The Swamp

Ryan wrote:How many head coaches have there been in the last 20 years? How many would almost everyone agree is actually good? Like 5 or 10? It's extremely rare and probably 75% luck.

Bill Belichick
Tom Coughlin
Andy Reid

So far so good:
Doug Pederson
Sean McVay

Tony Dungy
Mike Tomlin

Harbaughs

Pete Carroll

Sean Payton
Mike Zimmer

Please take care to not muddle the original point (most everyone would agree they're good) with your own personal thoughts that you know are probably wrong.

Does everyone think Bruce Arians was good? What about Ron Rivera? I think both of those guys are good as long as they have a decent and healthy QB, but I’m not sure if that’s the consensus.

On a related note, I kind of hope the Chiefs win it all this year for Reid’s sake. His regular season track record is absolutely insane but the playoff disappointments leave him under appreciated by many casual fans.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:09 pm Sean Payton
Mike Zimmer

Yes to Payton, but are we sure about Zimmer?

Only one season in, but Frank Reich did a hell of a job in Indianapolis this year. And it's early days for him too, but I think McDermott in Buffalo is really good.

ETA - Second "o" to "to."

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:37 pm Does everyone think Bruce Arians was good? What about Ron Rivera? I think both of those guys are good as long as they have a decent and healthy QB, but I’m not sure if that’s the consensus.

I put Rivera in the same category as Tomlin. I want to say they're bad coaches on what I've seen but the results have been good.

No on Mcvay. He's the offensive coordinator who happens to call TOs on both sides of the ball (sometimes poorly). His offensive game plans were poor in the WC game last year as well as the losses to the two best defenses he saw this year. There is zero evidence he has anything substantial to do with the defense. We may find out after Wade leaves but if this defensive on-paper talent level remains, I suspect they will be able to get just about any DC they want. With the exception of Jason Garrett he will be badly outcoached no matter who he faces in the postseason.

Are we sure Dungy was good in this "one of the top ten of the last decade" way?

Obviously, he was the architect of a superior defense in Tampa, but could never get over the hump with them (Gruden rode the defense and DVOA's #20 offense to a ring the year after Dungy left - and the defense was significantly better that season than the year before with Dungy). Won a Super Bowl with the Colts when they ranked 27th in defensive DVOA (and 26th in special teams), so they pretty clearly rode the offense to his one ring.

I think you guys are proving the point pretty well.

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:33 pm I think you guys are proving the point pretty well.

Yup.

Also seeing the stories switching for some of the coaches. When Gruden won, it was a lot of Gruden did what Dungy couldn't do with the same team. Years later, Gruden is considered the idiot that won only because he took over what Dungy built.

Say what you want about Dungy but at least 12 fan bases would kill for a guy who puts up a 139-69 record even if it meant no Super Bowl wins.

Maybe Dungy just caught lightning in a bottle, but the year he won the SB, Indy’s offense was pretty bad in the playoffs but their defense played great. Manning was particularly bad in the wild card and divisional rounds that year but the Colts defense picked up the slack with two great performances. Manning was better later on — he had an epic second half against the Pats in the AFCCG and played reasonably well in the SB considering the opponent and weather. But the defense totally bailed him out before then.

Rams Fanny wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:07 pm No on Mcvay. He's the offensive coordinator who happens to call TOs on both sides of the ball (sometimes poorly). His offensive game plans were poor in the WC game last year as well as the losses to the two best defenses he saw this year. There is zero evidence he has anything substantial to do with the defense. We may find out after Wade leaves but if this defensive on-paper talent level remains, I suspect they will be able to get just about any DC they want. With the exception of Jason Garrett he will be badly outcoached no matter who he faces in the postseason.

Even if he is only an offensive head coach, he deserves beaucoup points for taking the Jeff Fisher-ravaged offense that looked horrible, and immediately making it one of the best in the NFL.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:58 pm

Rams Fanny wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:07 pm No on Mcvay. He's the offensive coordinator who happens to call TOs on both sides of the ball (sometimes poorly). His offensive game plans were poor in the WC game last year as well as the losses to the two best defenses he saw this year. There is zero evidence he has anything substantial to do with the defense. We may find out after Wade leaves but if this defensive on-paper talent level remains, I suspect they will be able to get just about any DC they want. With the exception of Jason Garrett he will be badly outcoached no matter who he faces in the postseason.

Even if he is only an offensive head coach, he deserves beaucoup points for taking the Jeff Fisher-ravaged offense that looked horrible, and immediately making it one of the best in the NFL.

And he's only been a Head Coach for 32 games. Let's see what the playoffs and the next season or two hold.

Rams Fanny wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:07 pm No on Mcvay. He's the offensive coordinator who happens to call TOs on both sides of the ball (sometimes poorly). His offensive game plans were poor in the WC game last year as well as the losses to the two best defenses he saw this year. There is zero evidence he has anything substantial to do with the defense. We may find out after Wade leaves but if this defensive on-paper talent level remains, I suspect they will be able to get just about any DC they want. With the exception of Jason Garrett he will be badly outcoached no matter who he faces in the postseason.

I hope they let him go. He probably has you guys thinking your QB is actually good.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:04 pm Mike Tomlin

My feeling is that the Steelers have grossly underachieved with the talent he's had.

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:40 pm On a related note, I kind of hope the Chiefs win it all this year for Reid’s sake. His regular season track record is absolutely insane but the playoff disappointments leave him under appreciated by many casual fans.

Curious, but isn't his track record exactly what would happen with a coach who is able to consistently play up a lesser roster? Beat who they should, beat some others but never run through a string of better teams.

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:15 am

brian wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:04 pm Mike Tomlin

My feeling is that the Steelers have grossly underachieved with the talent he's had.

Perhaps, though that's probably overstated. They've never been the best roster in the NFL or even close to it with that defense, and they only lost one playoff game where the three guys who are good enough to have nicknames were all healthy. They should have done a bit better but there's no similar criticism for Sean Payton, Pete Carroll (maybe a little before this season), Mike McCarthy before recently, Mike Zimmer right now, etc. I mean yeah they have some great top end offensive players but this is a team that had Fitz Touissant fumble away a season after Markus Wheaton dropped a 4th down TD pass.

That 2016 AFCCG in NE was Sammie Coates and Cobi Hamilton (?) dropping balls right in their breadbasket. Last year was really the only year that they had all systems go and yes, they did fuck that up pretty badly.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:19 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:40 pm On a related note, I kind of hope the Chiefs win it all this year for Reid’s sake. His regular season track record is absolutely insane but the playoff disappointments leave him under appreciated by many casual fans.

Curious, but isn't his track record exactly what would happen with a coach who is able to consistently play up a lesser roster? Beat who they should, beat some others but never run through a string of better teams.

It's exactly what I'd expect from someone who's had Alex Smith and to a lesser degree Donovan McNabb for his entire career. This is the first time he's had a QB with the arm and mindset to truly execute his system. Alex Smith still skates for anchoring the recent Chiefs team that had Super Bowl talent elsewhere. McNabb catches too much shit but he was still an avoid turnovers type of QB that doesn't maximize a Reid offense.

I think a few things:

1. NFL head coach is basically like a CEO running a hedge fund or something high stress and high leverage like that.

2. While those positions are filled typically by Ivy League types who have shown a particular acumen for decades before entering that role, NFL head coaching spots are staffed by guys who majored in Exercise Science at Savannah State.

3. Due to this, a lot of them make dumb decisions quite frequently because it's a hard job and they aren't perhaps the archetype you'd expect for that position.

4. It's also a high stress job with a lot of no-win situations that's going to make #3 look worse than it should.

5. Truly brilliant young coaching minds rise so rapidly because the competition isn't really that great.

6. We really have no idea who is or isn't a good coach in most cases and often good coaches turn into bad coaches because say a kicker shanks a field goal and some guy drops an interception.

I give you 3,4 and 6. 50% ain't bad.

Then those are probably the ones I'm wrong about.

I'm not gonna beat my head against the wall defending Tomlin, but if he was fired this morning, he'd probably be the top candidate for every NFL team with a vacancy and one or maybe two other teams would probably fire their head coach later today to be able to get a shot at him.

Yeah, if the Broncos could have him, I'd be thrilled.

Guys like Tomlin and Andy Reid get slagged for losing big games and poor game management. Valid criticism, but they deserve credit for regularly getting their teams to the postseason. If you can do that over time, with lots of different players, that's worth a lot.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:22 pm I'm not gonna beat my head against the wall defending Tomlin, but if he was fired this morning, he'd probably be the top candidate for every NFL team with a vacancy and one or maybe two other teams would probably fire their head coach later today to be able to get a shot at him.

He hasn't developed at all in his ten years (he still stubbornly sucks at the same things), and they do lay a lot of eggs (though I also think Tomlin takes a lot of blame away from guys like Roethlisberger who had these bad games before Tomlin got there), but they are always fighting and they seem to have a ton of resolve.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:19 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:22 pm I'm not gonna beat my head against the wall defending Tomlin, but if he was fired this morning, he'd probably be the top candidate for every NFL team with a vacancy and one or maybe two other teams would probably fire their head coach later today to be able to get a shot at him.

He hasn't developed at all in his ten years (he still stubbornly sucks at the same things), and they do lay a lot of eggs (though I also think Tomlin takes a lot of blame away from guys like Roethlisberger who had these bad games before Tomlin got there), but they are always fighting and they seem to have a ton of resolve.

Every time Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs in I think the last 15 years, they only missed by 1 game and each season they missed they lost to Oakland. So you flip results against literally just one team in four seasons then they've made the playoffs for like something fucking insane like 20 straight years going back to Cowher's era?

I don't think a Pats fan or Steelers fan or even a Seahawks fan can comprehend just how much it sucks to root for half the teams in the NFL because you basically have zero shot every season and even if you do sneak into the playoffs every four years, it would take a miracle just to get to the conference title game much less win a title.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:28 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:19 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:22 pm I'm not gonna beat my head against the wall defending Tomlin, but if he was fired this morning, he'd probably be the top candidate for every NFL team with a vacancy and one or maybe two other teams would probably fire their head coach later today to be able to get a shot at him.

He hasn't developed at all in his ten years (he still stubbornly sucks at the same things), and they do lay a lot of eggs (though I also think Tomlin takes a lot of blame away from guys like Roethlisberger who had these bad games before Tomlin got there), but they are always fighting and they seem to have a ton of resolve.

Every time Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs in I think the last 15 years, they only missed by 1 game and each season they missed they lost to Oakland. So you flip results against literally just one team in four seasons then they've made the playoffs for like something fucking insane like 20 straight years going back to Cowher's era?

I don't think a Pats fan or Steelers fan or even a Seahawks fan can comprehend just how much it sucks to root for half the teams in the NFL because you basically have zero shot every season and even if you do sneak into the playoffs every four years, it would take a miracle just to get to the conference title game much less win a title.

Yeah, but this was a rebuilding year. 2019 is the year we turn it around!

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:30 am

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:19 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:40 pm On a related note, I kind of hope the Chiefs win it all this year for Reid’s sake. His regular season track record is absolutely insane but the playoff disappointments leave him under appreciated by many casual fans.

Curious, but isn't his track record exactly what would happen with a coach who is able to consistently play up a lesser roster? Beat who they should, beat some others but never run through a string of better teams.

It's exactly what I'd expect from someone who's had Alex Smith and to a lesser degree Donovan McNabb for his entire career. This is the first time he's had a QB with the arm and mindset to truly execute his system. Alex Smith still skates for anchoring the recent Chiefs team that had Super Bowl talent elsewhere. McNabb catches too much shit but he was still an avoid turnovers type of QB that doesn't maximize a Reid offense.

Alex Smith "skates" because he was the best Chiefs QB since frail Joe Montana (unless you think Trent Green belongs in this discussion. which ... very possible. but also an indictment of the discussion!)

I'm wildly biased here, but is there a stat that measures WR quality for a QB because I'd have to think McNabb's would be among the worst all-time. Catch leader by season at the WR position ...

2000: Charles Johnson
2001: James Thrash
2002: Todd Pinkston
2003: James Thrash
2004: Terrell Owens
2005: Greg Lewis
2006: Reggie Brown
2007: Kevin Curtis
2008: DeSean Jackson
2009: DeSean Jackson

I assume DeSean Jackson is a legit #1, which means he played three of his 10 seasons with a #1 and then the other seven with nothing above a #3? That seems really bad, right?

Ha. Remember FredEx!

rass wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:42 pm Ha. Remember FredEx!

I wish I didn’t.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:37 pm I'm wildly biased here, but is there a stat that measures WR quality for a QB because I'd have to think McNabb's would be among the worst all-time. Catch leader by season at the WR position ...

2000: Charles Johnson
2001: James Thrash
2002: Todd Pinkston
2003: James Thrash
2004: Terrell Owens
2005: Greg Lewis
2006: Reggie Brown
2007: Kevin Curtis
2008: DeSean Jackson
2009: DeSean Jackson

I assume DeSean Jackson is a legit #1, which means he played three of his 10 seasons with a #1 and then the other seven with nothing above a #3? That seems really bad, right?

to piggyback, i would also like to see a stat of recievers that put up numbers with shit qbs...cause Andre Johnson literally never had a decent qb. He is a hall of famer when you consider his best three qbs in his texans career were matt schaub, Tj yates, and David Carr. His worst three were matt leinart, Sage rosenfels and david carr. also he never had a number two receiver in his prime. just saying im on a homer texans rant but i think jj watr and andre johnson are both hall of famers and i dont see it happening

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:37 pm I'm wildly biased here, but is there a stat that measures WR quality for a QB because I'd have to think McNabb's would be among the worst all-time. Catch leader by season at the WR position ...

2000: Charles Johnson
2001: James Thrash
2002: Todd Pinkston
2003: James Thrash
2004: Terrell Owens
2005: Greg Lewis
2006: Reggie Brown
2007: Kevin Curtis
2008: DeSean Jackson
2009: DeSean Jackson

I assume DeSean Jackson is a legit #1, which means he played three of his 10 seasons with a #1 and then the other seven with nothing above a #3? That seems really bad, right?

Desean is right on the edge of #1, but I would lean great field stretcher more than reliable #1 target.