NFL Week 6

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Ryan
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NFL Week 6

Post by Ryan »

It's Tuesday so we can move on, right?

A. There are (for now) only 2 games in the late window next week and one of them is Rodgers-Brady. Are "television ratings" still a thing?
B. Still alive in the Swamp Survivor League and there are no good choices
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

I am between the Lions over Jax, the pats over Denver or the dolphins over Jets for my my survivor pick. I am leaning toward Detroit but...
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Re: NFL Week 6

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tennbengal wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:31 am I am between the Lions over Jax, the pats over Denver or the dolphins over Jets for my my survivor pick. I am leaning toward Detroit but...
I feel like you're pulling our (my?) leg.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by L-Jam3 »

I'm between Pats and the Dolphins pending Newton's availability.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

brian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:35 am
tennbengal wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:31 am I am between the Lions over Jax, the pats over Denver or the dolphins over Jets for my my survivor pick. I am leaning toward Detroit but...
I feel like you're pulling our (my?) leg.
No. I have used the Bills, Bucs, Colts, Ravens and Steelers. The Chargers, Raiders, Saints and Seahawks are on byes.

KC is playing Buffalo - so not gonna look at KC.
Green Bay is playing Tampa - so not gonna look at GB.

Rams/Niners is division weird, injuries, and I don't fully trust the Rams.
Titans/Texans - is TN coming off of Covid and playing tonight, so...prefer not to pick that game.
Not picking the Browns over the Steelers.
Not picking the Eagles over the Ravens.
I don't want any part of guessing between Washington and the Giants.
I would prefer to avoid picking the Vikings/Falcons game - Atlanta coming off a coach change and MN without Cook.
I'm not taking the Bengals over the Colts.
I guess I could consider picking the Panthers over the Bears but...I guess I don't trust Carolina yet.

That leaves the aforementioned three games.

And with NE's Covid weirdness, if Newton isn't at QB, do I really pull that trigger? Maybe. It's on the list. I would prefer to stay away from picking the Dolphins because they really do lay the weird eggs in these kind of games, and it's a division game, but that is still on my list. Which leaves Lions /Jags - DJ Chark prob out, Lions off a bye, etc.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by brian »

All I can say is never pick the Lions or pick against the Lions. I mostly follow this team and I have no idea which team will show up against Jacksonville. They could lose by 21, but if they win it will be on a last-second FG. (The last game they've won by more than 6 points was Dec. 30, 2018 against a Green Bay team that didn't have Rodgers).
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

I know your rule. It saved me versus the Cardinals. But I hate my choices this week in general. So perhaps there is an exception to the rule.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by brian »

Godspeed, man. Just be ready for Gardner Minshew to throw for 420 yards.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

brian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:10 am Godspeed, man. Just be ready for Gardner Minshew to throw for 420 yards.
No Chark! (maybe). And holy god the Jags D is bad. Super bad.

If Newton is a go, I will go Pats. But I hate putting survivor on Hoyer or Stidham otherwise...
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by The Sybian »

I think Miami over the Jets is a lock. Jets are truly horrible.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

The Sybian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:19 am I think Miami over the Jets is a lock. Jets are truly horrible.
It's on the list. But...division game. Weird rivalry. Jets will find a way to win one. Dolphins lay eggs with the best of 'em. But, yeah, it's on the list.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by L-Jam3 »

tennbengal wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:24 am
The Sybian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:19 am I think Miami over the Jets is a lock. Jets are truly horrible.
It's on the list. But...division game. Weird rivalry. Jets will find a way to win one. Dolphins lay eggs with the best of 'em. But, yeah, it's on the list.
Even if you think the difference in talent is slight, the difference in coaching is enormous, especially considering Miami has a coach that's at least competent, and the Jets clearly do not.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Ryan »

I know I'm the one who said that aren't any great options but if you're picking the Lions or Dolphins and it isn't Week 15, you deserve a Purple Heart
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Gunpowder »

Miami should beat the everloving shit out of the Jets.

I'm not updating the stat sheets yet but I have a feeling Minnesota is far superior to Atlanta. Atlanta sucks ass and Carolina +3 last week was one of my favorite bets of literally all-time.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

Ok, looking forward to seeing the chart.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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Gunpowder wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:50 pm Miami should beat the everloving shit out of the Jets.
Besides having a better active roster and far better coaching, Miami is playing like they want to win. The Jets are dead in the water.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Pruitt »

Bills haven't been 5-0 since 1991.

And I should add that they have never lost on a Tuesday night.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by degenerasian »

Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
Good lord, why?
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Re: NFL Week 6

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brian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:27 pm
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
Good lord, why?
I mean I get someone has to win that game, but what in the world would possess you to think that's a better bet than almost any other game? You might as well throw a dart at a dartboard if you're going to take a 0-5 team as a Survivor pick unless the entire other team has been in a planecrash the day before or something.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by degenerasian »

brian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:28 pm
brian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:27 pm
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
Good lord, why?
I mean I get someone has to win that game, but what in the world would possess you to think that's a better bet than almost any other game? You might as well throw a dart at a dartboard if you're going to take a 0-5 team as a Survivor pick unless the entire other team has been in a planecrash the day before or something.
I think the Giants looked decent against Dallas yesterday. They have a home run weapon in Slayton, a set QB in Jones and they might be getting accustomed to Jason Garrret's offense. Their defense is decent so I'm not sure the Kyle Allen or Alex Smith led Washington offense can move the ball. The Washington O-Line is awful. And the Giants are 3 point favorites for what it's worth and for survivor, this will be your only chance to take the Giants all season.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Gunpowder »

Going into this week I would have predicted Washington 8 - NYG 6 (lolz). I have a feeling that will change though. Personally I wouldn't take that game but I do understand taking NYG over Washington - Washington is just abysmal offensively.

Danny Turnovers is definitely scary, though.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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Also would predict Miami 24 - NYJ 7 if the game were this past week.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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If we're ever concerned about the lack of fans in the stands, we can count on Travis Henry to throw defensive backs into the seats.

Josh Norman is currently in the front row.

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Re: NFL Week 6

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Josh Norman prob still insisting to anyone who will listen that the play didn't technically count
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Re: NFL Week 6

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degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
I’ve seen worse picks than that
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Re: NFL Week 6

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Rex wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:43 pm
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm Survivor I'd take the Giants over Washington.
I’ve seen worse picks than that
Alex smith three for like two yards per attempt.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Rex »

I think Washington is the real worst team in the league but they do have a good pass rush and that masks a lot of other things. The Giants are equally bad against good pass rushes and bad pass rushes so that doesn’t really help Washington as much as it normally would.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

Gunpowder wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:41 pm Josh Norman prob still insisting to anyone who will listen that the play didn't technically count
I laughed.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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I felt aswirl with warm secretions.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by L-Jam3 »

It feels like Miami is becoming a better option every day since there likely won't be many more chances to go against Gase. If his entire team is quitting on him, which they clearly are, he might not even last until their Week 10 bye.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Gunpowder »

I'm modifying this every week - next step is to try to match like vs. like (ie run O v run D, etc). The hardest part is going to be to eventually find a way to objectively incorporate coaching/scheme into it. Doubt I'll ever have the info necessary to even try that.

This though is the same as last week - biggest flaws right now IMO are that it doesn't really weight penalties/1D rate as well as I'd like (from my numbers 1D% is the single biggest indirect correlation to points scored and allowed) and it weights individual units against total opponent strength (ie a team's run production gets weighted not against an opponents run defense but their total value). Anyway here goes.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Gunpowder »

Tampa for example needs to be punished a lot more for their penalties and poor conversion rates than they are currently.

As long as Baltimore keeps pounding bad teams via turnovers I'm going to be all over the map on them.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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Re: NFL Week 6

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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

I am convinced. Will ride a Dolphin this week.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by Gunpowder »

I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.
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Re: NFL Week 6

Post by tennbengal »

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.
Yeah. And yet, I've seen teams rally in the face of derision and throw everything into getting a win. They probably don't have that in them until Gase is gone, though.
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Re: NFL Week 6

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tennbengal wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:08 am
Gunpowder wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.
Yeah. And yet, I've seen teams rally in the face of derision and throw everything into getting a win. They probably don't have that in them until Gase is gone, though.

It's the NFL, man. Anything can happen. If not for an onside kick the 2013 Browns go into New England and wax the Patriots.
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