's commentary is that "Joe Rogan is a bad person." That's fine, but it's not going to persuade anyone who isn't already on your side. Another takeaway is that for potential voters who are genuinely undecided, Biden's obvious decline is going to be a real problem. Obviously it won't matter as much for "anyone but Trump" voters, which is a huge percentage of the Democratic Primary electorate that has been backing Biden. But it will matter for people whose votes are actually up for grabs. Rogan is just one guy, but he has a very large audience (his podcast gets 7-10 million downloads per episode) and I suspect his view here will become increasingly common.

[Brontoburglar]

yes, the view of preferring the fire department respond to the beeping smoke detector at one house while the house across the street burns to the ground

[Joe K]

yes, the view of preferring the fire department respond to the beeping smoke detector at one house while the house across the street burns to the ground

Right but people who think the house is burning down aren’t voting for Trump no matter what. It’s the voters who think the house isn’t as nice as it should be, and could use some improvements whose votes are actually up for grabs. If they don’t think Biden is up for the job of making it better, which is the view Rogan expressed, that’s a problem.

[Shirley]

Does Trump really look like he's NOT declining mentally?

[Brontoburglar]

yes, the view of preferring the fire department respond to the beeping smoke detector at one house while the house across the street burns to the ground

Right but people who think the house is burning down aren’t voting for Trump no matter what. It’s the voters who think the house isn’t as nice as it should be, and could use some improvements whose votes are actually up for grabs. If they don’t think Biden is up for the job of making it better, which is the view Rogan expressed, that’s a problem.

you buy the house with the beeping smoke detector and not the one that burned to the ground

y’all really gotta step back on this one

[mister d]

Except having a tangible flaw, whether it’s cognitive decline or sexual assault or a possible combination of the two, is punished on one side and not the other. A Democratic _______ is not the same as a Republican _______.

[Brontoburglar]

a democratic smoke detector beeping is not the same as a gop house burning, yes

[Joe K]

yes, the view of preferring the fire department respond to the beeping smoke detector at one house while the house across the street burns to the ground

Right but people who think the house is burning down aren’t voting for Trump no matter what. It’s the voters who think the house isn’t as nice as it should be, and could use some improvements whose votes are actually up for grabs. If they don’t think Biden is up for the job of making it better, which is the view Rogan expressed, that’s a problem.

you buy the house with the beeping smoke detector and not the one that burned to the ground

y’all really gotta step back on this one

I’m not voting for Trump. But the whole issue I have with your analogy is that it presupposes a framing that many voters don’t share even though everyone here does. If even a majority of voters thought the house was burning, Trump never gets elected in 2016. Nor would we be seeing polling like this:



Maybe Biden outperforms a generic Democrat. But that’s far from certain.

[mister d]

a democratic smoke detector beeping is not the same as a gop house burning, yes

Its a shit analogy unless you think houses can burn for 4-8 years. There's no immediate risk to the party because of Trump.

[Brontoburglar]

biden is the beeping smoke detector and trump is the burning house! take a step back!

[degenerasian]

Not defending that shit. On another podcast he mused about the Democrats switching Biden for Cuomo right now. No press about him on that though.

On the one hand this choice is absolutely ridiculous. But on the other, Americans in general are dumb as hell and vote based on feel rather than on facts. And people change their mind constantly in the meantime. If Joe's a one issue voter (absurd in it's own right) and his one issue is "ability to not look like he's mentally deteriorating in public while speaking" then I get it. It's dumb, but I get it.

Yeah, one takeaway Democrats/Trump opponents can draw from Rogan's commentary is that "Joe Rogan is a bad person." That's fine, but it's not going to persuade anyone who isn't already on your side. Another takeaway is that for potential voters who are genuinely undecided, Biden's obvious decline is going to be a real problem. Obviously it won't matter as much for "anyone but Trump" voters, which is a huge percentage of the Democratic Primary electorate that has been backing Biden. But it will matter for people whose votes are actually up for grabs. Rogan is just one guy, but he has a very large audience (his podcast gets 7-10 million downloads per episode) and I suspect his view here will become increasingly common.

The issue here is the guilt by association. Are Democrats always going to go insane if someone popular doesn't happen to take their side. As you said, Rogan as 7-10 million listeners, many of whom like Bernie and hate Trump. Is the DNC going to just cast them aside based solely on guilt by association?
The word deplorable turned the last election. That basket keeps getting bigger and bigger.

Trump will welcome those voters to his side.

[mister d]

[mister d]

Have to be honest, this doesn’t remind me of any other modern day elected official.

[EdRomero]

[Jerloma]

Biden can barely finish a sentence anymore and it's terrifying. For a party that wanted to play is safe, throwing someone out there with no real policy ideas incapable of even articulating himself sounds like an absolute disaster. You bought it though.

[The Sybian]

biden is the beeping smoke detector and trump is the burning house! take a step back!

While I agree with your political take, I can't tell if you are joking by sticking with this analogy. 35% or so of the voting population think Trump is a perfect, beautiful gilded mansion in tremendous condition, and many experts say it's like nothing anybody has ever seen before. Those voters aren't voting for the second coming of Christ over Trump. But there is a substantial population that may not love Trump, but still consider themselves Conservatives or Republicans. Maybe they would vote for a sensible Dem option because they see Trump as the ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon he is, but they prefer a Republican ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon to a Democrat ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon.

[While Biden isn't ignorant, he is clearly in a state of mental decline. At his peak, he was a loose cannon prone to saying stupid shit out of a lack of control, but now he often seems lost and confused and ramble incoherently. I'd vote for Hank the Angry Drunken Dwarf over Trump, so of course I'll vote Biden, but he has some huge fucking red flags and is instilling less than no confidence that he is up for the campaign and even less chance he is up for 4 years of serving as President.]

Just this morning I heard Stephen Dubner [Freakonomics] give a much better analogy of Trump on Joe Rogan's wildly popular podcast. He said he has friends who view Trump as a cigarette; a horrible delivery system for the otherwise useful drug nicotine. A lot of people who see Trump for what he is will still vote for him, because they prefer the outcomes despite the man. Would these people vote for Bernie? Fuck no, probably even less likely than voting for Biden, but if the Dems put up a more palatable option who exudes a sense of competence, maybe they would.

[A_B]

BERNIE OUT

[Jerloma]

This is where the party that did all they could to make sure he didn't get the nomination looks to him to unite the party. He'll try of course, but don't blame Bernie for any of his supporters that don't show up. What you don't understand is that for a lot of progressives, Bernie is the center. He was the compromise.

[P.D.X.]

Really want to design some campaign stickers but torn between "Creepy Old White Guy 2020" and "Senile Old White Guy 2020".

[Johnnie]

I'm probably still deployed through June so I couldn't even vote for him in the primary anyway.

But this sucks. Let's run it back with a moderate Democrat, guys.

I'm so fucking pumped to vote Biden. You have no idea. /s

[DSafetyGuy]

Really want to design some campaign stickers but torn between "Creepy Old White Guy 2020" and "Senile Old White Guy 2020".

Would you consider "Creepy Old White Guy 2020 vs Senile Old White Guy 2020"?

[P.D.X.]

Really want to design some campaign stickers but torn between "Creepy Old White Guy 2020" and "Senile Old White Guy 2020".

Would you consider "Creepy Old White Guy 2020 vs Senile Old White Guy 2020"?

It's a lot of text for a sticker but I like it. It's like Spy vs Spy.

[Joe K]

biden is the beeping smoke detector and trump is the burning house! take a step back!

While I agree with your political take, I can't tell if you are joking by sticking with this analogy. 35% or so of the voting population think Trump is a perfect, beautiful gilded mansion in tremendous condition, and many experts say it's like nothing anybody has ever seen before. Those voters aren't voting for the second coming of Christ over Trump. But there is a substantial population that may not love Trump, but still consider themselves Conservatives or Republicans. Maybe they would vote for a sensible Dem option because they see Trump as the ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon he is, but they prefer a Republican ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon to a Democrat ignorant pussy-grabbing buffoon.

[While Biden isn't ignorant, he is clearly in a state of mental decline. At his peak, he was a loose cannon prone to saying stupid shit out of a lack of control, but now he often seems lost and confused and ramble incoherently. I'd vote for Hank the Angry Drunken Dwarf over Trump, so of course I'll vote Biden, but he has some huge fucking red flags and is instilling less than no confidence that he is up for the campaign and even less chance he is up for 4 years of serving as President.]

Just this morning I heard Stephen Dubner [Freakonomics] give a much better analogy of Trump on Joe Rogan's wildly popular podcast. He said he has friends who view Trump as a cigarette; a horrible delivery system for the otherwise useful drug nicotine. A lot of people who see Trump for what he is will still vote for him, because they prefer the outcomes despite the man. Would these people vote for Bernie? Fuck no, probably even less likely than voting for Biden, but if the Dems put up a more palatable option who exudes a sense of competence, maybe they would.

This is a really good analogy as I think it reflects the mindset of intelligent Trump voters well. Prior to the Coronavirus crisis, I don't think there was any question that the vast majority of GOP voters would prefer outcomes under Trump to outcomes under Biden, Sanders or any other Democratic presidential candidate. Trump (with McConnell's help) has been super aggressive in appointing conservative federal judges, his administration has been more hostile to abortion rights, and the stock market had been doing well. So there wasn't going to be a "come to Jesus" moment.

Coronavirus gives Biden an opening but so far I haven't heard him say anything more concrete than "testing should be free" and "we need to listen to the experts." What about the millions of Americans who have lost their employer-provided health insurance? What about the countless small business owners who will be financially ruined? What are we going to do about Trump's predictable efforts to eliminate oversight over Treasury bailout moneys? These are really important questions and I'm not sure Biden is even capable of articulating a good answer.

[DSafetyGuy]

Really want to design some campaign stickers but torn between "Creepy Old White Guy 2020" and "Senile Old White Guy 2020".

Would you consider "Creepy Old White Guy 2020 vs Senile Old White Guy 2020"?

It's a lot of text for a sticker but I like it. It's like Spy vs Spy.

You could also stack "creepy", "vs", and "senile" on top of each other with "old white guy 2020" in a font approximately thrice the size.

[Joe K]

This is where the party that did all they could to make sure he didn't get the nomination looks to him to unite the party. He'll try of course, but don't blame Bernie for any of his supporters that don't show up. What you don't understand is that for a lot of progressives, Bernie is the center. He was the compromise.

If Trump gets re-elected, young Sanders voters will get blamed incessantly for not turning out in high enough numbers. Even though Biden has played as big a role as any Democratic politician in the trends that have made life worse for young people and famously said that he "has no empathy" for young people's struggles.

[mister d]

Recruit the center, demand the left.

[tennbengal]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

[Joe K]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

She’d be the best pick but Biden’s donors will push hard for Harris, Klobuchar or Whitmer. They are the three most likely IMO.

[govmentchedda]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

She’d be the best pick but Biden’s donors will push hard for Harris, Klobuchar or Whitmer. They are the three most likely IMO.

I don't know how he taps Warren, given her big thing is CFPB and his is banks and credit cards. Additionally, she hails from a state with a R governor.

I'd love to see Stacy Abrams as his VP, but I worry she doesn't have a long enough track record, and I damn sure don't want another Beto or Pete, who collapses under the bright lights.

[EdRomero]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

She’d be the best pick but Biden’s donors will push hard for Harris, Klobuchar or Whitmer. They are the three most likely IMO.

I don't know how he taps Warren, given her big thing is CFPB and his is banks and credit cards. Additionally, she hails from a state with a R governor.

What's the issue with Warren having a R governor? (and it's a Massachusetts R, so he's not a real R according to the rest of the country)

[Johnnie]

It's going to be Harris because that's what John Lewis suggested.

[degenerasian]

Not only has Biden not take advantage of the Coronavirus situation, Trump has gone left of him. The administration reimbursing hospitals for treating uninsured coronavirus patients is a de facto medical for all system in a small scale.

Biden instead continues to dismiss medicare for all calling it irrelevant. "Single payer will not solve that at all."

[Joe K]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

She’d be the best pick but Biden’s donors will push hard for Harris, Klobuchar or Whitmer. They are the three most likely IMO.

I don't know how he taps Warren, given her big thing is CFPB and his is banks and credit cards. Additionally, she hails from a state with a R governor.

What's the issue with Warren having a R governor? (and it's a Massachusetts R, so he's not a real R according to the rest of the country)

Because if Biden wins then the Dems lose a Senate seat when Baker picks a Republican to replace Warren. And the Dems controlling the Senate without Warren’s seat are slim.

[govmentchedda]

Pretty certain warren will be the VP nominee.

She’d be the best pick but Biden’s donors will push hard for Harris, Klobuchar or Whitmer. They are the three most likely IMO.

I don't know how he taps Warren, given her big thing is CFPB and his is banks and credit cards. Additionally, she hails from a state with a R governor.

What's the issue with Warren having a R governor? (and it's a Massachusetts R, so he's not a real R according to the rest of the country)

My understanding is that the governor would nominate whomever he chooses to complete her Senate term.

[degenerasian]

Dumb question. Why would Warren have to give up her Senate seat? I recall Lieberman not giving up his senate seat when it was on Gore's ticket. He still ran, and won.