Hurricane Irma

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:10 am

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:12 am

Odds are that is a fish storm, despite the hype. Could definitely hit the US, but more likely than not is that it misses. Crazy how much attention 10+ day model runs are getting from the general public. I see crazy solutions at that range in the models all the time...

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:52 am

This one reminds me of Ike and Andrew with it's track

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:59 am

175 mph sustained winds around eye at most recent update. Yikes. It won't hold that intensity to a potential mainland US landfall, but, good lord. I would for damn sure hate to be on one of the islands it first reaches at near that strength.

Also, SL, if this were to really approach Florida from the south up to through the keys, you would probably not want to ride it out...

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:00 am

SL is out living the dream in Europe, although I'd guess he'll probably be back in time for this fun. Really wish this fucker would do a nice U-turn like the early models had it doing.

Baloney · Post by **Baloney** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:30 am

govmentchedda wrote:SL is out living the dream in Europe, although I'd guess he'll probably be back in time for this fun. Really wish this fucker would do a nice U-turn like the early models had it doing.

Was talking to a guy from the Coast Guard Station at Clearwater/St Pete Airport last afternoon and he told me their latest intelligence was landfall near Maimi and moving up between Tampa and Orlando.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:40 am

Baloney wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:SL is out living the dream in Europe, although I'd guess he'll probably be back in time for this fun. Really wish this fucker would do a nice U-turn like the early models had it doing.

Was talking to a guy from the Coast Guard Station at Clearwater/St Pete Airport last afternoon and he told me their latest intelligence was landfall near Maimi and moving up between Tampa and Orlando.

Lovely. Should make for a fun weekend.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:07 am

Yeah, I'm back, just in time to die in this hurricane. I'll determine my plan of action as the weekend approaches and the track becomes clearer.

Post by **Shirley** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:57 am

Sorry to the Florida guys, but I'm happy the center of the models isn't pointing directly at my condo like it was a couple of days ago. We may still get it, but not as an initial landfall anymore. Man, I hope it's not a Cat 5 or even 4 when/if it hits land - Florida or otherwise.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:15 am

So...it's all about guidance from the models at this point (you all probably know that). The American main model (the GFS) and its members run four times a day. The Euro and its ensemble members run two times a day (roughly 1:00 pm/am). What everyone potentially affected should be watching for now are small shifts in the storm now, which can lead to large shifts down the road. And comparing prior runs of the models to their previous runs can yield clues on which side of the guidance envelope the storm may be trending. This guy (a met) on twitter is a great follow, and he's got a simple diagram of what all is still on the table:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 7049568256

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:19 am

Basically, anyone from our Tampa friends on the gulf side, down to SL in Miami area, and then up to the NC and mid-atlantic posters to New Jersey should all still be watching this. For the Miami folks, it is urgent that this turn or miss. An approach from the south of category 4, say, would push so much water and wind there that I can't really comprehend the problems that would come from that. Same issue if it were to come up on Tampa crawling along the west coast.

I am still holding out hope for a turn to the north short of Florida and then getting kicked off coast by an approaching trough late this weekend into early next week. Problem with missing Florida is, if the trough doesn't kick it, then the Carolinas up through the mid-atlantic states are at risk.

It's a brutally beautiful storm. Now 180 mph. You really can't find a more perfect hurricane structure than that one is at the moment...of note, there are papers out there showing that the stronger a hurricane, the more of a poleward "pull" there is on it, so, perhaps the crazy strength of this will draw it north earlier in time and help Miami miss...dunno. Other problem is, if it comes close enough, you won't need a landfall for terrible winds and surge. The hurricane force winds extend out about 45 miles from center and tropical storm force winds 170 miles from center, so...Florida going to a state of emergency yesterday was entirely appropriate.

For my money, I would guess it comes hella close to Florida/Miami area and brushes past heading north and that the Carolinas, particularly Charleston area are at significant risk. But it would not take much at all to put that into Miami proper.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:31 am

tennbengal wrote:Basically, anyone from our Tampa friends on the gulf side, down to SL in Miami area, and then up to the NC and mid-atlantic posters to New Jersey should all still be watching this. For the Miami folks, it is urgent that this turn or miss. An approach from the south of category 4, say, would push so much water and wind there that I can't really comprehend the problems that would come from that. Same issue if it were to come up on Tampa crawling along the west coast.

I am still holding out hope for a turn to the north short of Florida and then getting kicked off coast by an approaching trough late this weekend into early next week. Problem with missing Florida is, if the trough doesn't kick it, then the Carolinas up through the mid-atlantic states are at risk.

It's a brutally beautiful storm. Now 180 mph. You really can't find a more perfect hurricane structure than that one is at the moment...of note, there are papers out there showing that the stronger a hurricane, the more of a poleward "pull" there is on it, so, perhaps the crazy strength of this will draw it north earlier in time and help Miami miss...dunno. Other problem is, if it comes close enough, you won't need a landfall for terrible winds and surge. The hurricane force winds extend out about 45 miles from center and tropical storm force winds 170 miles from center, so...Florida going to a state of emergency yesterday was entirely appropriate.

For my money, I would guess it comes hella close to Florida/Miami area and brushes past heading north and that the Carolinas, particularly Charleston area are at significant risk. But it would not take much at all to put that into Miami proper.

Seems like that's what I've seen in the Euro model. We will definitely be getting the fuck out of dodge as it gets closer, unless it really turns. We're in flood zone A or B (A being lowest). In laws are in boring ass Brandon, about 30 miles inland, away from any type of flood zone, thankfully. The FIL loves craft beer, also thankfully.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:40 pm

Little more convergence on going up the Gulf Coast? Not fun to think of "way worse than Charley" for some of those places.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:52 pm

Charley spared Tampa by cutting inland around Charlotte Harbor, and not having bands just pump water up from the south into Tampa Bay. From what I understand, a storm that moves north, but stays just off the west coast of Florida is my worst case scenario.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:54 pm

govmentchedda wrote:Charley spared Tampa by cutting inland around Charlotte Harbor, and not having bands just pump water up from the south into Tampa Bay. From what I understand, a storm that moves north, but stays just off the west coast of Florida is my worst case scenario.

Yup, east side is the dirty side. That's why Corpus was relatively unscathed during Harvey even though it made landfall like 45 miles away.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:20 pm

GFS was east - near Miami landfall (and no Cuba interaction) but not techinically on land, then up to a landfall near Georgia/SC border. Would probably change Hilton Head for a long time.

Canadian (CMC), UKMET, and Euro all landfall in Cuba, Euro keeping it there 24 hours on that run. That scenario would help a ton, because the eye over land that long would weaken the storm. Would totally suck for Cuba. The Euro brings it back north but the time over Cuba helps drop it down to "only" a Cat 1 or 2 per that model run over the keys and then up for a landfall near Naples. Would bring a lot of rain to Tampa and Orlando in that run.

All of that is to say, not sure we have reached much consensus yet. I would say the envelope is panhandle of Florida over to Wilmington, NC for potential US landfalls, and strength dependent on IF it hangs out over Cuba or not. The non-Cuba scenarios seem more in line with a Miami to Wilmington window of threats. The Cuba scenarios put the west coast of Florida in more of a target.

Loosely.

Post by **brian** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:32 pm

Almost all of the scenarios appear to have Turks AND Caicos coming in for a right fucking.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:07 pm

12z is the most recent run - the second image in the below graphic (Euro runs):

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/905159259192741889

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:21 pm

When do we change the site name to stormsfrog.net?

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:23 pm

Let me ask this kind of pedestrian question given all the highfalutin and fancy talk of models and whatnot:

I seem to recall seeing pictures this summer of Miami's streets flooded as the result of fairly routine thunderstorms. My recollection is that this was being attributed to rising ocean levels, and I kind of dismissed it as a bit hyperbolic.

Anyone have some local knowledge to share? Is this akin to that picture of the shark that shows up after every hurricane and ensuing flooded streets? Or is there something to the fact that Miami is already on the edge regarding its capacity to absorb even typical thunderstorms at this point?

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:45 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:Let me ask this kind of pedestrian question given all the highfalutin and fancy talk of models and whatnot:

I seem to recall seeing pictures this summer of Miami's streets flooded as the result of fairly routine thunderstorms. My recollection is that this was being attributed to rising ocean levels, and I kind of dismissed it as a bit hyperbolic.

Anyone have some local knowledge to share? Is this akin to that picture of the shark that shows up after every hurricane and ensuing flooded streets? Or is there something to the fact that Miami is already on the edge regarding its capacity to absorb even typical thunderstorms at this point?

Can't speak for Miami, but Tampa's got old sewer issues that could be quite problematic in the next week or so.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:14 pm

Every time it rains heavily, roads flood. And this is in Naples. Miami is worse (and the entire area, not just MIA itself). Parking lots and certain roads can be almost kneedeep by a heavy half hour storm. All of the drains in these areas get backed up pretty quickly.

Just a month ago I was heading to the beach and had to turn around twice and take a different road because the streets were flooded to an unknown depth. And this was just a run of the mill rainstorm.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:15 pm

I tried to take a picture a few weeks ago but was too late, but there was a turtle swimming in a large pool of water in a grass gully up at the front of my street after heavy rain. He saw me though and swam back into the sewer.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:52 am

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 3924981762

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:53 am

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 3643780098

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:56 am

I the wider part of the cone, the more uncertainty (note, when he says "They" he is referring to the National Hurricane Center "NHC" who are the ones who develop and put out the cones and watch/warnings for tropical systems for the US and the basin). They are located in Miami and have already ordered pallets of water and MREs for their staff should this come over their location so they can keep working...

I don't think west side of the cone is likely at this point, it's either up into southern Florida or scrapes by Florida on its way to South Carolina is my best guess. I keep hoping for out to sea (OTS) solution, but that feels unlikely to me as well. Either Miami or Charleston seems like the likely landing spots if a US landfall. Wilmington next, then OTS as next possibility. A crawl up the west side of Florida into that region least likely in my view at this point, but not off the table. Good news if that last one plays out, we will have a little more warning, because it would have to resume a westerly movement toward Cuba which would delay it in time a bit. If the south Florida scenario pans out, they may be in tropical storm conditions as early as Saturday (depending on how wide the wind field is by that point)...

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:15 am

DSafetyGuy wrote:When do we change the site name to stormsfrog.net?

HURRICANE PEPE SYLVIA

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYriXnwgQOw/

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:17 am

I guess that's funny...but maybe come down on the side of it's fuckin' incredible that we can get this close to knowing the general path of a storm like that 8 days out. Also, try making decisions on evacuating millions when a slight jog takes the storm 25 miles off the coast of Florida moving north as opposed to straight onto the peninsula.

In any event, no worries, I'll stop posting in the discussion of it.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:28 am

tennbengal wrote:In any event, no worries, I'll stop posting in the discussion of it.

Don't let the memes drag you down (I don't think that was a personal shot). Keep it up!

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:35 am

No, I think it's pretty straightforward. Take this, from a long time ago...

Ryan wrote:Little more convergence on going up the Gulf Coast?

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:25 am

Well, I successfully talked my mom and dad to drive up to Maryland for a long weekend. They live on the 7th hole of a golf course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:30 am

Nice work. PBG is looking like it's going to get slammed. Oiler lives in Jupiter now, and he's headed to Tampa to ride it out.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:51 am

EnochRoot wrote:... Palm Beach Gardens

♫ Cuz that's my apartment...dawwwg.♫

Every time.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:54 am

govmentchedda wrote:Nice work. PBG is looking like it's going to get slammed. Oiler lives in Jupiter now, and he's headed to Tampa to ride it out.

Actually my dad said he had been considering going over to my brother's place in Tampa (freakin Brandon (loathe that place for the soul-sapping it's done on my little bro)), but he opted against it in the event the cone shifts left. He rightly arrived at the conclusion that it's best to drive out of state for a few days.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:09 am

EnochRoot wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:Nice work. PBG is looking like it's going to get slammed. Oiler lives in Jupiter now, and he's headed to Tampa to ride it out.

Actually my dad said he had been considering going over to my brother's place in Tampa (freakin Brandon (loathe that place for the soul-sapping it's done on my little bro)), but he opted against it in the event the cone shifts left. He rightly arrived at the conclusion that it's best to drive out of state for a few days.

We'll evacuate to the in laws in Brandon. It takes a small piece of my soul every time I venture east of 75. We try not to stay long. My parents are taking my 98 year old grandmother to Birmingham. She's afraid of her own shadow at this point, so that's probably best.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:21 am

I'm laughing.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:06 am

By the looks of that map, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington are gonna have to gear up.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:16 am

Waiting for one of these evangelists to tell us that Hurricane Irma is God's judgement on Mar-a-Lago.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:31 am

HaulCitgo wrote:By the looks of that map, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington are gonna have to gear up.

Guess whose condo is about 50 miles NE of Wilmington? Hopefully scraping along Florida will really weaken this bitch.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:37 am

Everything over the last year and a half will be worth it if the hurricane somehow tightens into a tiny band and just sits on top of Mar-A-Lago.