The 54th Super Bowl

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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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I’m with Shirley.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Giff wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:38 pm
Shirley wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:00 pm
Giff wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:37 pm
Jerloma wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:11 pm It's definitely zero when it hits zero. When it flips to 1, that means there's one second left. A second later it flips to zero. Nothing complicated about it at all.

That spinny think that the Chiefs did pre-snap on the first 4th down conversion was really cool. Fucking Friday Night Lights shit.
When it flips to 1 in college basketball clocks, there are 1.9 seconds left.
I don't think that's right. That would imply that it either goes to 0 with nearly 1 second left (it doesn't) or that it stays at 1 for two seconds (it doesn't).
When there's 1.0 seconds left and then the next is 0.9. Now imagine that clock doesn't show the .9. Should it be a shot-clock violation?

Maybe NFL game clocks are set-up where when they hit start it starts at 25.9, but my guess when they hit start, it's 25->24.9.
Then a 40-second clock would be a 41-second clock? Or a 25-second clock would be a 26-second clock?
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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If a clock in basketball stops with 50.0 on it, what does the clock show a tenth of a second after someone’s starts the same clock? Is it not 49.9?
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Giff wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:58 pm If a clock in basketball stops with 50.0 on it, what does the clock show a tenth of a second after someone’s starts the same clock? Is it not 49.9?
Didn’t you just disprove your point?
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Giff wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:38 pm
Shirley wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:00 pm
Giff wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:37 pm
Jerloma wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:11 pm It's definitely zero when it hits zero. When it flips to 1, that means there's one second left. A second later it flips to zero. Nothing complicated about it at all.

That spinny think that the Chiefs did pre-snap on the first 4th down conversion was really cool. Fucking Friday Night Lights shit.
When it flips to 1 in college basketball clocks, there are 1.9 seconds left.
I don't think that's right. That would imply that it either goes to 0 with nearly 1 second left (it doesn't) or that it stays at 1 for two seconds (it doesn't).
When there's 1.0 seconds left and then the next is 0.9. Now imagine that clock doesn't show the .9. Should it be a shot-clock violation?

Maybe NFL game clocks are set-up where when they hit start it starts at 25.9, but my guess when they hit start, it's 25->24.9.
Between 2.0 and 1.1, it shows 2. Between 1.0 and 0.1, it shows 1. That's why when there's an inbounds with a 1 showing on the shot clock they'll say that you really don't know how much time is left. When it hits 0, the shot clock has expired.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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nm
Last edited by Gunpowder on Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:32 am
Gunpowder wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am But yeah all the Andy Reid stuff was largely because McNabb and particularly Alex Smith would not take the shots that he gave them. McNabb was definitely a good QB despite all the hem hawing from Rush Limbaugh types but he was turnover averse and Alex Smith thought that waiting for a deep route to develop caused cancer. That just makes your time management look worse than it is since they can put together long methodical drives that take forever to move the ball.

My favorite was the like 12 minute drive against the Patriots in 2015 or whatever year it was that they lost to them in the playoffs. I probably put a lot of that on Reid when in reality it's almost all Alex Smith.
The moment that the limitations of the Chiefs' offense pre-Mahomes were evident was the season opener in 2017 when the Chiefs beat the Patriots. Smith finally went downfield often (with success!) and it wasn't like those shots were there just for the first time. It was just the first time that he took them on a regular basis.

Smith got too much shit too. He was a perfectly fine quarterback in a hot take era where you're either bad or great and there's no in-between. He fit squarely in that in-between and won't get the credit he deserves for where the Chiefs are at this point. But yes, he did have some limitations; and those are especially evident now with his replacement becoming the best QB in the league.
Smith got too much credit for being good some of the time, IMO. It's a shame because he was hella talented and when he did go downfield he threw dimes but he'd rather prance around at the first hint of a pass rush and turn a 20 yard gain into a 2 yard run.

They should have massacred the Steelers in 2016 and there was one reason they did not.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Gunpowder wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am
Brontoburglar wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:32 am
Gunpowder wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am But yeah all the Andy Reid stuff was largely because McNabb and particularly Alex Smith would not take the shots that he gave them. McNabb was definitely a good QB despite all the hem hawing from Rush Limbaugh types but he was turnover averse and Alex Smith thought that waiting for a deep route to develop caused cancer. That just makes your time management look worse than it is since they can put together long methodical drives that take forever to move the ball.

My favorite was the like 12 minute drive against the Patriots in 2015 or whatever year it was that they lost to them in the playoffs. I probably put a lot of that on Reid when in reality it's almost all Alex Smith.
The moment that the limitations of the Chiefs' offense pre-Mahomes were evident was the season opener in 2017 when the Chiefs beat the Patriots. Smith finally went downfield often (with success!) and it wasn't like those shots were there just for the first time. It was just the first time that he took them on a regular basis.

Smith got too much shit too. He was a perfectly fine quarterback in a hot take era where you're either bad or great and there's no in-between. He fit squarely in that in-between and won't get the credit he deserves for where the Chiefs are at this point. But yes, he did have some limitations; and those are especially evident now with his replacement becoming the best QB in the league.
Smith got too much credit for being good some of the time, IMO. It's a shame because he was hella talented and when he did go downfield he threw dimes but he'd rather prance around at the first hint of a pass rush and turn a 20 yard gain into a 2 yard run.

They should have massacred the Steelers in 2016 and there was one reason they did not.
I would add that the phenomenon about the Chiefs offense suddenly opening up in 2018 is exactly what happened in San Francisco. Kaepernick was certainly not on Mahomes' level (few are), but he was at least willing to push the ball downfield to WRs. Kaep took over as a starter in the 10th game of the 2012 season and Crabtree's targets and yards/reception immediately spiked. Counting playoffs, Crabtree had 94 targets in the 9 games started by Kaep and 61 targets in the 9 games started by Smith. He also had big spikes in yards and TDs after the QB change.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Gunpowder wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am
Smith got too much credit for being good some of the time, IMO. It's a shame because he was hella talented and when he did go downfield he threw dimes but he'd rather prance around at the first hint of a pass rush and turn a 20 yard gain into a 2 yard run.

They should have massacred the Steelers in 2016 and there was one reason they did not.
I think the too much credit thing goes into the binary thought process as well. He had times where his stat line *looked* great. And he was relatively efficient while not being explosive.

At the very least, Smith gets credit for being a credible starting QB for a franchise that was in dire need of one since the retirement of Trent Green. And while he didn't single-handedly win the Chiefs many games, he was also not terrible enough for them to lose games either (just five multi-pick games in a Chiefs uniform). And he would have been a capable QB for, what, half the league? He was basically a league-average to slightly above at times QB.

Shit, this is also a pretty good timeline too

Smith to KC for No. 34 in 2013 (Justin Hunter) and No. 56 in 2014 (Cody Latimer)
Smith starts for five seasons in KC
Smith to WAS for No. 78 in 2018 (Malik Jefferson by the Bengals in a trade that netted the Chiefs Breeland Speaks and Dorian O'Daniel) and Kendall Fuller
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Alex Smith = Jimmy Garopollo.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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imagine thinking how smart this take is when, you know, people under 18 aren't prohibited from watching the Super Bowl (among other voting disqualifications)

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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:09 am imagine thinking how smart this take is when, you know, people under 18 aren't prohibited from watching the Super Bowl (among other voting disqualifications
Last time I checked, there's no single party promoting that people provide ID to watch television.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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L-Jam3 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:17 am
Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:09 am imagine thinking how smart this take is when, you know, people under 18 aren't prohibited from watching the Super Bowl (among other voting disqualifications
Last time I checked, there's no single party promoting that people provide ID to watch television.
Or preventing convicted felons from voting, or resident aliens...
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:02 am
Gunpowder wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am
Smith got too much credit for being good some of the time, IMO. It's a shame because he was hella talented and when he did go downfield he threw dimes but he'd rather prance around at the first hint of a pass rush and turn a 20 yard gain into a 2 yard run.

They should have massacred the Steelers in 2016 and there was one reason they did not.
I think the too much credit thing goes into the binary thought process as well. He had times where his stat line *looked* great. And he was relatively efficient while not being explosive.

At the very least, Smith gets credit for being a credible starting QB for a franchise that was in dire need of one since the retirement of Trent Green. And while he didn't single-handedly win the Chiefs many games, he was also not terrible enough for them to lose games either (just five multi-pick games in a Chiefs uniform). And he would have been a capable QB for, what, half the league? He was basically a league-average to slightly above at times QB.

Shit, this is also a pretty good timeline too

Smith to KC for No. 34 in 2013 (Justin Hunter) and No. 56 in 2014 (Cody Latimer)
Smith starts for five seasons in KC
Smith to WAS for No. 78 in 2018 (Malik Jefferson by the Bengals in a trade that netted the Chiefs Breeland Speaks and Dorian O'Daniel) and Kendall Fuller

Stats are just that, stats. Kirk Cousins has great stats, also misses a tremendous amount of open WRs, and generally holds back a top roster from being a true contender. If you have good stats in a situation where most good QBs would have had great stats, are you good? Average? Bad? I don't know. I think Alex Smith was a bad QB inside a great QB's body and maybe he would have been a benefit to shitty teams but on a team with legit aspirations, he's the main anchor.

It happened to the Niners in 2012 or whenever when he couldn't throw to anyone but Vernon Davis as the rest of the team around him ripped the Giants limb from limb and still somehow lost, it happened against Tennessee when Kelce got hurt and they took away drags to Tyreek Hill, it happened against the Steelers, it just always happened.

When you need a play from your QB, you just get way too much of this:

Image

No need to panic and take off. This next one is against a 3 man rush!!

Image

This all fell on Andy Reid for years. Give him a guy who doesn't panic and who let's plays develop as long as he has time, and suddenly he's winning the SB. I really believe that yes Mahomes arm talent makes him transcendent but if he had Alex Smith's arm, he'd still be an MVP candidate in Reid's system.

I also hate on Alex Smith because I'm tired of hearing how great his numbers are and how he's underrated while also hearing that guys like this run too much and are just RBs playing the wrong position:

Image
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Joe K wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:07 am I would add that the phenomenon about the Chiefs offense suddenly opening up in 2018 is exactly what happened in San Francisco. Kaepernick was certainly not on Mahomes' level (few are), but he was at least willing to push the ball downfield to WRs. Kaep took over as a starter in the 10th game of the 2012 season and Crabtree's targets and yards/reception immediately spiked. Counting playoffs, Crabtree had 94 targets in the 9 games started by Kaep and 61 targets in the 9 games started by Smith. He also had big spikes in yards and TDs after the QB change.
If Kaepernick were in the same situation (hypothetically) but a year earlier (ie he's not like a rookie or whatever that someone might use to argue against this point), they would have blown the doors off of the Giants.

Probably why Vernon Davis got in a fight with Joe Staley about Kaepernick. He missed being the exclusive target recipient.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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I typed *looked* for a reason!
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:18 pm I typed *looked* for a reason!
Yeah but then you went on to support it.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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saying a guy was a league average to slightly above average QB is not exactly supporting the "great" part of that. unless I'm misunderstanding what average means. or maybe it's simply the reflection of what I'm referencing -- that Alex Smith was stuck firmly in the middle of nowhere in a league where you're either good or bad.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Maybe the part I'm seizing on is that he was not bad enough to cause the Chiefs to lose games because he didn't throw picks. He absolutely was bad enough to cause the Chiefs to lose games and it happened more than people realize.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Oh fuck yeah. Tweet it.

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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Gunpowder wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:39 pm Maybe the part I'm seizing on is that he was not bad enough to cause the Chiefs to lose games because he didn't throw picks. He absolutely was bad enough to cause the Chiefs to lose games and it happened more than people realize.
sure, but most every QB not named Patrick Mahomes is bad enough to lose games for his team. my point was that while he wasn't great he also wasn't a QB who cost his team by being worse than average on a regular basis. Kirk Cousins, as mentioned above, is a great comp. He's a perfectly fine QB. The Vikings would be a lot better if he was awesome. But they're also good because he's not a below-average/bad QB either.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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I argue that Kirk Cousins holds them back because people think about him like you are above but in reality they are a Super Bowl team being held back by a guy they don't consider a problem. Once these guys get big contracts they become huge problems.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Gunpowder wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:26 pm I argue that Kirk Cousins holds them back because people think about him like you are above but in reality they are a Super Bowl team being held back by a guy they don't consider a problem. Once these guys get big contracts they become huge problems.
the bolded part should be way more on the team than the player. it ain't the QB's fault on the "problem" because the team decided to pay the average guy a wayyyyyy above average salary
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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I mean I guess I have to just accept at this point that QBs who lose you games but don't do it in painfully obvious ways will be defended as perfectly fine QBs.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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there has to be a middle tier to be able define what average actually means
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:55 pm there has to be a middle tier to be able define what average actually means
That's Andy Dalton.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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future Bears starting QB Andy Dalton!
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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When Andy Dalton had a really good offense around him, he played like a borderline MVP. He won't elevate anyone but in a perfect scenario I think you might have a better shot with him than with Alex Smith.

Chicago probably ain't that scenario, unfortunately.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

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Brontoburglar wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:55 pm there has to be a middle tier to be able define what average actually means
There are so many factors that complicate this....ie, are Kirk Cousins, an average-ish QB, and Alex Smith, a highly-skilled QB who plays like he was just signed as an emergency starter last week, both average? Is Josh Allen average with the scatterbrained-ness of Alex Smith, the arm of a Greek god, and the ability to occasionally play well enough to carry your team by itself while also losing close games because he can't hit a swing pass? I don't really know. I mean I guess it has to all be reduced down to one ranking but it's not clean.
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Re: The 54th Super Bowl

Post by Brontoburglar »

Gunpowder wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:55 pm
Brontoburglar wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:55 pm there has to be a middle tier to be able define what average actually means
There are so many factors that complicate this....ie, are Kirk Cousins, an average-ish QB, and Alex Smith, a highly-skilled QB who plays like he was just signed as an emergency starter last week, both average? Is Josh Allen average with the scatterbrained-ness of Alex Smith, the arm of a Greek god, and the ability to occasionally play well enough to carry your team by itself while also losing close games because he can't hit a swing pass? I don't really know. I mean I guess it has to all be reduced down to one ranking but it's not clean.
Not at all. And that's what I was trying to get at with by saying that it's too simplistic to say a QB is good or bad because ... where do those guys fit? This average middle tier I'm thinking of is vast and ambiguous and comprised of a lot of the guys who we don't think of at the top of the spectrum like Mahomes, Rodgers and Wilson and the guys we don't think of at the bottom like Bortles, Trubisky (at the moment) and the shell of Flacco.
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