If something crazy happens like the Giants trading up to the first pick tomorrow to take a left guard, I might release a version 2. But in the meantime, since the trades for the first pick seem to happen before the draft, I’m not going to mock a crazy one until it actually happens, even though I don’t think the Cardinals will end up using the pick if they don’t take Murray. I did for real think about having the Bengals jump up to #1 for Kyler Murray, as unlikely as that is, because ehhh why the fuck not.
Speaking of trades, I think people should include trades when they make mock drafts. But why, if this is a pointless exercise existing only to give questionable information to people who would gladly read an article written by Adolf Hitler’s dick so long as it were about the NFL? Well, it may be borderline impossible to predict the NFL draft, but it’s also nearly impossible to win the Powerball. Yet if you’re going to play, you’re going to pick a number that is actually capable of winning. And since there are trades every single year in the first round of the draft – an average of 5 each year on draft day since 2010, with at least 4 every year excluding 2015 (only 2 that year) – if you don’t mock it, you’re just not being realistic. So if you’re gonna shoot, shoot your best shot, iiite?
Finally, this mock is a combination of what I would do and what I think will happen and ultimately something I just do because I like to do it. Are some of these picks going to be hilariously wrong? Yes. Will this be obvious to some people well in advance? Sure. Are some of these mocked selections just plain stupid? Yes. But – do I give a shit? No. I don’t. And shit, nobody would have predicted Terrell Edmunds or Rashaad Penny last year so who the hell really knows. I don’t know every team’s tendencies, I don’t know how much is smoke and how much is fire about prospect interviews and general demeanor, I don’t know their medicals, I don’t know who broke their infant son’s arm or pissed on a tollbooth attendant in November. I don’t know how QBs do in their interviews, and I don’t know how much is just Charley Casserly continuing to traffic in wrongness to sell his draft interview prep service or whatever the hell he does. I’m just guessin’ blind, man. Alright so here we go.
1. SAN FRANCISCO trades with ARIZONA for the first overall pick.
SAN FRANCISCO selects Nick Bosa, EDGE, el Universidad de Ohio Estada.
It seems pretty clear that San Francisco wants Bosa, and I think that Arizona would rather have Quinnen Williams and some extra picks to help their rebuild along. Similar to the 49ers getting the Bears to cough up a bit extra to ensure they get Trubisky, I think the Cardinals could finesse a 3rd or 4th rounder or so out of the Niners to do the same. And they would have a compelling argument – some other team may really want Kyler Murray, the Cardinals could certainly quite feasibly select Bosa themselves and shit, the Bucs have been whiffing on Edge rushers for as long as I can remember and I briefly considered having them move up to take Bosa. But in the end, I don’t think that will happen.
Does that mean I don’t think there’s anything to the Kyler Murray smoke? No. I do think there’s something to it, I just think in the end the Cardinals will pass. Or hell, they could still do something like this and take him 2nd.
Anyway, since I was wrong on Joey Bosa, I’m not going to make the same mistake on bro Nick. He seems like a better prospect than Joey as well – more of a pure edge guy than Joey was, at least from an athletic perspective. Like, the flexibility and bend is crazy for a guy this size, almost like Myles Garrett a few years back:
I think Edge Rusher is one the hardest positions to project, because pass rushers “lose” so many of their reps. If a DE pressures a QB once every 15 plays – not even 7% of the time – he’s going to the Pro Bowl and the offensive lineman responsible is being cut. So you’re watching a lot of guys making no impact and trying to judge who is making no impact better than the other guys. You also don’t know their responsibilities – in college in particular, edge guys are playing a contain role first on many plays. They can’t just blindly rush with half of the teams running spready college offenses (though these are becoming much more commonplace in the NFL). The only ones I was ever sure on were Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett. Am I that sure on Bosa? Not quite – I am not quite considering him a “generational” prospect to add to my short list*. But he’s in the tier of really, really good prospects right below that. He’s strong, he’s got the bend, he’s got the juice to fly around the edge and the hands to counter:
His athletic profile is nearly elite. Mix that with the bloodlines? I think he’s going to go first overall. He’s a very, very good chance at a star at a position where you don’t always see that and GMs would wade through an hourlong acid bukkake in order to take an Edge Rusher fitting that profile.
*”Generational” may be a bad term because there may be too many to literally mean generational but whatever, let’s just call it “extremely fuckin’ elite”. The list so far since I’ve paid attention is:
1. Reggie Bush (whoops)
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Andrew Luck
4. Khalil Mack
5. Myles Garrett
6. Leonard Fournette (ok so I guess ignore running backs when they are on this list)
7. Quentin Nelson
8. Ndamukong Suh (forgot about him in previous iterations), and…
2. ARIZONA selects Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Quinnen Williams is incredible. He’s literally double teamed on like 95% of snaps (I’m not joking or even exaggerating to my knowledge) and it doesn’t matter. He just runs through them. He looks a bit like Suh did at Nebraska where if he’s not your main focus on every snap, he’s going to wreck that play. He’s also a very smart player who puts himself in great position to make plays against the run. He’s incredible. A lot of people think he’s the best player in this draft, and I obviously agree. However, Bosa is no slouch himself and plays a more “valuable” position, so Williams has to settle for 2nd this year.
(Sidenote: I had changed my mind to consider interior pressure more important but this from PFF is interesting - https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... ns-supreme . They make the case that you can scheme against interior pressure more easily than against edge pressure, which is sort of counterintuitive but so are a lot of things in this world. I happen to chalk a lot of it up to worse results for the offense when edge pressure gets home but either way it’s interesting.)
3. NY JETS select Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
Everybody has Josh Allen as the next Edge Rusher off the board after Bosa. Well, except me. I’m not a huge fan of this year’s Edge group (sounds like a Pornhub tag), outside of Bosa and Brian Burns. And the Jets need Edge rushers. I started capitalizing that earlier and now it’s annoying that I can’t stop without being inconsistent.
Burns is the only other Edge guy in my opinion outside of Bosa who has good flexibility/bend and hand technique in this class. (This keeps getting even more Pornhub-ier). It’s not as good as Bosa’s but it comes in a more athletic body, at least according to Combine metrics. Burns has good tape and tested extremely well, so why is he being mocked in the 10s while Josh Allen gets top 5 hype? Do I just irrationally dislike all Josh Allens? I don’t know.
Regardless, Burns can bend into the QB:
…and he has the technique to counter blocks around the edge:
He also has a motor that does not quit, like a lot of the pass rushers in this class (it’s a very good year for high character guys on the field – these dudes’ motors run hot). He’s a pretty decent run defender, and he even drops back into coverage occasionally. I wouldn’t depend on it – he’s definitely best going after the QB – but he’s got the ability to do it if he lands with a 3-4 team like NYJ. (Those distinctions matter less and less now as most teams spend 70+% of their time in sub packages but whatever). Burns and Bosa are the only guys that don’t seem to get regularly held up around the edge (and maybe Chase Winovich), and to me they are the only ones I’d trust in the top 10. This guy is a player and I don’t think he’s lasting anywhere near Green Bay or wherever people are slotting him now.
4. CINCINNATI trades with OAKLAND for the 4th pick.
CINCINNATI selects Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Now it’s time to really get crazy.
Will this happen? Almost assuredly not, especially when Mike Brown remembers how much he has to pay the 4th pick.
Should this happen? Hell yeah it should. Why not?
Andy Dalton is like a thermometer. He tells you the temperature of your offense. If you have a really good offense, like the Bengals did a few years ago, Andy Dalton will play at a high level. He will, for real. But if your offense is not so good? Andy Dalton will struggle a ton. And that’s great and all but it’s been almost 10 years and it’s time to move on and look for a guy who can play well without having elite guys around him. Is Kyler Murray that guy? I don’t know…does a bear shit on another bear’s chest? Probably depends what city you’re in.
Kyler Murray presents the same issues that Marcus Mariota and Bob Griffin III and Baker Mayfield presented….they play in an offense so good that it’s very tough to determine how good they are really playing. Guys are WIDE the f open regularly, teams barely play any defense in the conference, and the offensive line keeps the QB clean for minutes at a time. These are relatively typical windows that Murray is throwing into:
Those windows are big enough for Antonio Brown to throw furniture through them.
He’s certainly very accurate into these windows, and he does obviously have to throw into tighter windows at times and often does so quite well. It’s not that he doesn’t necessarily have the capability to do it, it’s that there aren’t that many instances to project him as confidently as a guy like Jameis Winston, who was regularly throwing balls through glory holes to plodding wide receivers running 12 yard curls. And we all see how that has turned out, so in the end who the hell knows what’s going to happen.
In addition to the windows that are naturally created by the offensive scheme, the Oklahoma team is just completely stacked. They have NFL guys all over this offense. One of them is Marquise Brown, who threatens every single defense that doesn’t focus on him with a 70 yard TD every single play. Another is Cody Ford, part of a line that just manhandles defenses and generally gives Murray hours to throw. And they’ve got Rodney Anderson, a running back who has first round tape but will fall in this draft due to injury. They are stacked, just like last year, just like when Baker Mayfield put up crazy stats throwing into the same windows. Just like when Mariota did the same at Oregon. While we may be cursed to never knowing how good Marcus Mariota is or isn’t, Baker Mayfield is already on a Hall of Fame level trajectory, so none of this means you can’t take Kyler Murray high. It didn’t mean you couldn’t take Aaron Rodgers high, and it didn’t mean you couldn’t take Kyle Boller high. All of these guys are risks and traditional QBs – like Winston – also bust. So do guards and corners and everyone else. You’re just less confident in your projection is all.
Murray has a great arm – naturally, as I don’t know if you’ve heard but he also played baseball. It’s really easy to compare him to Russell Wilson, but – he looks just like Russell Wilson. He doesn’t have the cannon that Wilson had, but he throws with more touch. He’s much more tethered to the pocket than Wilson, who runs away from clean pockets like they are trying to have premarital sex with him (which may be height related), and he is absolutely dangerous when he takes off and runs. And unlike say Lamar Jackson, he doesn’t really take big hits. He’s a very smart runner. Was this ideal 15 years ago? No, but outside of Ja Rule being relevant in the news, it’s not 15 years ago. Teams run different offenses that are more college-y and friendlier to QBs who run around, especially for ones who can sneak into your house through the doggy door. Just because Murray is usually looking to throw first doesn’t mean he won’t take off running for no reason at times:
Running against a three man rush, into the defensive end:
Running outside into pressure and forcing a throwaway when he could have made throwing room by stepping up:
But even when he does run needlessly, it often has good results. However, that’s not necessarily the case in the NFL, as Lamar Jackson quickly discovered. But Lamar Jackson learned, and so can Murray. Even if Charlie Casserly thinks he’s disinterested or whatever. Maybe the baseball thing will scare teams off, I don’t know. I’m assuming it won’t.
Murray is going to be a nightmare to defend against, if even a little of his throwing ability goes along with him and translates to the NFL. And we are picking nits with him, to some degree. If he does have one major flaw, though, to me it’s his tendency to randomly just heave balls into coverage sometimes (particularly when pressured).
Against Alabama, the guys weren’t wide open, the running lanes weren’t there, and Murray struggled. So it’s definitely a concern. But all of these guys have concerns, every year. And it’s Alabama. They’re pretty awesome. I think the pros outweigh the cons and a team like Cincinnati, who is kind of trapped in NFL purgatory (I’m talking about a middle-tier team with a meh QB, not “Ohio”) – if they see a shot to go up and get a top QB, they should take it.
5. TAMPA BAY selects Devin White, ILB, LSU
Tough spot for Tampa Bay, but I don’t see much of a move out for them here. Since ILB is a huge need for them and since there are no Edge guys here that I like enough to take at 5th, I’ll just keep them in this spot for Devin White.
White has some concerns with his processing, just like every single other ILB in this class and arguably in most classes, but his athleticism is just insane. He’s the fastest, strongest guy on the field. He looks like Fournette playing linebacker.
Every year it’s “oh this LB struggles getting off blocks” – well yeah, they pretty much all do when 300+ pound guards square them up. Ray Lewis struggled at getting off blocks, too. Leighton Vander Esch was running around Boise last year crushin’ hoes, slowly reading his keys and occasionally getting stuck on blocks but when he saw the ball and was able to sneak through the trash, he would run to it and tackle the shit out of it. Now he’s doing that in Dallas at an All-Pro level (the hoes too probably). I think White could do the same thing. He’s one of my favorite players in this year’s draft.
The mental processing thing could be a problem, sure – but I don’t think it’s bad enough to drop him (unlike with Devin Bush). He’s seek and destroy.
6. NY GIANTS select Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
Now it’s time to start doing dumb stuff.
Montez Sweat KILLED the Combine. He murdered it. (https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/montez-sweat)
But he doesn’t play like that.
Sweat is strong as an ox (regardless of what the bench press result indicates) and will push offensive linemen right back into the QB’s lap or just throw them on the ground pretty regularly. Watch him bury this K-State tackle alive (Dalton Risner, who I have late in this mock):
So, strong rusher with speed and quickness, right? What’s not to love!
Well, if you didn’t know what Sweat’s timed athleticism indicated, you’d think he was an average athlete at best. There’s no bend. There’s no cornering ability. Not really any burst. Not much of a motor. Nothing special in terms of technique. He’s a complete athletic projection.
He’s slow to turn into the QB. He’s rigid and uncomfortable coming off the corner. He let up well before the play was over. He runs like Shaq Lawson. I do not like Montez Sweat at all in this draft.
But – some team will. His athletic profile is just that gaudy that some team is going to overdraft him and hope that they can harness it into an elite Edge Rusher. And maybe they can – hell, the Giants did it with JPP once. But I think that’s the exception. Montez Sweat reminds me of Josh Sweat from last year (not sure if there’s any relation). Despite what the metrics suggest, they just aren’t overly impressive on the field going after the QB. So yeah, I totally think this is a Gettleman move. I don’t think they are going to draft a QB this year either. Eli’s time to shine, baby!
7. JACKSONVILLE selects TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
This is a tough one to predict, as Jacksonville can go in a lot of different ways. But as teams suddenly start to remember how valuable do-it-all tight ends can be, why not take one if you’re a team like Jacksonville with a lot of holes to address offensively?
Hockenson is a 5-star TE prospect just like OJ Howard was. He can block very well (though some of the hype is getting a tad ridiculous – he’s not a left tackle), and to me he often actually looks more explosive as a receiver than Noah Fant. Tight ends that are instant mismatches the moment they step onto the field are so rare and valuable, so I don’t think 7th overall is too high to take one.
8. DETROIT selects Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
It seems like the city of Detroit has needed a corner for almost as long as it’s needed functioning infrastructure, so once again I’ll mock one to them in the first.
Greedy Williams is a big, rangy, ballhawkish, athletic specimen of a corner who is going to get taken in spite of some red flags that might push down lesser corners. His technique is often poor and just looks lazy off the snap – if he had Denzel Ward’s feet we’d arrest him because that would be an awful crime. Jk jk if he had Ward’s feet he might be an All-Pro lock. He loses focus at times and gets beat at the end of plays. But for the most part, he just overcomes the footwork issue and jogs alongside WRs, absolutely blanketing them. It is insane for someone this size to turn and run and change direction as smoothly as Tre’Davious White, but Williams does.
He’s just like, jogging with those guys and blanketing them. He’s also got a huge wingspan to knock away deep passes and he finds and takes away the ball if you give him a chance. His tape isn’t quite as good as Byron Murphy’s, but he’s such a rare athlete who actually translates his athleticism to the field that he’s probably going to be taken much earlier.
9. BUFFALO selects Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
The Bills can go in a multitude of ways here, as the roster is not all that great up in Buffalo. They can absolutely take defense to keep that side of the ball strong, because if it is not strong, they will fuckin’ suck. Or they can help out Josh Allen – either with a pass catching option, or a blocker. (Dark horse might be TJ Hockenson if he’s available). I’m going to go the blocker route, as their offensive line last year was mostly devoid of actual talent.
Mainly, I really like their OC and after they dropped the dead weight that is Kelvin Benjamin – who probably got his name because he contributes absolute zero to your offense – they were able to scheme their undrafted scrub WRs open quite regularly, especially with Allen’s mobility stressing defenses so much and buying them time. Robert Foster may be a nobody but he’s fast and he got open deep so who cares what his pedigree is? Take the massive tackle and give Allen even more time to run around.
Jawaan Taylor is a massive, strong tackle who moves people like Ronnie Stanley but can actually move. Here he is (#65) pushing Kentucky’s DT into the Gulf:
Don’t overdraft DK Metcalf because he’s fast when you need linemen so badly and a guy like Taylor is available. And I don’t think Buffalo will.
10. DENVER selects Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Initially I had Denver trading up for Lock, but after taking Murray out of the top spot it just felt too forced, almost like Joe Flacco threw it. Also – the last like a million first round QBs that haven’t gone 1st or 2nd overall had been picked by teams that traded up to do so. Just seems like the current meta. Oh well. All things end eventually.
I buy the Denver/Lock stuff, and I can’t see how Elway can actually go through a full season with the current iteration of Joey Flaccs as his QB. He can’t, right? I don’t think he can. Prove me wrong, Johnny!
So the Broncos will take a QB here because, well, because they kind of have to. And the more I watch of Lock, the more I like him. The arm is exceptional – he just effortlessly flicks the ball downfield like a dart. His deep accuracy is generally really good. He doesn’t flinch in the face of pressure:
He’s often holding the ball as long as possible, looking for a throw to open up. He’s like Ben Roethlisberger in that regard. I’ve seen him get compared also to Josh Allen for the arm strength and I can kind of see like a boring version of Allen where the big arm is there (but isn’t quite as good), the bouts of inaccuracy are there but not nearly as often, and the timed athleticism is there from the Combine measurements. However, with Lock, outside of the weird misses, he’s generally quite accurate (when set and when on the run). But, on the flipside, the athleticism absolutely does not show up on the field and he is no threat to run. I don’t know if this is potentially related to his seemingly slower processing before making throws. Maybe he just doesn’t like running. I know I don’t. Cardio is dumb.
The obliviousness to pressure is not always a good thing, as he often seems incapable of getting rid of the ball quickly almost as if he simply can’t process as fast as say a Tom Brady or Phil Rivers type (see above), but it’s worked for guys like Roethlisberger and so far to a degree Allen, though they may be outliers. I’d still take a shot on the tools that Lock has over trotting fuckin’ Joe Flacco out there, and he may improve these deficiencies as he progresses in the NFL.
One knock against Lock was that he put his numbers up against weak competition. And he did, but watching some of his bad games, he often got ZERO help from his receivers. They were awful. So it’s hard to tell how much is on the supporting cast and how much is on Lock (he certainly wasn’t blameless in those games, particularly v. Alabama).
(1 of 3)
