2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:01 pm

Hahahahahahaha

https://verysmartbrothas.theroot.com/if ... 1845252412

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:03 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:45 pm

but if he walks out of this unscathed, he's gonna come back saying it was equivalent to having allergies and how he is the healthiest person on the planet.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:05 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:01 pm Hahahahahahaha

https://verysmartbrothas.theroot.com/if ... 1845252412

that's fantastic

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:09 pm

I've been trying to workshop how to clapback something like "you know, if the Presidential election went by popular vote then Trump wouldn't have COVID right now."

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:10 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:03 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:45 pm
but if he walks out of this unscathed, he's gonna come back saying it was equivalent to having allergies and how he is the healthiest person on the planet.

As a private citizen after he's defeated in November, he'll be free to say whatever he wants.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:14 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:03 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:45 pm
but if he walks out of this unscathed, he's gonna come back saying it was equivalent to having allergies and how he is the healthiest person on the planet.

We need someone in the administration to die from this who isn't a Trump or a Pence. Maybe Barr? Betsy DeVos?

Gym Jordan would be acceptable also but I think the odds are against that.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:17 pm

I really wonder what you guys think could possibly change someone's mind that thinks this is all just a big nothingburger at this point.

It's like constantly worrying what someone that watches Fox News thinks. Who fucking cares? They are lost causes, as we've detailed a million times on this site.

Polling just doesn't support that there's some vast middle out there that thinks COVID is bullshit. Those folks are fox news morons. POLLING tells us most of the rest of the country supports wearing masks and takes this seriously.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:18 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:14 pm
degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:03 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:45 pm
but if he walks out of this unscathed, he's gonna come back saying it was equivalent to having allergies and how he is the healthiest person on the planet.
We need someone in the administration to die from this who isn't a Trump or a Pence. Maybe Barr? Betsy DeVos?

Gym Jordan would be acceptable also but I think the odds are against that.

MILLER

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:27 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:01 pm Hahahahahahaha

https://verysmartbrothas.theroot.com/if ... 1845252412

Not gonna lie, he had me in the first half.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:29 pm

At first I thought the bold was a bad play but then I realized too many people would stop reading and close if they didn't see the change coming. I enjoyed it.

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:40 pm

If this data is anywhere close to correct, Trump has zero chance to win Michigan. Oakland County was 51-43 for Clinton in 2016 and has about 20 percent of the state's population.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:43 pm

Blue Wave.

I called my shot many months ago, and it's all continuing to trend in that direction.

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:46 pm

Trump realized he needed support from the suburban voters to win, but it's not 1968 anymore, so race-based appeals aren't going to work like they did for Wallace or Nixon. What he could/should have done to win suburban voters was take COVID seriously. I really believe if he had, he'd probably win re-election in a walk.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:54 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:43 pm Blue Wave.

I called my shot many months ago, and it's all continuing to trend in that direction.

I have been in such a good mood ALL DAY.

Hearing people talking about this being a plan and in two weeks Trump will be all better and tell people that a) this proves Covid is overhyped and b) he's a superman of sorts.

Not buying it at all. This makes him looks like a sick old man who has no idea what he's talking about. Love it.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:56 pm

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:16 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:46 pm Trump realized he needed support from the suburban voters to win, but it's not 1968 anymore, so race-based appeals aren't going to work like they did for Wallace or Nixon. What he could/should have done to win suburban voters was take COVID seriously. I really believe if he had, he'd probably win re-election in a walk.

Could not agree more. Been saying this for many months. Suburban parents are livid. Kids can't go to school, and many can't visit their own parents. It was one thing to gut out the end of the school year in the Spring. To roll into the Fall and thing are pretty much getting worse in many parts of the country?

Clusterfuck. And you really can't avoid the fact that Trump has never put together a real plan. He punted to the states. And this isn't my opinion, it's polling that tells you that non-Republicans (including independents) put the blame on Trump.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:19 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:43 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:25 pm
Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:21 pm
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:15 pmThis robs him of two weeks of tarmac white supremacist rallies.
This is part of my point.

I'm with you on fundraising, though.
IOW, it's not accurate to say "I don't see how this is anything other than good for Trump."
Sorry, in case I wasn't clear. I think it is good for Trump that he will not be holding white supremacist rallies. Those do not seem to help him with the public.

Fundraising *could* be a problem for Trump, but somehow I think they will find (or steal) enough money to do whatever they need.

STRONG DISAGREE on the bolded. That's how he won last time. He needs those. Badly. They do help him with the public - sadly - there is some quiet percentage who responds to those. And he himself gets the ego strokes he needs from it. He will very very much miss those.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:22 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:40 pm If this data is anywhere close to correct, Trump has zero chance to win Michigan. Oakland County was 51-43 for Clinton in 2016 and has about 20 percent of the state's population.

Good lord. That puts a spring in my step. I know that county from my time in Michigan for years before my grandfather passed away. Those numbers are stunning.

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pm

If Trump doesn't tweet anything today (and he hasn't since late last evening) I'm going to assume the worst and that he's really sick. Certainly if it were "the sniffles" or the other batshit crazy shit he and other prominent GOPers have done to minimize it he would be capable of live-tweeting Fox News like he usually does.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:30 pm

venti-la-tor

clap-clap
clapclapclap

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pmIf Trump doesn't tweet anything today (and he hasn't since late last evening) I'm going to assume the worst and that he's really sick.

#assumethebest

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:19 pmThat's how he won last time. He needs those. Badly. They do help him with the public - sadly - there is some quiet percentage who responds to those.

I'm curious what your basis is to conclude that.

Four years ago, only 47% of voters thought of Trump as a conservative, versus 22% moderate and 19% liberal. I don't think that was from his rallies - and I also don't think his rallies were nearly as overtly white supremacist then.

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:37 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm
brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pmIf Trump doesn't tweet anything today (and he hasn't since late last evening) I'm going to assume the worst and that he's really sick.
#assumethebest

Sure, granted. Honestly, the worst result for the election might be that he dies before it though. Lots of NeverTrump type people will have no issues pulling the lever for Trump knowing that Pence will be president.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:59 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:37 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm
brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pmIf Trump doesn't tweet anything today (and he hasn't since late last evening) I'm going to assume the worst and that he's really sick.
#assumethebest
Sure, granted. Honestly, the worst result for the election might be that he dies before it though. Lots of NeverTrump type people will have no issues pulling the lever for Trump knowing that Pence will be president.

Good lord, I know. Think about how terrible that would be - he'd lie in state for days, (white) people would come from all around to cry at his casket, Dems would be forced to either speak respectfully about him or be ghouls, any state investigations or pending prosecutions against Trump personally would have to stop ...

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:03 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:19 pmThat's how he won last time. He needs those. Badly. They do help him with the public - sadly - there is some quiet percentage who responds to those.
I'm curious what your basis is to conclude that.

Four years ago, only 47% of voters thought of Trump as a conservative, versus 22% moderate and 19% liberal. I don't think that was from his rallies - and I also don't think his rallies were nearly as overtly white supremacist then.

It was non-stop free ad time. That's my basis. CNN/FOX and Msnbc ran those in their entirety for most of that cycle. Something like 2 billion in free advertising from what i saw in one study. He would have repeated that this cycle but for Covid in general - but even so - was doing as many of these as he could. And miss me withe rallies were not as overtly white suprmacist then. Oh fuck yes they were. He started his campaign attacking Mexicans - the people coming to his rallies in 2016 LOVED that shit. Same as now.

He needs those - I think the lack of those due to Covid was already hampering him. He tried that one in Tulsa and killed Herman Cain. And now he can't even do the tarmac ones. It's a problem for him on all levels.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:06 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:03 pmIt was non-stop free ad time. That's my basis. CNN/FOX and Msnbc ran those in their entirety for most of that cycle. Something like 2 billion in free advertising from what i saw in one study. He would have repeated that this cycle but for Covid in general - but even so - was doing as many of these as he could. And miss me withe rallies were not as overtly white suprmacist then. Oh fuck yes they were. He started his campaign attacking Mexicans - the people coming to his rallies in 2016 LOVED that shit. Same as now.

He needs those - I think the lack of those due to Covid was already hampering him. He tried that one in Tulsa and killed Herman Cain. And now he can't even do the tarmac ones. It's a problem for him on all levels.

Yeah but that was during the Republican primaries. He benefited from exposure.

He's not benefiting from exposure now.

psunate77 · Post by **psunate77** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:09 pm

Next 5 days will tell a lot, but don’t sound good.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:11 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:06 pm
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:03 pmIt was non-stop free ad time. That's my basis. CNN/FOX and Msnbc ran those in their entirety for most of that cycle. Something like 2 billion in free advertising from what i saw in one study. He would have repeated that this cycle but for Covid in general - but even so - was doing as many of these as he could. And miss me withe rallies were not as overtly white suprmacist then. Oh fuck yes they were. He started his campaign attacking Mexicans - the people coming to his rallies in 2016 LOVED that shit. Same as now.

He needs those - I think the lack of those due to Covid was already hampering him. He tried that one in Tulsa and killed Herman Cain. And now he can't even do the tarmac ones. It's a problem for him on all levels.
Yeah but that was during the Republican primaries. He benefited from exposure.

He's not benefiting from exposure now.

That continued all the way up to the election. And after his election. Up until March of this year. He's been really lost without these.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:14 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:06 pm
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:03 pmIt was non-stop free ad time. That's my basis. CNN/FOX and Msnbc ran those in their entirety for most of that cycle. Something like 2 billion in free advertising from what i saw in one study. He would have repeated that this cycle but for Covid in general - but even so - was doing as many of these as he could. And miss me withe rallies were not as overtly white suprmacist then. Oh fuck yes they were. He started his campaign attacking Mexicans - the people coming to his rallies in 2016 LOVED that shit. Same as now.

He needs those - I think the lack of those due to Covid was already hampering him. He tried that one in Tulsa and killed Herman Cain. And now he can't even do the tarmac ones. It's a problem for him on all levels.
Yeah but that was during the Republican primaries. He benefited from exposure.

He's not benefiting from exposure now.

Going to say it one more time and then let it go.

His rallies are about getting his base worked up in key swing states. Because he's losing the fundraising battle, these rallies are free ads for whatever market he's in.

This politics and election 101 stuff. I'm not trying to be pedantic, but you are massively overstating the negative effect, which at this point is already baked into everyone's opinion of him, and you are underestimating what it means for him to be off the campaign trail for 2 week, with only 4 weeks to go.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:22 pm

psunate77 · Post by **psunate77** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:30 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:22 pm

I get her point, but no thoughts are with the President??

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:35 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:30 pm I get her point, but no thoughts are with the President??

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:39 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:30 pmI get her point, but no thoughts are with the President??

If someone helped kill one of your parents, would you offer warm thoughts if that person were ill?

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:43 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:14 pmHis rallies are about getting his base worked up in key swing states. Because he's losing the fundraising battle, these rallies are free ads for whatever market he's in.

This politics and election 101 stuff. I'm not trying to be pedantic, but you are massively overstating the negative effect, which at this point is already baked into everyone's opinion of him, and you are underestimating what it means for him to be off the campaign trail for 2 week, with only 4 weeks to go.

You certainly know more about this stuff than I do ... but what is the causal mechanism here? If Trump didn't have Covid and he were to hold a rally in some city, would anyone see it other than people who chose to attend or chose to watch it on TV? Are there that many people who would choose to attend a Trump rally or watch it on TV who would not otherwise vote for Trump?

Is it more about fundraising - people who attend a rally will be more likely to donate during or afterwards, and now that won't be happening? How much money are we talking from that effect?

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:55 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:43 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:14 pmHis rallies are about getting his base worked up in key swing states. Because he's losing the fundraising battle, these rallies are free ads for whatever market he's in.

This politics and election 101 stuff. I'm not trying to be pedantic, but you are massively overstating the negative effect, which at this point is already baked into everyone's opinion of him, and you are underestimating what it means for him to be off the campaign trail for 2 week, with only 4 weeks to go.
You certainly know more about this stuff than I do ... but what is the causal mechanism here? If Trump didn't have Covid and he were to hold a rally in some city, would anyone see it other than people who chose to attend or chose to watch it on TV? Are there that many people who would choose to attend a Trump rally or watch it on TV who would not otherwise vote for Trump?

Is it more about fundraising - people who attend a rally will be more likely to donate during or afterwards, and now that won't be happening? How much money are we talking from that effect?

You are MASSIVELY underestimating the air time those get - it's not just while it happens while on CNN/Fox/MSNBC - it is then fed for free into the Twitter-verse, facebook, the morning news shows, the weekend shows. It is unreal how much free air time he got. He misses that. Dearly. It is one of the reasons his mishandling of Covid was SO bad for for personally - it deprived him of his chief means of dominating the air waves. And has since March. And takes him completely off the board for two of the remaining four weeks of this campaign. When he is already behind and already needing to flat cheat to keep it close enough to steal...

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:56 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:39 pm
psunate77 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:30 pmI get her point, but no thoughts are with the President??
If someone helped kill one of your parents, would you offer warm thoughts if that person were ill?

Plus he spouted this bullshit WEDNESDAY FUCKING NIGHT.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:06 pm

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:07 pm

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:07 pm

Ahem:

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:19 pm

The low information people who follow Trump see him as a pillar of strength. Everything he does is about reinforcing that message, it’s every bit as important to his brand as the racist part. If he is seen as weak (and not being seen at all is a sign of weakness), that’s a major problem for him.