NFL Week 3 - The Dawn of the Daniel Jones Era

[Gunpowder]

I have to kind of put the brakes on anointing Brissett on a basis of a couple great games against subpar defenses. It’s obviously good news for Indy but c’mon.

There was also the entire 2016 season where he kept them competitive despite easily having the NFL's worst roster. This isn't a few games in the making.

To which I would have to reply Jared Goff was considered a bust after his first season and Mitch Trubisky was going to be a beast after the first few weeks of last year. I'm not saying Brissett is gonna be either a bust or a beast, but there's a tendency to overreact from week to week to QB play in this league with the younger, unproven guys (except for the ones like Mahomes where it's pretty obvious they've got "it". Lamar Jackson is a maybe a few weeks from getting that measure of respect as well).

Goff was a rookie and Trubisky was a few games. Brissett had an entire season and people saw this coming. Maybe he'll fall off but this isn't just based on a few games for a lot of people.

[Brontoburglar]

It makes sense IF you're planning on going for two if you score to make it 30-29. In that case you want to go for the 2 pointer as early as possible so you know what you need to do the rest of the way.

Why would you want to potentially make the game 30-29 that late? 30-28 is good enough for that. Or, if you kick to make it 30-20 and then get the FG first, you're looking at a TD and 2 for the win.

[Gunpowder]

It makes sense IF you're planning on going for two if you score to make it 30-29. In that case you want to go for the 2 pointer as early as possible so you know what you need to do the rest of the way.

Why would you want to potentially make the game 30-29 that late? 30-28 is good enough for that. Or, if you kick to make it 30-20 and then get the FG first, you're looking at a TD and 2 for the win.

Because as I said you want to get the 2 pointer out of the way as early as possible so you can adjust accordingly going forward. If you do that, and you miss the 2 pt conversion, you lose. If you miss it early you don't kick that field goal now because you know you need TDs to win, or you get a chance to go for two again and tie. So, I believe you can argue with rudimentary percentages:

Scenario 1:

Score TD and kick XP (assume 100% odds)
Kick FG/Score TD + XP
Do the one you didn't do above, tie game and go to OT
50% win odds assuming the above progression

Scenario 2:
Score TD and attempt 2 pt (50% odds)
Kick FG
Score TD and either win with XP or attempt 2 pt for tie

62.5% win/37.5% loss


Scenario 3:
Score TD and kick XP
Kick FG
Score TD and attempt 2 pt (50% odds)

50% win/50% loss


Assuming the above plays out - and for you to win, it essentially has to no matter what path you choose - I really think you can make an argument that your best chance at winning is to go for 2 at 30-19, particularly if you are planning on going for 2 over sending it to OT.

What would obviously change this would be to adjust your OT odds and 2 pt odds (and XP odds but with Justin Tucker they are damn near 100%).