NFL Week 17

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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Jerloma
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NFL Week 17

Post by Jerloma »

Last edited by Jerloma on Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by brian »

Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?
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Re: NFL Week 17

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brian wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:59 pm Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?
Thank you. That right?
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Jerloma »

I had some marijuanas.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by brian »

Jerloma wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:11 pm
brian wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:59 pm Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?
Thank you. That right?
Yeah, correct now.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Rex »

Why the league didn't set aside a week in between Week 17 and the start of the playoffs is beyond me. Like it matters to anyone when the playoffs end.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by govmentchedda »

Jerloma thanks you
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by The Sybian »

rass wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:46 am

(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)
Man, a couple weeks ago it seemed impossible the Browns could miss the playoffs, especially since one of the games they'd have to lose was against the Jets. This is the Brownsiest thing ever. I was really rooting for them. (Maybe that's what did them in?)
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by DSafetyGuy »

One of the local Chicago guys posted a fun article about what Trubisky needs to do Sunday for the Bears to beat the Packers and the likelihood of it happening. He unfortunately used passer rating, but I'll also post league averages as a reference.

Trubisky has 16 games with over a 100 passer rating in his four seasons (league averages: 86.9, 92.9, 90.4, 93.7). One of those games has come against a team that would finish with a winning record: the 2017 Panthers, who went 11-5. Trubisky threw seven passes in that game.

I described that game this way:
Bears had 153 yards of offense yesterday, 70 coming on one play, while Eddie Jackson's two returns for scores covered 151 yards. They ran 37 plays on offense, so they averaged 4.1 yards per play overall and 2.3 yards per play when you remove the longest play.

I hate John Fox (and that field goal was with the ball about 18" from the end zone).
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Re: NFL Week 17

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The Sybian wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:00 am
rass wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:46 am

(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)
Man, a couple weeks ago it seemed impossible the Browns could miss the playoffs, especially since one of the games they'd have to lose was against the Jets. This is the Brownsiest thing ever. I was really rooting for them. (Maybe that's what did them in?)
OH DID IT??????
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by A_B »

Although that post is not correct now. If the browns get to 11-5 they will be in, but that it's still not clinched in an expanded playoff...
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by L-Jam3 »

To better reflect today’s game, the All-Pro teams should select three WRs, because picking who would sit this year between DaVante, DeAndre, and Diggs would really be a fool’s errand.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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I like the Browns and think they should be a playoff team, but when half of your schedule is the NFC East plus the Jags, Texans and Bengals, it's probably better to think of them as an 8-9 win team that really does need another win to clinch.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Brontoburglar »

Rex wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:30 am I like the Browns and think they should be a playoff team, but when half of your schedule is the NFC East plus the Jags, Texans and Bengals, it's probably better to think of them as an 8-9 win team that really does need another win to clinch.
2-3 against teams over .500 and 8-2 against those with losing records. I figured they had like 6 or 7 games at least against winning teams
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Rex »

The Ravens are an even more extreme example. Flat track bullies.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by tennbengal »

Ftizmagic out with the covid.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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tennbengal wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:47 pm Ftizmagic out with the covid.
Bills in a blowout!
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Gunpowder »

Rex wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:44 pm The Ravens are an even more extreme example. Flat track bullies.
This style of offense (Browns to a much lesser degree than the Ravens) just pounds bad teams. And I mean that in a good way, not as a knock against them.

I thought that would be the Bills offense this year but they probably saw 2020 Josh Allen and said "nah we're gonna air it out every play".
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Gunpowder »

BTWs I'm 61% for the year on the wet and damp games (in green). I might have to try a full season of betting all of them next year.
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Wish I would have taken the moneyline on Cincy.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Gunpowder »

I'm not counting this week since my models can't yet properly account for teams not trying to win. (I do plan on adding things like "urgency" or something like that during the summer).

But I am going to take my best guesses at this week anyway. I would probably shift the modifiers a little bit from where they are ideally but the first scores I got had the Patriots beating the Jets 11-10 and I wanted to keep them for that score alone.

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Re: NFL Week 17

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Apparently this thing is loving Mitch Trubisky beating up the dregs of the league.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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Gunpowder wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:16 pm Apparently this thing is loving Mitch Trubisky beating up the dregs of the league.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by tennbengal »

Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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Every Saints running back out.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Gunpowder »

Pruitt wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:03 pm Every Saints running back out.
Accounted for that to a degree. Perhaps not a high enough degree but a degree nonetheless.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by sancarlos »

Week 17 is a tough one to bet. Some non-playoff teams still playing hard, and others have checked out. You don’t always know which will be which.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Rex »

The Giants just rushed 3, drew a holding penalty and still got the sack.

Tampa at Dallas next week is really going to be something.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Rex »

Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by L-Jam3 »

Rex wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:29 pm Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.
If it means McCarthy can lose in the playoffs for the fifth time in a walk-off manner, all the better.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by wlu_lax6 »

L-Jam3 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:08 pm
Rex wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:29 pm Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.
If it means McCarthy can lose in the playoffs for the fifth time in a walk-off manner, all the better.
So we are assuming Washington won't win tonight. If so I hope it is in a soul crushing way.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by Ryan »

tennbengal wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.
You undersold this
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by bfj »

tennbengal wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.
You ain’t lying. Ravens with 350 yds rushing through the 3rd q.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by rass »

Hey lions got screwed again!
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by tennbengal »

Ryan wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:11 pm
tennbengal wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.
You undersold this
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by tennbengal »

bfj wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:16 pm
tennbengal wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.
You ain’t lying. Ravens with 350 yds rushing through the 3rd q.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by brian »

That QB read play on 4th down with Dalton was genius. I think Kellen Moore is gonna be a great HC one day.
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by bfj »

Congrats AB and Pruitt. 19 years is a long time.
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Re: NFL Week 17

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The crowd is going nuts at the meadowlands!
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Re: NFL Week 17

Post by rass »

bfj wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:10 pm Congrats AB and Pruitt. 19 years is a long time.
Fuck Browns
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