The Sweet Science

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:18 am

They talked about the current betting action on this week's Behind the Bets podcast. McGregor-Mayweather talk starts at 17:16 mark.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:55 pm

I enjoyed reading the big Wright Thompson feature about McGregor, but a lot of Irish people are calling out Thompson for pretty drastically exaggerating how dangerous McGregor's Dublin neighborhood is/was. Thompson likely takes a degree of artistic license in all his long form pieces, but I did find his depiction of Dublin to be pretty damn bleak compared to my impression of the city when I was there a few years ago.

Post by **brian** » Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:11 pm

Joe K wrote:I enjoyed reading the big Wright Thompson feature about McGregor, but a lot of Irish people are calling out Thompson for pretty drastically exaggerating how dangerous McGregor's Dublin neighborhood is/was. Thompson likely takes a degree of artistic license in all his long form pieces, but I did find his depiction of Dublin to be pretty damn bleak compared to my impression of the city when I was there a few years ago.

Pretty sure I could show you some areas of Las Vegas that would curl your ballhair, but it's not any part of town any tourist would ever get to even accidentally.

(Which isn't to say Thompson didn't take some artistic license.)

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:29 pm

brian wrote:
Joe K wrote:I enjoyed reading the big Wright Thompson feature about McGregor, but a lot of Irish people are calling out Thompson for pretty drastically exaggerating how dangerous McGregor's Dublin neighborhood is/was. Thompson likely takes a degree of artistic license in all his long form pieces, but I did find his depiction of Dublin to be pretty damn bleak compared to my impression of the city when I was there a few years ago.

Pretty sure I could show you some areas of Las Vegas that would curl your ballhair, but it's not any part of town any tourist would ever get to even accidentally.

(Which isn't to say Thompson didn't take some artistic license.)

Here's an article from an Irish site that summarizes the criticism of Thompson:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/espn-brands-dublin-a-clannish-parochial-place-where-crossing-the-wrong-street-earns-you-an-awhipping-36009140.html

McGregor definitely had some friends and acquaintances who were tied up in organized crime, but it seems like Thompson portrayed his entire neighborhood as significantly more dangerous and crime-ridden than it actually is. So I can see why that would piss off Dubliners who live there.

Post by **brian** » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:39 pm

No escaping that this is just a weird town to live in sometimes.

I can't comprehend paying $50,000 for a table at a club for one night or any of this shit really.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:57 pm

brian wrote:No escaping that this is just a weird town to live in sometimes.

I can't comprehend paying $50,000 for a table at a club for one night or any of this shit really.

Meanwhile it's a struggle to get the minimum wage up to $7.50 an hour!

But the craziest thing in that article - and it is full of insane figures, is the fact that Mayweather is only -$500. Max Kellerman compared this bout to being like LeBron James versus Michael Phelps in one on one.

The traditional wisdom is to follow the sharp bets, the big money boys...

McGregor has tallied over 6,000 transactions or tickets at the MGM Resorts sportsbooks compared to just 200 for Mayweather, but there's a big difference in the amount being wagered. The average McGregor bet at MGM Resorts is about $112 per ticket while the average bet for Mayweather is about $3,700 per ticket.

Post by **brian** » Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:04 pm

Yeah I almost quoted that specific paragraph. If ever there was an encapsulation of what this town was built on. Rarely do you get a chance like this to bet on damn near a sure thing and "only" lay -500. These days I'm not so sure I'd bet on waking up tomorrow at less than -1000.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:44 pm

Someone is going to be dressed well for Saturday:

https://m.imgur.com/40RZvu2

duff · Post by **duff** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:46 pm

The kid is going to be black and blue from the pounding Mayweather is going to give his pops.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:51 pm

brian wrote:These days I'm not so sure I'd bet on waking up tomorrow at less than -1000.

But ...

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:17 pm

I'm more cash poor than risk averse these days so bet $1000 on Mayweather to win $200. Really wish I had another couple grand in liquid cash to put on it. Alas.

Johnny Carwash · Post by **Johnny Carwash** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:22 pm

Finally the end is near. This was getting to be like the 2016 election.

If I were a betting man (I'm not), I wouldn't discount a DQ or No-Contest type outcome. Like, McGregor realizes he can't win and pulls an MMA move just for the drama. The circus around the whole thing makes me think something like this is strong possibility, maybe even 50/50.

I also wouldn't sleep on Mayweather by KO. I know he's not a big puncher by boxing standards, but don't rule out what he could do by accumulation.

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:53 pm

Johnny Carwash wrote:I also wouldn't sleep on Mayweather by KO. I know he's not a big puncher by boxing standards, but don't rule out what he could do by accumulation.

Yeah, that's my GUESS, but I didn't want to put real money on that outcome.

Rams Fanny and I discussed it last week (at least I think it was him and I, hard to remember one alcohol-fueled sports discussion from another sometimes), but he thinks it'll be Mayweather in a decision, the logic of which I get. I think McGregor is not prepared to absorb the kind of punishment he's going to absorb for up to 36 minutes even from a guy who doesn't have much power any more. If this thing goes down like I think it will, the Punchstat numbers are going to make Mayweather-Pacquiao look like Balboa-Drago. McGregor might literally only land a couple dozen punches. Between him having to feel like he's going to have to get an early knockout to win (probably correct) and Mayweather's likely still-pristine conditioning (his true secret weapon lo these many years), if it lasts longer than 3 or 4 rounds, Mayweather will probably be able to tune up McGregor as much or as little as he wants to.

I believe this is going to be Mayweather's last fight so I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a couple of extra chances come the 7th or 8th round and looks to put him down.

All that to say I gave serious consideration to betting Mayweather by KO/TKO instead which would have been closer to even money than -500.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:53 pm

I read that McGregor would lose 90% of his purse if he uses a non-boxing move during the fight. This link quotes Dana White as saying that "Conor would depart with a whole lot of money if that ever happened.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/b ... 102870354/

I think PBF is more likely to win by decision - he hasn't knocked anyone out since he sucker punched Victor Ortiz back in 2011. I can see McGregor clamming up and focusing on protecting himself once he sees the writing on the wall (as most big punchers (except Maidana) have done against PBF).

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:02 pm

Keg wrote:I read that McGregor would lose 90% of his purse if he uses a non-boxing move during the fight. This link quotes Dana White as saying that "Conor would depart with a whole lot of money if that ever happened.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/b ... 102870354/

I think PBF is more likely to win by decision - he hasn't knocked anyone out since he sucker punched Victor Ortiz back in 2011. I can see McGregor clamming up and focusing on protecting himself once he sees the writing on the wall (as most big punchers (except Maidana) have done against PBF).

That all sounds correct to me -- the only caveat in my mind is that I think win or lose this is McGregor's last fight, boxing or MMA. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take his $70M or whatever insane purse he ends up with and retire. MMA, even UFC, doesn't pay for shit and he can make 10x what he'd make in MMA as a "brand". Fuck I hate that term. But it applies in this case.

Given that, he might not pack it in after the fourth or fifth round after not touching Floyd like most guys have done. McGregor's a fucking douche but I think he might go out on his shield.

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:01 pm

So this shit gets interesting. My buddy Mike's sports betting pals/insiders are saying this is the best gambling opportunity in the history of legalized gambling (with the caveat of shit that wasn't actually fixed). There are syndicates ready to put down millions on Mayweather. Floyd himself is talking about betting $5M on himself.

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:03 pm

Anyway all late money should be all Mayweather. The Irish punters are just getting in and keeping things steady. The real wise guys are betting a little at a time. Come Saturday afternoon it's going to be all Floyd money all the time

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:57 am

I gotta go downtown for a blackjack tournament tonight and forgot there's a fucking Dropkick Murphys concert downtown also tonight. I hate that fucking band and their douchebag fans and it's going to be 1 million fucking times worse because of this fucking fight. Fuck McGregor. 50-50 chance I get punched at some point in the next 15 hours.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:11 pm

brian wrote:So this shit gets interesting. My buddy Mike's sports betting pals/insiders are saying this is the best gambling opportunity in the history of legalized gambling (with the caveat of shit that wasn't actually fixed). There are syndicates ready to put down millions on Mayweather. Floyd himself is talking about betting $5M on himself.

There's really been nothing like it before. Only way Mayweather loses is by throwing the fight or having a heart attack. Even if he breaks both fists early in the fight, he'll still be able to win it on points.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:32 pm

Pruitt wrote:
brian wrote:So this shit gets interesting. My buddy Mike's sports betting pals/insiders are saying this is the best gambling opportunity in the history of legalized gambling (with the caveat of shit that wasn't actually fixed). There are syndicates ready to put down millions on Mayweather. Floyd himself is talking about betting $5M on himself.

There's really been nothing like it before. Only way Mayweather loses is by throwing the fight or having a heart attack. Even if he breaks both fists early in the fight, he'll still be able to win it on points.

This is probably the main thing that would give me pause about betting big on Mayweather (not that I have millions of dollars to bet on sports or anything). He's probably lost so much money gambling on sports over the years that I wouldn't completely put it past him to take a dive.

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:36 pm

If he really bets $5M on himself, then you can assume that's not a concern unless he somehow has people offshore betting millions on McGregor. Any kind of serious action on McGregor that would actually make him any money would be easily tracked, even through surrogates. Also, he's going to make about $100M or more on this fight and that would all be seized if he actually got caught doing anything like that. (The NGC waits a few weeks to cut checks to make sure no funny business with wagering, drug tests are passed, etc.)

He has to notify the Nevada Gaming Authority if he makes a wager on himself, but it is legal according to Nevada law to bet on yourself in a boxing/MMA match.

Long story short, I very much doubt that's a possibility. The red tape and tracking on legal sports betting in Nevada makes any kind of a fix almost impossible, especially on a fight like this where there's a lot of money being wagered. Might be easier on a low, low undercard bout I suppose.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:45 pm

If he's making $100MM for fighting, what's 5% of that to drive up money for whoever needs to make money off you?

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:51 pm

mister d wrote:If he's making $100MM for fighting, what's 5% of that to drive up money for whoever needs to make money off you?

Yeah, but every transaction is tracked down to the nth level. Anything over $5,000 in sports betting results in a W2-G and the IRS being notified, etc. Any kind of fix would have to involve the mob or underworld types and illegal offshore betting. He could be mixed up with those guys I suppose, but he lives in Las Vegas and bets legally at sports books who are happy to take his 6-figure bets. If he's betting even more money with the mob he's dumber than most people think he is, which is pretty damn dumb.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:53 pm

brian wrote:If he really bets $5M on himself, then you can assume that's not a concern unless he somehow has people offshore betting millions on McGregor. Any kind of serious action on McGregor that would actually make him any money would be easily tracked, even through surrogates. Also, he's going to make about $100M or more on this fight and that would all be seized if he actually got caught doing anything like that. (The NGC waits a few weeks to cut checks to make sure no funny business with wagering, drug tests are passed, etc.)

He has to notify the Nevada Gaming Authority if he makes a wager on himself, but it is legal according to Nevada law to bet on yourself in a boxing/MMA match.

Long story short, I very much doubt that's a possibility. The red tape and tracking on legal sports betting in Nevada makes any kind of a fix almost impossible, especially on a fight like this where there's a lot of money being wagered. Might be easier on a low, low undercard bout I suppose.

Interesting. This doubles as a very good argument for sports betting being legalized (and regulated) everywhere.

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:59 pm

Joe K wrote:
brian wrote:If he really bets $5M on himself, then you can assume that's not a concern unless he somehow has people offshore betting millions on McGregor. Any kind of serious action on McGregor that would actually make him any money would be easily tracked, even through surrogates. Also, he's going to make about $100M or more on this fight and that would all be seized if he actually got caught doing anything like that. (The NGC waits a few weeks to cut checks to make sure no funny business with wagering, drug tests are passed, etc.)

He has to notify the Nevada Gaming Authority if he makes a wager on himself, but it is legal according to Nevada law to bet on yourself in a boxing/MMA match.

Long story short, I very much doubt that's a possibility. The red tape and tracking on legal sports betting in Nevada makes any kind of a fix almost impossible, especially on a fight like this where there's a lot of money being wagered. Might be easier on a low, low undercard bout I suppose.

Interesting. This doubles as a very good argument for sports betting being legalized (and regulated) everywhere.

Almost any basketball point-shaving scandal in the last 20 years has been uncovered either directly because of or with the help of Nevada gaming officials and their data. Assume a world where's no legal sports betting in the United States and there's no data to be had in those situations. It would almost certainly increase fixed games, point shaving, etc. Especially at the college level where (obvs) kids aren't getting any money.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:00 pm

brian wrote:Yeah, but every transaction is tracked down to the nth level. Anything over $5,000 in sports betting results in a W2-G and the IRS being notified, etc. Any kind of fix would have to involve the mob or underworld types and illegal offshore betting. He could be mixed up with those guys I suppose, but he lives in Las Vegas and bets legally at sports books who are happy to take his 6-figure bets. If he's betting even more money with the mob he's dumber than most people think he is, which is pretty damn dumb.

Oh, I was thinking more of a relieving of debts or under duress, not where he would actually get money back.

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:03 pm

Yeah, I suppose that's possible but it's hard to imagine him being involved with any of those types of guys. Vegas is a surprisingly small town and the feds keep a close eye on the mob activity here. He'd have to be 8 figures deep with any of those guys for him to even consider throwing a fight, maybe more.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:05 pm

I have two options i'm considering... Mayweather is 1-5 so a $500 bet would net $100

or under 7.5 rounds is even money (-110). Can't see it lasting that long.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:45 pm

degenerasian wrote:I have two options i'm considering... Mayweather is 1-5 so a $500 bet would net $100

or under 7.5 rounds is even money (-110). Can't see it lasting that long.

Mayweather has no power... for a boxer. But 5 rounds or so of tenderizing McGregor's ribs and he should be ready to go.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:52 pm

Give me the split if you're betting MacGregor but you're not Irish in terms of "this could be a big odds fix" and "MacGregor could be unorthodox to a boxer and land a lucky knockout punch".

Post by **brian** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:13 pm

My buddy who works at Mirage just told me a $1M bet came in yesterday on Mayweather. That might just be the tip of the iceberg. Sounds like this is going to be the most wagered-on fight in Nevada history.

ETA: Apparently it even made the news.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:52 pm

My last comment on this nonsense is that if Mayweather loses, I predict that he will face charges.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:19 pm

Davis 2lbs heavy and as a result forfeits IBF title. They will box tomorrow but no belt in play.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc- ... 9747cc39f6

Post by **brian** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:42 am

Floyd up to -600 now at most books. Glad I got down at -500.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:53 pm

Fox is airing some prelim bouts, so why the hell not. First one pretty good scrap until the stronger young welterweight floored his opponent, who is weakening fast.

Next up is a gator and a grizzly. Ten rounds for the North American mammo-amphibio belt.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:54 pm

brian wrote:Floyd up to -600 now at most books. Glad I got down at -500.

yup me too, i tacked on the Dodgers last night so $300 down to make $200.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:58 pm

So far do you guys like the blonde of the brunette?

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:16 pm

I got a text from a friend who is getting the "farce" tonight (his word, not mine), so my uneducated eyes will be watching it, unless I fall asleep.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:35 pm

They didn't show the girl fight here. Chick from Hartlepool, UK (on the coast near Newcastle, hard coal country) won her pro debut. I don't blame them throwing one of these as the first bout, no one is there anyway.

Post by **brian** » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:58 pm

5M PPV buys. Jesus Christ. Mayweather is going to clear $250 million tonight. That's gotta put his total earnings to about a billion.