NFL Week 7

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

Only a few slight adjustments - really just to Dallas' offense. Takes them from a close win to a closer loss.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

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Last week's finish:
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

NFC East against a perfectly average opponent:
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Re: NFL Week 7

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Re: NFL Week 7

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Seems far too generous
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by L-Jam3 »

Here's an interesting thought experiment. We accept that NFL players today are better athletes than they were in the past, and we can probably guess that coaching today is more advanced than in the past as well. So what do you think is the most past NFL champion who could beat the Jets this year on a neutral field?

I would definitely think the 90s Cowboys would crush this Jets team, and so would the Montana/Young/Rice 49ers. We'd probably have to go back into the 70s that the Jets could beat. Like I think the Jets would be favored against the '68 Jets... I think. Do you think one of the Steel Curtain teams would be favored?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by DSafetyGuy »

Related to L-Jam's question: What if you removed Adam Gase and Gregg Williams from the Jets and replaced them with a league average head coach and defensive coordinator?
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Re: NFL Week 7

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L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:35 am Here's an interesting thought experiment. We accept that NFL players today are better athletes than they were in the past, and we can probably guess that coaching today is more advanced than in the past as well. So what do you think is the most past NFL champion who could beat the Jets this year on a neutral field?

I would definitely think the 90s Cowboys would crush this Jets team, and so would the Montana/Young/Rice 49ers. We'd probably have to go back into the 70s that the Jets could beat. Like I think the Jets would be favored against the '68 Jets... I think. Do you think one of the Steel Curtain teams would be favored?
No way to prove it obvs, but I'll say the 1980 Raiders.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by sancarlos »

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:53 am Related to L-Jam's question: What if you removed Adam Gase and Gregg Williams from the Jets and replaced them with a league average head coach and defensive coordinator?
They'd be the Broncos?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by degenerasian »

Dolphins have named Tua the starter going forward. Seems to be weird timing as Fitzmagic is playing lights out and they're 3-3.
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Re: NFL Week 7

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degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Dolphins have named Tua the starter going forward. Seems to be weird timing as Fitzmagic is playing lights out and they're 3-3.
They may have decided prior to the season started to make Tua the starter after the bye, regardless of what was happening.

Can't hurt that it may also deflate their record and get a higher draft position.
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Re: NFL Week 7

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DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:47 am
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Dolphins have named Tua the starter going forward. Seems to be weird timing as Fitzmagic is playing lights out and they're 3-3.
They may have decided prior to the season started to make Tua the starter after the bye, regardless of what was happening.

Can't hurt that it may also deflate their record and get a higher draft position.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by degenerasian »

Dolphins could actually win the division though, it that matters.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Rush2112 »

Namath leads the 68 Jets over Darnold 15-12 according to WhatIf, but that's with Bell still on the Jets and providing 75 of their 180 yds.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:35 am Here's an interesting thought experiment. We accept that NFL players today are better athletes than they were in the past, and we can probably guess that coaching today is more advanced than in the past as well. So what do you think is the most past NFL champion who could beat the Jets this year on a neutral field?

I would definitely think the 90s Cowboys would crush this Jets team, and so would the Montana/Young/Rice 49ers. We'd probably have to go back into the 70s that the Jets could beat. Like I think the Jets would be favored against the '68 Jets... I think. Do you think one of the Steel Curtain teams would be favored?
Awesome hypothetical.

I do think the Steel Curtain teams would be favored - you can make an argument for instance for Jack Lambert being the first modern ILB.

Honestly you might have to go to the Colts team that won with Earl Morrall.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:47 am
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Dolphins have named Tua the starter going forward. Seems to be weird timing as Fitzmagic is playing lights out and they're 3-3.
They may have decided prior to the season started to make Tua the starter after the bye, regardless of what was happening.

Can't hurt that it may also deflate their record and get a higher draft position.

I still hate it. Let the Fitzmagic experience play to its natural conclusion.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by rass »

How about the 2020 Jets roster in their 1985 bodies (or lack thereof) vs the 1985 Bears roster in their 2020 bodies (or lack thereof?)?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by L-Jam3 »

Wouldn't the 2020 Jets in their 1985 bodies all be a bunch of sperms?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 pm Wouldn't the 2020 Jets in their 1985 bodies all be a bunch of sperms?
Gase hasn't taught them any bad habits yet
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by rass »

L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 pm Wouldn't the 2020 Jets in their 1985 bodies all be a bunch of sperms?
And a baby Flacco
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Pruitt »

Gunpowder wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:10 pm
DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:47 am
degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Dolphins have named Tua the starter going forward. Seems to be weird timing as Fitzmagic is playing lights out and they're 3-3.
They may have decided prior to the season started to make Tua the starter after the bye, regardless of what was happening.

Can't hurt that it may also deflate their record and get a higher draft position.

I still hate it. Let the Fitzmagic experience play to its natural conclusion.
On the one hand, this move makes little sense. On the other hand, getting a team to 3-3 is about the limit of Fitz's "magic."
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by degenerasian »

What about the Jets versus Clemson?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by brian »

degenerasian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:21 pm What about the Jets versus Clemson?
Jets -27
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by mister d »

Nah, they'd atleast score 0.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by DSafetyGuy »



Looking like a pretty fair likelihood of a pedestrian achievement for the second-oldest team in the NFL (8 starters age 27 or under). 27th in yds/play and scores/drive won't cut it with a defense that forces just over one turnover per game. Excited for the window to start closing next year with no QB of the future on the roster.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Pruitt »

I know we periodically have these discussions regarding statistics, but how on earth is the team that won two playoff games and the NFC Championship in 98 the "3rd Worst 5-1 Team Ever?"

The 87 Chargers were - according to Aaron Schatz - better than that Falcons team after 6 games, yet they didn't win again that year?!

I appreciate that some people want to remove all subjectivity from their sports memories, but I just don't get it.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by brian »

Pruitt wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:21 pm I know we periodically have these discussions regarding statistics, but how on earth is the team that won two playoff games and the NFC Championship in 98 the "3rd Worst 5-1 Team Ever?"

The 87 Chargers were - according to Aaron Schatz - better than that Falcons team after 6 games, yet they didn't win again that year?!

I appreciate that some people want to remove all subjectivity from their sports memories, but I just don't get it.
In this specific context at least it's important to remember that it* is based ONLY on DVOA. If you look at the final DVOA for that Atlanta team you can see they improved massively as the season went on. That in itself is pretty interesting and argument for the way stats should work (to give us additional context about something).

* It also being something that itself is pretty useless as far as a metric -- being the worst 5-1 team of all-time is as meaningless as the best 1-5 team of all-time is meaningful. Which is, very little.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by L-Jam3 »

I think they were only looking at the first 6 games. That Falcons team lost on the road to SF, beat the snot out of a tanking Carolina in the Dome, handled a mediocre Giants team, and won by less than one score to terrible Carolina, Philly, and New Orleans. DVOA takes opponent adjustments into account, so those three close wins against shitty opponents doesn’t really show up as quality efforts.

For the record, that Falcons team ended up 7th when including the playoffs. It’s just they didn’t really round into form until later in the year.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

Pruitt wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:21 pm I know we periodically have these discussions regarding statistics, but how on earth is the team that won two playoff games and the NFC Championship in 98 the "3rd Worst 5-1 Team Ever?"

The 87 Chargers were - according to Aaron Schatz - better than that Falcons team after 6 games, yet they didn't win again that year?!

I appreciate that some people want to remove all subjectivity from their sports memories, but I just don't get it.

The 2009 Titans got waxed 59-0 by New England to move to 0-6. They finished 8-8 that year. Do you think perhaps they improved?

He's not saying the 87 Chargers were better than the 98 Falcons. He's saying they were better after 6 games, and they didn't have any equations for future stats that haven't happened yet. You act like people should just stop recording things because sometimes it's weird.

I don't think people saw the 2008 Cardinals nearly winning the Super Bowl as they were getting waxed by Matt Cassel to the tune of 47-7.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:33 pm I think they were only looking at the first 6 games.
That's all there is to it.


My predictions are wrong a lot. Things change as a season goes on, and I'm going to treat the 4-2 Browns differently than I treated the 4-1 Browns.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by A_B »

Gunpowder wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:07 pm
L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:33 pm I think they were only looking at the first 6 games.
That's all there is to it.


My predictions are wrong a lot. Things change as a season goes on, and I'm going to treat the 4-2 Browns differently than I treated the 4-1 Browns.
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Re: NFL Week 7

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Re: NFL Week 7

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brian wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm

* It also being something that itself is pretty useless as far as a metric -- being the worst 5-1 team of all-time is as meaningless as the best 1-5 team of all-time is meaningful. Which is, very little.
But let's discuss the Jets being the worst 0-6 team of all time. How do they compare to the 0-16 Lions? I'm seeing a strong possibility for 0-16 run. Even with all of the injuries, the Jets are giving away key players like Bell and defensive captain Steve McLendon. Jamal Adams is laughing his ass off in Seattle.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Nonlinear FC »

I don't really follow the league that closely, but, um...

WTF are the Dolphins thinking right now?
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

I'm trying to properly put the 1985 Bears into this thing and while doing so I came across a punter I'd never heard of for the '85 Colts named Rohn Stark. Holy shit this guy was like the greatest player of all time relative to his peers.

EDIT: This mf-er was the '95 Steelers punter? I really don't remember him at all.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Brontoburglar »

I remember him from Tecmo Bowl
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Gunpowder »

Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:23 pm I remember him from Tecmo Bowl
I wonder if he knew that he was 3.1 standard deviations better than an average punter in 1985. Probs
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Re: NFL Week 7

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Gunpowder wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:12 am
Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:23 pm I remember him from Tecmo Bowl
I wonder if he knew that he was 3.1 standard deviations better than an average punter in 1985. Probs
It's remarkable to me how gross punting averages have increased in the past 30-35 years. I realize that no one cares about that and we tend to focus on how the passing game has evolved, but there are guys who would be considered "good" punters in the 1980s who would immediately get cut today.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by Rex »

That's a lie. The best punters of that time were Reggie Roby (RIP) and Sean Landeta. Stark sucked balls compared to them.
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Re: NFL Week 7

Post by HaulCitgo »

Has there been another black punter since?
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