2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by DSafetyGuy » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:08 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:50 pm
Goodness. If that is anything close to accurate Trump is getting dangerously close to losing the Republican backing. He's probably got til Sept 1 before the game shifts to control of the senate. Even a vaccine wouldn't save him and truthfully whether him or not they are doing that very very right so far.
That would be right after their convention.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:20 pm

The way things are trending if Trump doesn't see a fairly major reversing in polling (something that gets him to within let's say 7 or so points in the RCP or 538 seven-day rolling averages), Labor Day Weekend is the time to be on the lookout for defectors en masse. The smart pols know the reality of the situation (Biden being a better liked candidate than Hillary and not having any serious candidates for an October surprise like Comey's re-opening of the FBI "investigation" into Hillary) and know there's likely no way Trump's making up 5 points in polling at that point (just to get him to the 2-3 percent down in the national polls he'd need to be to make it a dogfight in the electoral college.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by HaulCitgo » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:07 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:08 pm
HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:50 pm
Goodness. If that is anything close to accurate Trump is getting dangerously close to losing the Republican backing. He's probably got til Sept 1 before the game shifts to control of the senate. Even a vaccine wouldn't save him and truthfully whether him or not they are doing that very very right so far.
That would be right after their convention.
What convention?

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by DSafetyGuy » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:25 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:07 pm
DSafetyGuy wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:08 pm
HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:50 pm
Goodness. If that is anything close to accurate Trump is getting dangerously close to losing the Republican backing. He's probably got til Sept 1 before the game shifts to control of the senate. Even a vaccine wouldn't save him and truthfully whether him or not they are doing that very very right so far.
That would be right after their convention.
What convention?
Can't believe after all this shit, the RNC is the one that cancels the in-person portion.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:18 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:07 pm
DSafetyGuy wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:08 pm
HaulCitgo wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:50 pm
Goodness. If that is anything close to accurate Trump is getting dangerously close to losing the Republican backing. He's probably got til Sept 1 before the game shifts to control of the senate. Even a vaccine wouldn't save him and truthfully whether him or not they are doing that very very right so far.
That would be right after their convention.
What convention?
Ha!!!!
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:08 pm

This party represents the left half of the country and definitely cares more about their voters than their corporate donors:
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:42 am

There is a big difference between "oppose legalizing marijuana," and the truth, which is voting for a platform to decriminalize recreational use, legalize medical, and allow States to to determine whether to legalize recreation use. I just fell for a click-baity headline saying Dem platform opposes legalizing marijuana, and it pisses me. They just decided not to go with a platform of Federal legalization, they aren't rolling back State laws, like many Republicans want. Subtle wording difference, enormous real world impact difference. I wish they went with Federal legalization as a platform, but the primary voters selected Biden, so that choice went out the window.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:08 am

I fail to see the big difference. They voted status quo which makes legalization a non-starter in many states (and continues the slow path even in solid blue states like NJ) and goes strongly against their base and even the public as a whole. Its obviously not the biggest deal there, but if the argument is that the establishment cares more about their (healthcare) donors than they do about the voters, its a salient point.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:36 am

On friday, Cook Political moved Florida to lean Democratic. I hadn't seen it until today. They also moved a bunch of house races a step towards democrats (Either from lean Red to toss up or toss up to lean D)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:42 am

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:08 am
I fail to see the big difference. They voted status quo which makes legalization a non-starter in many states (and continues the slow path even in solid blue states like NJ) and goes strongly against their base and even the public as a whole. Its obviously not the biggest deal there, but if the argument is that the establishment cares more about their (healthcare) donors than they do about the voters, its a salient point.
They failed to make Federal legalization a platform issue, so in the 8 states with no legalized weed, I guess there is no practical difference, but in the other 42 states and DC... Opposing legalization means actively working to make it illegal, so in the 11 states (including DC) with legal recreation use, it would mean overturning those laws or enforcing Federal laws. The platform, I believe, still calls for decriminalizing and allowing the 42 states with at least some legalized uses to continue. Again, I'm all for federally legalizing and I'm disappointed, but saying the platform "opposes legalization" is a flat out misstatement.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:55 pm

Democratic Party Platform wrote:Democrats believe no one should be in prison solely because they use drugs. Democrats will decriminalize marijuana use and reschedule it through executive action on the federal level. We will support legalization of medical marijuana, and believe states should be able to make their own decisions about recreational use. The Justice Department should not launch federal prosecutions of conduct that is legal at the state level. All past criminal convictions for cannabis use should be automatically expunged. And rather than involving the criminal justice system, Democrats support increased use of drug courts, harm reduction interventions, and treatment diversion programs for those struggling with substance use disorders.
They're just like the Republicans!
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:59 pm

Who stands to lose if marijuana is fully legal and widespread accessible? Or, phrased another way, who lobbies against this?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by BSF21 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:02 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:59 pm
Who stands to lose if marijuana is fully legal and widespread accessible? Or, phrased another way, who lobbies against this?
Pharma and the GEO Group mostly.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:07 pm

The left side of the country overwhelmingly favors legalization. The left side of the country strongly favors M4A. The DNC opposes (or doesn't actively fight for, if you like that phrasing better) both.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by BSF21 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:09 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:07 pm
The left side of the country overwhelmingly favors legalization. The left side of the country strongly favors M4A. The DNC opposes (or doesn't actively fight for, if you like that phrasing better) both.

image.png
Could you put that graph in less-binary terms? My feeble brain is struggling for enlightenment over here.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:09 pm

Easier to decipher:
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm

until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:18 pm

It would turn out to be a real shame if the Dems were just trying to not rock the boat until the Nazi is defeated and out of office.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:07 pm
The left side of the country overwhelmingly favors legalization. The left side of the country strongly favors M4A.
The Dems are running to govern the entire country, not just the left side.

Regarding the left side's view on Medicare for All, don't the 2020 primary results speak for themselves?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm

P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:31 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
From which position is it easier to implement steps toward more desired policies?

a) being the majority in the government
b) being the minority in the government

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:33 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
Shouldn't the Dems actively oppose the for-profit food industry too? Clothes? Housing?

Anyway, even M4A doesn't do away with the for-profit healthcare industry. Just the health *insurance* industry.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by govmentchedda » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:49 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:33 pm
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
Shouldn't the Dems actively oppose the for-profit food industry too? Clothes? Housing?

Anyway, even M4A doesn't do away with the for-profit healthcare industry. Just the health *insurance* industry.
Food? Probably. We need to greatly reduce our meat intake and make our meat farms infinitely safer than they are.

Clothes? Harder to say as most are not manufactured here, therefore less oversight of factories, but there's a lot wrong with a lot of clothing industry.

Housing? You're kidding right? We need major changes to counteract years of redlining and other systemic issues.

Let me add...Capitalism? Yes, we need to slow the consumer cycle greatly.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:49 pm

P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:31 pm
From which position is it easier to implement steps toward more desired policies?

a) being the majority in the government
b) being the minority in the government
Image
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:50 pm

govmentchedda wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:49 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:33 pm
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
Shouldn't the Dems actively oppose the for-profit food industry too? Clothes? Housing?

Anyway, even M4A doesn't do away with the for-profit healthcare industry. Just the health *insurance* industry.
Food? Probably. We need to greatly reduce our meat intake and make our meat farms infinitely safer than they are.

Clothes? Harder to say as most are not manufactured here, therefore less oversight of factories, but there's a lot wrong with a lot of clothing industry.

Housing? You're kidding right? We need major changes to counteract years of redlining and other systemic issues.

Let me add...Capitalism? Yes, we need to slow the consumer cycle greatly.
Sure, all of those things could use more regulation. But is anyone seriously proposing that the government take over those industries, removing them from for-profit companies?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by govmentchedda » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:57 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:50 pm
govmentchedda wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:49 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:33 pm
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm
until the dems are actively delivering eighths of kush door-to-door they're total sellouts
Until the Dems are actively opposing the pharmaceutical and for-profit healthcare industry, they're total sellouts.
Shouldn't the Dems actively oppose the for-profit food industry too? Clothes? Housing?

Anyway, even M4A doesn't do away with the for-profit healthcare industry. Just the health *insurance* industry.
Food? Probably. We need to greatly reduce our meat intake and make our meat farms infinitely safer than they are.

Clothes? Harder to say as most are not manufactured here, therefore less oversight of factories, but there's a lot wrong with a lot of clothing industry.

Housing? You're kidding right? We need major changes to counteract years of redlining and other systemic issues.

Let me add...Capitalism? Yes, we need to slow the consumer cycle greatly.
Sure, all of those things could use more regulation. But is anyone seriously proposing that the government take over those industries, removing them from for-profit companies?
Agreed, but I'd argue that the healthcare industry is in a more immediate fucked up state.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:57 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:49 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:31 pm
From which position is it easier to implement steps toward more desired policies?

a) being the majority in the government
b) being the minority in the government
Image
Thought experiment. You get to choose:

1) Going into an election against a nazi incumbent with a milquetoast, 'centrist' democrat who's polling 15 points ahead

2) Going into an election against a nazi incumbent with a progressive democrat who checks off all your wishlist but who's polling dead even

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:18 pm

Pretty sure you know my stance there, but I'd add that we've seen Trump take on a milquetoast centrist in the past and I don't think either of us were happy with the result. I'd also add that 538 has Biden +8.2 today, down from his high of +9.6. Clinton was +5 most of the way through August touching +7 in October. Maybe safety lies in between those two numbers, maybe not. I personally don't trust national polling today to matter versus the EC in 3 months, I don't trust the DNC to do anything to gain votes over the next 100 days, I don't trust Biden to not spectacularly or unspectacularly fuck-up and I don't trust any part of a Biden campaign or Biden base to actively fight if and when the election goes sideways. The last piece being something that I think will grow over time. The DNC and the establishment has proven over and over they're not up for a real fight and that they can't assert themselves from a minority position. If the election is stolen or contested and the Senate doesn't flip, why would anyone trust them to win that battle? If we are facing a contested election or transition, even if both hypotheticals would mean no more Trump, I think the streets would look very different if the stakes were President Sanders versus President Biden.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:25 pm

Apples and Oranges on 16 vs. 20 on the polling. Trump was an unknown and TON of voters hated Hillary and basically said "how bad can it be" with Trump.

Well, shit... Pretty fucking bad.

=-=-==

That said, I'm pretty radical when it comes to drugs and I completely agree Biden and the "establishment" is very VERY wrong on this issue. I live out here in the lily white burbs. I'd say way over half of my late 40/early 50 year old crowd is imbibing some form of pot. And this state isn't even fully legal.

Fuck, I'd legalize MDMA tomorrow. That shit is huge for PTSD, studies are finding.

And as Mr. D is pointing out, and I totally agree, the reason a lot of stuff got put on Schedule 1 was a mixture of hysteria in the 80s, but more importantly opportunism from the Drug Industry.

Fuck those guys. Pure evil. As bad as the Tobacco Industry. Maybe worse.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:39 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:18 pm
Pretty sure you know my stance there, but I'd add that we've seen Trump take on a milquetoast centrist in the past and I don't think either of us were happy with the result. I'd also add that 538 has Biden +8.2 today, down from his high of +9.6. Clinton was +5 most of the way through August touching +7 in October. Maybe safety lies in between those two numbers, maybe not. I personally don't trust national polling today to matter versus the EC in 3 months, I don't trust the DNC to do anything to gain votes over the next 100 days, I don't trust Biden to not spectacularly or unspectacularly fuck-up and I don't trust any part of a Biden campaign or Biden base to actively fight if and when the election goes sideways. The last piece being something that I think will grow over time. The DNC and the establishment has proven over and over they're not up for a real fight and that they can't assert themselves from a minority position. If the election is stolen or contested and the Senate doesn't flip, why would anyone trust them to win that battle? If we are facing a contested election or transition, even if both hypotheticals would mean no more Trump, I think the streets would look very different if the stakes were President Sanders versus President Biden.
Let's take all the details out.

You get your candidate in a coin-flip against the nazi.

Or...

You get an establishment dem who has a 65% chance of beating the nazi.


And you're selecting for the entire country. Which do you take?

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:53 pm

A coinflip versus a +15 is 50% versus 57.5%.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:17 pm

Non-answer noted.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:20 pm

According to the American voters, the last election featured a moderate against a liberal, and the moderate won.

Now Trump is an authoritarian conservative running against a moderate. And his attacks aren’t getting anywhere (yet) because people see Biden as moderate and reasonable and responsible.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:27 pm

P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:17 pm
Non-answer noted.
I hope the math correction would be noted, given its a pretty big swing? But yes, I'd absolutely take Sanders 100 out of 200 over Biden 113 out of 200.

I guess I'm equally curious if "blue no matter who" means you'd prefer Manchin at 58.5% over Biden at 57.5%? Would you take a Biden-Romney ticket at 59% over Biden-Duckworth at 57%?
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:18 pm
Pretty sure you know my stance there, but I'd add that we've seen Trump take on a milquetoast centrist in the past and I don't think either of us were happy with the result. I'd also add that 538 has Biden +8.2 today, down from his high of +9.6. Clinton was +5 most of the way through August touching +7 in October. Maybe safety lies in between those two numbers, maybe not. I personally don't trust national polling today to matter versus the EC in 3 months, I don't trust the DNC to do anything to gain votes over the next 100 days, I don't trust Biden to not spectacularly or unspectacularly fuck-up and I don't trust any part of a Biden campaign or Biden base to actively fight if and when the election goes sideways. The last piece being something that I think will grow over time. The DNC and the establishment has proven over and over they're not up for a real fight and that they can't assert themselves from a minority position. If the election is stolen or contested and the Senate doesn't flip, why would anyone trust them to win that battle? If we are facing a contested election or transition, even if both hypotheticals would mean no more Trump, I think the streets would look very different if the stakes were President Sanders versus President Biden.
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?

And if the DNC is unwilling to fight to win an election, how the hell did they beat Sanders?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:31 pm

Because the DNC had control. They didn't have to fight an equal or god forbid uphill battle.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:36 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?
She was not, but Trump's current 41.9% is actually 0.1% higher than he was on election day 2016.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by A_B » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:39 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:36 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?
She was not, but Trump's current 41.9% is actually 0.1% higher than he was on election day 2016.
And as the incumbent that should scare him.
The wife just accidentally called you. “Accidentally”. Sorry

P.D.X.
Walter Sobchak
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:46 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:27 pm
P.D.X. wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:17 pm
Non-answer noted.
I hope the math correction would be noted, given its a pretty big swing? But yes, I'd absolutely take Sanders 100 out of 200 over Biden 113 out of 200.
I did note that you 'corrected' my hypothetical. The disparity was intentional.

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Steve of phpBB
Walter Sobchak
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:03 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:36 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?
She was not, but Trump's current 41.9% is actually 0.1% higher than he was on election day 2016.
Do you know what Hillary’s and Trump’s polling percentages were at this point in 2016? I couldn’t find a link to the 2016 tracker over time.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

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