NBA Playoffs 2018

[A_B]

To me, the key to the series will be how well Iguodala can handle the guards for Houston. They won't want Curry on either of them, probably choosing to let him check one of the Gordon/Tucker/Ariza/Green as much as possible to keep him away. Curry won't try to guard Capela either, of course, and I expect Draymond to stay relatively close to him while also trying to clog the lane when Paul/Harden drive. Then it comes down to switches, and GS has Durant and Thompson who both have size and/or strength to at least trouble both of those guys.

I think it's a good series that could be anywhere from 5-7 games with either team as the victor.

[brian]

I'm going to approach this series carefully, but I think there's some interesting betting opportunities. To start, I'm going to put some money on GS to win tonight's game even money. If I win, great and I'll take a wait and see approach to game 2. If I lose, I'll probably see what the series line gets reset to and assuming GS is somewhere about -120 to -125 (which is about what I would expect) I might put a bigger bet on GS to win the series at that point.

(Fair warning -- this is what I did for Tampa Bay before Game 2 yesterday and that ticket is looking like a loser at this point, but I'm still feeling like I got great value on TB +120 at that point.)

[Joe K]

I’d consider betting the Game 1 loser to win Game 2 no matter what. Golden State’s mentality against better opposition has typically been to split their road playoff games and win all their home games.

[brian]

I’d consider betting the Game 1 loser to win Game 2 no matter what. Golden State’s mentality against better opposition has typically been to split their road playoff games and win all their home games.

Yeah, I see the logic there. I'm curious to see if there's a market overreaction to a GS loss in Game 1 though. I cleaned up on the Boston-Philly series specifically because the betting markets didn't finally correct until Game 4. My only regret is not taking the Boston ML money I won in Game 1 and just doubling it down in Game 2 instead of just betting the same amount on the ML in Game 2.

Best case scenario for me in this series is probably a GS win in Game 1 and then yeah...I'm going to be inclined to take Houston ML in Game 2 at what will probably be something in the ballpark of +130 or so.

[Shirley]

I never understand fans who seem to get personally insulted when someone - or even everyone - picks against their team. When two teams play, one wins and one loses. Picking one team to lose is not the greatest insult in the world or a massive show of disrespect. This is especially true when the team picked to win is one or two crazy shots away from being the three-time consecutive NBA champs.

[sancarlos]

I fear for TT's blood pressure if the Rockets win. I REALLY fear for TT's blood pressure if the Warriors win!

[Giff]

I never understand fans who seem to get personally insulted when someone - or even everyone - picks against their team. When two teams play, one wins and one loses. Picking one team to lose is not the greatest insult in the world or a massive show of disrespect. This is especially true when the team picked to win is one or two crazy shots away from being the three-time consecutive NBA champs.

I think it's just annoying to watch media coverage of your team acting like it'd be the biggest upset in a decade if your team wins. I mean, if the entire sports media spent the week of March Madness saying there was no way UVA would be UMBC, you wouldn't have been annoyed? Wait, probably not a great example.

[degenerasian]

Or the media never ever ever picks your team, ever.

It's just annoying.

[Giff]

This one has a huge UT/USC 2005 Rose Bowl feeling to it.

[TT2.0]

How about I just give you $200 and you agree not to bring up regular season results again

done

[Joe K]

I never understand fans who seem to get personally insulted when someone - or even everyone - picks against their team. When two teams play, one wins and one loses. Picking one team to lose is not the greatest insult in the world or a massive show of disrespect. This is especially true when the team picked to win is one or two crazy shots away from being the three-time consecutive NBA champs.

I think it's just annoying to watch media coverage of your team acting like it'd be the biggest upset in a decade if your team wins. I mean, if the entire sports media spent the week of March Madness saying there was no way UVA would be UMBC, you wouldn't have been annoyed? Wait, probably not a great example.

I’m almost certain Houston is being given a better chance against the Warriors by both the media and oddsmakers than any other team in the past 2 years. I’m not a Warriors fan at all, but I think they probably have 2 of the 3 best players in the NBA,* the best defender in the NBA, and the 2 best shooters ever. That’s pretty damn formidable and it’s no shame being a +200 underdog to them! Boston or Cleveland would be much bigger underdogs than Houston is.

*Harden will and should win MVP. But I’d be surprised if any NBA GM would take him over Durant or Curry.

[TT2.0]

I never understand fans who seem to get personally insulted when someone - or even everyone - picks against their team. When two teams play, one wins and one loses. Picking one team to lose is not the greatest insult in the world or a massive show of disrespect. This is especially true when the team picked to win is one or two crazy shots away from being the three-time consecutive NBA champs.

I think it's just annoying to watch media coverage of your team acting like it'd be the biggest upset in a decade if your team wins. I mean, if the entire sports media spent the week of March Madness saying there was no way UVA would be UMBC, you wouldn't have been annoyed? Wait, probably not a great example.

I’m almost certain Houston is being given a better chance against the Warriors by both the media and oddsmakers than any other team in the past 2 years. I’m not a Warriors fan at all, but I think they probably have 2 of the 3 best players in the NBA,* the best defender in the NBA, and the 2 best shooters ever. That’s pretty damn formidable and it’s no shame being a +200 underdog to them! Boston or Cleveland would be much bigger underdogs than Houston is.

*Harden will and should win MVP. But I’d be surprised if any NBA GM would take him over Durant or Curry.

i don't think any gm takes him over Durant but I think you can make a case for taking him over Curry. much better on the drive, averages more assists and has consistently done it with much less talent, this year excepted.

[Rex]

Fun 1st quarter, I’ll never understand why the NBA season begins in May though

[Ryan]

Gotta take Curry over Harden because Curry has all his ankle injuries behind him

[Shirley]

I never understand fans who seem to get personally insulted when someone - or even everyone - picks against their team. When two teams play, one wins and one loses. Picking one team to lose is not the greatest insult in the world or a massive show of disrespect. This is especially true when the team picked to win is one or two crazy shots away from being the three-time consecutive NBA champs.

I think it's just annoying to watch media coverage of your team acting like it'd be the biggest upset in a decade if your team wins. I mean, if the entire sports media spent the week of March Madness saying there was no way UVA would be UMBC, you wouldn't have been annoyed? Wait, probably not a great example.

Believe me, I know the frustration of the media saying your team can't win. It started long before the UMBC loss. But if UVA were playing Duke and the media picked Duke to win, I wouldn't be offended.

[Joe K]

So Houston got a very efficient 41 from Harden, 23 from Paul, and lost by 13 at home. The KD Warriors are now 25-3 in the postseason and the odds of anyone giving them a tough playoff series before the salary cap (probably) breaks them up in the 2019 offseason aren’t looking great.

[TT2.0]

turnovers murdered houston tonight. the pressure got to them and carelessness cost them a game. fuck

[Ryan]

Yep, gotta take care of the basketball against the number 2 team in the conference.

[Giff]

Our bench was awful aside from Gordon.

[Joe K]

Seeing some complaints about Houston’s offense last night, which I don’t understand. They had an efficiency rating of 109.4 which, while below their season average, is pretty decent considering the quality of opponent. The problem is that Golden State’s offense is just impossible to stop when they are focused and avoid sloppy turnovers. Durant can get his shot any time he wants to, against any defender, and you can’t double him when Thompson and Curry are on the floor. Durant has yet to have a playoff game with the Warriors where he shot below 40% from the field. For a volume scorer that’s remarkable consistency.

[HaulCitgo]

I like them in this series too but they're not unstoppable. C's held them in the 80s if I recall. You have to commit to defense though and there's one team left that bothers to try and defend. Of course they don't have the offense to keep up but the calvary is on the way! C's can go toe to toe next year.

[Joe K]

I like them in this series too but they're not unstoppable. C's held them in the 80s if I recall. You have to commit to defense though and there's one team left that bothers to try and defend. Of course they don't have the offense to keep up but the calvary is on the way! C's can go toe to toe next year.

Ha. I was just saying to my buddy that next year the Celtics will be the team that everyone tries to convince themselves can beat the Warriors. But they won’t. The NBA media doesn’t want to admit this for obvious reasons, but as soon as KD signed with the Warriors, it killed the competitive balance of the league. There have been dominant teams before, but a 25-3 playoff run is ridiculous. Adam Silver is mad at teams for tanking, but why wouldn’t teams try to tank and rebuild now? As long as the Warriors’ core is intact and healthy they’re as much of a sure thing as any team will ever be. The Celtics have a really bright future, but that’s because they have a young core that should be ready to go once the Warriors finally fall victim to aging or the salary cap. But that’s not happening before 2020 at the earliest.

[HaulCitgo]

Probably right but and definitely right on the Durant impact but they play the style you want to play to win. They can make Durant work and will defend the perimeter. After this run, the kids won't defer next year and I think Kyrie will recognize that and give up shots to be a facilitator and closer. Tatum looks to become the type of talent that can take over games under playoff pressure and Heyward's game is suited to become a 3-4th option. Will they win? Probably not, but they'll take 2 wins in that series. If they're that close they've got at least a punchers chance and would be favorites with an injury.

[DSafetyGuy]

The part of Golden State's strategy last night I found most interesting and effective was the concerted effort to run the Rockets' complementary three-point shooters off the corner three. Forcing players like M'bah Moute, Ariza, and Green off their spots and give them wide-open baseline drive opportunities was very smart. None of those players are good enough as ball handlers or creators (Tucker showed some ability to handle this, possibly because he wouldn't drive as aggressively/hurriedly, but the rest of the guys were generally bad or worse) to finish those drives or make plays when two defenders were able to recover and crash down without fear of being burned by a pass and potential subsequent ball movement.

[DSafetyGuy]

Probably right but and definitely right on the Durant impact but they play the style you want to play to win. They can make Durant work and will defend the perimeter. After this run, the kids won't defer next year and I think Kyrie will recognize that and give up shots to be a facilitator and closer. Tatum looks to become the type of talent that can take over games under playoff pressure and Heyward's game is suited to become a 3-4th option. Will they win? Probably not, but they'll take 2 wins in that series. If they're that close they've got at least a punchers chance and would be favorites with an injury.

After Irving's Cleveland experience, I don't really believe this. I think Boston would be well-served to explore what they can get for Irving this off-season. The team's most important asset is Stevens and having conventional offensive All-Star players is not really necessary with what he has shown he can do from the bench.

Boston was 6-2 when he missed games prior to the season-ending injury (I included a game against Charlotte where Irving played 2 minutes), 9-6 in the regular season after the season-ending injury, and 9-4 in the postseason, including winning f six of their last seven.

Stevens has the kids well ahead of schedule and I think they could flip Irving with his two years and $41.4 remaining this summer for some useful parts and a boatload of picks, especially since he turns 27 less than a month before next season ends. Replenish the future draft assets and continue building to miss the end of the Golden State dynasty.

[brian]

Probably right but and definitely right on the Durant impact but they play the style you want to play to win. They can make Durant work and will defend the perimeter. After this run, the kids won't defer next year and I think Kyrie will recognize that and give up shots to be a facilitator and closer. Tatum looks to become the type of talent that can take over games under playoff pressure and Heyward's game is suited to become a 3-4th option. Will they win? Probably not, but they'll take 2 wins in that series. If they're that close they've got at least a punchers chance and would be favorites with an injury.

After Irving's Cleveland experience, I don't really believe this. I think Boston would be well-served to explore what they can get for Irving this off-season. The team's most important asset is Stevens and having conventional offensive All-Star players is not really necessary with what he has shown he can do from the bench.

Boston was 6-2 when he missed games prior to the season-ending injury (I included a game against Charlotte where Irving played 2 minutes), 9-6 in the regular season after the season-ending injury, and 9-4 in the postseason, including winning f six of their last seven.

Stevens has the kids well ahead of schedule and I think they could flip Irving with his two years and $41.4 remaining this summer for some useful parts and a boatload of picks, especially since he turns 27 less than a month before next season ends. Replenish the future draft assets and continue building to miss the end of the Golden State dynasty.

I'm not a huge NBA fan, but this makes a lot of sense to me. Some desperate GM would probably overpay (or at least give fair value) for Irving.

[Joe K]

Irving is tremendous at scoring against tough defense, which is a valuable postseason skill. Cleveland would have never won the 2016 Finals without his great offensive performances in Games 5-7. But he doesn’t have the all-around value of the game’s truly elite stars. I’d also be worried about his injury history going forward. Not sure how a guy who relies on supernatural ball handling and finishing skills will age when he’s already had multiple major knee surgeries.

[HaulCitgo]

No way you trade a big time A level scorer at his age. Just makes no sense to me. He very well may resist not being the singular offensive focus but thats Stevens problem. They need to extend him, forget a trade. As for the knee, dont think he is some next level athlete thats finishing over guys at the rim so im less worried. More of a drop dead shooter with great handle and body control to get position on guys and then hes crafty around the rim.

[brian]

[A_B]

Lebron is concussed

[Johnnie]

That NBA Lottery show was one cringeworthy segment after another. The dude just rearranging possible draftees for the Cavs on the TV. Cassidy Hubbarth furiously flipping through notes. The intros of each representative for each team. The double seated desk for the Celtics and 76ers. A commercial break after the 10th pick. Everything was awkward.

But it was better than the Cavs tonight.

[Giff]

Lebron is concussed

On a call that was mercilessly booed.

[Ryan]

For posterity, I'm apparently the rare NBA fan who thinks a home team winning games 1 and 2 at home against the most dangerous player in the league does not mean the series is already over. I'm encouraged that the C's actually had a better record on the road this year, but this can be 2-2 in the blink of an eye* even if half the Cavs keep no-showing. That's just life in THE National Basketball Association.

*A blink that takes 4 goddamn days to start

[Joe K]

For posterity, I'm apparently the rare NBA fan who thinks a home team winning games 1 and 2 at home against the most dangerous player in the league does not mean the series is already over. I'm encouraged that the C's actually had a better record on the road this year, but this can be 2-2 in the blink of an eye* even if half the Cavs keep no-showing. That's just life in THE National Basketball Association.

*A blink that takes 4 goddamn days to start

I agree with this. Especially since Boston is 1-4 on the road this postseason.

ETA: Also, to paraphrase my Celtics fan co-worker’s response when I told her the C’s have never lost a series when up 2-0: “I’d imagine there are lots of things that never happened before until LeBron did it.”

[A_B]

Lebron is concussed

On a call that was mercilessly booed.

The Cavs got outscored 71-48 after that play (Which was in no way intentional, either). I'm not meaning to take credit away from them, though, Celts made shots and defended great down the stretch, so the two aren't necessarily related.

[A_B]

I also don't understand the 4 day gap at all.

[Ryan]

The arena doesn't even have anything non-NBA scheduled until the day after game 4

HALL & OATES AND TRAIN!

[Rams Fanny]

Pretty sure this has to do with GSW arena availability. Pink is there fri/sat meaning game 3 there can't be played until sun. They don't like it when a CF series is two+ games ahead of the other if it can be avoided.

[Rex]

Finally a good tweet.

[TT2.0]

one of the best first halves the rockets have played all year. hopefully they can hold it together and make a series out of this