NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Who do you think will win the two games?

Poll ended at Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:38 pm

New England Patriots
6
19%
Kansas City Chiefs
10
32%
Los Angeles Rams
6
19%
New Orleans Saints
9
29%
 
Total votes: 31

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sancarlos
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NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by sancarlos »

Who ya got? Who is going to win?


And, why do I feel that after the games, we'll be talking about at least one coach's poor clock management?
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Pruitt »

After going 0-4 last week, I am but a shell of the man I was 7 days ago.

I am confidently taking the Saints (-3) and emotionally taking the Chiefs (-3).
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by brian »

IDGAF as long as NE loses.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Joe K »

No outcome will shock me but I think that the Pats and Saints win. And then I’ll disappear into a hole for 2 weeks to escape the nonstop “Brady & Brees: They’re Both Old; Who’s the GOAT?” stories.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

Pats/Saints is what I'd like to see.

Rams/Chiefs is what'll happen.

Although any outcome is sure to have a decent game which is good.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by mister d »

I think Brady hit his 100th percentile outcome and there are plenty of scenarios where he’s just a guy but there’s no way you can debate him versus Brees, right?
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

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mister d wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:46 pm I think Brady hit his 100th percentile outcome and there are plenty of scenarios where he’s just a guy but there’s no way you can debate him versus Brees, right?
It’s weird. I think brees May be a better pure qb. But he hasn’t had success as much because of all the other factors. But yes it’s hard to deny Brady goat status even if you hate pats.

(Basically if the pats had brees instead of Brady they may still have same results, but maybe same if Brady was on saints)
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

mister d wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:46 pm I think Brady hit his 100th percentile outcome and there are plenty of scenarios where he’s just a guy but there’s no way you can debate him versus Brees, right?
Back in week 9 sports media tried to seriously force a Brady vs Rodgers GOAT debate. That was cute.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

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Johnnie wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:42 am
mister d wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:46 pm I think Brady hit his 100th percentile outcome and there are plenty of scenarios where he’s just a guy but there’s no way you can debate him versus Brees, right?
Back in week 9 sports media tried to seriously force a Brady vs Rodgers GOAT debate. That was cute.
I hate the Pats, and I have been watching football since the days of Mike Phipps... and Brady is unquestionably the GOAT.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Joe K »

Pruitt wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:02 am
Johnnie wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:42 am
mister d wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:46 pm I think Brady hit his 100th percentile outcome and there are plenty of scenarios where he’s just a guy but there’s no way you can debate him versus Brees, right?
Back in week 9 sports media tried to seriously force a Brady vs Rodgers GOAT debate. That was cute.
I hate the Pats, and I have been watching football since the days of Mike Phipps... and Brady is unquestionably the GOAT.
Eh, I wouldn’t say unquestionably. Most accomplished isn’t the same as best, especially in a team sport. (There are a number of basketball players who are a lot less accomplished than Bill Russell who I think were better.) Rodgers is more physically gifted and ahead of Brady in every statistical metric. Montana didn’t have the longevity of Brady but won a bunch and was statistically better if you adjust for era. Peyton Manning put up monster stats and won 10+ games every year, while playing for a handful of coaches that people would rank far, far behind Belichick. The point being that you really can’t just look at end results (even titles) and attribute it all to the QB. I was being facetious when I said people would debate Brady/Brees — although I do expect little of that — but it does make you wonder what Brees’ career looks like if he played all 18 of his seasons with Belichick and had 6 games per year against the brutal competition that has been the Jets, Bills and Dolphins.

ETA: Fast forward like 20 years and I’ll be having this same debate with respect to Curry or Durant v. LeBron. If Durant re-signs there this offseason then Curry and Durant will end up with like 6 or 7 rings to LeBron’s 3. But don’t tell me for a second that either of those guys is as great as LeBron.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Pruitt »

Brees is one of the greats.

But you're right - there really can't be an objective truth here. There are so many other factors involved, but I should say that in my opinion, he is the best.

Last weekend, my brother-in-law the Cowboys fan made a pretty convincing argument as to why Joe Gibbs is the greatest HC of all time. Hard to disagree... but what about Bellichick, Walsh, Brown etc., etc.?
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Joe K »

I assume the Gibbs argument is based on winning titles with three different QBs? It’s usually so hard to separate coach and QB responsibility for success unless it’s a Nick Saban at Bama situation where he’s in the top-5 every year despite having only ever having one high-end NFL prospect at QB.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

I actually agree with Joe K on the unquestionably part. It's very, very tough. My crack against the Brady/Rodgers debate is more an indictment of sports media than having the conversation. It would be quite a discussion to compare Manning/Brees/Brady/Rodgers etc and have a true discussion of what merits best.

But when Green Bay plays New England in a week 9 showdown and the conversation is immediately "Oh my God who's the real GOAT!?!? Find out Sunday!" it's lame and lazy.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

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Johnnie wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:00 am I actually agree with Joe K on the unquestionably part. It's very, very tough. My crack against the Brady/Rodgers debate is more an indictment of sports media than having the conversation. It would be quite a discussion to compare Manning/Brees/Brady/Rodgers etc and have a true discussion of what merits best.

But when Green Bay plays New England in a week 9 showdown and the conversation is immediately "Oh my God who's the real GOAT!?!? Find out Sunday!" it's lame and lazy.
Absolutely right.

"Unquestionably" should always be preceded by "in my opinion" when we're talking things like this.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EnochRoot »

I'll root for the Chiefs and Rams cuz Mahomes is probably my favorite player to watch in the entire sport, and the Rams have Aaron Donald - who at the time of the NFL draft I pleaded with my TV screen for the Bucs to draft. Dude's a fucking wrecking ball.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

I love Brees and I want to see him in the Super Bowl again, but if we're doing the what-if game comparing QBs, I wonder how different his stats would be if he were playing outside in the northeast.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

EdRomero wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:12 pm I love Brees and I want to see him in the Super Bowl again, but if we're doing the what-if game comparing QBs, I wonder how different is stats would be if he were playing outside in the northeast.
And my favorite QB what-if is what if Marino played in this era with the current rules and advanced offensive systems.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by sancarlos »

Tom Brady had 171 interceptions in his career. My main issue with both Drew Brees and Dan Marino is/was their tendency to force balls into coverage and the resulting interceptions. Brees has 233 and Marino had 252 career interception.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Brontoburglar »

From FO:

AFC Championship Preview 2019
by Scott Kacsmar

This is the high-stakes matchup the AFC has been building towards for years. It's a rubber match as Andy Reid's Chiefs are 2-2 against Bill Belichick's Patriots since 2014. It was a Monday night massacre (41-14) at Arrowhead back in 2014 that led some to believe that the Patriots' dynasty was over. New England rebounded to win Super Bowl XLIX while the Chiefs (9-7) missed the playoffs. In 2015, the teams met in the divisional round of the playoffs in New England, and the Chiefs didn't have the offense to keep up in a 27-20 loss. It looked like a better Kansas City team would return for a rematch in the 2016 AFC Championship Game, but the Steelers ended that season at Arrowhead in an 18-16 game and the Patriots won another Super Bowl. The Chiefs had an impressive 42-27 win in New England to start the 2017 season and should have been the team most likely to win there in January. However, the Chiefs couldn't get past the first round of the playoffs while the Patriots advanced to another Super Bowl.

2018 has introduced quarterback sensation Patrick Mahomes, the early favorite for the face of the AFC's next decade. Now the Chiefs are the league's offensive juggernaut with home-field advantage even after dropping a 43-40 game in New England in Week 6. Last week, Kansas City beat the Colts, finally winning its first home playoff game since the 1993 season. With the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City for the first time ever, the Patriots find themselves in the unusual role of three-point underdogs as they attempt to become the third team to reach three straight Super Bowls (1971-73 Dolphins, 1990-93 Bills).

Ever since the Patriots re-branded themselves as an offensive juggernaut in 2007, they have rarely been an underdog with Tom Brady at quarterback. This is only their 18th time as underdogs since 2007 (9-8 game record), and the first time since the 2014 Patriots lost 26-21 in Green Bay. That was another road game against a No. 1 offense in DVOA and a quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) having an MVP season. This is the 39th playoff start for the Brady-Belichick duo, but it is only the eighth true road game. The record is 3-4 in the first seven games; the Patriots haven't won a road playoff game since the 2006 AFC divisional round in San Diego. They have since blown a 21-3 lead to Peyton Manning's Colts (2006) and twice lost to Manning's Denver teams in title games in 2013 (26-16) and 2015 (20-18). Needless to say, the Patriots are looking for their biggest road win in 12 years here.

While the Patriots are playing the "us vs. the world" card this week, the fact is that home-field advantage is really the reason why the Chiefs are favored here. Not only are the Patriots just 3-5 on the road with several poor losses this season, but the defense is inexplicably 31st in DVOA on the road compared to second at home. That's bad news against a historic offense led by Mahomes. On the other side, the Chiefs are 30th in defensive DVOA on the road, but 12th at home. They only gave up one score to Andrew Luck and the Colts last week. We'll dig into those splits below, but the fact is that the Patriots are on the road in a game against the No. 1 team in DVOA. In fact, the Chiefs' advantage in team DVOA (+18.8%) is the second-biggest advantage any team has had over the Patriots in 39 playoff matchups since 2001. Only the 2005 Broncos (+20.8%) were higher, and that was a 27-13 win in Denver. The Chiefs deserve to be the favorite this week.

We'll make a quick mention of the weather before we get into the matchups. There were reports early in the week that this could be one of the coldest games in NFL history with single-digit temperatures, if not below zero. That doesn't appear to be the case at all now, with Sunday evening looking to be in the 20s with marginal wind. It likely won't be any worse than the flurries and cold the Chiefs played in against the Colts last week, and obviously the Patriots are experienced with such conditions. The Vegas total is holding strong at 55.5 points, which would be the second-highest total in Pro Football Reference's database for a game played in sub-30-degree temperatures. The highest just so happens to be that aforementioned Patriots-Packers game in 2014, where the underdog Patriots lost.

For those who may be unfamiliar with the Football Outsiders stats, they are explained at the bottom of the page. Scroll down or click this link. Game charting data appears courtesy Sports Info Solutions, unless noted. All stats represent regular season only, except for weighted DVOA and anything else specifically noted.

New England at Kansas City
NE KC
DVOA 14.2% (7) 33.0% (1)
WEI DVOA 23.8% (3) 26.4% (1)
Patriots on Offense
NE OFF KC DEF
DVOA 14.5% (5) 6.8% (26)
WEI DVOA 20.2% (2) 1.6% (17)
PASS 32.9% (4) 4.7% (12)
RUSH 2.5% (9) 9.7% (32)
Chiefs on Offense
NE DEF KC OFF
DVOA 0.4% (16) 34.2% (1)
WEI DVOA -1.8% (11) 28.7% (1)
PASS 5.1% (14) 63.0% (1)
RUSH -7.0% (19) 10.9% (4)
Special Teams
NE KC
ST DVOA 0.1% (16) 5.6% (2)
If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

Fresh off a bye week, the Patriots looked ready with a plan for the Chargers. They even made the rare move to receive after winning the coin toss, and it quickly led to 35 points before halftime. After getting credit for using seven defensive backs against the Ravens, the Chargers used that again on 42 snaps in Foxborough, but the Patriots ate the Chargers alive with short passes (Brady's 4.1 aDOT was his second lowest of the season) and a strong ground game. Maybe those seven defensive backs should have paid attention to Julian Edelman, who had 151 yards on nine catches despite being the clear No. 1 wideout since Josh Gordon's season ended. The Chargers also had no answers for the running backs as James White caught 15 passes for 97 yards as an extension to the running game. The Chargers played right into New England's hands with their commitment to zone coverage and not blitzing the quarterback. Brady was only hit twice all day and was never sacked.

Enter the Chiefs, who just happen to be the defense that the Patriots set season-highs against in Week 6 in points (43), yards (500), and first downs (31). That sounds very promising, though the Chiefs do present a different matchup from the Chargers. Still, the Patriots need to do more of the same this week, where a minimum of 27 points should be required to win. That means a fast start so they can control the pace of the game and stick with the run and play-action to limit Mahomes' opportunities. It's just that on the road the Patriots have not been that sharp this season. New England has already had four wire-to-wire losses this season, tied with 2002 for the most in one year under Belichick. In three of those games, the Patriots only scored 10 points. While some early-season flaws may explain the losses in Detroit and Jacksonville, this still happened in Week 15 in Pittsburgh the last time the Patriots played on the road.

The Patriots especially want to run the ball against the No. 32 run defense by DVOA, but those awful game scripts on the road have made it hard for this team to stick with the run. Seven of the eight games this season where the Patriots rushed for fewer than 120 yards were on the road. It's not just the volume that was different either. New England's average rush at home gained 4.50 yards per carry compared to 3.93 on the road -- the 0.57 increase at home was the fifth-largest in 2018. The Patriots just haven't been able to go on the road and dominate on the ground outside of that Week 12 win against the Jets (215 yards) where they had a lot of chunk plays in the second half.

Even though Andrew Luck was clearly struggling last week, the Colts didn't have any easy completions to running backs. They didn't have any hard ones either as the Colts were 0-for-2 on targets to backs. The Patriots will certainly top that against a defense that ranked 21st in DVOA against receiving backs. White's 97 receiving yards last week are the fewest in NFL history for anyone with 15 catches in a game, but that's not bad when you think of it as part of the running game. It's usually going to be a pass when White is in the game and a run when Sony Michel is in the backfield, but the Patriots tend to make it work anyway. Throw in some Rex Burkhead and the Patriots have a trio of backs to use this week.

In Week 6 against the Chiefs, the Patriots had one of their best rushing days of the season with 173 yards. That night the Patriots also had their highest first down-per-rush rate, (39.5 percent), their most rushing first downs (15), and their designed run percentage from shotgun was a season-high 26.3 percent according to ESPN Stats & Info. They ran very well against the Chiefs, and they'll look to repeat that with Michel leading the way. Last week, the Colts had some effective runs, but thanks to starting the game with four three-and-outs, they trailed by 17 early and had to basically abandon the ground game.


The Patriots won't want to abandon the run because of play-action passing. We can save the debates that teams should use play-action more and that you don't need to run well to use it, but even the Patriots won't find it as valuable if the game script goes awry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the 2018 Patriots had the fourth-highest usage rate (29 percent) of play-action and the highest yards per play (9.9) with play-action, but they were only 21st in yards per play (6.3) without play-action. That difference of 3.7 yards in using play-action was easily the largest in the league. Brady was 10-of-12 for 140 yards on play-action against the Chiefs in Week 6.

The Chiefs will have to stop the run better, but the easiest way to end drives is still going to be to rattle Brady with pressure. What could be the key in home-field advantage? Noise from the crowd, apparently. Arrowhead is known as one of the loudest stadiums, and here's a stat that can help explain why the Chiefs are statistically solid at home: According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Chiefs have the highest pressure rate at home (36.9 percent), but fall to 26th in road games (25.9 percent). The difference in quality of opponents also explains a lot, but this is significant too.

One of the most impressive parts of the performance last week was the three sacks, including a strip-sack, against Andrew Luck. Justin Houston had two of those sacks. He missed the first matchup, so that's a big addition to go with Dee Ford and Chris Jones up front. The Chiefs sacked Brady twice in Week 6, but it was a third-down play where Brady got away from Breeland Speaks for a rushing touchdown that really hurt. Speaks didn't wrap Brady up for fear of a penalty, but the Chiefs are going to have to hit the quarterback often this week.

Safety Eric Berry has also been practicing this week and could play in his third game this season on Sunday. Berry helped keep Rob Gronkowski in check in Week 1 of the 2017 matchup when the defense forced Brady into a lot of deep passes. The Chiefs actually have the best DVOA (-49.3%) on passes thrown to the deep middle of the field, so that hasn't been an area of weakness in Berry's absence. The Chiefs could really use someone to check Edelman or Gronkowski over the middle this time around. In Week 6, the Patriots did not have a play longer than 17 yards through nearly three quarters, but Brady finished with five long completions starting with the final play of the third quarter. Gronkowski hasn't been himself this year, but he came through with three big catches for 97 yards against the Chiefs, including a 39-yard grab on the game-winning drive. Gronkowski has only broken 60 receiving yards in a game once since Week 6, and he will be used as a blocker a lot to help the running game. Still, when the season's on the line, he's likely someone the Chiefs will have to deal with, so Berry could help there even if neither player is at 100 percent.

The Patriots are too smart and experienced to look as bad as the Colts did last week, but the Chiefs have the natural pass-rushing talent and will play press-man coverage on the receivers to make Brady's job tougher. The Chiefs are one of six teams to play man coverage at least 50 percent of the time this season, and Brady only averages 7.3 yards per attempt against man coverage (ranked 19th), according to Sports Info Solutions. "Get pressure without blitzing and press the receivers" has been the strategy for years against New England, but for a change we'll see a team at home that will try to do exactly that.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Much will be said about the coaching matchup in this one, but Andy Reid deserves a lot of credit for how he's attacked Belichick's defense with the Chiefs. The Patriots have allowed 40 points in seven games since 2000 under Belichick, and three of those games are to Reid's Chiefs. The only other time it's recently happened was the 41-33 loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. Doug Pederson, who comes from Reid's coaching tree, was the coach for that one last February.

Reid's 2-6 record against Belichick doesn't do him justice. Even in 2007 with the Eagles, Reid had the mighty, undefeated Patriots on the ropes in a game with A.J. Feeley as his quarterback. This week, Reid will have home-field advantage and a special quarterback of his own in Mahomes, who is quickly becoming a magician at the position. Just look at the release and ball placement on this pass against the Colts last week:

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Every week Mahomes seems to add multiple plays to his highlight reel, and his consistency is why this team has scored at least 26 points in every start of his career. It's a spectacular offense that also dominated situational football, ranking No. 1 in DVOA on third down and in the red zone. The offense was No.1 or No. 2 in DVOA at every depth level on third down. The Chiefs were also second in DVOA in late-and-close situations (the Patriots were third). Mahomes threw go-ahead touchdown passes against the Patriots and Rams this season, but the defense was unable to close things out. While the Patriots are this year's deadliest offense when using play-action, the Chiefs are No.1 in yards per play (8.2) without using play-action.

How should the Patriots defend this offense? We know Belichick is famous for taking away one great player, but should that be versatile tight end Travis Kelce or speedy deep threat Tyreek Hill? Not letting Kelce eat them alive underneath like he did the Colts last week (108 yards on 10 targets) and forcing Mahomes to hit deep throws to Hill in the cold would probably be smart. Kelce has averaged 50.5 yards in the last two meetings with the Patriots, which is below his average production. New England in general has been good against tight ends in 2018, ranked eighth in DVOA. However, while the Patriots know Hill is uniquely fast, that hasn't stopped him from scoring a 75-yard touchdown in New England in 2017 and 2018. In fact, Hill has more 75-yard touchdown catches against the Patriots (two) than he has against the rest of the NFL (one) in his career. While Kelce's numbers were down, Hill had 133 and 142 receiving yards in the last two games against the Patriots.

Sammy Watkins can be a wild card in this matchup. He has missed a good chunk of this season, but he returned against the Colts and had some positive plays before losing a fumble in the third quarter. He can be that third significant receiving weapon in this offense, and he drew the attention of New England's top cornerback Stephon Gilmore last time. Gilmore's charting metrics (No. 1 in success rate and No. 2 in yards per pass) are as good as any cornerback's this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. None of Hill's 12 targets (including three touchdowns) in Week 6 had Gilmore on him in coverage, so it will be interesting to see if the Patriots put their best corner on Kansas City's most dangerous receiver more. According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots had a lot of success with playing press coverage this year, but Hill still had the highest yards per route (4.1) against press coverage since 2016. The Patriots finished second in DVOA against deep passes this season, but Mahomes has the arm talent to deliver again this week even in suboptimal conditions.


Running backs have also been huge for Reid in the passing game, and that is especially true against the Patriots. Even in the 2014 matchup, Jamaal Charles caught two short touchdowns. Kareem Hunt got vertical on the Patriots for touchdown catches of 78 and 67 yards the last two years, but the team cut him in December. While that's a loss worth mentioning, it's not like the Chiefs haven't been able to replace Hunt without skipping a beat. Spencer Ware and Damien Williams easily have the most receiving DYAR in 2018 by any backs with fewer than 25 targets. The running back screen is still an effective play with anyone the Chiefs use. Williams in particular has taken over as the lead back and rushed for 129 yards against the Colts last week. As Warren Sharp recently noted, the Patriots have struggled down the stretch in runs out of 11 personnel, which would be a more attractive option for the Chiefs with Watkins back in action. Reid has proven going back to his Philadelphia days that he can work any back into an offense. Even in the 2014 win over the Patriots, Knile Davis rushed for 107 yards to complement Charles. The Chiefs shouldn't neglect their backs this week against a defense that ranks 19th against the run and 22nd against receiving backs.

The Patriots played man coverage on 57 percent of snaps this year, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. That is preferable to just sitting in zone against Mahomes, but his numbers against man coverage are still quite impressive with 8.14 yards per attempt and 17 touchdowns to four interceptions. Some, including NFL Network's Willie McGinest, believe that keeping Mahomes in the pocket is key for the Patriots to succeed. That's not necessarily true. Mahomes did throw for 192 yards outside the pocket against Denver in Week 4, the most such yards in any game since 2009 according to ESPN Stats & Info. He has three of the top 20 games since 2009, including the 130 yards he produced from out of the pocket against the Patriots in Week 6. However, for the season Mahomes' passer rating (117.0) and QBR (82.3) inside the pocket were still second to only Drew Brees, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Dont'a Hightower baited Mahomes into an interception in Week 6 from the pocket, but the quarterback still functions from there at an elite level. It's just an added bonus that he can scramble and make things happen too, and mobile quarterbacks have given the Patriots their share of problems over the years.

Pressure is certainly going to be important for the Patriots. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate (33.9 percent) this season according to Sports Info Solutions. Mahomes holds the ball longer than most quarterbacks, but he doesn't take a lot of sacks, though he did have four against the Colts. Mahomes has also been credited with a league-high 16 avoided sacks (broken tackles), according to Sports Info Solutions. The Patriots were all over Philip Rivers prior to garbage time last week, but that was unusual success for New England this year. The Patriots called a pretty conservative game against the Chiefs in Week 6, bringing their second-lowest blitz rate of the season. The pressure rate on Mahomes was a fairly average game for both his season and the New England defense. Trey Flowers leads the way for New England with 7.5 sacks, but they're not going to be able to pressure Mahomes consistently like the Ravens did in Week 14.

The Patriots have come away with multiple takeaways in 12 of their 17 games this season. The Week 6 meeting was one of four games for the Chiefs with multiple giveaways. Mahomes forced an interception before halftime in the red zone with his team trailing 24-9. Things can get easier for the Patriots with an early lead, but the Chiefs have spent the most time leading and the least time trailing this season.

Finally, there is the peculiar split where New England's top eight games in defensive DVOA were all at home and the bottom eight were all on the road. Oddly enough, their pressure rate remains in the top four for both home and road, so it's not a crowd noise issue. Opponent adjustments hurt here as the Patriots had their five worst games on defense against offenses that finished 20th or worse in DVOA. Of the five games where the Patriots did not have multiple takeaways, four were on the road. The Patriots allowed more than 24 points five times on the road compared to twice at home, including the garbage-time scores by the Chargers in last week's 41-28 win. The Jaguars (31), Titans (34), and Dolphins (34) all scored their season high in points on the Patriots. That means Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, and Marcus Mariota were among the baffling quarterbacks to have their best game of the season against the Patriots at home this year. Even Matthew Stafford and the Lions knocked off the Patriots in September. Detroit otherwise finished 0-7 in games against teams with a winning record.

That's a bad resume to go up against a quarterback that already scored 40 points in the last matchup. In the last 10 seasons, the Patriots are 8-19 (.296) on the road when allowing at least 26 points, or what we'll call The Mahomes Line.

SPECIAL TEAMS
We have come to expect strong special teams play from both of these teams, but that hasn't always been the case this season. The Patriots finished 16th in DVOA (0.1%) and you would have to go back to 1995 to find the last time their DVOA was this low. New England has one of the all-time great kick returners in Cordarrelle Patterson, but still ranked 19th in starting field position after kickoffs (Chiefs were No. 1). The Chiefs were No. 2 in special teams DVOA, but surrendered a really bad touchdown against the Colts last week on a blocked punt. They too have a dangerous return man (for punts) in Tyreek Hill, though his only two big punt returns this season happened in the season's first four weeks. The kickers should be prepared for this matchup, though Stephen Gostkowski has Harrison Butker beat in experience with the playoffs and bad weather.

By DVOA, the Week 6 matchup was Kansas City's second-best game on special teams this year and the second-worst for the Patriots. It was most notable for the breakout game by Kansas City rookie kick returner Tremon Smith. He had a 97-yard return in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots were the worst team this year in our metrics for kickoff coverage.

One thing we almost never saw in that game: punting. There was one punt (by the Chiefs) in the whole game and the Patriots had zero accepted penalties. Expect a few more of both this time around.

OUTLOOK
This is the biggest game for the Chiefs since the 1970 merger, so there is definitely pressure on the home team to come through. Home teams are on a 10-0 run on Championship Sunday, with the last loss happening to the Patriots against Baltimore in the 2012 season.

Since 2001, the Patriots are 16-1 in the playoffs against new opponents and 12-9 in rematches from the regular season. Last week, the Chargers didn't look like they had a clue on how to handle the Patriots on either side of the ball. The Chiefs will be prepared, and their offense has been the most reliable unit in the league this season. The weather doesn't seem like it will be anything abnormal, and the defense getting Houston and possibly Berry back could really pay off for this matchup.

Despite the way the Patriots are trying to sell themselves as the underdogs, no one should be surprised if they win this game. Brady against a defense that allows the most yards and fifth-most points per drive always sounds like a favorable matchup. Belichick has faced historic offenses before and knows the value of possessions. He may even take the ball first again this week if the Patriots win the coin toss. It takes an exceptional performance to beat the Chiefs this year. While the Patriots have done it once and are capable of doing it again, their performances on the road have left a lot to be desired.

All-time great quarterback seasons rarely lead to rings, but they do often get to the Super Bowl. This just feels like the time for Mahomes and the Chiefs to break through, and if they do, a gift should be sent to the Dolphins for the Miracle in Miami play that helped put this game in Arrowhead rather than Gillette.
"We're not the smartest people in the world. We go down the straightaway and turn left. That's literally what we do." -- Clint Bowyer
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Brontoburglar »

NFC Championship Preview 2019
by Aaron Schatz

The narrative for this year's conference championships is pretty clear: it's all about the offense. This season had the highest offensive levels in league history. The final four teams are the top four teams in scoring, and rank as four of the top five teams in offensive DVOA. The AFC Championship is a rematch of a game that ended 43-40. This NFC Championship is a rematch of a game that ended 45-35.

But it's not a fait accompli that this year's NFC Championship Game is guaranteed to be a non-stop shootout. Because while the Saints' numbers for the season show a superior offense and a mediocre defense, the numbers for the past few weeks show something very different. The Saints have improved dramatically on defense, while taking a step backwards on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams give up a lot of yards, they can bring plenty of havoc on defense too. After all, they employ the likely Defensive Player of the Year, Aaron Donald.

Including the playoffs, the Saints and Rams are both 7-0 at holding a one-score lead in the fourth quarter this season. For the Saints, that includes the first meeting of these teams back in Week 9, which you can read about here. The Saints have relied on a league-high seven game-winning drives and own the best record in close games (those with a Q4 comeback opportunity) this season (8-1). The Rams (8-2) have the second-best record in close games in 2018. Both teams kept their offensive level constant in late and close situations (second half, score within eight) and both teams saw their defensive DVOA improve in these situations. If they keep this game close until the fourth quarter, we could be in line for an all-time classic.

For those who may be unfamiliar with the Football Outsiders stats, they are explained at the bottom of the page. Scroll down or click this link. Game charting data appears courtesy Sports Info Solutions, unless noted. All stats represent regular season only, except for weighted DVOA and anything else specifically noted.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans
LAR NO
DVOA 23.7% (2) 20.7% (4)
WEI DVOA 20.2% (6) 21.3% (5)
Rams on Offense
LAR OFF NO DEF
DVOA 24.6% (2) -3.1% (11)
WEI DVOA 19.6% (3) -11.3% (6)
PASS 32.1% (5) 10.2% (22)
RUSH 22.1% (1) -24.9% (3)
Saints on Offense
LAR DEF NO OFF
DVOA 0.8% (19) 15.9% (4)
WEI DVOA 1.0% (15) 8.1% (10)
PASS 0.2% (9) 34.4% (3)
RUSH 1.5% (28) 3.3% (8)
Special Teams
LAR NO
ST DVOA -0.2% (17) 1.7% (9)
If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL

Let's start with the big matchup of strength against strength: the Rams' running game against the New Orleans run defense. Now, the Rams' offense is not as run-focused as you might think. In the first half of games, before we get into teams with the lead running out clock, the Rams only run on 40 percent of plays, which is about the league average. But nobody ran as well as the Rams this year. In particular, nobody run-blocked as well, or came close. The Rams set a new record with 5.49 adjusted line yards per carry. But they also led the league in rushing DVOA overall, and in second-level yards (gains that come 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage).

On the other side, the Saints finished second in defensive ALY and third in run defense DVOA. The success the Saints had against the run came from all over the formation. They allowed conversions on just 57 percent of short-yardage runs, third in the league, but they also ranked first preventing second-level yards per carry and third preventing open-field yards per carry. The top three Saints in combined run tackles were linebackers Demario Davis and A.J. Klein, and safety Vonn Bell, and they all made their average run tackle closer to the line of scrimmage than the average at their positions.

There's some question about how much the Saints' run defense will be hurt without defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who tore his Achilles last week against the Eagles. Based on our individual defense stats, Rankins was more a player who sucked up double teams so other Saints could make plays, rather than a penetrator who took down running backs himself. Most starting defensive tackles had more combined run tackles than his 25, and his average run tackle came at 2.5 yards which is actually above-average for defensive tackles. The Saints ranked only 17th in ALY up the middle, compared to their rank in the top three for runs listed as left end, left tackle, or right end.

The Rams offense wasn't spectacular on runs around the ends, but they were No. 1 in ALY on runs up the middle or behind left tackle, and they ran more left tackle runs than any other team in the league (21 percent of runs).


Most everyone who watches the NFL closely knows at this point about the Rams' love of 11 personnel: one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers. They use this same personnel group on nearly every play, or at least they did for most of the year. In the final two weeks of the regular season, the Rams were suddenly using a lot more tight ends, particularly in 12 personnel. Did that continue in the divisional round? It looks like it did not. The Rams did have four plays with 12 personnel and four more plays with 13, but five of those eight plays came when they were running out the clock in the fourth quarter.

The Rams' love of 11 personnel brings good news and bad news for Saints fans. The good news is that the Saints' run defense really shined against 11-personnel runs, allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. The bad news is that the Saints were not very good against 11-personnel passes. They allowed 6.9 net yards per pass attempt, 28th in the league, and a 47 percent success rate, 27th in the league.

This split emphasizes the general issue with the Saints defense, which is that it was much better against the run than against the pass. However, the pass defense has turned around substantially in the second half of the season. In the first six games, the Saints had 35.7% pass defense DVOA (31st in the NFL) and allowed 7.8 net yards per attempt (30th). Since trading for Eli Apple and benching Ken Crawley in Week 8, the Saints have -6.6% pass defense DVOA (fifth) and allow 6.5 net yards per attempt (16th).

That improvement since Week 8 also means improvement against passes from 11 personnel. Since Week 8, those passes have gained just 6.2 net yards per attempt. That's still 22nd in the NFL but it's better than New Orleans' full-season numbers. Things are even better if we look at the eight games since the first meeting with the Rams. Since Week 10, passes from 11 personnel have gained just 5.4 net yards per attempt, eighth in the league.

Another place where the Saints improved after the Apple trade was in their splits covering wide receivers, especially No. 2 receivers. For the season, the Saints were 30th against No. 1 receivers and 31st against No. 2 receivers, allowing over 80 yards per game to each. But since Week 8, the Saints rank 18th against No. 1 receivers and tength against No. 2 receiver.

However, there is another split where things didn't improve as much for the Saints when the rest of their defense improved. Overall for the entire season, the Saints ranked ninth in DVOA against short passes but dead last against deep passes (16+ yards in the air). If we only look at things since Week 8, the Saints improve, but not that much: now they are 27th against deep passes. The Rams only threw five deep passes in the first Saints game -- compared to their season average of seven -- but they connected on four of them for an average of 29.3 yards.

The Saints were bad in every direction deep, but short they were much worse against short left passes (7.3% DVOA, 28th) than short middle (-12.5% DVOA, fourth) or short right (-18.6% DVOA, ninth). And this is a split where things got worse, not better, after the Apple trade/midseason. (New Orleans allowed 0.7% DVOA on short left passes through Week 7, then 10.9% DVOA on short left passes from Week 8 onwards.)

The Saints defense ranked 11th with a 31.3 percent pressure rate. If we only look at games since Week 8, that improves to 36.3 percent, fifth over that period. The Rams offensive line was fifth among the lowest pressure rates allowed, at 25.9 percent. Cameron Jordan led the Saints with 48 pressures, third in the NFL behind Donald and Dee Ford. He was followed by Alex Okafor (25.5), rookie Marcus Davenport (20), the injured Sheldon Rankins (18.5), and backup defensive tackle David Onyemata (15.5). Onyemata tends to play passing downs but will get more work on standard downs with Rankins out.

Overall, getting to Goff is a good way to go for the Saints on Sunday. Every quarterback sees his numbers drop under pressure, but Goff also sees his rank among quarterbacks drop under pressure. Under pressure in 2018, he averaged 3.3 net yards per pass, including scrambles (20th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks) and a 27 percent success rate (25th).

In the first matchup of these teams, the Rams offensive line appeared to win out on the pressure battle. The Saints had 11 pressures, for a 25.6 percent pressure rate -- almost exactly equal to the Rams' season number. There were no sacks by either team in the Week 9 game.

Goff was one of four quarterbacks this year to average over a yard more against man coverage (9.3) than against zone coverage (8.0). Goff had a lower interception rate against man coverage, but a higher sack rate. The Saints played man coverage 40 percent of the time, zone coverage 48 percent of the time, and a combined coverage 11 percent of the time, which is a split roughly close to the league average.

One other strategy we have to talk about when we talk about the Rams offense: play-action. The Rams use play-action more than any other team in the league: 34 percent of pass plays according to Sports Info Solutions charting. They gain 9.0 yards per pass with play-action (third in the NFL) compared to 7.1 yards per pass without it (seventh). The Saints allowed 1.1 yards per pass more when opponents used play-action, which was about the league average.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

The Saints' late-season offensive slowdown is one of those trends where we always have to stop and ask ourselves: real trend, or random variation that we're seeing as trend? First of all, throw out the Week 17 game when Teddy Bridgewater started instead of Drew Brees. Even without that, the Saints have had four negative offensive DVOA games in their last five. The numbers are really dragged down by the 13-10 loss to Dallas in Week 13, but for the most part the Saints simply haven't played up to their previous offensive standard in the last month and a half.

Here's a closer look at the offensive numbers in the first 11 games compared to these last five (again, tossing out the Week 17 game).

Saints Offensive DVOA by Week, 2018
Weeks 1-12 Weeks 13-16, 19
Total DVOA 26.5% -9.3%
Rank 4 22
Yd/Play 6.59 5.34
Pass DVOA 54.9% -7.7%
Rank 3 24
Yd/Play 8.34 6.05
Run DVOA 3.8% 0.0%
Rank 7 10
Yd/Play 4.58 4.30
As you can see, the decline here is all about Brees and the passing game. Real trend? Our old buddy Doug Farrar thinks so, writing an all-22 study of what's gone wrong with Brees' game over the last few weeks. Doug tags the primary culprit as a problem with Brees' mechanics under pressure.

Like Goff, Brees saw his numbers drop significantly under pressure, more than the average quarterback. For Brees, it was more about the yardage. Brees gained just 2.6 net yards per pass attempt (including scrambles) when he was under pressure, 29th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. The Saints managed a 34 percent success rate with Brees under pressure, which ranked 13th. That's a better rank than in raw yardage, but still a much lower rank than Brees' performance overall.

However, the drop in Brees' performance in Weeks 13-16 wasn't necessarily related to pressure. Yes, there was more pressure. The Saints ranked second in the league in lowest pressure rate allowed, but their pressure rate allowed went from 20.3 percent of pass plays through Week 12 to 29.3 percent of pass plays in Weeks 13-16.

However, it was Brees' performance when not under pressure that really declined in Weeks 13-16. His yards per play, average depth of target, and success rate on plays all dropped significantly. (Apologies for not having full numbers yet for the divisional round.)

Drew Brees, with and without Pressure, 2018
Weeks 1-12 Weeks 13-16
No Pressure
Yd/Play 9.7 7.2
Suc Rate 65% 51%
aDOT 7.7 5.8
with Pressure
Yd/Play 2.7 2.5
Suc Rate 35% 32%
aDOT 6.7 7.9
Even with this drop in his performance without pressure, obviously it is a lot better to get pressure on Brees than not. And the Rams led the league with a 36.0 percent pressure rate. The danger with the Rams is pressure up the middle, as Aaron Donald lapped the field with a league-leading 62.5 pressures and 20.5 sacks. Next to him is Ndamukong Suh, second on the Rams with 28 pressures. Two outside pass-rushers, Dante Fowler and Samson Ebukam, also had at least 25 pressures each.

Perhaps because they are so good in the front three, the Rams go against Wade Phillips' historical tendencies and don't blitz much. They only blitzed on 20.6 percent of pass plays this season, 21st in the league. It might make sense to blitz Brees more, since Brees this year was much better against a standard pass rush. For the entire season, Brees averages 8.0 yards per pass against a four-man rush and 6.6 yards per pass against a blitz. Both numbers have dropped during Brees' recent decline -- although last week, SIS only recorded the Eagles blitzing Brees three times, and Brees was 3-for-3 on these passes, including a 2-yard touchdown.

However, blitzing didn't necessarily work in the first Rams-Saints meetup. Brees was 9-for-12 with an average of 7.2 yards per pass on blitzes.


The other thing that didn't work in the first meeting: covering Saints No. 1 receiver Michael Thomas. With cornerback Aqib Talib out with an injury, the Rams counted on their other starting corner, Marcus Peters, to take on Thomas in man coverage. And Thomas destroyed the Rams with 211 total receiving yards. Against zones, Thomas caught 5 of 7 passes for 75 yards. Against man coverage, primarily by Peters, he caught 7 of 8 passes for 136 yards. Over half that yardage came on a 72-yard touchdown (24 yards in the air, 48 YAC) that gave New Orleans a 10-point lead late.

Peters had a slightly below average success rate this year (49 percent, 56th among qualifying corners) but what was really bad was his tendency for getting burned deep (9.7 yards per pass, 80th). Peters allowed completions on seven plays with 20 or more air yards; only six cornerbacks allowed more such plays. Talib's raw charting stats aren't fabulous, but they are better than the stats for Peters: 8.4 yards per pass, 52 percent success rate. And Peters was targeted three times as often in twice as many games.

However, there's a question of how often Talib will be on Thomas in this game. When the Rams have both Peters and Talib in the lineup, they tend to keep their cornerbacks to specific sides. Peters is on the offensive left and Talib is on the offensive right. For the season, the Rams ranked 24th on passes to the offensive left but second on passes to the offensive right. There's a massive split in that DVOA on passes to the right depending on whether Talib was in the lineup. But it's interesting to see that there's also a similar split in DVOA on passes to the left, an argument for the idea that having Talib healthy helps the entire defense by letting the Rams focus attention to the other side of the field:

L.A. Rams Defense, Offensive Left vs. Offensive Right, 2018
Left
DVOA Left
Yd/Pass Left
C% Right
DVOA Right
Yd/Pass Right
C%
Weeks 1-3 (with Talib) -19.7% 6.7 70% -79.3% 4.1 62%
Weeks 4-13 (without Talib) 18.3% 9.4 70% -11.3% 7.6 66%
Weeks 14-17 (with Talib) -12.9% 6.5 68% -59.0% 6.5 66%
(Talib played less than half the snaps in his first game back Week 13, so we've included that in with the games he did not play.)

The Saints' receiving corps is sometimes criticized as Thomas and a bunch of nobodys, but with Drew Brees throwing them the ball, those nobodys were highly efficient. It's outstanding for Thomas to have 23.1% receiving DVOA over 125 catches, but Tre'Quan Smith had 22.7% receiving DVOA and Keith Kirkwood had 23.5% receiving DVOA. Ted Ginn had a poor season, when healthy, with just -21.6% DVOA, but it was just a year ago that Ginn finished second among qualifying receivers with 34.8% DVOA.

One of these receivers is going to be covered by Nickell Robey-Coleman on each play, and Robey-Coleman was excellent as the slot cornerback, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass with a 67 percent success rate.

Like the Saints, the Rams have a stronger defense against short passes (sixth in DVOA) than against deep passes (22nd). Brees' accuracy on deep passes, like everything else, has been a problem since Week 13. In Weeks 1-12, he connected on 58 percent of deep passes. Since Week 13, including the divisional round, he has connected on 43 percent.

The Rams rank fifth in DVOA against tight ends, but the numbers are interesting: Los Angeles is efficient, but also tends to face a lot of passes to tight ends. The Rams allow an average of 67.0 yards to tight ends per game (compared to the league average of 52.7) but also rank fifth in lowest catch rate allowed (62 percent) and were tied for the league lead picking off eight passes intended for tight ends.

The Rams are fourth in DVOA against running backs as receivers. Alvin Kamara had only four catches (on five targets) for 34 yards in the first matchup, though one of those catches was a 16-yard touchdown.

Surprisingly, the Saints use play-action at a frequency below the league average, just 19 percent of pass plays. They gain 8.3 yards per pass on play-action, just 11th in the league. However, this is a good game for the Saints to run more play-action than usual, because the Rams allowed 8.8 yards per pass on play-action, worse than any defense except Green Bay.

The Saints, like most teams, use more personnel diversity than the Rams. The Saints used 11 personnel on a little over half their plays but also used 21, 12, and 22 personnel each on at least 8 percent of plays. The big heavy set was the least successful of these personnel groupings. The Saints had 4.4 yards per play and 44 percent success rate from 22 personnel. Each of the other three groupings averaged at least 6.2 yards and a 50 percent success rate. And the Rams defense was strongest against... 22 personnel. It was only 35 plays, but the Rams allowed just a 40 percent success rate with 3.5 average yards.

Where were the Rams weakest? Defending the thing that their offense is the best at: running the ball from spread-out 11 personnel. The Rams allowed a league-high 6.4 yards per carry on runs from 11 personnel, not including scrambles. However, the Saints were actually just kind of average running the ball from 11 personnel. Here's a look at Saints carries from their top four personnel groups, not considering whether or not the "tight end" here is a sixth offensive lineman or just a tight end:

Saints Runs by Personnel Group, 2018
Personnel Runs Yd/Run Suc Rate
11 178 4.5 49%
12 81 4.8 44%
21 63 5.6 52%
22 62 4.5 42%
Run defense is a significant weakness that the Saints can take advantage of. As noted earlier, the Rams were just 28th in run defense DVOA. The Saints were eighth in run DVOA and second, behind only the Rams, in adjusted line yards. The tiny decline in the running game at the end of the season looks more like random variation than the significant decline in the passing game.

Based on adjusted line yards, the weakness of the Rams run defense is more on the offensive left than up the middle or on the offensive right. In addition, the problem wasn't just with the defensive front. The Rams ranked 25th in second-level yards allowed per carry and 27th in open-field yards allowed per carry. They can allow some pretty big highlight-reel runs. Surprisingly, the Saints were not very high in these categories on offense (14th and 21st, respectively)

One last weird little split that I discovered from this season. The bigger the lead that the Rams have, the worse their defense gets.

Rams Defense by Current Score, 2018
Current Score Yd/Play DVOA DVOA Rk
Rams down 9+ 3.93 -41.0% 3
Rams down 1-8 5.08 -21.1% 4
Rams tied or up 1-8 6.23 -0.4% 16
Rams up 9+ 6.45 14.0% 27
This suggests that it's easier for the Saints to get back into the game if they fall behind early. Note that these numbers don't conflict with what I wrote at the start about the Rams improving on defense in late-and-close situations; that average defense when tied or up 1-8 becomes -46.7% defensive DVOA when tied or up 1-8 points in the fourth quarter.

SPECIAL TEAMS
On the surface, the Saints had a better year on special teams than the Rams did, but that's entirely a product of the injury to Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein in Weeks 2-6. If we remove Zuerlein's replacements, the Rams would move up from 17th to ninth in special teams DVOA, with the Saints ranking 10th.

For the most part, each team's relative strengths cancel each other out. Wil Lutz missed only two field goals all year, but Zuerlein has been plenty good in past seasons and has a stronger leg. (Zuerlein was 6-for-9 on kicks over 45 yards, while Lutz was 4-for-5.) The Saints got more value on kick returns, mostly when Alvin Kamara took a few of them late in the year, but Zuerlein had more gross and net kickoff value than Lutz. The Rams (JoJo Natson) were slightly better on punt returns, but the Saints had slightly better punt coverage. Johnny Hekker, who was our No. 1 punter of 2016 and No. 3 punter of 2017, had a bit of an off-year, ranking just 11th in gross punt value and 13th in net punt value. Not that we're expecting a lot of punts in this game. Heck, even if these teams line up to punt, they may not punt. Hekker runs more fakes than any other punter in the league, and the Saints have Taysom Hill around to play upback or run gadget plays.

OUTLOOK
Look for the game to start out exciting from the get-go: the Rams rank 28th in defensive DVOA in the first quarter before improving to 12th from the second quarter onward, while the Saints are 31st before improving to sixth from the second quarter onward.

Picking this game depends a lot on how many weeks you think makes a real trend. I think most of us accept that the improvement of the Saints defense since the Eli Apple trade is real. That's over ten weeks of data. The decline of the Saints passing game has come in just Drew Brees' last five games. Is that enough evidence to accept this decline as "real?" Keeping the Rams' passing game down is a tough assignment, even for a defense that's been strong against the pass like the Saints of the last three months. It's still going to be hard for the Saints to outscore the Rams unless Brees has a strong game and reverses his recent downturn. But if the Drew Brees from the first three months of the season is on the field Sunday, the Saints are the better team because they clearly have the better defense.

My gut feeling is that specific matchups and the unknown of the Saints' passing slump give the Rams a better chance to win this game than the Vegas line or the top-line DVOA ratings would suggest. If you balance that out with home-field advantage, you still end up with a 50-50 tossup. And I think this game is closer to 50-50 than 60-40 Saints.
"We're not the smartest people in the world. We go down the straightaway and turn left. That's literally what we do." -- Clint Bowyer
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Pruitt »

sancarlos wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:44 pm Tom Brady had 171 interceptions in his career. My main issue with both Drew Brees and Dan Marino is/was their tendency to force balls into coverage and the resulting interceptions. Brees has 233 and Marino had 252 career interception.
That is where Brady stands out. He's had year after year of insane TD/Int ratios.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Joe K »

Pruitt wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:45 pm
sancarlos wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:44 pm Tom Brady had 171 interceptions in his career. My main issue with both Drew Brees and Dan Marino is/was their tendency to force balls into coverage and the resulting interceptions. Brees has 233 and Marino had 252 career interception.
That is where Brady stands out. He's had year after year of insane TD/Int ratios.
Brady is tied for 2nd all-time in lowest career interception rate. Rodgers is first. The guy tied with Brady for second: Colin Kaepernick. Too bad he’s not as good as Nathan Peterman and therefore can’t get a roster spot.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by mister d »

Too bad he chose to lead the league in knee downs!
Johnnie wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

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Had a very vivid dream early this morning where I was at the Super Bowl with my brother and this woman from a French TV show I watched with my wife yesterday.

Anyway, the game was dull and low scoring and the Saints lost by 4.

To the Chargers.

Not that I would have bet a lot of money based on a strange dream, but still.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by sancarlos »

Bronto, thanks for posting the Football Outsider pieces.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by rass »

I don’t know shit, but it really looked like the DB (Joyner) could have made a better play on the ball there than trying catch it on the off chance it went through Ginn’s hands.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by rass »

Troy agrees.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

What a fucking joke this league is.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by brian »

You will never ever be able to justify NFL officiating.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

Now we just need a questionable illegal contact call against the Saints
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Joe K »

That was about as consequential a missed call as I’ve ever seen. It was the textbook definition of PI and the Saints would’ve been able to run the clock down and take a chip shot with just seconds left.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

brian wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:01 pm You will never ever be able to justify NFL officiating.
You'd think they could craft a way to retroactively apply blatantly obvious penalties.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

Maybe it's the refs' revenge for the stupid fans with the whistles
Last edited by EdRomero on Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by brian »

Johnnie wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:05 pm
brian wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:01 pm You will never ever be able to justify NFL officiating.
You'd think they could craft a way to retroactively apply blatantly obvious penalties.
PI can be reviewed in the CFL.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by EdRomero »

Belichick has been saying all calls should be allowed to be reviewed. Maybe this play will do it
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by A_B »

EdRomero wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:12 pm Belichick has been saying all calls should be allowed to be reviewed. Maybe this play will do it
Oh god. You must not be a college basketball fan. This is a terrible idea.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by sancarlos »

"What a bunch of pedantic pricks." - sybian
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by Johnnie »

Fucking awful. And I used to hate the Saints due to my living in Louisiana. But damn, that's a disgusting way to lose.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Post by brian »

PI should be reviewable.
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