Before and After

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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degenerasian
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Before and After

Post by degenerasian »

From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
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Re: Before and After

Post by The Sybian »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 am From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
Short term, yes to all. I think it's going to take us a while to resume shaking hands and feeling safe going to a packed stadium. As for travel, I think a lot of people are going to be hit hard by the economic downturn in addition to a fear of getting on a plane or cruise ship for the first few weeks or months after the restrictions are lifted. Once the curve starts flattening, there are still going to be a lot of people contracting the virus, especially since some people seem to get it twice (could be they are released from hospital and initial infection worsens, rather than second infection).

As for increased remote working, I think that will depend on how productive people are this month. My first thought was that hesitant employers would see that work from home is productive and feasible for many office jobs, but then I think people are working from home for the first time, and it seems it takes people a bit to get into the swing. Then you have kids trying remote learning for the first time and parents dealing with those issues and keeping kids busy in the afternoon, plus the increased anxiety and news-watching with the virus, so I think employers will get a very bad view of worker productivity. But, who the fuck knows...
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Re: Before and After

Post by A_B »

I’m using jazz hands instead of handshakes/elbow bumps.
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Re: Before and After

Post by GoodKarma »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 am From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
I think this will increase the number of people working from home. Companies will realize that it will be cheaper in the long run. Therefore the negative effect will be on the commercial real estate market. I don't think it will reduce mass gatherings...if anything there will be a temporary bump after the closures are lifted. Restaurants that survive are going to do gangbusters business.
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Re: Before and After

Post by BSF21 »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 am From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
I think remote working is the biggest one. The rest I don't see a ton of change being effected unless this becomes a catastrophic death event. If 6-10 million people die from touching each other it might ingrain some non-contact stuff in our brains, but that's cultural. I wonder what Japan's rates will look like given the lack of the formal handshake in their culture. Obviously their culture in general is likely going to stymie those rates anyway.
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Re: Before and After

Post by The Sybian »

I think online university degrees will be the big change. My wife was obsessed with MOOCs like 10 years ago. I did a couple courses, too. You could pay a relatively small fee to get college credits or do them for free. I really thought that would have taken off by now. While I think living on campus and meeting people was half of the value of college, costs are astronomical and you can get almost the same value of classroom learning online. With the market tanking, I have to imagine a lot of people who thought they had adequate college savings funds are suddenly not in a position to afford college. This could also be a move towards subsidized tuition. Too bad Bernie is toast.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Steve of phpBB »

BSF21 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:48 am
degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 am From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
I think remote working is the biggest one. The rest I don't see a ton of change being effected unless this becomes a catastrophic death event. If 6-10 million people die from touching each other it might ingrain some non-contact stuff in our brains, but that's cultural. I wonder what Japan's rates will look like given the lack of the formal handshake in their culture. Obviously their culture in general is likely going to stymie those rates anyway.
I think the opposite on remote working. I think after weeks on end of it, most people will realize they want the social contact that going to the office provides.

(Or maybe I'm just projecting.)
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Re: Before and After

Post by mister d »

A_B wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:43 am I’m using jazz hands instead of handshakes/elbow bumps.
The handshake will become a virtue signal for "anti-snowflake" performative-masculine shitheads.
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Re: Before and After

Post by degenerasian »

I think society was racing out of control so something like this, as bad at it is, might slow people down.

An average family, two working parents and two kids. Both parents have to drop kids off school or daycare, then rush into work. Then rush to pick the kids up. Then take them to extra activities (sports, music etc..). Weekends are jammed with kid's activities or social outings. Then taking one of two trips per year. And raking up personal debt.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Nonlinear FC »

Steve of phpBB wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:23 am
BSF21 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:48 am
degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 am From EdRomero suggestion.

Obviously focus is on getting through this, but it is interesting to think about how this is a true before/after moment. Probably THE before/after moment of our lives. 

So what changes in the after? 
- Does the way people travel alter? (Less cruising, less global travel all around?) 
- Do our social norms and behaviors change (no hand shaking, or worse yet cheek kissing the some cultures do) 
- Do we see a huge increase in remote working, outside the shift that is already happening? 
- Do we see a reduction in mass gatherings?

What else potentially changes in the after?
I think remote working is the biggest one. The rest I don't see a ton of change being effected unless this becomes a catastrophic death event. If 6-10 million people die from touching each other it might ingrain some non-contact stuff in our brains, but that's cultural. I wonder what Japan's rates will look like given the lack of the formal handshake in their culture. Obviously their culture in general is likely going to stymie those rates anyway.
I think the opposite on remote working. I think after weeks on end of it, most people will realize they want the social contact that going to the office provides.

(Or maybe I'm just projecting.)
I dunno. I think antiquated places that were holding out, and are now forced to do figure it out are going to rethink their operations. It's a cultural (corporate) thing. I know that's going on where I work... Dragging their feet for the last 5 years and had JUST gotten around to putting a half-ass policy in place, now this... Mandatory telework will sort a lot of shit out, toot sweet.
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Re: Before and After

Post by GoodKarma »

I'm not sure what to call it but I'm wondering if or how much this experience will increase the number of "nationalists"...people that believe in closed borders/closed societies. Watching Trump right now and he's still playing the Chinese-virus game...
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Re: Before and After

Post by degenerasian »

GoodKarma wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:39 am I'm not sure what to call it but I'm wondering if or how much this experience will increase the number of "nationalists"...people that believe in closed borders/closed societies. Watching Trump right now and he's still playing the Chinese-virus game...
Sure. There has already been a multicultural/globalism side and the anti side. This just increases that rhetoric.
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Re: Before and After

Post by EdRomero »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:27 am I think society was racing out of control so something like this, as bad at it is, might slow people down.

An average family, two working parents and two kids. Both parents have to drop kids off school or daycare, then rush into work. Then rush to pick the kids up. Then take them to extra activities (sports, music etc..). Weekends are jammed with kid's activities or social outings. Then taking one of two trips per year. And raking up personal debt.
Reminds me of this article: https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/bl ... AXhThe5ozg

Just have to change the distribution of wealth a bit. Easy
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Re: Before and After

Post by EdRomero »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:49 am
GoodKarma wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:39 am I'm not sure what to call it but I'm wondering if or how much this experience will increase the number of "nationalists"...people that believe in closed borders/closed societies. Watching Trump right now and he's still playing the Chinese-virus game...
Sure. There has already been a multicultural/globalism side and the anti side. This just increases that rhetoric.
This along with our countries and systems failing so many people is what can lead to revolutions and world wars.
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Re: Before and After

Post by mister d »

Nonlinear FC wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:35 amI dunno. I think antiquated places that were holding out, and are now forced to do figure it out are going to rethink their operations. It's a cultural (corporate) thing. I know that's going on where I work... Dragging their feet for the last 5 years and had JUST gotten around to putting a half-ass policy in place, now this... Mandatory telework will sort a lot of shit out, toot sweet.
Unless we see a spike in serious hacking of companies who had to rush infrastructure and security in order to allow WFH?
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Re: Before and After

Post by P.D.X. »

mister d wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:11 am
Nonlinear FC wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:35 amI dunno. I think antiquated places that were holding out, and are now forced to do figure it out are going to rethink their operations. It's a cultural (corporate) thing. I know that's going on where I work... Dragging their feet for the last 5 years and had JUST gotten around to putting a half-ass policy in place, now this... Mandatory telework will sort a lot of shit out, toot sweet.
Unless we see a spike in serious hacking of companies who had to rush infrastructure and security in order to allow WFH?
There's existing tools and products (and consultants) to mitigate this. It's not new territory.
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Re: Before and After

Post by P.D.X. »

What will happen to preening workplace heroes? Will logging on first and logging out last be their new competitive metric?
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Re: Before and After

Post by DaveInSeattle »

My first thought about what is not coming back, ever is Work Travel. Companies are going to look at all the tele-conferencing options, and think 'Wait...why are we paying Chad to fly across the country, get a rental car, stay in a hotel, and order steak and martinis on our dime when we can just set up a tele-conferencing room?'.

The other thing I agree on is more WFH policies. The same companies are going to look around and think 'Why are we paying for all this expensive real estate, when people can do the same thing at home'.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Pruitt »

The working from home, less business travel and more online education definitely a big deal.

What about sports? People will see that they can get along nicely without certain sports. Could there be a dip in interest?
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Re: Before and After

Post by phxgators »

mister d wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:11 am
Nonlinear FC wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:35 amI dunno. I think antiquated places that were holding out, and are now forced to do figure it out are going to rethink their operations. It's a cultural (corporate) thing. I know that's going on where I work... Dragging their feet for the last 5 years and had JUST gotten around to putting a half-ass policy in place, now this... Mandatory telework will sort a lot of shit out, toot sweet.
Unless we see a spike in serious hacking of companies who had to rush infrastructure and security in order to allow WFH?
This perfectly describes our company and their paranoia. Though we did already have tools in place for this, VPN, etc.
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Re: Before and After

Post by govmentchedda »

I think watching sports in person will limp back as people remain afraid of contact, but will definitely get back even better than ever.
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Re: Before and After

Post by mister d »

P.D.X. wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:37 amThere's existing tools and products (and consultants) to mitigate this. It's not new territory.
Not new territory, but I assume there's a massive flood of companies who weren't ready and systems/providers not prepared to handle it?
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Re: Before and After

Post by degenerasian »

Pruitt wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:56 am The working from home, less business travel and more online education definitely a big deal.

What about sports? People will see that they can get along nicely without certain sports. Could there be a dip in interest?
NFL is going to get even more fans if they start on time in September.
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Re: Before and After

Post by mister d »

I think I would watch the NFL at this point.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Rush2112 »

mister d wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:06 pm I think I would watch the NFL at this point.
Get the free game pass and do some catching up
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Re: Before and After

Post by mister d »

I don't even like being on DVR delay, let alone watching a decided game. The fun is its live-ness.
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Re: Before and After

Post by P.D.X. »

It would be nice to have relations again at some point. No idea how that's gonna happen.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Nonlinear FC »

P.D.X. wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:39 am What will happen to preening workplace heroes? Will logging on first and logging out last be their new competitive metric?
Really elaborate WFH set-ups, including the backdrop for video conferencing/meetings.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Giff »

mister d wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:21 pm I don't even like being on DVR delay, let alone watching a decided game. The fun is its live-ness.
Yeah, I bought the DVD release of all 7 games of the Rockets 1994 championship and it's never been opened in the 15 years or so I've had it. I lose all interest in watching a game if I know the result.
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Re: Before and After

Post by testuser2 »

The Sybian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:06 am I think online university degrees will be the big change. My wife was obsessed with MOOCs like 10 years ago. I did a couple courses, too. You could pay a relatively small fee to get college credits or do them for free. I really thought that would have taken off by now. While I think living on campus and meeting people was half of the value of college, costs are astronomical and you can get almost the same value of classroom learning online. With the market tanking, I have to imagine a lot of people who thought they had adequate college savings funds are suddenly not in a position to afford college. This could also be a move towards subsidized tuition. Too bad Bernie is toast.
This is really what I do for a living. I think the hybrid model is going to really take off. There are some classes that have to be in person(Arts, Labs, etc...) Universities have an enormous sunk cost in facilities that they can't just stop using and the purely online options like WGU/Phoenix have other problems. Some students really need the in person class experience. I have had to work with several faculty members this week where they had students take over their online lectures in Zoom. Playing music, spamming chat, yelling profanities, etc...
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Re: Before and After

Post by testuser2 »

testuser2 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:33 pm I have had to work with several faculty members this week where they had students take over their online lectures in Zoom. Playing music, spamming chat, yelling profanities, etc...
This is arrived in my email while I was typing in the swamp:
One class had students dancing in costumes, doing shots, and one kid buffing his trumpet
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Re: Before and After

Post by Rush2112 »

We hired a new Dean of the Libraries about a year ago. He's now only in the Libraries about 30-40% of the time as he's taken on the online ventures for CU. CSU has been killing it for years with their online MBA and I guess we want a piece of that sweet sweet pie.
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Re: Before and After

Post by DaveInSeattle »

Rush2112 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:47 pm We hired a new Dean of the Libraries about a year ago. He's now only in the Libraries about 30-40% of the time as he's taken on the online ventures for CU. CSU has been killing it for years with their online MBA and I guess we want a piece of that sweet sweet pie.
I have a niece who's doing an online MBA through Villanova. She lives in Madison, WI.
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Re: Before and After

Post by Giff »

Rush2112 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:47 pm We hired a new Dean of the Libraries about a year ago. He's now only in the Libraries about 30-40% of the time as he's taken on the online ventures for CU. CSU has been killing it for years with their online MBA and I guess we want a piece of that sweet sweet pie.
My wife is getting her MHA through CSU.
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Re: Before and After

Post by testuser2 »

Grad school is a completely different beast. I don't see a reason why most grad degrees can't be online. CSU has a great online program. The group that runs it knows their stuff. Georgia Tech is one I've considered for a data science master's degree. Cheap and high quality.
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Re: Before and After

Post by sancarlos »

testuser2 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:09 pm Grad school is a completely different beast. I don't see a reason why most grad degrees can't be online. CSU has a great online program. The group that runs it knows their stuff. Georgia Tech is one I've considered for a data science master's degree. Cheap and high quality.
Perhaps the best argument for attending graduate-level classes in person is to make contacts for your future career.
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Re: Before and After

Post by degenerasian »

testuser2 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:09 pm Grad school is a completely different beast. I don't see a reason why most grad degrees can't be online. CSU has a great online program. The group that runs it knows their stuff. Georgia Tech is one I've considered for a data science master's degree. Cheap and high quality.
why would undergrad be different? Volume of student? More exams? Hacking?
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Re: Before and After

Post by testuser2 »

degenerasian wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:14 pm why would undergrad be different? Volume of student? More exams? Hacking?
Maturity, content, and class size. For many, undergrad is just an extension of high school.
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Re: Before and After

Post by EdRomero »

testuser2 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:37 pm This is arrived in my email while I was typing in the swamp:
and one kid buffing his trumpet
Is that what they call it these days?
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Re: Before and After

Post by Johnnie »

As for work, the Air Force is going to go back to what it was doing before. There will still be work travel ("TDYs" or "temporary duty" as we call it and obviously deployments); there will definitely be asses in seats full time all the time during the work day; and we will still have forced gatherings ("mandatory fun" events, commanders calls..etc.) because changing the culture starts at the top and slides down, never the opposite.

Socially, I hope we all wash our hands more. I'm also not going to shake hands unless force of habit kicks in.

And I'm far too cynical to think anything permanently good comes from this. Baggage fees from a bailed out group of airlines will return under bullshit conditions. And high speed internet will be throttled back down in favor of profit margins. Etc, etc..
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