The Swamp

Trying my hand at some Warren Sharp ish here....going to mess with these as the season goes on as they are kind of barebones right now (for example I want to add a "Trubisky Factor" for good defenses to punish bad QBs, etc.) and see if I can make something passable. Week one was a mix of Neighs and Nays, so tweaks made and here goes nothin:

And thus my smoking wet bets for the week (red means meh, yellow means ok and green means NEIGHHHHH):

On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.

Grabbing Bengals, Niners, and Pats from there.

Is the model built on the current rosters?

You don't have to spill any secret sauce, but how much are you advantage are you attributing to home-field?

brian wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:26 pm You don't have to spill any secret sauce, but how much are you advantage are you attributing to home-field?

Haaaa there's no worries about that. I gave each team a value for early and late season advantage but lowered most of them down to near zero to account for the corona season.

HF advantages this week:
Mostly based on travel.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:20 pm Is the model built on the current rosters?

My interpretation of them, yes. So I docked the Saints WRs a bit this week for example.

Cool, thanks.

My value column is misleading - that's value OVER the spread. So for example BUF +5.5 means 5.5 on top of the 5.5 pt spread.

Week 1 was hit or miss but it actually did pretty much spit out LAC 16 - CIN 13. Minor victories!

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.

Short week and Cleveland is the home team right?

ETA: I hadn't seen your remarks about HFA.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.

I don't see any situation short of the 49ers team bus crashing where they can't cover 7 points over the Jets. The Jets were absolutely atrocious on offense, and now Bell is out for a few weeks, and I don't think the Bills offense is nearly as good as the Jets made them look. The Jets were starting their 5th string ILB, and he went down in the first quarter. They are so pathetic.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:30 pmMy interpretation of them, yes. So I docked the Saints WRs a bit this week for example.

Gotcha, so subjective values into an objective model. Are you going to track values over the weeks to see how they change and where you hit/missed on your initials?

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:50 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:30 pmMy interpretation of them, yes. So I docked the Saints WRs a bit this week for example.

Gotcha, so subjective values into an objective model. Are you going to track values over the weeks to see how they change and where you hit/missed on your initials?

Essentially at this point yes.

I'm planning on it - I save each week for posterity.

Way off, waaaaaaaay off on that Dolphins game.

Try hex #008e97 for Miami aqua.

backdoor cover machine is very good

Yuh

Haaa yeah that one should count as a loss

Don't tell that to my bookie.

Backdoor covers count just as much as a dominating cover.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:06 am Backdoor covers count just as much as a dominating cover.

You know what I'll take the backdoor thanks.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:35 am Haaa yeah that one should count as a loss

Always take Burrow plus the points....

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:15 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:35 am Haaa yeah that one should count as a loss

Always take Burrow plus the points....

So, bet on Cincinnati every week?

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:56 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:15 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:35 am Haaa yeah that one should count as a loss

Always take Burrow plus the points....

So, bet on Cincinnati every week?

Well, I don't think it's crazy to weigh the possibility of back door covers against big spreads.

GIven how hard Burrow fights at all times, yup.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:15 pm GIven how hard Burrow fights at all times, yup.

Sorry Cleveland’s running’s backs were too good to cover.

A_B wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:46 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:15 pm GIven how hard Burrow fights at all times, yup.

Sorry Cleveland’s running’s backs were too good to cover.

They were great. A year ago that is a 41-10 bengals loss. A little different with Burrow. He doesn't quit. Unlike a LOT of his teammates.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:46 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:15 pm GIven how hard Burrow fights at all times, yup.

Sorry Cleveland’s running’s backs were too good to cover.

They were great. A year ago that is a 41-10 bengals loss. A little different with Burrow. He doesn't quit. Unlike a LOT of his teammates.

Totally agree. Just saying the five minute kill the clock offense didn’t work when you get 15 yards a carry instead of six.

And again. The bengals offense is not bad. The defense needs is parts back.