NBA Offseason

[Johnnie]

Not shocking, but simultaneously the exact reason why people were up his ass about his future in the first place. Don't sign a 1 & 1 and think "No, this is wrong of you to ask about my future."

[Joe K]

Durant’s likely going to miss all of next season but it makes sense for him to opt out so that he can lock in a longterm deal now just in case he had setbacks in his rehab. By all accounts he’ll still have his pick of max offers.

[Joe K]

I thought Charlotte was going to offer him a supermax, but I guess not. Kemba is not quite as good a basketball player as Kyrie but he’s a better teammate and better astronomer.

[mister d]

That's stupid, he should be going home.

[DSafetyGuy]

Is there any reason for Charlotte to offer the supermax to Kemba other than as a sign-and-trade? I mean, they are mediocre with him (between 33-39 wins in four of the last five years with a 48-win outlier) and would like to know if there is any compelling reason to not start from scratch (the real problem is with their player evaluation and probably player development personnel). I get that he is somewhat of a box office draw in that "he's our star" kind of sense and his presence creates the impression that they are trying to win games, but I don't know if that is enough to tie themselves to a contract like that with the dead weight they've surrounded him with.

They're only committed to Miles Bridges in two years, so maybe bottoming out and trying to build on his timeline makes more sense than tying themselves to a point guard about to enter his age-29 season.

[A_B]

STAN MODE ENGAGE

[mister d]

Which means everyone wonders who #42 in that draft was.

[duff]

Which means everyone wonders who #42 in that draft was.

Zaza.

[Pruitt]

I wanted to compare Jordan and James' seasons at the age of 34 - obviously, both were dominant.

One - of the many - thing that jumped out at me was the fact that other than his 2nd season, and the part season after he quit baseball and his first year with the Wizards, Jordan never played less than 78 games a season. 12 out of 15 years! 9 times playing all 82 games.

[mister d]

Its kinda funny that Jordan missed 5 of his 10 age 30-39 seasons but he'll never get called a quitter or whatever LeBron would if he did the same vanity NFL project or whatever and took another three off as "retired".

[Giff]

Its kinda funny that Jordan missed 5 of his 10 age 30-39 seasons but he'll never get called a quitter or whatever LeBron would if he did the same vanity NFL project or whatever and took another three off as "retired".

There is the whole "he was actually suspended for gambling which is why his Dad was murdered thing", but I agree.

[L-Jam3]

Its kinda funny that Jordan missed 5 of his 10 age 30-39 seasons but he'll never get called a quitter or whatever LeBron would if he did the same vanity NFL project or whatever and took another three off as "retired".

There is the whole "he was actually suspended for gambling which is why his Dad was murdered thing", but I agree.

Agree with Giff's first but not the second.

[mister d]

Yeah, I was actually trying to be generous to Jordan there.

[Steve of phpBB]

Its kinda funny that Jordan missed 5 of his 10 age 30-39 seasons but he'll never get called a quitter or whatever LeBron would if he did the same vanity NFL project or whatever and took another three off as "retired".

That's a good question. If Lebron had won three straight championships and his dad had just been murdered, would he have been called a quitter?

[mister d]

DOUBLE NON-COMP!

[Joe K]

Did anyone actually believe that Jordan was secretly suspended for gambling before NBA/gambling uber-expert Bill Simmons started spreading that theory? Because I believe a lot of sports conspiracy theories and think that one is totally ridiculous.

[Ryan]

Yes

[L-Jam3]

I thought that theory back in the 90s. And out of all the conspiracy stories there are in the world, sports and otherwise, that's the only one I can believe as credible.

My view on conspiracies falls on Occam's Razor in terms of keeping it a conspiracy. Think of conspiracies that came out, with Watergate as the the biggest one. For a conspiracy to work, the players all have to keep quiet. Not a single one can open their mouths. And the truth about secrets is it gets harder to keep the more people who know. Taking the JFK assassination for example, think of how many moving parts would have to be if [insert group that wanted JFK out] really went forward with the plan. It would literally have taken dozens of people who even if they didn't know the whole plan, everyone knew of major plans. The fact that out of those dozens of co-conspirators not a single one opened up out of remorse or being on their deathbed (in my eyes) negates the possibility that it was a conspiracy.

People flip all the time, either through guilt (Sammy "the Bull" Gravano), or sense of duty (Mark Felt) , or taking revenge (Mangini with SpyGate), or just to lighten sentences (Michael Cohen, the Bull). It's very hard to keep a secret, and the more involved, it exponentially gets harder.

Which is why I can believe the Jordan Gambling Suspension. It would've been possible to have this agreement in place with only four people: David Stern (who was handing down the 18-month suspension), Jordan (the recipient of the suspension), and Jerry Reinsdorff and Jerry Krause (the owner and GM of the Bulls, who could plan for the 18 months away). I could probably add Jackson to that group, as he would be in the loop of how to proceed with the 94 and 95 seasons knowing MJ was coming back in March 95. I totally can see those four (or five) individuals keeping this secret quiet all these years, unlike practically any other conspiracy theory out there.

[L-Jam3]

And for the record, I don't think his dad's murder was connected to his gambling. I am 50/50 that his time away was a suspension vs he needed a mental break after his dad's murder.

[Joe K]

If it were a suspension though, you’d have to believe that Stern was concerned enough about Jordan’s gambling to remove the player who was easily the league’s biggest star and economic asset. Since Magic and Bird had recently retired, Jordan was by far the biggest draw in the sport. And by calling it a “retirement,” Stern would lose that valuable asset without gaining the credibility for the league’s integrity that would come with punishing Jordan for gambling. (I.e., “no one is above the law in this league.”) The MJ gambling stuff was already well-known by the summer of 1993 so it’s not like it was a preemptive coverup.

You’d also have to believe that Jordan chose to spend his suspension riding buses and playing AA baseball in the Deep South instead of just staying in basketball shape or making millions playing pro hoops in Europe.

[brian]

Also worth noting the only way he would even get suspended in the first place would have been for betting on NBA games or associating with figures connected with sports betting/illegal gambling. Not saying that's impossible, but it doesn't seem especially likely. And if that were the case it's also pretty likely the league wouldn't have signed off on him becoming an owner years later.

[Joe K]

Also worth noting the only way he would even get suspended in the first place would have been for betting on NBA games or associating with figures connected with sports betting/illegal gambling. Not saying that's impossible, but it doesn't seem especially likely. And if that were the case it's also pretty likely the league wouldn't have signed off on him becoming an owner years later.

He was betting and losing lots of money on golf matches but he’d probably have to get caught throwing NBA games to get suspended for over a year. And I didn’t even think about the ownership part but that’s a great point.

[HaulCitgo]

Really hoping kemba walker pans out for the Cs. Capela would be the cherry but not sure how they would get that done and they had better buy some ice cream first. I do like Brogdon but not sure where he fits in with a gazillion other wings. Tatum, Brown and Hayward is a luxury. Same as kemba would be. Wouldn't swap smart for anyone as glue with that group so now it's just a couple 4/5s. Stretchiness is nice but an old school guy that could swat and rebound would be good enough. Not sure Time Lord is gonna get it done in the post but they would have 2-3 years before they peak with that group so a year light in the post and lots of small ball is ok.

[EdRomero]

Stories about the Celtics' dysfunctional season have begun! https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/270 ... ple-boston

Also, Terry Rozier seems to be destined to become a player putting up good stats for a bad team.

[Joe K]

Stories about the Celtics' dysfunctional season have begun! https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/270 ... ple-boston

Also, Terry Rozier seems to be destined to become a player putting up good stats for a bad team.

Rozier is not a good NBA player and has no business thinking he should be in a lead role in Boston or anywhere else. He’s never even shot 40% from the field for a season and his overall shooting efficiency stats are about as bad as it gets in today’s NBA.

[HaulCitgo]

As far as dysfunction goes, that article wasnt bad at all. Rozier, who knows? The hardest part of making it in the NBA is getting a legit shot. I bet there are about 50 guys that could go get you 20 a night but there are only a handful teams willing to give an unproven guy the minutes and freedom to find out, and probably rightfully so. Id say no to Rozier mostly cause I think hes a straight gunner that doesnt do much else but whos to say he isnt Lou Williams or Gerald Green. In his limited shot as a playoff focal point, he showed he could. Whether that extends to an 82 game season, when the lights arent so bright? Probably not.

[Joe K]

It's about 48 hours until the free agency dominos start falling, and here are my predictions for the top 12 guys on the market, from highest confidence to lowest. It feels like a game of musical chairs, and I'm increasingly convinced the Knicks are going to be the big loser. They'll probably panic and overpay for DeMarcus Cousins.

Klay -- stays in Golden State

Walker -- Boston

Vucevic -- Orlando

Brogdon and Middleton -- stay with the Bucks

Harris -- Philly

Durant and Irving -- both go to the Nets (sorry Knicks fans)

Kawhi -- stays in Toronto on a short-term deal (1-2 years), but he'll be a Clipper or Laker by age 30

Butler -- Philly, unless Houston makes an irresistible trade offer*

D'Angelo Russell -- Lakers

Horford -- Clippers


*If Houston offers Gordon and Tucker, the Sixers need to seriously consider it. Butler is better than those guys, but his contract will be a bit of an albatross in a couple of years. Another rumor is that the Rockets are offering up Gordon and Capela, with Capela headed to Boston in a 3-team deal with Gordon and some Boston players/picks going to Philly.

[Joe K]

Also, this is some good Twittering;

[A_B]

I just don’t know how you fill a roster out with three max.

I’m afraid it involves Carmelo.

[Joe K]

I just don’t know how you fill a roster out with three max.

I’m afraid it involves Carmelo.

I really hope it involves both Carmelo and JR Smith.

[Joe K]

Looks like Big Al likes jambalaya.



Pelicans could be a very feisty team right away.

[Joe K]

Lakers fans are the worst, but I’ll make an exception for Josiah Johnson. This is incredible:

[Johnnie]

DaKidGowie is an A+ follow on all media formats. His impressions, music influence, and basketball takes are always top notch.

Looks like Big Al likes jambalaya.



Pelicans could be a very feisty team right away.

Interesting, Steiny-Mo was on Simmons's podcast and he said this wasn't the case after all...

[EdRomero]

*If Houston offers Gordon and Tucker, the Sixers need to seriously consider it. Butler is better than those guys, but his contract will be a bit of an albatross in a couple of years. Another rumor is that the Rockets are offering up Gordon and Capela, with Capela headed to Boston in a 3-team deal with Gordon and some Boston players/picks going to Philly.

On the Simmons podcast, he and Rusillo made pretty convincing arguments -- basically why do Houston the favor to allow them to sign away your best player, and that Gordon, Tucker, and Capela may be overvalued since every opponent pretty much ignores them as they chase Harden and Paul.

As far as Butler's contract being an albatross in a couple of years, is that in context with them needing to re-sign Simmons and Embiid? If that's the case, I'd rather build around Embiid and Butler, and trade/let go of Simmons when the time goes. Philly can make the finals with Butler next year; I don't think they can make it without him.

[Joe K]

*If Houston offers Gordon and Tucker, the Sixers need to seriously consider it. Butler is better than those guys, but his contract will be a bit of an albatross in a couple of years. Another rumor is that the Rockets are offering up Gordon and Capela, with Capela headed to Boston in a 3-team deal with Gordon and some Boston players/picks going to Philly.

On the Simmons podcast, he and Rusillo made pretty convincing arguments -- basically why do Houston the favor to allow them to sign away your best player, and that Gordon, Tucker, and Capela may be overvalued since every opponent pretty much ignores them as they chase Harden and Paul.

As far as Butler's contract being an albatross in a couple of years, is that in context with them needing to re-sign Simmons and Embiid? If that's the case, I'd rather build around Embiid and Butler, and trade/let go of Simmons when the time goes. Philly can make the finals with Butler next year; I don't think they can make it without him.

I think Butler's contract will be bad in a couple of years because he'll be 30 by the time next season starts and spent much of his 20s playing heavy minutes for Tom Thibodeau. During the five years that Butler started on Thibodeau teams, he averaged almost 38 minutes per game, which is more than anyone in the entire league averaged last season. So he won't be a "young 30." But you're right about how Butler really helped them in the playoffs last year. Butler is not their best player, that's Embiid, but they would've gotten smoked by the Raptors without him. I still think they would have won Game 7 had Butler not rolled his ankle midway through the 4th quarter.

Maybe I'm overrating Gordon and Tucker but they would give Philly better outside shooting (Butler doesn't take many 3s) and, in Tucker's case, a guy who could play some center with Embiid out. The lack of a more agile backup center killed them against Toronto as Embiid had pretty extreme on/off splits for that series.

[EdRomero]

Thanks. I just looked at Butler's age and forgot about the Thibodeau years.

[Johnnie]

[Giff]

Bird rights for Gordon on an expiring $14 million salary is in now way shape or form overpaid.

[Johnnie]

[EdRomero]