2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Okay . . . let's try this again.

Moderators: Shirley, brian, ZMan, Sabo

duff
The Big Lebowski
Posts: 1900
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:36 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by duff » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:10 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:03 pm
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:36 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?
She was not, but Trump's current 41.9% is actually 0.1% higher than he was on election day 2016.
Do you know what Hillary’s and Trump’s polling percentages were at this point in 2016? I couldn’t find a link to the 2016 tracker over time.
Why does it matter? Everyone needs to stop with the 2016 comparison to 2020. Different race all together. We know even more about Trump. That alone should be what we are fighting against. And enough about Bernie not getting the nomination. He didn't. Move on to the next primary. Hopefully we get someone with Bernie's policies on the ticket in the next four to eight years. That would be great. But those changes need to start at the local and state levels. Make the stand there. And the blue no matter who applies only to the presidential race against Trump. Not anyone else. And those that were in the primaries. So don't throw Manchin in the mix. Or Romney.
To quote both Bruce Prichard and Tony Schiavone, "Fuck Duff Meltzer."

User avatar
Brontoburglar
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 4507
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:20 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Brontoburglar » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:16 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:03 pm
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:36 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Biden is at 50% in the 538 tracker. Was Hillary ever that high?
She was not, but Trump's current 41.9% is actually 0.1% higher than he was on election day 2016.
Do you know what Hillary’s and Trump’s polling percentages were at this point in 2016? I couldn’t find a link to the 2016 tracker over time.
Image
"We're not the smartest people in the world. We go down the straightaway and turn left. That's literally what we do." -- Clint Bowyer

User avatar
The Sybian
The Dude
Posts: 11880
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:36 am
Location: Working in the Crap Part of Jersey

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by The Sybian » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:18 pm

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:07 pm
The left side of the country overwhelmingly favors legalization. The left side of the country strongly favors M4A. The DNC opposes (or doesn't actively fight for, if you like that phrasing better) both.
The DNC serves their corporate overlords, not the people. While they are better than the RNC, both are corporate shills, but the Dems throw a bone to the people every now and then. Dems talk a good game of caring about policies that help people, and some actually mean it, but the nature of the corporate backed two party system requires the DNC to sell their power to big money interests in order to fund campaigns. It's such a shitty system, and until we take money out of politics, it won't change.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
-Pruitt

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:23 pm

That's not entirely true, but the other path has been declared a non-starter because only certain people get concessions in return for votes ; )
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
govmentchedda
The Dude
Posts: 7630
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 4:36 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by govmentchedda » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:58 pm

I took a two hour nap and cried during parks and Rec. it was awesome and terrifying.

Johnnie
The Dude
Posts: 11206
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:31 pm
Location: ABQ, BITCH!

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie » Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:22 pm

Huh. Shocking.

mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.

User avatar
Steve of phpBB
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 4511
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:44 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:36 pm

Johnnie wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:22 pm
Huh. Shocking.

Is that supposed to be a pro-Bloomberg story (and response) or anti-Bloomberg?

If all they have is "some say he should spend more," that really doesn't seem like much of a story.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:44 pm

I'm not seeing how you can kill the guy for spending $350M. No one's ever going to be happy with where it goes.
Image

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:49 pm

Bloomberg has already spent well over $350 million for Democrats this cycle, according to his team, including the following investments:
  • $275 million in anti-Trump ads during his primary campaign
  • $35 million for a digital and data platform he gives to Democratic campaigns at cost.
  • $18 million transferred from his campaign to the Democratic Party.
  • $10 million to House Majority PAC, the lead outside group backing House Democrats.
  • $5 million to Fair Fight, the voting rights group led by Stacey Abrams.
  • $2 million to Collective Future, focused on registering Black voters in key states.
  • $2 million to Swing Left, which supports Democratic volunteer efforts.
  • $500,000 to Voto Latino, focused on registering young Latino and Hispanic voters.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
govmentchedda
The Dude
Posts: 7630
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 4:36 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by govmentchedda » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:50 pm

You sure that last bit wasn't from Miguel Bloombito?
I took a two hour nap and cried during parks and Rec. it was awesome and terrifying.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:51 pm

Even if you exclude the first two items (which aren't nothing), that's still about $37M in spending for some pretty good causes.
Image

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:53 pm

When you are worth $54,900 million, spending $37.5 million isn't "whatever it takes".
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:57 pm

Just spitballing here but is it possible he's waiting to spend more money closer to the election?
Image

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:58 pm

Sure. Is it also possible he never had any real concerns here beyond ensuring the Dems didn't go left?
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

P.D.X.
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 3579
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 12:31 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by P.D.X. » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:25 pm

would you prefer he spent nothing?

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:40 pm

I'd prefer if people like him weren't given massive exposure for self-serving comments like they'll "spend whatever it takes" to defeat Trump then get defended when its pointed out his non-personal contributions are the equivalent of someone with a net worth of $100K donating just shy of $70.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
Nonlinear FC
The Dude
Posts: 5908
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:09 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:42 pm

I'll take Bloomberg's millions of Howard Schultz's fuckery.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:42 pm



Not great?
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
Steve of phpBB
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 4511
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:44 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm

mister d wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:49 pm
Bloomberg has already spent well over $350 million for Democrats this cycle, according to his team, including the following investments:
  • $275 million in anti-Trump ads during his primary campaign
  • $35 million for a digital and data platform he gives to Democratic campaigns at cost.
  • $18 million transferred from his campaign to the Democratic Party.
  • $10 million to House Majority PAC, the lead outside group backing House Democrats.
  • $5 million to Fair Fight, the voting rights group led by Stacey Abrams.
  • $2 million to Collective Future, focused on registering Black voters in key states.
  • $2 million to Swing Left, which supports Democratic volunteer efforts.
  • $500,000 to Voto Latino, focused on registering young Latino and Hispanic voters.
It seems to me that the $275 million should never have been included, since it was money he spent during his own primary. I have no idea about the $35 million for the data platform, whether that was something he did for himself anyway, or what it means that he "gives" the platform to Dem campaigns "at cost."

The other stuff, the dollar amount isn't that impressive for a multibillionaire, but on the other hand, the election is a long way away, it isn't clear that a lot of additional spending is needed beyond what the DNC and campaigns already have, and it certainly appears that he's spending the money mostly the right way, for useful things that will pay dividends beyond this November.

This is why I was serious when I said that if the worst they can tag him with is "some say he should be spending more," he's probably not doing that bad of a job right now.

But let's see how things look in a few months.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:10 pm

The worst I would tag him on (in this instance) is “his entire campaign was an unveiled threat that the Dem candidate better not be left of what’s he’s comfortable with or else”.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
Steve of phpBB
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 4511
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:44 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:23 pm

mister d wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:10 pm
The worst I would tag him on (in this instance) is “his entire campaign was an unveiled threat that the Dem candidate better not be left of what’s he’s comfortable with or else”.
Sounds fair.

That pollster, Change Research, is rated C- by 538. And they have Biden up by 9 nationally, with Trump having a 49% "strong disapproval" rating in those battleground states and a 51% strong disapproval nationwide. https://www.changeresearch.com/post/sta ... nd-wave-10

Change Research's Pennsylvania result (Biden +2) was based on 382 likely voters. Yesterday, Morning Consult released a poll in Pennsylvania with more than 2000 likely voters, and the result was Biden +7 (and at 50%), plus leading in most other swing and battleground states (like Georgia and Texas). https://morningconsult.com/form/july-pr ... e-polling/
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:27 pm

That’s better. I have no confidence of actually flipping anything in the sound so all those northern non-coastal states seem imperative.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:32 pm

mister d wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:27 pm
That’s better. I have no confidence of actually flipping anything in the sound so all those northern non-coastal states seem imperative.
I'd say Arizona is probably about 80-90 percent likely to flip. And they can't really pull too many vote-rigging/vote location shenanigans since Maricopa County has Republicans all over the place as well.

I don't feel good about Florida or North Carolina in the final analysis, so I agree -- the road the winning seems to be taking PA, MI and WI. The first two seem like safe bets at this point, the latter -- I dunno.
Image

HaulCitgo
The Big Lebowski
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:07 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by HaulCitgo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:36 pm

Landslide dudes. Book it just don't say it.

User avatar
govmentchedda
The Dude
Posts: 7630
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 4:36 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by govmentchedda » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:01 pm

HaulCitgo wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:36 pm
Landslide dudes. Book it just don't say it.
Let's fucking hope so.
I took a two hour nap and cried during parks and Rec. it was awesome and terrifying.

User avatar
Steve of phpBB
Walter Sobchak
Posts: 4511
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:44 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Steve of phpBB » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 am

More on Pennsylvania.


I do think Florida and North Carolina are both winnable, as well as Arizona. Wisconsin and even Minnesota make me nervous. Those are places with just enough minorities to activate White Fear but not enough to overcome it.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.

HaulCitgo
The Big Lebowski
Posts: 1957
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:07 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by HaulCitgo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:56 am

Biden can broaden the map a lot if he wants to. Georgia. Texas. Probably others. Maybe not likely but those are states that Dems should be investing tons of cash for both senate goals and long term goals. Totally aside from Biden, Dems must have a plan to challenge in Georgia and Texas. Would change electoral college politics entirely if those states are in play going forward and the demographics support it. If they don't contest in an election where they have a shot they've missed a big opportunity. If nothing else that infrastructure and momentum would pay off 10x even with losses.

"I take no responsibility." [Loop]

If that's not playing 500x a day in Texas and Georgia the Dems have failed terribly.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:03 am

Steve of phpBB wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 am
I do think Florida and North Carolina are both winnable, as well as Arizona. Wisconsin and even Minnesota make me nervous. Those are places with just enough minorities to activate White Fear but not enough to overcome it.
If you're worried at all about White Fear, then Florida and North Carolina are absolutely unwinnable then (relative to Wisconsin and Minnesota).
Image

Johnnie
The Dude
Posts: 11206
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:31 pm
Location: ABQ, BITCH!

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Johnnie » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:08 am

So, who are our final guesses to who the VP is going to be?

I'm bad at predicting, so let's go with Susan Rice.

I'd much rather Duckworth or Warren, but Rice send to have pulled ahead in recent days if my cursory scanning of headlines is any indication.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:11 am

I know nothing of Rice but I like that she wouldn't be siphoning off a mayoral or congressional seat.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
Nonlinear FC
The Dude
Posts: 5908
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:09 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:17 am

Thing 1: Just a reminder, when you see states like Texas and Arizona as flippable, it means the GOP has to spend money on races it doesn't traditionally have to worry about. That's a very good thing. Even if we're pessimistic about the outcome, the fact that they are in play is a major problem for the RNC.

Thing 2: Biden signaled he wants to have a good working relationship (existing) with his Veep. Heavy thumb on the scale for Rice, from what I've been reading.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:41 am

mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:18 pm
If we are facing a contested election or transition, even if both hypotheticals would mean no more Trump, I think the streets would look very different if the stakes were President Sanders versus President Biden.
So I didn't expect to self-quote this so early, but seems like its going to become a massive concern already. When your entire strategy is quietly back into a win versus aggressively defeating, are you going to have the numbers to fight if a fight is needed?
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:45 am

mister d wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:41 am
mister d wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:18 pm
If we are facing a contested election or transition, even if both hypotheticals would mean no more Trump, I think the streets would look very different if the stakes were President Sanders versus President Biden.
So I didn't expect to self-quote this so early, but seems like its going to become a massive concern already. When your entire strategy is quietly back into a win versus aggressively defeating, are you going to have the numbers to fight if a fight is needed?
Are you suggesting that Democrats will just "accept" an obviously fraudulent attempt by Trump to claim an election he didn't win with Biden as the candidate, but not if Sanders was?

That's honestly about the stupidest thing I've ever heard.
Image

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 am

If you're referring to Dem leadership, I absolutely don't think they have it in them to fight and win. But I'm referring to the country as a whole; Trump stealing from Bernie would draw a reaction that Trump stealing from Biden would not.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:51 am

mister d wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 am
If you're referring to Dem leadership, I absolutely don't think they have it in them to fight and win. But I'm referring to the country as a whole; Trump stealing from Bernie would draw a reaction that Trump stealing from Biden would not.
That's fucking stupid.

ETA:

Sorry, that's fucking stupid.
Image

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:55 am

At some point people are going to realize that catering to the center and obligating the left has consequences.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:58 am

And just so this doesn't take too long, this is where you should ask me what I've done to personally risk myself for the better of the country, I tell you "absolutely nothing, because I've considered everything and my immediate concern is my 2 kids at home" and you follow that string until we're atleast close to the same place.
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

User avatar
brian
The Dude
Posts: 21049
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:52 am
Location: Home, watching the NHL Playoffs

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by brian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:03 am

I'm not shitting on you, I'm just saying if you think people are going to accept another four years of Trump because of who the candidate is, that's fucking stupid. That's literally all I'm saying.
Image

User avatar
Nonlinear FC
The Dude
Posts: 5908
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:09 pm

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by Nonlinear FC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:07 am

I think a lot of you guys really don't understand how pissed off a vast majority of Americans have been since around January of 2017. Like, every day another thing pisses them off, to the point that they have to stop paying attention because it's not healthy.

I'm with Citgo. As many of you probably know. I think this is going to be an absolute landslide.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.

User avatar
mister d
The Dude
Posts: 19096
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Post by mister d » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:11 am

brian wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:03 am
I'm not shitting on you, I'm just saying if you think people are going to accept another four years of Trump because of who the candidate is, that's fucking stupid. That's literally all I'm saying.
Do you need a list of the things people have accepted over the last 3.5 years that they (and I) would have swore we'd never accept if asked in 2014? When is the last time this board has even talked about the kids imprisoned without their parents at the border?
rass wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
I'm definitely known as "the boy who cried penis" in town.

Post Reply