September Baseball Thread

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:04 am

Oh. Then I guess the joke is you legitimately don't have anyone else worth worrying about.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:38 am

mister d wrote:But "the book" involves listening to your gut which is pretty haphazard. And I think "the book" is sub-zero as well. Statistical optimization would be replacement level, more-often-successfully-than-not adjusting for the health/etc factors would be above replacement.

I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).

vandwagon · Post by **vandwagon** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:23 am

tennbengal wrote:Also, Os trying to come off the mat, led by Ubaldo Jiminez. Because, of course.

I treat his good outings like players treat no hitters in the dugout. I don't talk about how well he's pitching and I try not to even think about how well he's pitching.

In 5 September starts he's sporting a 0.83 WHIP. It's wild.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:38 am

DSafetyGuy wrote:I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).

But that's not really replacement level, its status quo. The best managers aren't managers in the same way the best players are major leaguers; the 3rd best manager in major league baseball in 2018 might be coaching 3B in AA right now and a free hire.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:03 am

vandwagon wrote:
tennbengal wrote:Also, Os trying to come off the mat, led by Ubaldo Jiminez. Because, of course.
I treat his good outings like players treat no hitters in the dugout. I don't talk about how well he's pitching and I try not to even think about how well he's pitching.

In 5 September starts he's sporting a 0.83 WHIP. It's wild.

I have decided that we all may be on a shared acid trip this fall. Ubaldo with that pitching line fits my thesis.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:39 pm

mister d wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).
But that's not really replacement level, its status quo. The best managers aren't managers in the same way the best players are major leaguers; the 3rd best manager in major league baseball in 2018 might be coaching 3B in AA right now and a free hire.

We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.

Post by **brian** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:45 pm

Can we at least all agree Ausmus is below replacement-level?

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:46 pm

brian wrote:Can we at least all agree Ausmus is below replacement-level?

Keith Law's chat this week:

Just fire him. This isn’t a solitary error in judgment. It’s a pattern of ignorance.

The context of Q&A is irrelevant.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:55 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote:We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.

But we assume there are 30 people in the world who could both relate to baseball players and implement a statistically optimized game plan, right? Therefore, most managers live below replacement level.

(This is now making me think about the concept of replacement level in the lead up to 1947 when there were superstar players eligible for the major leagues but not playing due to nothing other than choice.)

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:58 pm

mister d wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.
But we assume there are 30 people in the world who could both relate to baseball players and implement a statistically optimized game plan, right? Therefore, most managers live below replacement level.

(This is now making me think about the concept of replacement level in the lead up to 1947 when there were superstar players eligible for the major leagues but not playing due to nothing other than choice.)

I was going to say someone said that upthread, but it was you.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:04 pm

Strength: Day to day consistency
Weakness: Repetitiveness

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:23 pm

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:13 pm

Retain like they're keeping him or retain like he's retaining effective immediately?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:26 pm

Was he really that bad? His bullpen was terrible.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:56 pm

A_B wrote:Was he really that bad? His bullpen was terrible.

Yes. He was a pitching coach from 2001-14, those last five with the Reds. His area of expertise was the worst aspect of the team. He's 206-271 as Manager. This is approaching Dolan-Thomas level of bizarre loyalty.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:04 pm

I can stick my hand up a butchers ass and check A t bone but if you trade away your best relief pitcher you can't see how good the porterhouse is!

Post by **brian** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:09 pm

You're both right. Cincinnati sucks and it's not necessarily fair to judge him based on that. Yet at the end of the day you gotta figure out a way to win some games.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:00 pm

8IP 3H 0R 1BB 6Ks. Ty Blach, keeping hope alive.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:53 pm

howard wrote:8IP 3H 0R 1BB 6Ks. Ty Blach, keeping hope alive.

a new Giants post season pitcher? you don't say!

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:09 pm

I don't think he will be on the roster. Only one game anyway. #Syndergaard. He'll have to wait until 2018.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:16 pm

you have #MadBaum! in the wildcard game

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:23 pm

Who wants the AL wildcard?

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:33 am

howard wrote:I don't think he will be on the roster. Only one game anyway. #Syndergaard. He'll have to wait until 2018.

That's probably right, even if they get by the Mets. The Dodgers are terrible against left handed starters, which is why Bochy made the decision to go with Blach. I'd think he'll stick with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore if they get the 2nd wildcard and get past the Mets. It's crazy how well Lugo and Gsellman have done for the Mets. I don't think anyone could have realistically expected that out of either guy, especially if you look at their AAA stats. I know Las Vegas is a tough place to pitch, but there's still no way you would tab either guy for putting up a sub-3.00 ERA in the pennant stretch run.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:59 am

Yes, these fill-in Mets starters have been fantastic. Bochy has some tough choices for his bullpen roster, and Blach as a long relief/emergency starter doesn't make sense when he has Cain, Peavy and Alberto Suarez.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:07 am

The only thing more exciting than these wild card races is my fantasy baseball league's final day! Who wants to hear all the details???

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:31 pm

Vin's last game. I was born in Los Angeles, and a Dodgers fan for the first part of my life. I fell in love with baseball listening to Vin. Xmas 1964 Santa brought me a transistor radio; I would put it under my pillow and fall asleep listening to Vin call Dodger games. Amazing he is still going so late in both our lives.

Hearing him describe how he was a Giants fan when he was a kid, and how Willie Mays was both the best player he ever saw and his favorite player, getting kinda dusty. So cool he is ending his run in SF today.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:03 pm

Not having Vin, solo, calling atleast one national Dodgers game this postseason is such a massive failure.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:57 pm

mister d wrote:The only thing more exciting than these wild card races is my fantasy baseball league's final day! Who wants to hear all the details???

I would have been a lot more annoyed by all the Ortiz tributes and lack of skepticism about his historically great final season if not for the fact that he led my fantasy team to the title this year. #ThankYouPapi

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:10 pm

Despite the best attempts of the Nationals (trying to get Scherzer his 20th at the expense of my rate stats) and Tyler Fucking Thornberg, my expansion team took it this year. Thank you to everyone who cared.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:11 pm

And Scully's "I've said enough for a lifetime" ... JFC. The guy had years to pick the perfect line and actually did it.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:57 pm

Giants get in. So congrats on winning the Workd Series again, Doc and SanCarlos.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:04 pm

mister d wrote:Despite the best attempts of the Nationals (trying to get Scherzer his 20th at the expense of my rate stats) and Tyler Fucking Thornberg, my expansion team took it this year. Thank you to everyone who cared.

For some reason, the commissioner of my league had the season end last Sunday. So I was unaware that Thornburg imploded this week. He was awesome for me after I scooped him up at the end of July.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:55 am

Buck's weird (was he throwing the game?) handling of Miley in the 7th on Saturday cost the Os hosting the wild card game.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:47 am

If any manager would manipulate the game versus following the "WINNERS WIN" mentality, its probably Showalter.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:55 am

So DJ LeMahieu channeled his inner '86 Wade Boggs to bat as little as possible to preserve his NL, Coors Field-enabled batting title over the injured Daniel Murphy.

Neat.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:11 am

Who's your favorite Top 10 WAR finisher?

Mine's either Ed Whitson, Dontrelle Willis, or Bernard Gilkey

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:11 am

Its funny how it violates both the competitive nature aspect of baseball and the personal stats don't matter aspect of baseball yet its considered perfectly fine by pretty much everyone but fans of the other hitter.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:17 am

mister d wrote:Its funny how it violates both the competitive nature aspect of baseball and the personal stats don't matter aspect of baseball yet its considered perfectly fine by pretty much everyone but fans of the other hitter.

What's not lost in the noise of his lack of testicular fortitude is how 9 of the past 19 NL batting champions played 81 games at Coors Field.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:19 am

A lot easier to hit when breaking stuff can't spin.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:21 am

mister d wrote:A lot easier to hit when breaking stuff can't spin.

Yeah, the first draft of Major league where the team was based in Colorado didn't make sense.

(FOR A FUCKING NUMBER OF REASONS YOU DOUCHEBAGS!)