The Swamp

They've changed it - you have to put whoever you want on your "foe" list and their posts are automatically hidden, apparently.

http://www.sportsfrog.net/phpbb/app.php/help/faq#f6r0

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:41 pm They've changed it - you have to put whoever you want on your "foe" list and their posts are automatically hidden, apparently.

http://www.sportsfrog.net/phpbb/app.php/help/faq#f6r0

This is correct.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:33 pm

Thanks for this.

I will sleep better tonight!

Good morning, and welcome to Day 11 of Election Week.

The remaining networks have all called AZ for Biden, so it really does look like he will get that historic landslide blowout magic number of 306.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:37 pmAs god is my witness, I can't figure out how I did it. But it must be possible, because he's on ignore. As was DC47 back in the day.

The process definitely changed and its still not a fail-safe because I'm not perpetually logged in.

Damon Young of The Root offers conciliation:

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:00 pm

True to her word...here's the cover:

Iris - by Phoebe & Maggie

where's nate

I can't stand Meghan McCain, but this is funny.

As a future Arizonan, 🤣🤣🤣.



My Arizona friends and I use this as a meme between each other:

Georgia officially called for Biden.

ETA



ETA2

Manchester

Now Trump.

I did a stats:

If you add up the total votes that every current senator (not including the two GA seats) got during their most recent election:

50 Republican Senators - 62,340,508
48 Democrat Senators - 78,722,954

(Dems got 58% of the vote in their wins. GOP got 55% in theirs. The Dem percentage probably should be a bit higher because California's general election had no Republican candidates on the ballot)

"Hey bad stats guy," you say, "that's probably pretty skewed towards the GOP since it was mostly their seats that were at stake this year when turnout was so high. Why don't you run the numbers again, normalizing each state's turnout to 2020?"

50 R - 70,602,678
48 D - 96,597,301 (!)

___________________________________

OK, back to blind analysis. Since we don't have a 2022 election thread, here are the Dems that are currently expected to be defending their seat:

AZ - Kelly
CA - (Harris seat)
CO - Bennet
CT - Blumenthal
HI - Schatz
IL - Duckworth
MD - Van Hollen
NV - Masto
NH - Hassan
NY - Schumer
OR - Wyden
VT - Leahy
WA - Murray

Obviously a lot can happen in 2 years, but where are the potential GOP pickups? Hassan won by like 1000 votes and either a returning Ayotte or Gov. Sununu could be a problem, but NH's getting bluer by the day. I'd put Kelly, Bennet, and Masto in similar buckets. Elected by narrow margins but the demographics tilt their way. Everything else is a non-starter barring a catastrophe, right?

A sampling of risky GOP seats at stake:

NC - Burr (retiring)
PA - Toomey (retiring)
WI - Johnson
MO - Blunt
FL - Rubio??
IN - Young??

Good stuff Turd. If you ever get tired of cartography, you should see if Nate Silver is hiring.

Masto would be dead nuts safe if not for Dems propensity for shitting bed in off-year elections with Dem in presidency. She’s very popular nationally and in NV especially with Latinos. Remind them she’s the first Latina ever in the Senate and that will firm up the LatinX vote in NV.

If Covid is truly behind us and people feel like the economy has recovered, then the Dems should be fine in 2022. But we were in a very similar position twelve years ago, and things didn’t turn out so great in 2010.

Just waiting for the tea party redux after a stimulus is passed for covid relief.

Roy Blunt's seat is exceptionally safe in Missouri. We went Trump +16 and Democrats only put up a fight statewide in the governor's race.

ETA: Missouri has trended red quickly because of the growth of the Springfield area. KC and StL are no longer the two (only) dominant metro areas. The southwest part of the state is basically just a giant blob of white evangelical suburbia now.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am Roy Blunt's seat is exceptionally safe in Missouri. We went Trump +16 and Democrats only put up a fight statewide in the governor's race.

ETA: Missouri has trended red quickly because of the growth of the Springfield area. KC and StL are no longer the two (only) dominant metro areas. The southwest part of the state is basically just a giant blob of white evangelical suburbia now.

Still astounds me that this many people voted for Trump.

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national ... te-tracker?

I feel like the vast majority are just Republicans that can hold their nose for someone so vile and thus any person running for president with a "-R" would get this much or more, but man. It's really sad.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:26 pm Still astounds me that this many people voted for Trump.

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national ... te-tracker?

I feel like the vast majority are just Republicans that can hold their nose for someone so vile and thus any person running for president with a "-R" would get this much or more, but man. It's really sad.

The county where my dad and a significant number of my extended family live in Ohio had an increase in their percentage of Trump voters since 2016 (80% --> 82.3%).

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:45 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:26 pm Still astounds me that this many people voted for Trump.

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national ... te-tracker?

I feel like the vast majority are just Republicans that can hold their nose for someone so vile and thus any person running for president with a "-R" would get this much or more, but man. It's really sad.

The county where my dad and a significant number of my extended family live in Ohio had an increase in their percentage of Trump voters since 2016 (80% --> 82.3%).

This random Reddit poster likens Trump to Tyler Durden and it actually makes complete sense. (Placed in spoiler tag because it's kind of a big post.)

[+] spoiler

The world has been leaving them behind for many years. Honestly, something needs to be done about it, because there are a lot of them. The world leaving them behind is one of the reasons why they like Trump, in my opinion. The best way that I have found to describe what they see in him is this:


*They see him as Tyler Durden.*


They have been hurt, left behind by the world, that has told them every day that their cultural ideas are the past, that they and their kind are being shoved aside for the new. They are going broke, their friends are dying of meth, and they can't get a job because they don't have one of those fancy college degrees. The people WITH the college degrees are in the positions of power over them, and treat them like crap. the Democrats seem only interested in women and minorities. Then along comes Trump, who tells them that he *hears* them.

Like Tyler Durden, he says "you - you are being oppressed by the changing of the world. I hear you, and I see you. The system has failed! I will tear down everything that has been built up in recent times, and return to the world the way it used to be. I won't start wars in the Middle east. I won't raise taxes. I won't take away your guns, which is one of the few ways you feel any power or control at all in your life. Also fuck those guys over there who say you don't matter! Fuck their feelings, and the things that they care about! You matter! I will make sure you aren't left behind!"

They look at Trump, a trust-fund baby who in reality *hates* them, and they see Tyler Durden. They think that he will tear it all down, and anything that will be left will be better than what they currently have. It is a spastic, violent reaction to real pain from real people who have been left behind by the world.

Against that, they just don't CARE about racism. They don't CARE about sexism. They don't CARE if he hurts people and damages the country, because that is what he is there to do. Reason and logic are out the window in the face of their pain. It is even worse, as they cannot really admit this pain to themselves, as they are "tough" and "self-reliant".

Trying to fix this will be even harder, because lashing out and causing destruction is a lot easier than actually working to fix the problem. So they will vote to put Republicans in charge who will keep the minimum wage low. They will vote against their best interests. They will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into the modern age, and forced to accept a world that cares for them.

And a spoiler, for a 20+ year old movie:

[+] spoiler

Trump, like Tyler Darden, is a complete fabrication that falls apart once you apply the slightest bit of examination.

Emily Murphy will be questioned by Katie Porter today (hopefully).

Some past highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRdB2c ... yuPbWfOZyw

According to https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker, Biden's vote count has now gone past 80 million.

His lead is up to 6.15 million.

Also, Pennsylvania has certified its results.

Biden beat Trump by a little more than 80,000. Jorgenson got 79,380.

Why didn't Trump just attack California and New York's elections? It's not like the margins were close enough anywhere for a granular approach to work anyway. One of his biggest problems was that Pennsylvania/Michigan/Georgia/Arizona were prepared for the shitshow because they saw it coming. Their bureaucrats learned lessons from prior close elections. Meanwhile, NY stopped caring about the quality of its elections years ago and I'm not sure CA is much better. And it's easy to sell the GOP on a broadside attack on NY and CA. I'm beginning to think this Trump guy is not the brightest.

Rex wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:01 pm Why didn't Trump just attack California and New York's elections? It's not like the margins were close enough anywhere for a granular approach to work anyway. One of his biggest problems was that Pennsylvania/Michigan/Georgia/Arizona were prepared for the shitshow because they saw it coming. Their bureaucrats learned lessons from prior close elections. Meanwhile, NY stopped caring about the quality of its elections years ago and I'm not sure CA is much better. And it's easy to sell the GOP on a broadside attack on NY and CA. I'm beginning to think this Trump guy is not the brightest.

I dunno. I don't think it was totally insane for Trump to think that the Republicans in charge of those states *might* use their power, illegally, quasi-legally, and potentially legally, to throw their states' electoral votes to Trump. Democrats are in charge of NY and CA, so no way.

If it had come down to one of those four states, it's quite possible they would have gone through with some bullshit to throw the election to Trump.

Thank god for those 43,000 votes out of 160 million cast.

NY just dumped a bunch of absentee/early ballot results.

Biden's popular vote total is now over 81 million and his lead is 6.9 million.

Pretty nice.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:44 am Also, Pennsylvania has certified its results.

Biden beat Trump by a little more than 80,000. Jorgenson got 79,380.

Holy shit he won by 1.01 Jorgs!

So has there been a definitive article written yet about the true effect of the ratfucking of the Post Office and its influence in the election?

Or is it just swept under the umbrella of "people voted so soon that dismantling high speed sorters didn't matter. Nice try, DeJoy."

Because, man, those couple months leading up to the election were doom and gloom, cataclysmic, earth is ending level media coverage and it seems like a while bunch of people were able to vote without issue.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:44 amBecause, man, those couple months leading up to the election were doom and gloom, cataclysmic, earth is ending level media coverage and it seems like a while bunch of people were able to vote without issue.

Yeah but to be fair, every issue leading up to the election was like that. Remember when Trump was going to cancel the election? Or right-wingers were going to shoot up polling places where Blacks were voting?

I do think that once the dust settles, we'll find that the Post Office did ratfuck the election in certain places. There were stories about a bunch of undelivered ballots in Palm Beach County - since Florida didn't allow counting of ballots that arrived after Election Day, I don't think they were counted. And while I don't think it was enough to affect the Biden vs Trump race, it's conceivable that undelivered ballots could have affected a close Congressional race or local race.

(Edit to clarify - I do think that the freakout level of coverage of the mail issue probably helped alleviate the potential problem, because it was enough to break through the din and prompt folks to either deliver ballots in person or mail them early enough to arrive in time.)

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:40 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:44 amBecause, man, those couple months leading up to the election were doom and gloom, cataclysmic, earth is ending level media coverage and it seems like a while bunch of people were able to vote without issue.

Yeah but to be fair, every issue leading up to the election was like that. Remember when Trump was going to cancel the election? Or right-wingers were going to shoot up polling places where Blacks were voting?

I do think that once the dust settles, we'll find that the Post Office did ratfuck the election in certain places. There were stories about a bunch of undelivered ballots in Palm Beach County - since Florida didn't allow counting of ballots that arrived after Election Day, I don't think they were counted. And while I don't think it was enough to affect the Biden vs Trump race, it's conceivable that undelivered ballots could have affected a close Congressional race or local race.

(Edit to clarify - I do think that the freakout level of coverage of the mail issue probably helped alleviate the potential problem, because it was enough to break through the din and prompt folks to either deliver ballots in person or mail them early enough to arrive in time.)

Agree with everything Steve said, especially the coverage helping alleviate the problem. Just wanted to add that we may never know the extent, as DeJoy actively obstructed the court's efforts to ascertain the extent of fuckery. I don't have time to pull the quotes, but in court, on the day DeJoy was required to provide information, he said something to the effect that he didn't realize the very clear court order requiring him to provide proof that they didn't hide ballots actually required him to inspect facilities and make sure they weren't hiding ballots.

We also probably lucked out that, even with a willing Senate and stacked SCOTUS, this administration seems to have proven itself too incompetent to properly cheat.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:21 pm

Only the best.

A_B wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:09 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:21 pm

Only the best.

Elite Strike Force!