Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:15 am
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:14 pm
It makes sense IF you're planning on going for two if you score to make it 30-29. In that case you want to go for the 2 pointer as early as possible so you know what you need to do the rest of the way.
Why would you want to potentially make the game 30-29 that late? 30-28 is good enough for that. Or, if you kick to make it 30-20 and then get the FG first, you're looking at a TD and 2 for the win.
Because as I said you want to get the 2 pointer out of the way as early as possible so you can adjust accordingly going forward. If you do that, and you miss the 2 pt conversion, you lose. If you miss it early you don't kick that field goal now because you know you need TDs to win, or you get a chance to go for two again and tie. So, I believe you can argue with rudimentary percentages:
Scenario 1:
Score TD and kick XP (assume 100% odds)
Kick FG/Score TD + XP
Do the one you didn't do above, tie game and go to OT
50% win odds assuming the above progression
Scenario 2:
Score TD and attempt 2 pt (50% odds)
Kick FG
Score TD and either win with XP or attempt 2 pt for tie
62.5% win/37.5% loss
Scenario 3:
Score TD and kick XP
Kick FG
Score TD and attempt 2 pt (50% odds)
50% win/50% loss
Assuming the above plays out - and for you to win, it essentially has to no matter what path you choose - I really think you can make an argument that your best chance at winning is to go for 2 at 30-19, particularly if you are planning on going for 2 over sending it to OT.
What would obviously change this would be to adjust your OT odds and 2 pt odds (and XP odds but with Justin Tucker they are damn near 100%).