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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:48 am
by brian
This is a good Fourth of July message.


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:45 pm
by rass
Obama’s retweet got more likes that Biden’s original tweet.

His level of investment/involvement (based on past precedence) will be fascinating as far as it’s possible to disassociate from all of this and just observe.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:35 pm
by Johnnie
Senator Tammy Duckworth is in serious contention for the VP selection.

Her story is remarkable. I think she'd be great as the choice.

(And it appears she has AOC level clapbacks.)


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:11 am
by A_B
Johnnie wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:35 pm Senator Tammy Duckworth is in serious contention for the VP selection.

Her story is remarkable. I think she'd be great as the choice.

(And it appears she has AOC level clapbacks.)

AOC hits more homers, but that's Mickey Mantle 643 feet out of the stadium level there.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:18 pm
by Johnnie

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:32 am
by tennbengal

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:57 pm
by Johnnie
It's always an overly loud few on Twitter that give the impression everyone is doing it. Always.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:03 pm
by Steve of phpBB
Johnnie wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:57 pm It's always an overly loud few on Twitter that give the impression everyone is doing it. Always.
Bingo.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:10 pm
by brian
Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:03 pm
Johnnie wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:57 pm It's always an overly loud few on Twitter that give the impression everyone is doing it. Always.
Bingo.
I'll concede this, but will add in Bernie's case that also includes his paid mouthpieces like Serota, etc which doesn't really do him any favors as far as burnishing the reputations of his supporters.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:35 pm
by govmentchedda
brian wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:10 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:03 pm
Johnnie wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:57 pm It's always an overly loud few on Twitter that give the impression everyone is doing it. Always.
Bingo.
I'll concede this, but will add in Bernie's case that also includes his paid mouthpieces like Serota, etc which doesn't really do him any favors as far as burnishing the reputations of his supporters.
Sirota always seemed miscast in his role on Bernie 2020.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:31 pm
by DSafetyGuy
Stunning development here.


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:55 pm
by mister d
He'd be called a grifter if people were interested in calling mayors of 4th rate cities who decide to run for the presidency in order to further their personal career's grifters.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:05 pm
by duff
mister d wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:55 pm He'd be called a grifter if people were interested in calling mayors of 4th rate cities who decide to run for the presidency in order to further their personal career's grifters.
South Bend is more of a 5th rate city.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:07 pm
by Johnnie


I don't really believe that, though.

From the same poll:


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:50 pm
by DSafetyGuy
Convert to electoral college, thank you.

(Not you, Johnnie, but you knew that.)

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:56 pm
by A_B
Cook and 270 to win both have Biden with 278 in current projections.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:57 pm
by DSafetyGuy
A_B wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:56 pm Cook and 270 to win both have Biden with 278 in current projections.
Obviously, they're different polls, but that's a lot different than Biden +15.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:58 pm
by A_B
Sure because a massive win in California swings percentages in polls more than a narrow one in Wisconsin. Just adding the numbers I’ve seen.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:59 pm
by mister d
Being 8 over in the midst of all this seems pretty horrific?

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:01 pm
by DSafetyGuy
A_B wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:58 pm Sure because a massive win in California swings percentages in polls more than a narrow one in Wisconsin. Just adding the numbers I’ve seen.
Exactly. My post responding to the tweet was just a reminder about the sort of thing. And I appreciate you making your earlier post for the same reason.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:03 pm
by Steve of phpBB
mister d wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:59 pm Being 8 over in the midst of all this seems pretty horrific?
Cook has Biden ahead 279-188, with 71 in the "tossup" category. Arizona and Florida are both considered tossups in that analysis.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/cook-poli ... al-ratings

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:03 pm
by Johnnie
DSafetyGuy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:57 pm
A_B wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:56 pm Cook and 270 to win both have Biden with 278 in current projections.
Obviously, they're different polls, but that's a lot different than Biden +15.
Here's 20 electoral votes, if this holds.



But here are all the swing states: (PA is only showing +8 for Biden though)


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:08 pm
by mister d
Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:03 pmCook has Biden ahead 279-188, with 71 in the "tossup" category. Arizona and Florida are both considered tossups in that analysis.
Oh. That makes me feel a lot better.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:08 pm
by DSafetyGuy
So, this is an interesting piece of polling data:


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:53 pm
by Johnnie
Seeing "Arizona" in the same line as "Democratic" is still weird.

Trump got 91k votes more than Hillary and won by 3.5%, but still. It's weird.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:29 pm
by HaulCitgo
Georgia toss up. We are coming for you mf.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:37 am
by brian
Winning the Senate back is critical to getting some version of this passed:


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:28 am
by degenerasian
All this is already on Moscow Mitch's desk. There are a few issues with Favreau's plan, mostly cost, but overall it is correct.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:31 am
by Johnnie
Last I checked, Joe Biden still hasn't gone on any Crooked Media podcast during his run up to being the Democratic nominee. All other Democratic candidates for president did. I think he was interviewed before he announced his candidacy 2 years ago.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:01 am
by DSafetyGuy
I don't think there's anything to be gained from it. Huge difference between being a candidate and being the candidate.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm
by Brontoburglar
serious question ... who is Joe Biden going to convince to vote for him with a crooked media podcast appearance?

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:54 am
by tennbengal
This is a really interesting read with Lincoln Project answering some of the concerns raised over their ulterior motives.


Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:41 am
by mister d

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:49 am
by Nonlinear FC
Brontoburglar wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm serious question ... who is Joe Biden going to convince to vote for him with a crooked media podcast appearance?
PodSave is doing a TON of work around GOTV efforts. The value of going on that show is to further energize the foot soldiers doing a lot of the work necessary to win in swing states.

It certainly won't hurt anything and the fact of the matter is he should be maximizing his exposure on friendly podcasts.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:57 am
by Steve of phpBB
mister d wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:41 am
Yes. That's fantastic.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:13 pm
by The Sybian
Nonlinear FC wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:49 am
Brontoburglar wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm serious question ... who is Joe Biden going to convince to vote for him with a crooked media podcast appearance?
PodSave is doing a TON of work around GOTV efforts. The value of going on that show is to further energize the foot soldiers doing a lot of the work necessary to win in swing states.

It certainly won't hurt anything and the fact of the matter is he should be maximizing his exposure on friendly podcasts.
It's a really interesting dynamic, because the PodSaves guys will do what they can to make Biden look good, yet they frequently trash him for not coming on. I still think it seems weird how little we see of Biden. I respect he isn't making public appearances and holding rallies, but I don't see his ads and I see very few interviews of him. PodSaves organize volunteer groups to get out the vote, so a Biden appearance could get more volunteers fired up, but I think it runs the danger of deflating interest. Broken record here, but Biden just doesn't inspire any confidence in me. The less I see of him, the better I feel voting for him. I'm consciously avoiding asking myself questions. I have a Conservative friend who completely sees Trump for what he is, and is looking for a reason to vote for Biden. He sends me all the articles from Conservative sites asking questions of Biden, and I don't have good answers. Yes, I'm voting for him no matter what, but I don't think he is up to the task, and he has some really shitty policies, ideas, gaffes, sexual harassment... The less I see him, the more I like voting for him.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:32 pm
by Johnnie
It really just feels like a group project where there will inevitably be the one person who skates to a passing grade off the backs of everyone else putting in the work.

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:37 pm
by Johnnie
mister d wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:41 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:19 pm
by tennbengal

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:50 pm
by HaulCitgo
Goodness. If that is anything close to accurate Trump is getting dangerously close to losing the Republican backing. He's probably got til Sept 1 before the game shifts to control of the senate. Even a vaccine wouldn't save him and truthfully whether him or not they are doing that very very right so far.