Right. Even though one-against-the-field bets are usually suckers, what's the breakeven where you'd take a straight up bet on the Cubs right now? Three years?
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
brian wrote:If the Cubs win a WS under his tenure then they might as well get his plaque ready for Cooperstown.
It probably goes hand-in-hand with money and ownership's willingness to turn over the keys, and there's obviously always some blurriness on the outside, but he has to be in the discussion for greatest exec ever. The only real baseball analogy for what he did in Boston would be what he's in the process of doing in Chicago.
Of course, the Cubs have won division titles before. Probably ought to wait until after the playoffs to take a victory lap.
Well that's kind of my point; Theo + Hoyer + all have created an indefinite window. Obviously they'd want to win this year, but I can't see any way another team would start 2017 at better odds unless Bryant and Rizzo collide and die on the mound while getting eliminated.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
Very cool film. Surf scenes actually looked like Cali central coast, Morro Bay or Pismo maybe, and some at Ventura. That photographer has a great touch for the northern coast scenes too. And now I'm a huge Norris fan.
Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.
Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
howard wrote:That's crazy. Surfing in Oregon? In the winter?
Very cool film. Surf scenes actually looked like Cali central coast, Morro Bay or Pismo maybe, and some at Ventura. That photographer has a great touch for the northern coast scenes too. And now I'm a huge Norris fan.
What's more amazing is the entire budget of that production only required them to sell 2 of their coolers.
DSafetyGuy wrote:Swap managers with Detroit and we'll find out how good he is compared to a well-below replacement-level manager.
Replacement level for a manager is such a weird concept because (1) tactical replacement level exceeds every active manager and (2) how do you even decide the sample?
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
brian wrote:If the Cubs win a WS under his tenure then they might as well get his plaque ready for Cooperstown.
It probably goes hand-in-hand with money and ownership's willingness to turn over the keys, and there's obviously always some blurriness on the outside, but he has to be in the discussion for greatest exec ever. The only real baseball analogy for what he did in Boston would be what he's in the process of doing in Chicago.
Of course, the Cubs have won division titles before. Probably ought to wait until after the playoffs to take a victory lap.
I'm certainly not taking a victory lap. Good god, I remember 2008 very well, where the Cubs led from wire to wire, won 97 games, and then got swept in the NLDS by the fucking Dodgers.
But this team does seem different. None of the previous Cubs teams have been this good or this consistent throughout the lineup. They have played at a .652 clip over their last 230 games. I would like to see more power (Kyle Schwarber, where are you?), and I guess I'm nervous about Arrieta's recent tendency to lose the strike zone, but the Cubs have to be situated as well as any team has been recently.
And I do believe they are only going to get better over the next few years, subject to their starting pitchers getting old and injured.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
brian wrote:If the Cubs win a WS under his tenure then they might as well get his plaque ready for Cooperstown.
It probably goes hand-in-hand with money and ownership's willingness to turn over the keys, and there's obviously always some blurriness on the outside, but he has to be in the discussion for greatest exec ever. The only real baseball analogy for what he did in Boston would be what he's in the process of doing in Chicago.
Of course, the Cubs have won division titles before. Probably ought to wait until after the playoffs to take a victory lap.
I'm certainly not taking a victory lap. Good god, I remember 2008 very well, where the Cubs led from wire to wire, won 97 games, and then got swept in the NLDS by the fucking Dodgers.
But this team does seem different. None of the previous Cubs teams have been this good or this consistent throughout the lineup. They have played at a .652 clip over their last 230 games. I would like to see more power (Kyle Schwarber, where are you?), and I guess I'm nervous about Arrieta's recent tendency to lose the strike zone, but the Cubs have to be situated as well as any team has been recently.
And I do believe they are only going to get better over the next few years, subject to their starting pitchers getting old and injured.
There's going to be pressure no doubt. If the wildcard team punches the Cubs in the face and takes Game 1 on Friday, all the curse articles come out again. How would a young team handle that?
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
brian wrote:If the Cubs win a WS under his tenure then they might as well get his plaque ready for Cooperstown.
It probably goes hand-in-hand with money and ownership's willingness to turn over the keys, and there's obviously always some blurriness on the outside, but he has to be in the discussion for greatest exec ever. The only real baseball analogy for what he did in Boston would be what he's in the process of doing in Chicago.
Of course, the Cubs have won division titles before. Probably ought to wait until after the playoffs to take a victory lap.
I'm certainly not taking a victory lap. Good god, I remember 2008 very well, where the Cubs led from wire to wire, won 97 games, and then got swept in the NLDS by the fucking Dodgers.
But this team does seem different. None of the previous Cubs teams have been this good or this consistent throughout the lineup. They have played at a .652 clip over their last 230 games. I would like to see more power (Kyle Schwarber, where are you?), and I guess I'm nervous about Arrieta's recent tendency to lose the strike zone, but the Cubs have to be situated as well as any team has been recently.
And I do believe they are only going to get better over the next few years, subject to their starting pitchers getting old and injured.
There's going to be pressure no doubt. If the wildcard team punches the Cubs in the face and takes Game 1 on Friday, all the curse articles come out again. How would a young team handle that?
I think (hope) they would handle that like they handled the NLDS last year, when they lost the first game to the Cardinals.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Steve of phpBB wrote:
I think (hope) they would handle that like they handled the NLDS last year, when they lost the first game to the Cardinals.
More hype/expectation this year though
Sorry, but this is a pretty silly argument you're making. The Cubs have way more starting pitching depth than any of their likely NLDS opponents. Even if they lose Game 1, the pitching matchups would favor them in the rest of the series. And do you really think the Cubs' stars care about "curses" or media hot takes? Lester was an excellent postseason performer for Boston, which is about as insane a media environment as you'll find. I also don't see Rizzo or Bryant losing sleep over that.
I think that's the point though. If the Cubs lose it'll be because of the weird stuff that can happen in a small sample size, not because of fucking curses or nerves or whatever other hot takes the Skip Baylesses of the world will drop on their heads.
sancarlos wrote:But, Joe, perhaps you'll acknowledge human superstition, fallability, and the fact that strange things often occur in a short series.
Obviously baseball is particularly amenable to random outcomes over small sample sizes. I just don't see any reason to think that the Cubs players or Madden will choke due to concerns about curses or media hype. If they lose, either in the NLDS or later, I doubt that will have anything to do with it.
Joe K wrote:Lester was an excellent postseason performer for Boston, which is about as insane a media environment as you'll find. I also don't see Rizzo or Bryant losing sleep over that.
Although Lester is almost certain to start Game 1 - so if the Giants take Game 1, it'll be against this excellent postseason performer. So maybe I should panic if that happens. Especially because the Giants scare me more than the Mets or Cards, because they can throw shutdown starters in three games. They can do what the 2003 Cubs did to the 101-win Braves.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
DSafetyGuy wrote:Swap managers with Detroit and we'll find out how good he is compared to a well-below replacement-level manager.
Replacement level for a manager is such a weird concept because (1) tactical replacement level exceeds every active manager and (2) how do you even decide the sample?
I agree completely on first point, but I think "replacement level" for managers would be "guy who does everything by the book", simply because that is a zero, like a robot arm in a factory that welds one spot, over and over.
“All I'm sayin' is, he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.”
But "the book" involves listening to your gut which is pretty haphazard. And I think "the book" is sub-zero as well. Statistical optimization would be replacement level, more-often-successfully-than-not adjusting for the health/etc factors would be above replacement.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
Jays are absolutely blowing out their bullpen. Read an article today that stated Osuna's usage at age 21 is the highest in the PitchFX era.
Also, Grilli has now allowed 11 ER in his last 12 games (9.2 IP), going 0-for-2 in save opportunities with a 10.24 ERA.
AND Benoit is out with a torn calf from a stupid brawl they initiated.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
Rush2112 wrote:Having to fix a mid70s bus while on a road trip? No way!
Also, pisses me off they had the fiddle tunes or the beautiful sound of that engine.
I had a '75 VW bus. Learned a lot about fixing cars, sometimes on the fly, from driving that thing around northern California and cross country. So I dug that segment of the video.
I spent many a night in that vehicle, both on trips and when homeless. So it was cool to see a wealthy baseball player do the same. However, it is a bit different if you can pay your way out of trouble spots. There's a certain place in the pit of my stomach that is reserved for hearing a piston ring fail at 2 in the morning when driving through Winters with $50 to my name and 200 miles from home.
Loved the tremendous shots of the Cali and Oregon coasts in winter. There were some tough times. But fond memories.
Last edited by DC47 on Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
DC47 wrote:There's a certain place in the pit of my stomach that is reserved for hearing a piston ring fail at 2 in the morning when driving through Winters…
Should've called me, just 10 miles up County Road 31 from Davis.
Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.
Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
Give me your phone number in 1978 so I can do just that after I make the final tweaks on the old time machine here in the barn. We can catch a Tower of Power show while we're at it. Maybe with Norton Buffalo opening.
The umpiring crew just allowed Carpenter to score the winning run from first to end the Cardinals-Reds game on what was a clear ground rule double. Unless Cincy is able to successfully protest, that could have huge postseason implications for the Giants.
I forgot to chime in this afternoon. I wouldn't be concerned about the Giants, if I was a Cubs fan, or otherwise. And this is not a reverse-hex attempt (not that I am above such shenanigans), they just ain't got it this year.
Missed the finish of the Cards, watching hockey. Which had its own weird finish.
Who knows? Maybe, you were kidnapped, tied up, taken away and held for ransom.
Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago
Oh yeah…
Joe K wrote:The umpiring crew just allowed Carpenter to score the winning run from first to end the Cardinals-Reds game on what was a clear ground rule double. Unless Cincy is able to successfully protest, that could have huge postseason implications for the Giants.
Delighted. Still trying to get Reds to a top 3 pick and, most importantly, extra money for signing picks. Umpire incompetence rules.
Also, Os trying to come off the mat, led by Ubaldo Jiminez. Because, of course.
tennbengal wrote:Delighted. Still trying to get Reds to a top 3 pick and, most importantly, extra money for signing picks. Umpire incompetence rules.
I said the same on twitter. I don't think Price is saavy enough to think that way, but Cincinnati should have wanted to lose that game as much as St. Louis wanted to win it. Something like the #2 - #7 picks are all inside of a very small group and completely up in the air and ... lets say the 1 in 1,000 shot of "Price appeals, wins, game continues, Votto tears his leg off" happens? Its extremely unlikely, but still higher odds than a win doing them any good.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
tennbengal wrote:Delighted. Still trying to get Reds to a top 3 pick and, most importantly, extra money for signing picks. Umpire incompetence rules.
I said the same on twitter. I don't think Price is saavy enough to think that way, but Cincinnati should have wanted to lose that game as much as St. Louis wanted to win it. Something like the #2 - #7 picks are all inside of a very small group and completely up in the air and ... lets say the 1 in 1,000 shot of "Price appeals, wins, game continues, Votto tears his leg off" happens? Its extremely unlikely, but still higher odds than a win doing them any good.
This is the most implausible fucking thing I've ever read (votto had already been removed with an injury).
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
