The 2019 NHL Offseason

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:50 am

Marner I'd go all-in for. He's just barely 22 so even a max deal is just getting to age 30. Also maybe a little curious if there's a(nother) deal to be made with Tampa to bring JT Miller back on the relative cheap so they get some cap relief.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:01 am

This Flyers stuff is too fucking funny.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:06 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:01 am This Flyers stuff is too fucking funny.

Are you talking about the Braun trade? He's a fine player but not sure how he rates a second and a third. That's just crazy. At his salary and given it's expiring, seems like just a third (or maybe a second if you're being charitable) would have been sufficient.

ETA: With standard caveats about how teams value certain guys differently, etc. I feel pretty damn confident if the Flyers had offered a second and a third for Colin Miller, VGK would have jumped on it and Miller is six years younger (IIRC) and under the exact same contract ($3.8M) for three more years.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:19 pm

And Braun is the exact type AV will play for all the wrong minutes at all the wrong leverage. All-in GAR/WAR stats are still sketchy for hockey, but Braun and Niskanen were both bottom 10th percentile 1,000 minute d-men last year.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:20 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:06 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:01 am This Flyers stuff is too fucking funny.
Are you talking about the Braun trade? He's a fine player but not sure how he rates a second and a third. That's just crazy. At his salary and given it's expiring, seems like just a third (or maybe a second if you're being charitable) would have been sufficient.

ETA: With standard caveats about how teams value certainly guys differently, etc. I feel pretty damn confident if the Flyers had offered a second and a third for Colin Miller, VGK would have jumped on it and Miller is six years younger (IIRC) and under a reasonable contract for three more years.

Braun isn't a Norris candidate, but he's been a top pair defenseman (with Vlasic) who has played against opponents' top lines for most of his career. But, at his age and salary he seems an odd fit for the Flyers. I thought he'd go to a team that is in more of a win-now mode.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:23 pm

I lied, Niskanen was ~15th.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:24 pm

I like the deal a lot from the Sharks' perspective. A better return than I would have expected, plus it helps the salary cap pinch a bit, and the Sharks have some good young defensemen coming up who can replace him.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:34 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:20 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:06 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:01 am This Flyers stuff is too fucking funny.
Are you talking about the Braun trade? He's a fine player but not sure how he rates a second and a third. That's just crazy. At his salary and given it's expiring, seems like just a third (or maybe a second if you're being charitable) would have been sufficient.

ETA: With standard caveats about how teams value certainly guys differently, etc. I feel pretty damn confident if the Flyers had offered a second and a third for Colin Miller, VGK would have jumped on it and Miller is six years younger (IIRC) and under a reasonable contract for three more years.
Braun isn't a Norris candidate, but he's been a top pair defenseman (with Vlasic) who has played against opponents' top lines for most of his career. But, at his age and salary he seems an odd fit for the Flyers. I thought he'd go to a team that is in more of a win-now mode.

So we're agreeing then. If you like the trade, the Flyers got rooked. I don't even know if Miller is on the trading block, though it seems pretty likely he is (and again...who knows what the Flyers are valuing), but Miller's WAR is comparable (a little better) than Braun, he's six years younger and is under contract for three more years instead of one. Maybe the fact that they can walk away from Braun after one year helped make the deal work for Philly but I'm still not understanding why they're sending a second and a third for him in that case.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:40 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:34 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:20 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:06 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:01 am This Flyers stuff is too fucking funny.
Are you talking about the Braun trade? He's a fine player but not sure how he rates a second and a third. That's just crazy. At his salary and given it's expiring, seems like just a third (or maybe a second if you're being charitable) would have been sufficient.

ETA: With standard caveats about how teams value certainly guys differently, etc. I feel pretty damn confident if the Flyers had offered a second and a third for Colin Miller, VGK would have jumped on it and Miller is six years younger (IIRC) and under a reasonable contract for three more years.
Braun isn't a Norris candidate, but he's been a top pair defenseman (with Vlasic) who has played against opponents' top lines for most of his career. But, at his age and salary he seems an odd fit for the Flyers. I thought he'd go to a team that is in more of a win-now mode.
So we're agreeing then. If you like the trade, the Flyers got rooked. I don't even know if Miller is on the trading block, though it seems pretty likely he is (and again...who knows what the Flyers are valuing), but Miller's WAR is comparable (a little better) than Braun, he's six years younger and is under contract for three more years instead of one. Maybe the fact that they can walk away from Braun after one year helped make the deal work for Philly but I'm still not understanding why they're sending a second and a third for him in that case.

Yeah, I would have thought the Flyers would have wanted Miller over Braun, given the age factor. I firmly believe Braun is the better defensive defenseman for now, but, the Flyers ought to be looking to the future.

Another factor that makes this an odd fit is Braun's style of play, which is very UN-Philadelphia. He's not a hitter, and he's pretty passive physically. His best traits are his stick-checking and skating.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:43 pm

That's just a steal for SJ in my opinion. And they could really use the picks. It's a win-win.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:44 pm

That's an AV thing. He wants his forwards flying everywhere and prefers his defensemen do absolutely nothing versus risk getting burned being aggressive.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:57 pm

This ESPN+ piece on trade tiers speculates that VGK might be interested in trading for PK Subban, which would be beyond fascinating (cornering the market on Subbans!), but I'm not sure how they can make the numbers work even if Subban's deal isn't THAT bad ($9M AAV through 21-22).

Presumably any deal for Subban would include Miller in addition to whatever other assets (VGK still have a boatload of picks) which cuts the cap difference down to $5M/year, but they still need room to re-sign Gusev and Karlsson, which will cost about $7M a year at best (probably closer to $8M). Plus some other RFAs/UFAs that will get around the league minimum but still eat up another $5M a year total (Subban, M., Engelland, maybe Bellemare, etc.)

I'm still thinking Vegas will probably trade both Colin Miller AND Reilly Smith in the next week or two, the latter of which especially will suck IMO, but that will solve a lot of cap issues and possibly free up just enough space to swing a deal for Subban if they can make one work.

ETA: Cody Eakin is another likely trade chip as well and they might be able to sell a little high on him after he scored 20+ last year. I don't see how there's any way whatsoever both Eakin and Miller are on the team next year though.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:07 pm

Did Gallant's time in Montreal overlap with Subban's?

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:08 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:07 pm Did Gallant's time in Montreal overlap with Subban's?

I think it might have. If any team is capable of taking on the PK Subban circus, it's Vegas.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:57 pm

All Karlssons should go to San Jose.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:21 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:57 pm All Karlssons should go to San Jose.

I'll trade William Karlsson for Timo Meier.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:15 pm

AV pretty badly mismanaged Hayes in NY and Philadelphia just invested the #2 overall pick 24 months ago in a now locked in 3C. Amazing offseason.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:50 pm

I feel the Flyers coupe de grace is going to be trading Ghost Bear for pennies on the dollar.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:02 pm

Had to recoup the 2020 3rd they gave up in the Braun deal.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:25 pm

Ducks buyout Corey Perry

Cap hit for the buyout:
19/20 - $2.625 mil
20/21 - $6.625 mil
21/22 - $2 mil
22/23 - $2 mil

Who wants him July 1?

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:33 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:25 pm Who wants him July 1?

Not me!

Post by **brian** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:40 pm

Sale of the Coyotes to Alex Meruelo was approved by Board of Governors today by the way.

With some time to think about it, this is the last chance for hockey in Phoenix. I know a bit about Meruelo and he's not the most patient guy in the world. He'll talk a good game, but the full-court press to get taxpayer money for a new arena somewhere closer to downtown will kick into high gear soon enough. Maybe even soon enough to get something on the ballot in Maricopa County for the 2020 election.

If that fails -- which is likely -- then one of two things will happen. Meruelo will seek to get the Coyotes moved to Houston for the 2021-22 season himself or he'll just sell to the Fertitta family (at a fairly decent profit probably since the value of the franchise will increase by at least $100M in Houston) with the approval of Bettman. Then the Fertittas will then move the Coyotes to Houston for the 2021-22 season.

So TL;DR -- the Coyotes ultimate long-term fate should be known by the end of 2020 I'd wager.

(Also of note: Meruelo is the first Latino majority owner in NHL history.)

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:22 pm

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:13 pm

Awards

Post by **brian** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:39 pm

He’s already a winner.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:54 am

Johnny narrowly finishes 4th behind McJesus in Hart Voting. That would have been hilarious. A lot of Oiler fans would have lost their minds.

Post by **brian** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:29 pm

NHL wasting no time putting Vegas and San Jose back together. They'll open the season on Oct. 2 in Vegas as the second half of an NBCSN doubleheader with Blues banner raising as the early game (likely vs. Chicago). (All home openers to be announced tomorrow with full schedule on Monday or Tuesday).

Post by **brian** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:16 am

Don't get to say this too often, but the NHL got it right with the changes to video review. I think the best change is just making it a minor penalty for delay of game for any failed challenge (including goaltender interference). That should cut down on the number of GI calls reviewed and overall actually increase the average speed of games even when factoring in the additional plays that can now be reviewed.

Post by **brian** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:07 pm

Two of the four meetings between VGK and San Jose will be the first two games of the season - Oct. 2 in Vegas and Oct. 4 in San Jose. Home opener for each.

Post by **brian** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:22 pm

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:32 pm

Caley's become really good. She works for the team, and probably got the job mainly based on her father at first, but I've been impressed lately.

Figuring out what LTIR means for the Lightning cap is a real labyrinth. Apparently not much in the long run, but potentially a little in the short term.

Sorry to see him have to retire, but I'm not surprised by this at all.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:34 pm

So weird how teams keep respecting limits on 30+ players and running out 20-somethings with injuries/conditions.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:34 pm

Also, if/when we trade Kreider tonight know I’m crying.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:49 pm

Pretty on-brand for the NHL to not even know yet what the total cap $ number is for next season. Sheesh.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:45 am

Subban traded to New Jersey for Santini, Davies and two 2nds.

Post by **brian** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Interesting. Devils going all-in to try and keep Hall. Had to be done.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:23 pm

Not a big haul for a name as big as Subban. Davies is a strong prospect, Santini is nothing. Devils will be fun to watch, especially if Hughes lives up to his billing.

And, Marleau gets traded to the Hurricanes, along with a first and a seventh, for only a sixth in return. Clearly, the Leafs desperately wanted to unload that last year of Patty's contract. I've always been a big fan of Marleau, but this speaks to the wisdom of Sharks' GM Doug Wilson. Two years ago he offered Marleau a two-year deal, and he went to Toronto because they offered a guaranteed third year. Now look where that got the Leafs. Marleau is revered in San Jose but you've got to rein in emotion, even with beloved veterans. I bet Detroit wishes that Ken Holland hadn't had to learn that lesson the hard way.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:43 pm

Carolina will probably buy out Markeau so he could return to San Jose for a million.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:12 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:43 pm Carolina will probably buy out Markeau so he could return to San Jose for a million.

As much as it would be a feel-good story, I doubt that will occur. Sharks have kids they want to play. But, you never now. For $1 million, it could happen.

Post by **brian** » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:31 pm

Vegas drafted a Brazilian* in the fifth round — I would have to think the first Brazilian-born player in the history of the NHL?

*Brazilian who grew up in Finland it should be said.

ETA: Ah shit, born in Finland but half-Brazilian.