Hurricane Irma

howard · Post by **howard** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:42 pm

Irma is interacting with Cuba more than anticipated, the eye may be making landfall now (2230 edt). The models and uncertainty cone may be significantly adjusted over the next several hours. And the intensity may decrease (good for the US, not so good for Cuba, but the region the eye is hitting is not very populous, a few smaller cities.)

Or not, I don't know that much about this stuff, but it sure is fascinating.

duff · Post by **duff** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:56 pm

If only bengal was around to explain it all to us. But he got a stick up his ass and ran home with his ball.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:06 pm

This bitch is moving west, if you want my opinion.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:11 pm

Gunpowder wrote:I don't think Naples has ever taken a direct shot from a major cane

Ha ha bro you know I don't believe that!!!

howard · Post by **howard** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:13 pm

heading is 280˚at the 2300 NHC report (270˚ is due west), at 13mph, so sure you right Rex!

eta: NHC 2300 report link http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0258.shtml

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:19 pm

Got me thinking I may head inland now.

howard · Post by **howard** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:33 pm

new cone diagram is out. Keys and Fort Myers in the bulleye now, Miami at the eastern edge (but if it tracks close to the center of the cone, Miami will still get a hell of a storm surge, this sucker is so wide.) Subject to change.

you might have much better guidance in the morning.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:29 pm

https://twitter.com/Jordan_Gilbert/stat ... 8184553473

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/906191658559131648

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:33 am

Anyone want to rent our Sanibel timeshare? I'm sure it'll be ready by 2027.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:52 am

duff wrote:If only bengal was around to explain it all to us. But he got a stick up his ass and ran home with his ball.

It's in an awful spot for west coast of Florida. Unless it buries itself in Cuba and shreds out has time to re- strengthen moving north. Miami may end up comparatively spared, but Naples to Tampa is of extreme worry. The ridge of pressure that the models were dealing with north of Bahamas was strong enough to force the storm further west sparing a turn toward Carolinas but emperiling west coast of Florida. Euro has had best handle on this for days now and current run rakes the west side of the state. Anyone in Naples to Tampa area prone to surge should get out.

Still time to hope it shreds itself in Cuba, if that's gonna happen the critical hours are now. I have family and friends in punta gorda, they are in a terrible spot.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:58 am

tennbengal wrote:
duff wrote:If only bengal was around to explain it all to us. But he got a stick up his ass and ran home with his ball.

I've got a trial in two weeks so it's crazy at work and I am never sure how much anyone wants to hear about weather nerd-dom. There's enough information on net now to overwhelm anyone. Didn't want to add to it unnecessarily. There's a tremendous weather forum I could recommend for those interested in learning more.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:42 am

tennbengal wrote:… how much anyone wants to hear about weather nerd-dom.

A lot, speaking for myself. Post when you can, please.

The ratio of good info to noise/trolls on the WeatherUnderground board (Cat 6 section, following updates posted by Masters or Henson) is quite low but the info so good it makes the effort worthwhile. As a dilettante, I only hit that when a major storm threatens the us. What forum you recommend (and if you post at WU, what is your handle? I don't even remember mine, I rarely post.)

Square Rob · Post by **Square Rob** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:18 am

Good luck everyone. We've had FL friends hit us up as a potential landing pad. Wife had a chat with a couple from Tampa yesterday and they said our town was the first with a decent hotel at which they've been able to find vacancy. Birmingham hotels are booked full.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:08 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg

Except, I fear the waiting may not be the hardest part.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:39 am

Where's Ocean Matt these days? Times like this oddly remind me of his completely lopsided arguments with NHA.

It was like the Swamp's own canary in a coal mine for our current weird times.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:53 am

Howard - americanwx.com

Mix of pros and learned amateurs and idiots and trolls but not much tolerance for the latter.

Site broken up into regions - but the tropical forum has the good discussion.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:15 pm

Thanks. Between working with a doc who is a recreational pilot, and listening to Bill Burr talking about learning to fly helicopters, I've lately become more interested in normal weather, as well as my attraction to the big storms.

Post by **brian** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:05 pm

This ain't gonna be good.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:24 pm

Pretty awful scenario from Naples to Tampa. Please be away from surge zones, chedda, oiler, et al.

My good friends I think are digging into punta gorda, I wish they had gotten out.

ETA- they decided to leave. I feel better, although they are pretty sure their house is gonna be fucked.

phxgators · Post by **phxgators** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:02 pm

The in-laws, all of them, decided to head out to Atlanta this morning. Finally came to their senses.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:42 pm

tennbengal wrote:Pretty awful scenario from Naples to Tampa. Please be away from surge zones, chedda, oiler, et al.

My good friends I think are digging into punta gorda, I wish they had gotten out.

ETA- they decided to leave. I feel better, although they are pretty sure their house is gonna be fucked.

"Gunpowder of course can get fucked"

GET TB, TB

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:00 pm

I'm seriously learning more from this dude in short segments than lots of other things:

https://youtu.be/oPhCM0mlz8U

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:13 pm

This dude is fantastic, clear concise simple communication of facts. Maybe it'll catch on (maybe not.)

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:34 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
tennbengal wrote:Pretty awful scenario from Naples to Tampa. Please be away from surge zones, chedda, oiler, et al.

My good friends I think are digging into punta gorda, I wish they had gotten out.

ETA- they decided to leave. I feel better, although they are pretty sure their house is gonna be fucked.

"Gunpowder of course can get fucked"

GET TB, TB

"Et al"

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:39 pm

howard wrote:This dude is fantastic, clear concise simple communication of facts. Maybe it'll catch on (maybe not.)

Give him all the Emmys. ALL.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:36 pm

Re-intensivization is underway, as Irma turns north and breaks away from the Cuban coast. Pressure has fallen from 940mB this morning to 932mb in a special 2100hrs NHC note. Radar imaging indicates a new eye wall reconstruction cycle may be underway (according to the people who seem to know about this stuff.) Key West, you're up.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:50 pm

We left for Jupiter around noon, and had a pretty smooth drive, except for about 4 minutes of an outer band that was rough. Oiler was about an hour or two behind us. We are both safe in Jupiter. Our friends that we are staying with live less than a mile from him. Sounds like all of Sunday will be hurricane-y for us, but then over by wake up Monday. Hoping this avoids our house. It's headed right for it though. Got hurricane shutters up on the first floor windows, hopefully they do the trick.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:16 pm

glad you reached high/inland ground. Best of luck.

TT2.0 · Post by **TT2.0** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:46 pm

stay safe cheds, gpj. hope yall dont take any damage

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:39 pm

Hahahahahaha.

https://gfycat.com/TatteredWealthyIsabellineshrike

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:29 pm

howard wrote:This dude is fantastic, clear concise simple communication of facts. Maybe it'll catch on (maybe not.)

AMS Fellows are no joke.

Had a former meteorologist as my 10th-grade science teacher, seriously thought about going into the field...but too much calculus for me. Do know a number of "met herbs" from my days at Lyndon State. My best buddy here in CO is one of them. He's out of the weather game, but still gets VERY geeky.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:30 am

Gonna be a long, long day. Rain and wind were somewhat noisy through the night, but not horrible. Expecting winds over 60 mph here for the next 12 hours. We will probably be ok. Getting concerned about my house and my city. Tampa is about to get proper fucked.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:53 am

But seriously, stay safe et al.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:26 am

Rush2112 wrote:
howard wrote:This dude is fantastic, clear concise simple communication of facts. Maybe it'll catch on (maybe not.)

AMS Fellows are no joke.

Had a former meteorologist as my 10th-grade science teacher, seriously thought about going into the field...but too much calculus for me. Do know a number of "met herbs" from my days at Lyndon State. My best buddy here in CO is one of them. He's out of the weather game, but still gets VERY geeky.

They're geeking on weather because that's how it presents, but in reality, their hard on is for fluid and thermodynamics.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:38 am

https://twitter.com/Hattiethepirate/sta ... 8037024773

Hope y'all don't have to say this.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:41 am

The reporters still in Miami are insane

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:02 am

Well this reporter just got educated on some things.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BY3Xf0CDhms/

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:11 am

Miami is about 70 miles from the center of this thing. Fucking massive. The west side of South Florida getting it much worse. I can't imagine the toll in Key West (to where a dear friend retired just two months ago) and the more populated areas in the path. Maybe all the way from Naples to Tallahassee.

eta: I think that clip above is from yesterday (Saturday) morning. Cable news is maintaining the usual level of worthlessness.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:23 am

Friend's mother is in Sarasota and didn't leave. Friends in Orlando and Gainesville bunkering up but staying. I get Orland and Gainsville, but friend's mom is worrysome. Naples, Sarasota, and Tampa all look to be in for a world of hurt.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:51 pm

tennbengal wrote:Pretty awful scenario from Naples to Tampa. Please be away from surge zones, chedda, oiler, et al.

My good friends I think are digging into punta gorda, I wish they had gotten out.

ETA- they decided to leave. I feel better, although they are pretty sure their house is gonna be fucked.

I just don't understand the desire to stay. Get your shutters in place, move everything you can to the highest levels, maybe throw sandbags down... But if you are in a surge zone? What the fuck do these people think they're gonna do with 15 foot storm surges and winds up to 125 mph?

Fuck that noise. Find relatives, or just keep driving until you find a place up north. What else you got going on?