ESPN Insider Access

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wlu_lax6
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by wlu_lax6 »

I was actually wondering if ESPN the Mag was still a thing (has not been in an airport magazine stand in a bit). I have noticed SI was writing about 30 for 30 a bunch recently. Figured it is only time until we see some SI/ESPN deal. Just sounds like something investment bankers would pitch to media companies that are trying to figure out what to do.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:Many thanks, Chedda.
You're welcome.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Is having 6 of the Top 16 good?
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by sancarlos »

So, DeShaun Watson doesn't make the first round? I guess I misunderstood or was misinformed as far as his status as a prospect.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Can someone help a Sabo out again?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_ ... needy-team

Thanks in advance.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by govmentchedda »

Want to play some quarterback musical chairs?

I've looked into my crystal ball to come up with some projections on starting quarterbacks for 2017. These aren't projections for the starting jobs that will have mainstays back again. Everyone knows Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees will be starters, for instance. No, these are projections for the jobs in which I think there will be a new starter, or jobs that could have a new starter.

Here we go, leading off with Buffalo, Chicago and Cleveland:

New starters in 2017


Buffalo Bills

Projected 2017 starter: Mike Glennon

EDITOR'S PICKS

How the Texans could move on from Brock Osweiler
The Texans could try to move on after the season from Brock Osweiler, who was benched on Sunday, but his release would create major issues.

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I'm projecting the Bills to move on from Tyrod Taylor because I don't think they see him as an $18 million-a-year franchise quarterback. They could get out of his contract after the season for a small cap hit. Taylor is 14-13 as a starter in his career, and he hasn't gotten an endorsement from the front office or Rex Ryan, who might be out after the season. Taylor's completion percentage has dropped from 63.7 percent to 60.6, and his yards per attempt are down from 8.0 to 6.8.


If Buffalo moves on, it could turn to Glennon, the former third-round pick who has started 18 games for the Buccaneers and is a free agent after the season. Glennon will be one of the top signal-callers on a weak free-agent market. This could also be a potential landing spot for Colin Kaepernick, but that would likely be on a short-term deal. I think the Bills will draft a quarterback in the middle of the first round, but the top QB prospects don't have much starting experience and will need time to develop.


Chicago Bears

Projected 2017 starter: Tony Romo

The Bears will likely part ways with Jay Cutler, and I've said for more than a month that they need to use their second-round pick to draft a quarterback and try to groom him for the future. They could also make a call to New England for Jimmy Garoppolo, offering an Alex Smith type of deal -- a 2017 No. 2 and a 2018 No. 3 that could become a No. 2. If that doesn't work, the Bears should sign Tony Romo, who could be released by the Cowboys as a post-June 1 release, which would eat up only $10.7 million of their 2017 cap.

For this to work, John Fox has to stay as coach. Romo might prefer to stay as a backup in Dallas rather than going to a rebuilding team with some coordinator taking his first chance as a head coach. Fox could sell Romo on the idea that the Bears are one draft away from being decent on defense. Then, in the second round in April, the Bears could pick a quarterback of the future while having Romo as their starter for the present.


Cleveland Browns

Projected 2017 starter: Jimmy Garoppolo

Let the bidding begin. Some wonder whether coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots would keep Garoppolo to be the backup for the final year of his contract in 2017 and beyond to potentially be the future of the franchise. Please. Tom Brady wants to play five more years, and the Patriots could get something in a trade this offseason for Garoppolo, who played well during Brady's suspension earlier this season. Garoppolo would likely cost the Patriots a lot of money past 2017, and New England likely couldn't afford both him and Brady.

The Browns have two things going for them: They have extra draft picks -- including the Eagles' first-round pick, which could be in the top 10 -- and they have a good trading relationship with Belichick from the Jamie Collins trade earlier this season.


Jimmy Garoppolo completed 70 percent of his passes and had four touchdowns and no interceptions while filling in for Tom Brady earlier this season. Tim Bradbury/Getty Images
To get Garoppolo, the Browns could offer a second-round pick and another second- or third-round pick in 2018, then draft a defender with their first pick, which could be No. 1 overall. If the bidding gets intense, the Browns could offer the Eagles' first-rounder to get their quarterback.

You might be wondering why the Browns don't just draft a QB with one of their first-round picks. Well, as ESPN draft analysts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have said, this class isn't expected to have a QB worth a top-10 pick. So by trading for Garoppolo, who's only 25, Cleveland would add a talented signal-caller who already has NFL experience.


New York Jets

Projected 2017 starter: Jay Cutler

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith will be free agents after the season, and they aren't likely to return, unless it's at a cut price as a backup. That leaves recent draft picks Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, but I don't think either is likely to start for the Jets in 2017.

That means the Jets need a veteran signal-caller to protect themselves, and Cutler makes sense. New York could buy some time to develop a long-term answer, whether that's Petty, Hackenberg or a QB from the 2017 draft, while Cutler gets a another chance to prove himself.


San Francisco 49ers

Projected 2017 starter: Tyrod Taylor and Nick Foles

If Taylor leaves Buffalo, where could he go? One option is San Francisco, where Chip Kelly is expected to continue as the coach for a second season, even if the 49ers fire general manager Trent Baalke. Kelly likes Kaepernick, who likely will void his contract after the season, so there's a chance he could come back at the right price. But I think Taylor makes sense for Kelly and the 49ers as a quarterback with running ability whom Kelly can try to build his offense around.

Kelly could also bring in Foles, who will almost certainly be released by the Chiefs because he's owed $10.7 million. That's far too expensive for a backup. Foles would be solid insurance for the 49ers in case Taylor doesn't work out. Under Kelly in 2013, Foles had an incredible 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions with the Eagles.

Same starters in 2017


Arizona Cardinals

Projected 2017 starter: Carson Palmer

General manager Steve Keim has said that he wants back Palmer, who turns 37 this month, and Larry Fitzgerald in 2017. Although the Cardinals would like to take one more run with Palmer, they have to find a quarterback for the future. I expect them to draft a quarterback in the first three rounds in April.


Dallas Cowboys

Projected 2017 starter: Dak Prescott

Prescott is the present and future of the Cowboys. Still, Romo could return as a backup if he can't find a starting job that appeals to him. For that to happen, he would have to take a big pay cut.


Denver Broncos

Projected 2017 starter: Trevor Siemian

The Broncos invested a first-round pick in Paxton Lynch in the 2016 draft, but he wasn't ready to beat out Siemian this season, and he probably won't be able to do it next year. He was raw coming out of Memphis.

Siemian has been a good leader. He has a good arm, and he works well with coach Gary Kubiak. Lynch could still be the quarterback of the future, but that likely won't come until 2018.


Brock Osweiler, who was benched in Sunday's loss to the Jaguars, has thrown 14 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions this season. Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans

Projected 2017 starter: Brock Osweiler

Osweiler was benched Sunday, but it's going to be tough for the Texans to move on after this season, as I explained here. The short version: He'd cost too much against the 2017 salary cap, and the earliest they'd likely move on is before the 2018 season, when releasing him wouldn't hurt their cap.

So I think the Texans stick with Osweiler for next season and have him compete with whoever is on the roster, which could include a high draft pick.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected 2017 starter: Blake Bortles

Bortles has one more year on his rookie contract, and, despite his disappointing season, the Jaguars probably don't want give up on him, knowing they're going through a head-coaching change. If, for example, the Jags hire a defensive-minded head coach, he can take the year to keep the defense playing at a high level and concentrate on fixing the defense while Jacksonville gets another year to evaluate Bortles. And if Bortles doesn't improve, Jacksonville can move on and try to find its QB of the future. The Jaguars have invested a lot of time and money into developing Bortles, but he has regressed in 2016. It's hard to envision him becoming a franchise quarterback.


Miami Dolphins

Projected 2017 starter: Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill has had an up-and-down career, but another year with offensive-minded coach Adam Gase will help him. Before hurting his ACL, Tannehill had the Dolphins in the AFC wild-card race. Fortunately, Tannehill didn't need a knee reconstruction, so the pair can work together again in 2017.


Minnesota Vikings

Projected 2017 starter: Sam Bradford

The Vikings made the perfect trade knowing the extent of Teddy Bridgewater's knee injury because there's no guarantee Bridgewater will be ready for the start of the 2017 season. Bradford, who has a contract through the 2017 season, has done well with Minnesota. Injuries have crushed the Vikings' season after a 5-0 start, but no one can blame Bradford.


Washington Redskins

Projected 2017 starter: Kirk Cousins

After years of searching for a quarterback, the Redskins have finally found one in Cousins, who will either be franchised or sign a long-term contract worth around $24 million a year. Cousins is having another great season.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Many thanks, Chedda.

I'd be happy if the Browns traded for Garoppolo, although I doubt he'd be thrilled with the concept.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Jay Cutler on the Jets is a match made in heaven...
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Sabo wrote:Many thanks, Chedda.

I'd be happy if the Browns traded for Garoppolo, although I doubt he'd be thrilled with the concept.
I fear the Bears will trade for him, no matter how he feels about "coming home".
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Can someone post the Osweiler article (or is that free?)?
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler was benched on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars after back-to-back interceptions.

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Fourteen games into Osweiler's first season as the franchise quarterback, coach Bill O'Brien had seen enough. Osweiler threw two interceptions from his own 25-yard line in the second quarter that handed the Jaguars 10 points. They were his 15th and 16th interceptions of the season. One of the league's biggest free-agent disappointments of 2016, Osweiler has led a Texans offense that entered the game averaging just 17.6 points per game -- 3.6 points per game fewer than the Brian Hoyer-led offense of 2015.

So can the Texans move on from Osweiler anytime soon? It won't be easy. Let's explore the Texans' options:


The Texans signed Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason that included $37 million in guaranteed money. Osweiler received a $12 million signing bonus, and the team guaranteed his $16 million salary next season.

Releasing him after the season would eat up $25 million of next year's cap, although the Texans could designate him a post-June 1 release and have a $19 million cap hit in 2017 and $6 million cap hit in 2018. The cap is expected to go up to between $163 million and $165 million next year, so it is possible to cut him, but doing so would create major issues. The Texans wouldn't have any room to upgrade their roster in free agency and would be limited in what they can do in re-signing their own free agents, which include linebacker John Simon and cornerback A.J. Bouye.


Brock Osweiler's future is in doubt after he was pulled from the Texans' win over the Jaguars. Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
It's much more likely that the Texans keep Osweiler in 2017 and part ways with him after that season if he doesn't improve. Releasing him before the 2018 season would only cost $6 million in dead money.

Another issue with releasing Osweiler this offseason: It would be tough to find -- and pay -- his replacement. For example, the Texans would find it difficult to pay for a veteran starter such as Tony Romo. Romo might work well in a domed stadium, but the cheapest price for him would be $12 million, roughly what Ryan Fitzpatrick received from the New York Jets this season. Free-agent signal-caller Mike Glennon will likely be too expensive, too.

One option could be trading for New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has one more year on his rookie deal and would cost only around $900,000 for 2017. O'Brien would have an ally in trade discussions with his former boss, Bill Belichick. The Texans picked up Ryan Mallett in a cheap trade in 2014.

The bidding for Garoppolo, however, could be expensive. The Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears likely would show interest. It would probably cost at least a second-round pick in 2017 and maybe a reasonably high pick in 2018, something similar to what the Kansas City Chiefs paid for Alex Smith in 2013.

Because the Texans won't have choices in rounds higher than the Browns and Bears, who are expected to draft in the top five, they might have to offer a first-round pick and possibly something else.

Do the Texans admit their free-agent mistake, or does O'Brien try to make the best of a bad situation and see if Osweiler makes a huge improvement in 2017? Houston has a lot to think about in its efforts to get its offense back on track.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Thanks. I personally think Savage will win the job and we'll have the most expensive backup for a year.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Can someone please post this story for me?

Thanks in advance.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2017/insid ... -nfl-draft
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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INDIANAPOLIS -- The defensive linemen and linebackers got their chance to take the field on Sunday, and Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett showed why so many people think he'll be the first overall pick. At 6-foot-4½ and 272 pounds with 35½-inch arms, Garrett ran a 4.64 40, had a vertical jump of 41 inches and broad jumped 10 feet, 8 inches. Those are crazy-good numbers.

Garrett aside, there were plenty of other players who performed well, including the younger brother one of the best defensive linemen in the game. Here are six prospects who boosted their stock on Sunday, starting with an outside linebacker who has moved into the first round conversation with an impressive overall showing.


Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

Rank entering combine: No. 41 overall

Reddick capped off a tremendous postseason process by putting on a show during on-field workouts. He showed good strength (24 reps on the bench) and had an elite 40 time for a 237-pounder (4.52 seconds). His 11-foot-1-inch broad jump tied Darron Lee and A.J. Hawk for the highest since 2006 among linebackers. Reddick also showed really good balance and fluidity during drill work, which isn't surprising considering how comfortable he looked at the Senior Bowl playing the off-linebacker position. Reddick confirmed he has the athleticism to be a contributor in multiple spots along the front seven. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him come off the board in Round 1.


Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State

Rank entering combine: No. 132 overall

Willis had one of the more surprising workouts from the defensive line group, testing extremely well across the board. At 255 pounds, he ran a 4.53 in the 40-yard dash, second to only Reddick among players who tested as D-linemen. Even more impressive: Willis' 1.54-second 10-yard split (unofficial) and 6.85-second three-cone were both the fastest of the defensive line group and in rare air for the position. In addition, Willis tied for third among the group with a 4.28-second short shuttle while also turning in a vertical (39 inches) and broad jump (10 feet, 5 inches) that were well above-average. Willis' tape is up and down, but this type of workout will force teams to take a closer look and could potentially sneak him into the late Day 2 range.


Tyus Bowser, OLB, Houston

Rank entering combine: No. 100 overall

Bowser made some money with his showing in Indianapolis this weekend. At nearly 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, he has a thick, muscular frame with long arms for the position (33¼ inches), and he showed adequate strength with 21 reps on the bench. Bowser's 40-yard dash (4.65) and broad jump (10 feet, 7 inches) both ranked in the top five for the position, and he also recorded the highest vertical jump (37.5 inches) of the entire linebacker group. In addition, Bowser impressed during drill work with good fluidity, balance and change-of-direction skills. Bowser caught some eyes at the Senior Bowl and is another prospect who is taking advantage of the pre-draft process. He's now squarely in the Day 2 range.


T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin

Rank entering combine: No. 43 overall

The younger brother of Texans DE J.J. Watt, T.J. missed the 2014 season with a right knee injury and then the 2015 spring with an issue in his left knee. So his medical checks will be critical to his draft stock. In addition, Watt is just a redshirt junior, and after moving from tight end to outside linebacker in the fall of 2015, he has just one year of notable production. With all of that in mind, it was important that he test well, and he did just that. At 252 pounds and a little taller than 6-foot-4, Watt ran a 4.69 40, recorded a 37-inch vertical and broad jumped 10 feet, 8 inches. Those are all excellent results for a bigger outside linebacker. Watt finished off a great day by moving well during position drills.


Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic

Rank entering combine: No. 173 overall

Hendrickson -- who was named the East-West Shrine Game's most outstanding defensive player -- continues to improve his stock. At 6-foot-4 and 266 pounds, he made a case to 3-4 teams that he's athletic enough to play outside linebacker and showed that he has the physical tools to develop into a disruptive pass rusher. He ran a 4.68 40, finished with the second fastest three-cone time (4.2) among the D-linemen and ran a 7.03 short shuttle, which is an above-average time for a linebacker, let alone a defensive end. He also moved better than expected in space and even showed the ability to play the ball during position drills.


Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State

Rank entering combine: No. 59 overall

At a shade under 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, McMillan ran the third fastest 40 (4.61) among linebackers and put up 23 reps on the bench. The bench is right around the five-year combine average for linebackers, but it's important to consider that McMillan has longer arms (33 inches) for an ILB. One of the concerns regarding McMillan is whether he's a two-down linebacker who needs to be taken out on obvious passing downs. The way he moved and played the ball during position drills -- and his quick 40 -- will help ease those concerns.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Thanks, DSG.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Any one able to help with this one?

http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_ ... e-deadline

Thanks in advance.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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When the dust settled on the Vegas Golden Knights' expansion draft, general manager George McPhee had set his team up for a very bright future.

The NHL's newest franchise held three of the first 15 picks in the 2017 draft and 10 picks in the first two rounds between 2018 and 2020. McPhee also appeared to be in position to scoop up even more draft picks at the 2017-18 trade deadline, as a number of his expansion picks were upcoming free agents.

We assumed that the Golden Knights' first campaign would be in line with other expansion clubs that struggled out of the gate. By the deadline, it seemed, Vegas would be able to trade proven players to stack even more future assets.

Not so fast.

Vegas has flipped the script by winning 22 of its first 33 games. The Golden Knights sit in first place in the Pacific Division, rank third in the NHL in goals scored per game and beat the mighty Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday.

What does their hot start mean for the short- and long-term future of the Golden Knights? How might it reshape the trade deadline overall? Let's have a look.

Will McPhee's plan change with a chance to compete in Year 1?

Three of Vegas's top five scorers are unrestricted free agents following this season. Forwards James Neal, David Perron and Jonathan Marchessault, who will each hit the market in July, have combined for 34 goals and 45 assists.

If Vegas remains near the top of the Western Conference, McPhee will have to choose between sinking his club's playoff chances by trading top players at the deadline or sacrificing the future for a shot at continuing an incredibly improbable run.

Standing still should not be an option. The Golden Knights' current roster is not likely strong enough to win the Cup. They are a solid team but still rank 13th in Corsi for percentage and goals for percentage at even strength. Letting UFAs walk for no return to only gain a first-round out in the playoffs would not be worth the trade-off. Going all-in or selling is each a better option than letting it play out.

But in order to go all-in, some drastic moves would have to be made. Considering that the last six Cups have been raised by teams with top-10-type players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, Vegas will need to do a lot more than adding a few role players at the deadline to compete with the big boys.

The Golden Knights would need to chase after top upcoming free agents on bottom teams like Buffalo power forward Evander Kane or even the Sedin twins from Vancouver. Vegas also has the cap room to take on another rebuilding team's veteran contract, so it could go after players like Sabres center Ryan O'Reilly or Florida blueliner Keith Yandle. The Golden Knights could also make a huge run at two star defensemen who are UFAs in 2019, Ottawa's Erik Karlsson and Arizona's Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

If none of those franchise-changing moves are possible, the best option for McPhee might be to stay the long-term course and try to move his pending UFAs.

Prices change from year to year based on the market, but if Vegas makes Neal and Marchessault available, it could have a chance to pull in a first-round pick from a contending team. After all, Arizona snagged a first in the deal that sent center Martin Hanzal to Minnesota last season.

Vegas is already set up nicely with the three 2017 first-rounders and young players. Alex Tuch, for example, is 21 years old and has 15 points in 28 games. Defenseman Shea Theodore, 22, is a wizard with the puck. The team's No. 2 scorer, William Karlsson, is 24.

If the Golden Knights added two more first-round picks to the bundle of draft assets they already hold, McPhee's team would be more likely to land the superstar-level talent required to compete for the Cup. It would take three to five years to get there, but we have seen teams like Toronto and Winnipeg build through the draft over a number of years, and these are now two of the league's most dangerous teams.

Is regression coming?

Of course, if the Golden Knights fall apart between now and the trade deadline, McPhee's decision will be easy.

Based on the numbers from the first three months of the NHL season, it doesn't appear a collapse is coming. Vegas has a positive shot and goal differential for the season, and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been strong since returning from injury on Dec. 12.

The Golden Knights are creating a good number of scoring chances, ranking 12th in the NHL in high-danger shots (per Natural Stat Trick), and haven't been driven by special teams. In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise if their power play (21st) and penalty kill (23rd) got better over time.

One factor, however, might hint at an upcoming slide: the schedule.

Vegas wraps up December by playing the Capitals at home, Anaheim and Los Angeles on the road and Toronto at home. In January, eight of the Golden Knights' 12 games are against teams currently in line to make the playoffs.

An impressive run through that group could make it clear to McPhee that his team should morph into win-now mode. But if the Golden Knights hit the skids, the decision to move top UFAs will become easier.

Who will be surprising sellers?

The league's 30 other teams likely figured on bidding wars for Neal, Marchessault and Perron at the deadline. Instead, the crop of available players could come from teams that were expected to be in contention:

Montreal Canadiens: Forward Tomas Plekanec is the most notable upcoming free agent for the Canadiens. He won't get anywhere near the attention the Vegas scorers would on the market. However, Montreal could try to shift its long-term direction by trading a player under contract for several years, such as former top pick Alex Galchenyuk.

Ottawa Senators: Ottawa is in rough shape. It appears plausible that the Senators will lose Karlsson, who carried the team on his back to the Eastern Conference finals, either at the end of his contract after next season or by being forced to trade him. Only blueliner Johnny Oduya is a UFA after this season, while the contracts of key forwards Matt Duchene and Derick Brassard also come up after 2018-19. They could begin a full-fledged teardown sooner than later.

Edmonton Oilers: If Edmonton doesn't feel it can re-sign winger Patrick Maroon, a favorite linemate of Connor McDavid's, they could score a solid draft pick or prospect for his services at the deadline. Otherwise, the Oilers don't have much to offer unless someone is willing to take on Milan Lucic's long-term deal.

Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim has a shot at getting healthy and getting back into the race, but time is running out. The Ducks could begin a retooling process by moving upcoming UFAs Andrew Cogliano, Kevin Bieksa and Antoine Vermette to give players in the system some experience heading into next season. Even if Anaheim misses the postseason, it should bounce back in 2018-19, especially with the addition of center Adam Henrique.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Gracias.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Ryan »

I obviously haven't followed closely enough (beyond "they're winning lots") because that's pretty fascinating. I would absolutely trade every single one of those guys and then go into hiding for a couple years.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by mister d »

Yeah, this is a shit situation. If the goal is a Cup, you sell off at a much bigger deadline profit than you ever could have hoped for at the draft. If the goal is not infuriating your new fanbase and the league as a whole, you lose in the 1st round.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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mister d wrote:Yeah, this is a shit situation. If the goal is a Cup, you sell off at a much bigger deadline profit than you ever could have hoped for at the draft. If the goal is not infuriating your new fanbase and the league as a whole, you lose in the 1st round.


I started having this same conversation with people a couple of weeks ago. McPhee is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, though I don't necessarily agree with the idea that standing pat isn't an option. It obviously depends on an insane variety of factors now including performance in the next five weeks, injuries and what have you, but if they're committed to losing Neal, Marchy, Perron, etc anyway might as well try to see what happens with the current lineup in the playoffs. The whole season has been a longshot ticket that has come in so far, so why not see how far it goes.

If you oversimplify and assume they have three options, I would rate them as of today as:

1) Stand pat
2) Sell high on the expiring contracts.
3) Trade draft capital or prospects for a couple of extra guys.

I don't think I can emphasize how bad an idea I think number 3 is. Fortunately I think McPhee agrees with me. He has more media capital/goodwill than maybe any GM in NHL history so he can afford to use some if he ends up deciding to move even just one of those guys for a big haul of more picks.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Yeah #3 has to be a no go. Did you see the recent Wyshynski piece on Vegas at ESPN.com? I don't think it's behind the insider paywall.

Headed to the Bolts game tonight with my oldest. Hope they come out pissed off about the last 40 minutes that they played the other night.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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govmentchedda wrote:Yeah #3 has to be a no go. Did you see the recent Wyshynski piece on Vegas at ESPN.com? I don't think it's behind the insider paywall.

Headed to the Bolts game tonight with my oldest. Hope they come out pissed off about the last 40 minutes that they played the other night.


Yeah, that was a good piece. Crazy long. I actually heard him talking about it too on NHL Radio on S/XM when I was driving up to Boise yesterday.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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I wonder if there’s any regression to be expected, either in season or once a playoff series starts, based on increased video. They were a mostly blank slate coming in unless you just forecasted out a Gallant system and I wonder just how much advanced scouting you can or even should do (then communicate to the coach and him to the team) for a one-off game.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Any of you The Athletic subscribers willing to post Seth Davis's latest Hoop Thoughts article? https://theathletic.com/253266/2018/02/ ... ly-top-25/
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Are you ready for a second dose of the truth?

Last week, I parachuted behind enemy lines to get you inside information on the top teams from the Big East, the Big Ten and the Big 12. I am back for my second installment on the American, the ACC, the SEC and the Pac 12. If you can’t handle blunt candor, you should stop reading now. It’s no shame to admit you can’t handle the truth.

For the uninitiated, here’s the drill. I spoke with two or three coaches (both head coaches and assistants) from each of the four conferences. I granted then anonymity so they could give me their unvarnished assessments of the top teams in their respective leagues. If these evaluations seem overly critical, that’s on me, not them. We know these teams are good. That’s why they’re worth talking about. I wanted to know where they might be vulnerable as we head into the postseason. Because that’s when everything gets exposed.

Here, then, is part two of my enemy lines report. I trust that accessing all this intel will render you that much more intelligent.

ACC
Clemson: “Solid team. They defend and they’re not going to beat themselves. I don’t think they’re overly talented. They’ve hung on without Grantham because they have shot the ball extremely well, but they’ve lost that recently so losing him is catching up to them. Devoe is a good shooter but not a great change-of-direction guy. You want to make him bounce it. Elijah Thomas is not a good pick-and-roll defender. He’s also foul prone, so when he goes out they’re not real effective inside. When Donnal comes in they have five guys who shoot 3s. I don’t think they’re a great defensive team.”

Duke: “Everyone says their defense is weak, but they are hard to score against when they’re in zone. They’re too big to play man-to-man. Bagley can’t guard anybody, but he’s an unreal offensive talent. They have multiple pros on that team and they’re physical. They’re talented enough to win the national championship. Grayson is better when Bagley is not playing. He’s getting his confidence back. I’ve always felt Grayson is a great complementary guy. If he’s your main guy, you’re in trouble. You can get them in transition because their transition defense is not great. Trent is a huge key for them. He’s streaky but he can make big 3s.”

Louisville: “Padgett is doing a good job getting them to play hard, but when you have a force of nature like Pitino as the coach and he leaves, it’s just a hard spot. They’re long and extremely athletic. Their point guard play isn’t great. Snider was better two years ago. It seems like he used to be quicker. Spalding and Mahmoud are so long. They won’t be an easy team to play in the tournament on one day’s prep because it’s hard to prepare for their length. You have to keep Adel in check and not let him get off scoring on drives and hitting 3s. V.J. King is a disappointment. He was a McDonald’s All-American; he needs to be better for them to be an elite team.”

North Carolina: “They don’t have the same firepower they had the last two years. Berry is not shooting the ball as well. They’re still a great offensive rebounding team. That’s what they do. They’re long and athletic. You don’t want to let Cam Johnson shoot. He’s got some softness to him, so you’ve got to be physical. Luke Maye could be ACC Player of the Year. You’ve got to be in his space because he can shoot it and he’s got a good motor.”

N.C. State: “They’re talented. They’ll get after you with their press, and they have multiple weapons. Their inside play is their main weakness. Yurtseven is not a true low-post guy. He’ll drift on you. People get sucked in on him, but he’s a good passer and knows how to play. You can’t turn it over against them. If you notice, Abu is not a main guy for them right now because they’re playing more skillful. They don’t guard great. They try to get their press going, but in a halfcourt game they’re not putting up a lot of resistance. And Yurtseven is a very weak defender in a pick-and-roll. He’s slow-footed.”

Virginia: “The biggest question is what happens when they get behind. Do they have enough firepower to out-talent the other team? Even though they don’t press, they lead the ACC in steals percentage. They’re really good at stripping the ball. Their inside players can’t beat you. They are very reliant on the 3-ball. They lost to Virginia Tech because they shot it bad [11 for 38]. I also think they foul on every possession, but because they are so good defensively they get away with it. Their impact on the ball is as good as it gets.”

Virginia Tech: “They’re fast, they’re quick, they can really shoot the 3 and they have a great guard in Robinson. They’re as good as any team in the country at driving downhill. They don’t dribble the ball — they drive it. You have to be able to move the pieces by skipping the ball and attacking them. You can score on them at times. They’re like a great spread offense in football. Bibbs would be average as a 6-5 2-guard but as a 4 he becomes elite because of the way he shoots. They’re not a great defensive team because they don’t put up a lot of resistance at the rim. They’ll play that matchup zone and switch everything to keep you in front.”

SEC
Alabama: “The biggest question with them is experience. They’re so young. They have stretches where they are not shooting well or they miss defensive assignments. They’ve got unbelievable length and great rim protection with Donta Hall. Sexton is great off ball screens. You just have to pray he’s missing. He does a great job getting fouled, so you don’t want to bail him out. You want to make him finish at the rim and stay in the midrange area. I think they’re better sometimes when they don’t play Sexton as much because the other guys distribute it more. He takes them out of what they do sometimes.”

Arkansas: “A good point guard will give them trouble because he can control the pace. They’re so versatile on defense, they have a great ability to switch and take the ball where they want. Gafford does a great job protecting the rim, and he runs great in transition. They have to make perimeter shots. They can play throug Gafford in the post some, but it’s not enough. Macon and Barford have to make shots. They’re going to be tough to beat on quick preparation. Their problem is they don’t guard very well. You can get a lot of open shots. They’re one of the worst teams in our league defensively, but they can win a scoring contest. They’ve started to mix in some zone lately, which has helped them with the short bench.”

Auburn: “They can’t score in the low post. That’s where they’ll get beat in the tournament. They’re so reliant on the 3-point shot. McLemore was the best shot-blocker in our league before he got hurt. Without him, they don’t have rim protection. They need to keep turning defense into offense, which is a tough way to live in the tournament. You have to have speed to guard their perimeter guys. They spread you out and they have five guys who make 3s. Bryce Brown can put it on the floor and make plays, but you still want to make him a 2-point shooter. Harper is very, very underrated. He’s the one who creates all the rotation that leaves their perimeter shooters open, and he’s really good defensively.”

Florida: “With that small lineup it boils down to will they make enough 3s to make the other team go small. Chiozza is elite in transition. You want to let him drive and force him to finish over you instead of letting him kick it out to everybody for 3. The lack of size can definitely hurt them if they get the wrong matchup. If you can make it tough for them to score, they’ll get frustrated. They don’t have a big guy they can throw it into. They’re not the toughest group, either. If you give ’em some resistance, they don’t handle that very well.”

Kentucky: “I think a lot of their problems came from guys being shuffled in and out. They brought in Vanderbilt and sometimes it takes time to get the whole team into rhythm. Green was out and he came back. Defensively you have to pack it in and play some zone to prevent their layups and dunks. Their biggest liability is their outside shooting. Knox is tough. He’s so big, and he'll shoot over you. A lot of their losing stretch was freshmen being tired and hitting a wall. If that’s going to happen, better that it happens earlier than in March. They don’t block a lot of shots at the rim. Their 5-men are not very good there. They’re above average defensively, but they’re not an elite rebounding team.”

Missouri: “They have great defensive intensity. I wonder about their lack of experience. There will be a transition period if Michael Porter comes back, but he might be so good it won’t matter. What has held them back is their point guard play. Kassius Robertson starts at point and they bring Geist off the bench, but usually their lineups have one or two guys who are non-threats. When we played them, I was surprised how good they were. They look better live than on tape. If they can keep Tilmon out of foul trouble, he’s a problem inside. Who knows how they will handle it when Porter comes back, but if nothing else it gives them another body. They’ve only been playing seven or eight guys. Robertson is going to wear down. He leads the league in minutes played.”


Williamses are wild in the SEC: Grant leads the Vols in scoring, while Robert tops the Aggies in rebounding and blocked shots. (photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Tennessee: “They’re the team in our league that is best built for a deep run in the tournament, because they can really guard you, they’ve got size in the post, they have a defensive presence and their guards can make shots. If they get bogged down in a physical game, they can win that. If they lose they usually get out-rebounded. They go to Grant Williams in crunch times. Schofield is the X-factor. When he makes 3s and he’s scoring inside, they’re really tough to beat. You have to defend him one-on-one because he’s really good at passing out of double-teams. They don’t get a lot of scoring from their point guard when Bone is in there.”

Texas A&M: “They’ve got two NBA-level big guys. Davis and Williams are so big inside. Being able to match with them is the key. Williams does a great job getting position by using his body. You have to have strength to match up with him. The problem with them is their point guard play. They don’t shoot it real well on the perimeter. When they’re on, they’re as good as anybody in our league. Problem is, they’re on about two times a month. With Wilson out, they’re playing Starks at point guard, but he’s a really streaky shooter. When Davis is engaged, he’s active on the offensive glass. But he’s not always engaged.”

American
Cincinnati: “They’re more of a physical, athletic team than a skilled team, ultimately. They switch everything and they have great athletes at every position. I don’t know about their point guard play. They rely on getting in the open court and beating you on the offensive boards. Clark has great athleticism and length, so he’s good around the basket. His shooting range is improved. Evans is the best creator, but he doesn’t shoot it enough. He needs to be more of a pig out there. Sometimes you don’t know if they’re in zone or man-to-man. You have to move the ball. They average 13 or 14 offensive rebounds a game. If you can hold them off, you have a good chance of beating them because they’re not real skilled offensively.”

Houston: “I really like the way they play. They can get up and down the floor. They’re a small team. They play Rob Gray at small forward, and he’s only 6-1. But they can all shoot the ball and they’re really good off the dribble. Robinson can’t shoot, but he’s a good playmaker. You can post up their guards and keep them off the boards. Gray is a big-time scorer going to his right. He can go to his left too, but when he does he’s taking a jump shot. He’s really good at attacking your body and finishing through contact. He doesn’t have a great 3-point percentage, but you can’t play off him because he will make volume 3s. When Davis is out, there goes their scoring in the frontcourt. If you throw the ball inside on a consistent basis, they’ll struggle to defend that.”

Wichita State: “They have incredible size and physicality. Shaq Morris is a beast. He really knows how to use his body to seal and get deep catches in the paint, plus he can go out and make a 3. Landy Shamet went through a stretch where he missed 17 of 18 3s, and that only took his percentage down to 46. Defensively they’re not as good as they’ve been. You can attack Reaves and Frankamp off the dribble. Same with Shamet. They don’t have a drop-dead-keep-you-in-front guy. If Shamet gets in foul trouble, they’re in trouble because they don’t have any backup point guards. They do have depth up front, but a lot of teams are putting those guys in pick-and-roll situations. Those guys don’t move their feet well.”

Pac-12
Arizona: “What a mess. It’s hard to know what will happen if they have to play the rest of the way without Sean. We’ll have to see what happens with their roster. Without Trier, depth on the perimeter is a concern. He’s such a great scorer. I don’t know where those points come from if he’s not there. Arizona’s kryptonite is the zone. They’ve been zoned a lot for a reason. Now they’ve gotten better at attacking it. Deandre Ayton is the best player in the country. He’s going to get his 19, but you have to keep him from getting 28 or 30. He can block shots, and it’s hard to get him into foul trouble. Alkins can’t make enough shots. They’re not as good defensively as Arizona teams in the past. They don’t have that same innate toughness. These guys identify themselves as offensive players. I wouldn’t say Jackson-Cartright is a weak link but he’s no T.J. McConnell. ”

Arizona State: “They just live and die by the 3. If you can take that away, they’re very susceptible. Shannon Evans is the one that scares me, without a doubt. He’s a baller, man. Just has great toughness. It would help if they could get to the foul line more, but teams have played a lot of zone against them. You want to take away their 3s and make them finish in the lane with floaters and runners. At the other end, you can spread it out and pound it at ’em. They’ll double-team in the post. They’re scrappy and pesky, but they’re not big so if you’re patient and spread the floor, physical guards can get by ’em and make plays.”

UCLA: “They’re the dark horse in this league. Aaron Holiday is a second to Ayton as the Player of the Year in our league. He’s a junkyard dog. He can go coast to coast and really break you down. If you get the ball out of his hands, they become a pretty average team. And if he gets in foul trouble or turns an ankle, they’re toast. They’re like a baseball team that builds down the middle with Holiday and Welsh. The X factors are Wilkes, Ali and Hands. They rely on making shots and scoring because they’re not going to beat you with their defense. It’s just not their mindset. Probably the most mysterious team in the league. Some nights they look like the best team; other nights you wonder what’s going on. When they don’t show up defensively, you can score a lot of points on ’em. They just don’t hang their hat on defense. Wilkes is not a great shooter. You want to keep him from getting to the rim. You’ve got to stay real tight with Welsh. If you help off him, he’s great on the baseline.”

USC: “McLaughlin is a top-three point guard in the country. He can hurt you in every way. Not having Boatwright changes a lot. They don’t have much depth. Usher is a good player, but he doesn’t have the same experience and size. He becomes important because they can’t play Metu and Rakocevic together for long periods. They play some zone because they’re just OK defensively. Metu is a great shot blocker, but he’s an awful ball-screen defender. Boatwright made them tough to guard. They don’t have a real back-to-the-basket scorer, but I don’t know how important that is anymore. Their interior defense is not great. Metu can’t afford to get into foul trouble, so he’ll let you do your thing. He can protect the rim, but one-on-one he’s not taking a lot of chances.”

Utah: “They’re solid, very well-coached. They don’t have a lot of firepower. I’m not sure they have a pro on their team. Defensively they’re kind of soft. Bibbins is a little guard, and their bigs are not good defenders. You have to make Collette play in a crowd. When he gets one-on-one on the block, he’s pretty good. Barefield is talented but inconsistent. They have to be clicking on all cylinders to beat you. They don’t have great depth. They’re physical. They fight you defensively. They slow you down with that zone. They don’t have depth in the post. If Collette gets in foul trouble they’re done.”



THIS WEEK’S AP BALLOT
(Last week’s rank on my ballot in parentheses)

Virginia (2)
Michigan State (3)
Villanova (1)
Xavier (4)
Kansas (6)
North Carolina (9)
Duke (10)
Purdue (8)
Michigan (11)
Gonzaga (13)
Ohio State (14)
Auburn (12)
Texas Tech (5)
Rhode Island (16)
Wichita State (17)
Cincinnati (18)
Nevada (19)
Tennessee (20)
Clemson (15)
Arizona (7)
Saint Mary’s (22)
Kentucky (NR)
Middle Tennessee (24)
Loyola (Chi) (25)
Houston (21)


DROPPED OUT: UCLA (23)

Your trusty balloter had quite the conundrum to grapple with this week: How do you solve a problem like Arizona?

As you know, for most of the season I have been more bullish on the Wildcats than many of my peers. That goes back to October, when I ranked the Wildcats No. 1 on my preseason ballot while most of the AP voters went with Duke. That was largely based on my anticipation that Deandre Ayton would be a dominating, transformative player. As it turns out, that would be the only predictable thing in Arizona’s season.

The team needed overtime to win at Oregon State and then lost at Oregon in OT last week, and that alone would warrant a severe drop. There are, to say the least, many more complicating factors. Losing head coach Sean Miller is not easy, but I would submit he is more easily replaced than Allonzo Trier, who is the team’s only reliable perimeter scoring threat. Without that presence, it was easy for the Oregon defenders to collapse on Ayton in the second half Saturday night, which enabled the Ducks to prevail in overtime.

We don’t know if either Miller or Trier is coming back, but in the meantime, I am going to rank Arizona under the assumption that they are not. Needless to say, my optimism surrounding this team has waned.

By the same token, I had to rank Texas Tech not just on the basis of its three-game losing streak, but also factoring in my concerns that Keenan Evans’ toe injury. As I’ve been saying, toes are tricky. That is some soft tissue in there, and it does not heal easily – and that area of the foot is of supreme importance to a basketball player. Evans has been a shell of himself during this losing streak, and I can’t see how the Red Raiders can get to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament unless he is at full strength. It’s a shame, too, because this team was having a heck of a season.

My sense is that Duke is probably a little better than the seventh-best team in the country, but at some level I have to let results dictate my voting. Given that the Blue Devils lost at North Carolina – and given that North Carolina hasn’t lost since – I thought it was fair that Duke remain ranked behind the Tar Heels. Those two teams clash again in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday night. If Duke wins, it will enjoy a big bump on my ballot next week. (And what greater motivation could a team have?)

Wichita State only rose two spots on my ballot, but I have to say I am really warming up to this team. As my enemy lines report indicated, the Shockers are not quite as stout defensively as they’ve been recently, but their current offense-oriented profile is much more suited to today’s game. I would anticipate Wichita State winning the AAC tournament and entering March Madness with a lot of positive momentum.

The same is true for Gonzaga, which I expect will win the West Coast Conference tournament, but my ranking of the Zags has pretty much topped out at 10. They are winning a lot of games against inferior teams. I don’t believe in automatically rewarding schools for winning a lot of games against weaker competition.

UCLA was the only team I dropped completely off my ballot this week. That meant I only had one spot to award to a previously unranked squad. I thought about going with Creighton on the basis of its win at home over Villanova, but before that the Bluejays lost four out of five, so I couldn’t pull the trigger. Florida had one of the best wins among the Almost Famous last week when it knocked off Auburn at home. But frankly, I am not a believer at all in the Gators. I just think they caught Auburn at the right time.

I went with Kentucky not just on the basis of its three-game win streak. Those wins came against Alabama and Missouri at home and (more impressively) Arkansas on the road. Having watched the Wildcats all season, I can see the signs of this team coming together in all the right ways. I love the extensive minutes that John Calipari is playing Shea Gilgeous-Alexander and Quade Green together. I love the emergence of Jarred Vanderbilt as a rebounding fool. (He has averaged 11 rebounds in 22 minutes per game during this win streak.) Mostly, I love that this squad is developing its identity around defense. So I actually suspect Kentucky could well be considerably better than the 22nd-ranked team in the country. My guess is it’s only a matter of time before the results on the court bear out that suspicion.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Shirley »

You're an officer and a gentleman.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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mister d wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:07 pm I wonder if there’s any regression to be expected, either in season or once a playoff series starts, based on increased video. They were a mostly blank slate coming in unless you just forecasted out a Gallant system and I wonder just how much advanced scouting you can or even should do (then communicate to the coach and him to the team) for a one-off game.
They did sign Marchessault already, so I’d guess they let Perron walk and try to get Neal to give them a hometown discount.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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sancarlos wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:31 pm
mister d wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:07 pm I wonder if there’s any regression to be expected, either in season or once a playoff series starts, based on increased video. They were a mostly blank slate coming in unless you just forecasted out a Gallant system and I wonder just how much advanced scouting you can or even should do (then communicate to the coach and him to the team) for a one-off game.
They did sign Marchessault already, so I’d guess they let Perron walk and try to get Neal to give them a hometown discount.
I think it will be the other way around, but yeah. They'll try to get one of those guys at a discount and let the other walk. Perron, his girlfriend and their kid are supposedly in love in Vegas so that's why I think he'll be more apt to give up a couple or three million (total) on a three or four-year deal. Also, he's been with four teams in five years so thinking the stability might be worth a bit of a discount (and the tax advantages of Vegas vs. just about everywhere else).
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Any chance someone can post this story? Thanks in advance.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insid ... r-32-picks
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by govmentchedda »

It's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. It's two rounds of projected picks for the 2018 NFL draft. It's 128 possible prospect-team matches. It's ... almost time for the real thing.

As a reminder, Mel and Todd are not making these picks based on their preferences; they're peering into the future and predicting what they think will happen during the draft.

Mel's predictions for picks 1-64 don't feature any trades, but Todd projects two big trades for teams moving up in the first round to take quarterbacks. Those picks are denoted with an asterisk.

Here we go, starting with the Browns, who have five picks in the first two rounds.

Jump to: Kiper's complete 1-64 | McShay's complete 1-64 | Full draft order


ROUND 1

1. Cleveland Browns
Kiper: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Allen, my top-ranked quarterback, can sit behind Tyrod Taylor in 2018 and take the Week 1 snaps in 2019.

McShay: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I've had Darnold here in all three of my mocks. Nothing he has done at the combine or pro day has changed my thoughts on this pick.


2. New York Giants
Kiper: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Darnold won't have to play early, giving him time to refine his mechanics and footwork. Unless the G-Men get a trade offer they can't refuse.


2018 NFL DRAFT


When: April 26-28
Where: Arlington, Texas
NFL draft coverage » | Full order: 1-256 »

•Insider Mel Kiper's Mock Draft 3.0 »
•Insider Todd McShay's Mock Draft 3.0 »
• Kiper's Big Board » | McShay's Top 32 »
• Teams with most, least draft capital »
•Insider Projecting QB booms, busts »
•Insider Kiper: Re-grading 2017 NFL draft »


2. Buffalo Bills (from Giants via Bengals)*
McShay: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

A trade! I know, I am flouting Kiper's rules. Here's what I'm projecting:

Bills get: Pick No. 2
Giants get: Pick Nos. 12, 22 and 53

I'm hearing a lot of buzz that a deal could happen between Buffalo and the Giants at No. 2. The strong-armed Allen fits the AFC East, and the Bills can be patient with him, as AJ McCarron can start in 2018. Allen has the highest upside of the quarterbacks in this class, but he might need the most polish.


3. New York Jets (from Colts)
Kiper: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

General manager Mike Maccagnan didn't trade up to not take a quarterback. And starter Josh McCown will be 39 when Week 1 begins.

McShay: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

This pick seems as if it probably will come down to Rosen or Baker Mayfield. Rosen is more polished, and if Maccagnan is OK with the character issues, Rosen is the pick here.


4. Cleveland Browns (from Texans)
Kiper: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Cleveland gets its quarterback at No. 1 and some help for its quarterback at No. 4. Barkley is my top-ranked prospect overall.

McShay: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

A dream scenario for GM John Dorsey, who gets his QB at No. 1 and the best player in the draft at 4.


5. Denver Broncos
Kiper: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Case Keenum got only a two-year deal in free agency. Mayfield could take his job at some point ... and be the Broncos' starter for the next 12 years.

McShay: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

I'm told Mayfield is a legit possibility here, but I think they'll pass if Chubb is still on the board.


6. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets)
Kiper: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

Easy choice here. Indy needs pass-rushers, and Chubb is the best in the class.

2018 NFL free agency


Kirk Cousins. Jimmy Graham. Andrew Norwell. This class is already wild. Here's everything to know.

• Barnwell's free agency & trade grades »
• Signings, analysis for all 32 teams »
•Insider Ranking top 100 NFL free agents »
•Insider Players who landed in perfect spots »
• Highest-paid players at every position »
• Who really got best free-agent deals? »
• Biggest remaining need for all 32 »
• Are Vikings NFC fave with Cousins? »
• Fantasy impact of key deals, moves »


6. Miami Dolphins (from Colts via Jets)*
McShay: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Another trade!

Miami gets: Pick No. 6
Indianapolis gets: Pick Nos. 11, 42

If Denver passes on Mayfield, I think Miami pounces and moves up to get him. Moving up wouldn't bankrupt Miami from a draft-capital standpoint. The Dolphins like Ryan Tannehill when he's healthy, but they can't trust him to stay on the field.


7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kiper: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Easy choice here, too. The Bucs' pass defense was woeful in 2017, and Ward is the best true corner in this class.

McShay: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

I'm with Mel here. Tampa Bay still needs help in the secondary, so the Bucs take the best man-to-man corner on the board.


8. Chicago Bears
Kiper: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

I thought about a linebacker here, but Nelson fills a big hole and should help Mitchell Trubisky.

McShay: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Josh Sitton is gone, and Nelson would represent a big upgrade. This continues a promising offseason trend of Chicago giving Trubisky what he needs to succeed.


9. San Francisco 49ers
Kiper: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

Fitzpatrick could start at corner -- opposite Richard Sherman -- or safety for the 49ers, who have a young, talented front seven but need to fill out the secondary.

McShay: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

San Francisco would love if Nelson fell here, but CB is still a need. GM John Lynch will go for the best player available, and Fitzpatrick is the best player on the board.


10. Oakland Raiders
Kiper: Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

As the first pick in the (new) Jon Gruden era, Smith could become one of the faces of the Raiders.

McShay: Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

The Raiders have a choice between the high-motor sideline-to-sideline Smith and the less-polished but freakishly gifted Tremaine Edmunds. A tough call, but I'll go with Smith here.


11. Miami Dolphins
Kiper: Derwin James, S, Florida State

James could go off the board here. Miami gets a safety in the mold of Kam Chancellor.


11. Indianapolis Colts (from Dolphins)*
McShay: Derwin James, S, Florida State

The Colts pick up more picks to move back and add a really solid, versatile playmaker to line up next to Malik Hooker in the secondary.


12. Buffalo Bills (from Bengals)
Kiper: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Edmunds might be the best athlete in this draft -- and he could play inside or outside linebacker in Buffalo.


12. New York Giants (from Bills via Bengals)*
McShay: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

With their first pick in the draft after the trade with Buffalo, the Giants get a versatile player who can play any linebacker spot in their new 3-4 defense. New York hasn't taken a first-round LB since Carl Banks in 1984, but Edmunds breaks the streak.


13. Washington Redskins
Kiper: Vita Vea, DT, Washington

Vea fills a critical need in the middle of the Washington defense.

McShay: Vita Vea, DT, Washington

Vea is a perfect fit for a defense that needs to get stout versus the run (last in league in run defense last season). James would be a possibility if still on the board, especially with Su'a Cravens gone to Denver.


14. Green Bay Packers
Kiper: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio

As I noted in my Mock Draft 3.0, pass-rusher Clay Matthews will be 32 in May. Green Bay needs to find (and develop) his replacement.

McShay: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

Marcus Davenport is still a possibility here, but I think the Packers go with a tall, long CB in Jackson, who is a good fit in new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine's scheme.


15. Arizona Cardinals
Kiper: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

This is a change from my last 1-32 projection, when I went with quarterback Lamar Jackson. Now I'm going with his former teammate, who fills a big hole on the other side of Patrick Peterson.

McShay: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

Arizona needs a QB, but in this scenario, the Cardinals can't get any of the top-four guys. Alexander is a fast riser, according to people in the league, and could immediately compete for the No. 2 CB spot.


16. Baltimore Ravens
Kiper: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Snagging a new right tackle in Round 1 gives Baltimore an upgraded offensive line -- and helps quarterback Joe Flacco.

McShay: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

The Ravens need another playmaking pass-catcher, and Hurst fits the bill. I have Dallas Goedert ranked ahead of Hurst, but I think I'm in the minority.


17. Los Angeles Chargers
Kiper: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

The Chargers have a stellar edge-rushing duo in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, but they need better players on the interior.

McShay: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Los Angeles could go with an offensive tackle here, but Brandon Mebane is 33, and the Chargers need to improve the interior of their defensive line. Payne is an immediate upgrade.


18. Seattle Seahawks
Kiper: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

Jackson and 2017 third-round pick Shaquill Griffin can help Seattle transition into the next phase of the Legion of Boom.

McShay: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas San Antonio

Without Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson, pass rush is all of a sudden a big need for Seattle. Davenport is raw but loaded with talent and would fit the scheme.


19. Dallas Cowboys
Kiper: Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

Evans could replace Anthony Hitchens at middle linebacker and help rush the passer on third downs.

McShay: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

An interior pass-rusher with his best football ahead of him, Bryan has elite first-step quickness. He'd fit well in a D-line rotation in Dallas.


20. Detroit Lions
Kiper: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

New coach Matt Patricia gets a highly talented piece to coach up. The Lions could also take the second running back off the board.

McShay: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

A lot of buzz surrounding Michel right now. He'd be a great addition to the backfield with Matthew Stafford.


21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Bills)
Kiper: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

The versatile Vander Esch is surging. The Bengals added middle linebacker Preston Brown in free agency, but it's a one-year deal.

McShay: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Evans is a stud. Vontaze Burfict's four-game suspension makes linebacker more of a need for Cincy.


22. Buffalo Bills (from Chiefs)
Kiper: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

With two picks on Day 1, Buffalo could trade up again. In this scenario, Sean McDermott & Co. get their quarterback of the future.


22. New York Giants (from Bills via Chiefs)*
McShay: James Daniels, OC/OG, Iowa

New York signed Nate Solder to be its left tackle and now solidifies the interior of the offensive line with Daniels, who could start at center or guard.

23. New England Patriots (from Rams)
Kiper: Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

The Patriots added this pick in the Brandin Cooks deal. Miller has a high ceiling -- he was an under-the-radar prospect heading into the season. At 6-foot-8, 309 pounds, Miller could play left or right tackle.

McShay: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

This deal gets New England in the position to take a left tackle. McGlinchey's NFL comp is Solder, so he'd make sense here.


24. Carolina Panthers
Kiper: Justin Reid, S, Stanford

I expect Reid to make my All-Rookie Team in 2018, wherever he ends up. He did it all for the Cardinal in 2017. Carolina could also target a defensive end.

McShay: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Carolina still needs pass-catchers on the outside, and Ridley is a good value here.


25. Tennessee Titans
Kiper: Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Is Landry more like the dominant edge rusher he was in 2016 (16.5 sacks), or is he like the player who underperformed in 2017? He put up great numbers at the combine.

McShay: Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Landry has a ton of talent but didn't put it together last season. This might be a little bit of a reach, but Landry has explosive traits.



26. Atlanta Falcons
Kiper: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

Hernandez, a road-grading blocker, could be an immediate starter on a top-to-bottom roster that is one of the league's most talented.

McShay: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

The Falcons have a strong roster already but add a speedy wideout here as another option for Matt Ryan.


27. New Orleans Saints
Kiper: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

Coby Fleener hasn't done much in two years, and Hurst would be a clear upgrade. The NFC is loaded in 2018, and the Saints should be in the thick of it again.

McShay: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

My top-ranked tight end is a good value here and gives Drew Brees another playmaker.


28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kiper: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Pittsburgh has JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant (and Antonio Brown, of course), but Bryant is a free agent in 2019. This position isn't set long term, and teams need multiple pass-catchers. The Steelers could also look closely at a linebacker.

McShay: Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Pittsburgh could use help in the secondary. Hughes might slip because he ran just a decent 40 time in Indy, but he's a ball hawk with good man-to-man cover skills.


29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kiper: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

Moore could be the top receiver picked on Day 1. And he'll help in the return game.

McShay: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson could provide competition for Blake Bortles, who is on a cap-friendly deal.


30. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper: James Daniels, C/G, Iowa

Minnesota could look at guards or tackles with this pick. Daniels could move to guard for the Vikings.

McShay: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

Not a lot of holes on this roster, so Minnesota probably will look at the offensive or defensive line here. Hernandez will help shore up the O-line to protect the investment the Vikings made in Kirk Cousins.


31. New England Patriots
Kiper: Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

Hughes could be Malcolm Butler's replacement and the punt and kick returner on Day 1.

McShay: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

A versatile defensive back, Harrison could be an eventual Patrick Chung replacement.


32. Philadelphia Eagles
Kiper: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Zach Ertz and Goedert would form one of the best tight end duos in the league. Philadelphia could also try to beef up its defensive line here.

McShay: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

The Eagles have the luxury of drafting for value. This would be a great landing spot for Vander Esch, as Philadelphia could use his versatility.

ROUND 2

33. Cleveland Browns
Kiper: Geron Christian, OT, Louisville

For the first time since 2007, Joe Thomas won't be the Browns' left tackle in Week 1. Christian is one of the most talented tackles in this class.

McShay: Connor Williams, OG/OT, Texas

The Browns need more help on the offensive line without Thomas lining up at left tackle.


34. New York Giants
Kiper: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

If the Giants pass on Saquon Barkley on Day 1, they could snag the No. 2 running back of the class here. And I'm sure their new quarterback would be thrilled.

McShay: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

The Giants get my third-ranked RB and another offensive playmaker for new coach Pat Shurmur.


35. Cleveland Browns (from Texans)
Kiper: D.J. Chark, WR, LSU

The 6-3 Chark ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the combine. That's elite speed. Now, can he be more consistent with his route-running? This pick is based on projection.

McShay: Justin Reid, S, Stanford

Cleveland gets another versatile safety on the back end to pair with Jabrill Peppers.


36. Indianapolis Colts
Kiper: Connor Williams, OT/OG, Texas

The Colts need to hit on these three second-round picks. Williams would slot in at right tackle in this scenario.

McShay: Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Georgia

The Colts have plenty of needs, and pass-rusher is one of them. Carter gives more speed to this defense and helps with the rush.


37. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets)
Kiper: Donte Jackson, CB, LSU

Both cornerback spots are open in Indianapolis. The 5-10, 178-pound Jackson is undersized but has elite speed and athleticism.

McShay: Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

Indianapolis must keep Andrew Luck upright to have a chance. Miller has excellent size and makes good second-level blocks.


38. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kiper: Ronald Jones II, RB, USC

The Bucs had one of the league's worst rushing offenses in 2017, and Muscle Hamster is gone. Jones is a threat to score on every touch.

McShay: Ronald Jones II, RB, USC

Running back is a glaring hole for Tampa Bay. Jones has home run potential with the ball in his hands.


39. Chicago Bears
Kiper: Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Georgia

Carter could sneak into the end of the first round. He could battle with newly signed outside linebacker Aaron Lynch for a starting spot.

McShay: Donte Jackson, CB, LSU

The fast CB (4.32 40-yard dash) would help give Chicago some much-needed depth in the secondary.


40. Denver Broncos
Kiper: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia

Wynn played tackle in college but is only 6-2. He dominated defenders during Senior Bowl practices.

McShay: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia

Wynn should move inside in the pros, but he has had an excellent postseason process. Denver needs O-line help.


41. Oakland Raiders
Kiper: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

Oakland should get much more out of 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley this season -- he played only 89 snaps last season -- but the spot across from him is wide-open.

McShay: Jessie Bates III, S, Wake Forest

A fast riser after a great combine workout, Bates helps solidify Oakland's secondary.


42. Miami Dolphins
Kiper: Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Hurst was diagnosed with a heart condition at the NFL combine but was recently cleared by doctors. He's one of the best 3-technique tackles in this class.


42. Indianapolis Colts (from Dolphins)*
McShay: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

This pick goes to the Colts as part of my proposed trade to have Miami move up from No. 11 to No. 6 to get a quarterback. The Colts don't have much at wide receiver behind T.Y. Hilton. Kirk is dangerous with the ball in his hands and can return kicks.


43. New England Patriots (from 49ers)
Kiper: Sam Hubbard, OLB/DE, Ohio State

The Patriots' top pick in 2017 -- outside linebacker Derek Rivers -- tore his ACL in the preseason and never got on the field. This is a position that needs to be addressed in the draft (again).

McShay: Jerome Baker, LB, Ohio State

New England continues to shore up its D with an athletic, undersized weakside linebacker.


44. Washington Redskins
Kiper: Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State

Samaje Perine, a fourth-round pick last year, averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. Penny is a home run threat.

McShay: D.J. Chark, WR, LSU

Chark has had a terrific postseason process, and his speed (4.34 40) would give Alex Smith another playmaker.


45. Green Bay Packers
Kiper: M.J. Stewart, CB, North Carolina

This is the seventh cornerback off the board so far. Is Green Bay really counting on 1,000 snaps this season from 35-year-old Tramon Williams?

McShay: Brian O'Neill, OT, Pittsburgh

The most important player on Green Bay is No. 12. This is a pick to help protect him.


46. Cincinnati Bengals
Kiper: Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford

Geno Atkins is under contract for only one more season, and the Bengals need depth at the interior of their defense.

McShay: Billy Price, C/G, Ohio State

Price tore his left biceps at the combine but should be back in time for offseason workouts. He'll help add depth to a Bengals offensive line in need of some.


47. Arizona Cardinals
Kiper: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Kirk is a dynamic playmaker who could play in the slot, and he's a stellar return man.

McShay: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

Sam Bradford can't be trusted to stay healthy, and Arizona needs to take a shot on a QB early in this draft. The value proposition fits here.


48. Los Angeles Chargers
Kiper: Jessie Bates, S, Wake Forest

This is another pick to solidify the middle of the L.A. defense. Bates is rising after he tested well at the combine.

McShay: Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

Another pick to help keep Philip Rivers upright.


49. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets via Seahawks)
Kiper: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

That's three positions of need addressed in the second round. Marlon Mack, a fourth-round pick in 2017, showed flashes, but he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry.

McShay: B.J. Hill, DT, NC State

With their fourth (!) pick in this second round, the Colts get some much-needed help on the interior of the defensive line.


50. Dallas Cowboys
Kiper: Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

I thought about tight end in Round 1 for Dallas, which needs to plan for a future without soon-to-be 36-year-old Jason Witten. Gesicki isn't much of a blocker at this point, but he has the skill set of a 6-5 slot receiver.

McShay: Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

With Dez Bryant's Cowboys future up in the air, Dak Prescott needs playmakers on the outside.


51. Detroit Lions
Kiper: Billy Price, OC/OG, Ohio State

Graham Glasgow could start at center or guard, which means the Lions have a hole to fill along the offensive line. Price, a four-year starter for the Buckeyes, tore his left pectoral muscle during the bench press at the combine but should be healthy for training camp.

McShay: Arden Key, DE, LSU

Key has the natural talent of a first-round pick, but his stock has dropped due to off-the-field concerns. The potential outweighs the risk at this point in the second round.


52. Baltimore Ravens
Kiper: Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

Former second-round pick Maxx Williams has only 47 catches since being drafted in 2015. Andrews played essentially as a slot receiver for the Sooners, so he needs to develop as a blocker.

McShay: Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida

Even with the additions of Michael Crabtree and John Brown, another wideout would be helpful for Baltimore.


53. Buffalo Bills
Kiper: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

I love this pick for the Bills, who need better weapons for whoever plays quarterback in 2018. (I gave them Lamar Jackson in Round 1.) Zay Jones, taken in Round 2 last year, struggled as a rookie.


53. New York Giants (from Bills)*
McShay: Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford

Remember: For me, this pick goes to the Giants as part of their deal with Buffalo, which moved up to No. 2 overall. The Giants need help on the defensive line to spell Damon Harrison and Dalvin Tomlinson. Phillips would be a good fit.


54. Kansas City Chiefs
Kiper: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

The Chiefs gave a big free-agent deal to Sammy Watkins, but they shouldn't be done. New starter Patrick Mahomes needs some help.

McShay: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

With Marcus Peters gone and no first-round pick from the Mahomes deal, Kansas City needs to hit on this pick. Oliver can help fill the void left by Peters.


55. Carolina Panthers
Kiper: Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State

Surely 38-year-old Julius Peppers has to retire at some point, right? Lewis is inconsistent on tape, but he shows flashes of first-round potential.

McShay: Rasheem Green, DE, USC

Green is still raw but has excellent pass-rushing ability. He'd help on the edge for Carolina.


56. Buffalo Bills (from Rams)
Kiper: Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn

This is the Bills' fourth pick so far, and they have more holes to fill than the average playoff team. At 6-1, Davis is a big corner who could battle for the spot opposite Tre'Davious White.

McShay: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

Washington provides a good playmaker on the outside for Buffalo's new QB, Josh Allen.


57. Tennessee Titans
Kiper: Austin Corbett, OC/OG, Nevada

Tennessee could upgrade at all three of its interior offensive line positions with the versatile Corbett, who played tackle at Nevada.

McShay: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

Sutton would provide Marcus Mariota with another option in an offense that lacks playmakers.


58. Atlanta Falcons
Kiper: B.J. Hill, DT, NC State

Hill is a powerful player who had a good week of practices at the Senior Bowl. He could take some of the snaps that Dontari Poe played in 2017.

McShay: Maurice Hurst, D, Michigan

Hurst has been bumped down because of his heart condition, but he would be a great addition to Atlanta's defensive line.


59. San Francisco 49ers (from Saints)
Kiper: Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

Miller injured his foot at the end of the season and didn't participate in testing at the combine. On film, he's a stud, though we don't know his true speed. San Francisco could use another playmaker outside.

McShay: Geron Christian, OG, Nevada

The 49ers have their QB; now it's time to help protect him.


60. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kiper: Uchenna Nwosu, OLB, USC

I mentioned linebacker as a need for the Steelers, and Nwosu was nearly unblockable down the stretch of the season for the Trojans. The edge rusher had eight sacks in his final six games.

McShay: Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

Gesicki crushed his combine workout and would give Pittsburgh another versatile option in an extremely talented offense.


61. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kiper: Jordan Akins, TE, UCF

That's two pass-catchers to help out Blake Bortles in the first two rounds. (D.J. Moore was my pick at No. 29.) The Jags added Austin Seferian-Jenkins in free agency, but it's a two-year deal with only $4 million guaranteed.

McShay: Jordan Lasley, WR, UCLA

Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson are gone. The Jaguars need some more receivers, and Lasley has first-round ability.


62. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper: Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

With offensive linemen for the Vikings in their first two picks (center/guard James Daniels in Round 1), they can go with the best five players available. Crosby is versatile enough to play either tackle position.

McShay: Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn

Insurance if Trae Waynes or Mackensie Alexander doesn't pan out the way Minnesota hopes.


63. New England Patriots
Kiper: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

I expect Rudolph to be the sixth quarterback off the board, and it will likely come in the second round. New England doesn't have a developmental quarterback on its roster. This would be a good spot for Rudolph.

McShay: Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

After adding Harrison in Round 1, New England doubles down with secondary help.


64. Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)
Kiper: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

With their fifth pick of the draft, the Browns get a physical and underlooked defender who can play the deep middle of the field and help in run support.

McShay: M.J. Stewart, CB, North Carolina

Cleveland could use help at cornerback. The Browns would be thrilled with these two rounds of picks.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by govmentchedda »

Kiper's 1-64 Projection
PICK NO. TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 Cleveland Josh Allen QB Wyoming
2 NY Giants Sam Darnold QB USC
3 NY Jets
(from IND) Josh Rosen QB UCLA
4 Cleveland
(from HOU) Saquon Barkley RB Penn State
5 Denver Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma
6 Indianapolis
(from NYJ) Bradley Chubb DE NC State
7 Tampa Bay Denzel Ward CB Ohio State
8 Bears Quenton Nelson G Notre Dame
9 San Francisco Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama
10 Oakland Roquan Smith ILB Georgia
11 Miami Derwin James S Florida State
12 Buffalo
(from CIN) Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech
13 Washington Vita Vea DT Washington
14 Green Bay Marcus Davenport DE Texas San Antonio
15 Arizona Jaire Alexander CB Louisville
16 Baltimore Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame
17 LA Chargers Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama
18 Seattle Josh Jackson CB Iowa
19 Dallas Rashaan Evans ILB Alabama
20 Detroit Taven Bryan DT Florida
21 Cincinnati
(from BUF) Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State
22 Buffalo
(from KC) Lamar Jackson QB Louisville
23 New England
(from LA Rams ) Kolton Miller OT UCLA
24 Carolina Justin Reid S Stanford
25 Tennessee Harold Landry OLB Boston College
26 Atlanta Will Hernandez OG UTEP
27 New Orleans Hayden Hurst TE South Carolina
28 Pittsburgh Calvin Ridley WR Alabama
29 Jacksonville D.J. Moore WR Maryland
30 Minnesota James Daniels OC/OG Iowa
31 New England Mike Hughes CB Central Florida
32 Philadelphia Dallas Goedert TE South Dakota State
33 Cleveland Geron Christian OT Louisville
34 NY Giants Derrius Guice RB LSU
35 Cleveland
(from HOU) D.J. Chark WR LSU
36 Indianapolis Connor Williams OT/OG Texas
37 Indianapolis
(from NYJ) Donte Jackson CB LSU
38 Tampa Bay Ronald Jones II RB USC
39 Chicago Lorenzo Carter OLB Georgia
40 Denver Isaiah Wynn OG Georgia
41 Oakland Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado
42 Miami Maurice Hurst DT Michigan
43 New England
(from SF) Sam Hubbard OLB/DE Ohio State
44 Washington Rashaad Penny RB San Diego State
45 Green Bay M.J. Stewart CB North Carolina
46 Cincinnati Harrison Phillips DT Stanford
47 Arizona Christian Kirk WR Texas A&M
48 LA Chargers Jessie Bates S Wake Forest
49 Indianapolis
(from NYJ via SEA) Sony Michel RB Georgia
50 Dallas Mike Gesicki TE Penn State
51 Detroit Billy Price OC/OG Ohio State
52 Baltimore Mark Andrews TE Oklahoma
53 Buffalo Courtland Sutton WR SMU
54 Kansas City James Washington WR Oklahoma State
55 Carolina Tyquan Lewis DE Ohio State
56 Buffalo
(from LAR) Carlton Davis CB Auburn
57 Tennessee Austin Corbett OC/OG Nevada
58 Atlanta B.J. Hill DT NC State
59 San Francisco
(from NO) Anthony Miller WR Memphis
60 Pittsburgh Uchenna Nwosu OLB USC
61 Jacksonville Jordan Akins TE UCF
62 Minnesota Tyrell Crosby OT Oregon
63 New England Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
64 Cleveland
(from PHI) Ronnie Harrison S Alabama

McShay's 1-64 Projection
PICK NO. TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 Cleveland Sam Darnold QB USC
2 Buffalo
(from CIN)*
trade with NYG Josh Allen QB Wyoming
3 NY Jets
(from IND) Josh Rosen QB UCLA
4 Cleveland
(from HOU) Saquon Barkley RB Penn State
5 Denver Bradley Chubb DE NC State
6 Miami*
trade with IND Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma
7 Tampa Bay Denzel Ward CB Ohio State
8 Chicago Quenton Nelson OG Notre Dame
9 San Francisco Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama
10 Oakland Roquan Smith ILB Georgia
11 Indianapolis*
(from NYJ)
trade with MIA Derwin James S Florida State
12 NY Giants*
trade with BUF Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech
13 Washington Vita Vea DT Washington
14 Green Bay Josh Jackson CB Iowa
15 Arizona Jaire Alexander CB Louisville
16 Baltimore Hayden Hurst TE South Carolina
17 LA Chargers Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama
18 Seattle Marcus Davenport DE UTSA
19 Dallas Taven Bryan DT Florida
20 Detroit Sony Michel RB Georgia
21 Cincinnati
(from BUF) Rashaan Evans LB Alabama
22 NY Giants*
(from KC)
trade with BUF James Daniels OC/OG Iowa
23 New England
(from LA Rams ) Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame
24 Carolina Calvin Ridley WR Alabama
25 Tennessee Harold Landry OLB Boston College
26 Atlanta D.J. Moore WR Maryland
27 New Orleans Dallas Goedert TE South Dakota State
28 Pittsburgh Mike Hughes CB UCF
29 Jacksonville Lamar Jackson QB Louisville
30 Minnesota Will Hernandez OG UTEP
31 New England Ronnie Harrison S Alabama
32 Philadelphia Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State
33 Cleveland Connor Willimas OT Texas
34 NY Giants Derrius Guice RB LSU
35 Cleveland
(from HOU) Justin Reid S Stanford
36 Indianapolis Lorenzo Carter OLB Georgia
37 Indianapolis
(from NYJ) Kolton Miller OT UCLA
38 Tampa Bay Ronald Jones RB USC
39 Chicago Donte Jackson CB LSU
40 Denver Isaiah Wynn OG Georgia
41 Oakland Jessie Bates S Wake Forest
42 Indianapolis*
trade with MIA Christian Kirk WR Texas A&M
43 New England
(from SF) Jerome Baker OLB Ohio State
44 Washington D.J. Chark WR LSU
45 Green Bay Brian O'Neill OT Pitt
46 Cincinnati Billy Price OC/OG Ohio State
47 Arizona Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
48 LA Chargers Tyrell Crosby OT Oregon
49 Indianapolis
(from NYJ via SEA) B.J. Hill DT NC State
50 Dallas Anthony Miller WR Memphis
51 Detroit Arden Key DE LSU
52 Baltimore Antonio Callawa WR Florida
53 NY Giants*
trade with BUF Harrison Phillips DT Stanford
54 Kansas City Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado
55 Carolina Rasheem Green DE USC
56 Buffalo
(from LAR) James Washington WR Oklahoma State
57 Tennessee Courtland Sutton WR SMU
58 Atlanta Maurice Hurst DT Michigan
59 San Francisco
(from NO) Geron Christian OT Louisville
60 Pittsburgh Mike Gesicki TE Penn State
61 Jacksonville Jordan Lasley WR UCLA
62 Minnesota Carlton Davis CB Auburn
63 New England Anthony Averett CB Alabama
64 Cleveland
(from PHI) M.J. Stewart CB North Carolina
*indicates a projected trade
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Location: On the trail

Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Many thanks, chedda!
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Sabo
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

Does anyone have a The Athletic account? If so, can you please show this article?

https://theathletic.com/354407/2018/05/ ... pt-secret/

Thanks in advance for any assistance offered.
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rass
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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Dan Otero stood in the visitors dugout at Wrigley Field and swung his arms back and forth. He has tried to mimic José Ramírez’s signature strut. After three or four paces, he gasps for air.

That isn’t part of the routine.

Lift your shoulders. Swing your arms like pendulums. Tilt your head back. Waddle from side to side, slightly shifting your weight with each exaggerated step.

“It burns a lot of calories,” Otero told The Athletic. “Try to do it. It’s freaking hard work. Gets the obliques going.”

Ramírez strutted around the Indians’ clubhouse when he served as a late-game havoc generator during the Indians’ frenetic 2013 wild-card chase. He maintained that stride when he kept the seat warm at shortstop for Francisco Lindor in 2015, even though his bat never thawed.

What might appear to be an act of machismo — an arrogant, attention-seeking front — isn’t that, even as Ramírez has blossomed into an All-Star and an MVP finalist. When he returns to his hometown of Baní in the Dominican Republic, children in the rural town waddle behind him like wide-eyed ducklings.

“He does it when walking on the side of the street,” Otero said. “He’s not doing it to pump out his chest. It’s just the way he walks.”

The strut has remained steady. His performance, however, has evolved. He’s no longer the little guy who looked lost with lumber in his hand. Now, he’s diminutive, but daunting. He’s imposing, which once seemed implausible.

Turns out, the short, stocky spark plug can hit. And now he hits for power. Has the league finally taken notice? No position player has accumulated more WAR in the past calendar year.

Really, though, no one could have anticipated this. The kid who dropped out of middle school and ultimately signed with the Indians for a measly $50,000? He didn’t have a choice but to dream about this degree of proficiency. There was no alternative, no backup plan.

Ramírez was the runt of the litter, the smallest, youngest player at every level. And while he doesn’t stand shoulder to shoulder with Aaron Judge and he doesn’t tower over the plate as opposing pitchers peer in for the sign, he strikes as much fear into them as any other specimen who braves the batter’s box.

Those in the Indians’ front office don’t pretend to have projected this. But it’s why they stress never to place ceilings on young players. Ramírez has stampeded past every expectation, and the Indians have him secured to the sort of bargain rate you’d find at a garage sale. Per Spotrac, there are 365 big-leaguers with a higher base salary than Ramírez, who will earn just shy of $3 million this season. He doesn’t care; he was ready to sign any offer last spring.

The Indians control the third baseman through the 2023 campaign, so they’ll continue to sit back, prop up their feet and watch the dynamo antagonize opposing pitchers. They might not have envisioned this, but they’ll certainly take it. After all, when Ramírez blitzed through stints in the Dominican Summer League and at Class A Lake County, evaluators in the front office mostly reported that Ramírez “was helping the team win.”

Sounds like a solid, unspectacular player. Now, he’s a franchise cornerstone.

“That’s how they really articulated his value,” Indians assistant GM Carter Hawkins said. “They weren’t articulating it as ‘Future All-Star and MVP candidate’ by any means. I don’t think anybody had any clue that he was going to be the type of player that he is. That’s the beauty of it all.”

A catcher from another team recently griped about Ramírez to Cody Allen.

That team tried to pitch Ramírez up and in. He yanked the ball down the left-field line. They tried to pitch him low and away, off the plate. He slapped the ball the other way. Lefty on the mound. Righty on the mound. Inside corner. Outside corner. High. Low. Sunny. Cloudy. Fastball. Breaking ball. It doesn’t seem to matter.

“He was saying to me, ‘We have no idea what to do,’” Allen said.

How do you pitch to the guy?

“I would just pitch to my strengths and just try to make good, quality pitches and hope he gets himself out,” Allen said.

Trevor Bauer has ribbed Ramírez about wanting to strike him out one day, but even Bauer detailed the challenges he would encounter.

“He doesn’t strike out.”

Ramírez has more three-hit games this season (seven) than multi-strikeout games (four).

Walk rate: 13.0 percent
Strikeout rate: 10.0 percent

“He hits homers.”

Only Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez and Bryce Harper (18 apiece) have slugged more homers this season than Ramírez, whose 17 match his total at the All-Star break last year. He’s on pace to join Jim Thome and Albert Belle as the only players in team history to slug 50 homers in a season.

“He hits for average.”

Ramírez’s batting average the past three seasons: .312, .318, .300.

“He hits doubles.”

Ramírez’s 56 doubles last season were the most by an Indians hitter in 91 years.

“He runs.”

Ramírez has rated as an above-average baserunner every season but last year, when he rated as league average. His frequently airborne helmet — the thing went flying 57 times during the 2016 regular season — also illustrates his aggressive approach on the bases.

“He steals.”

Ramírez swiped 39 bags over the past two years. He already has seven to his credit this season.

“He plays great defense.”

Ramírez has totaled six defensive runs saved this season, the third-most of any big-league third baseman.

He ranks third in baseball with 3.9 fWAR (behind Trout and Mookie Betts).

“He’s one of the better hitters in the game,” Terry Francona said. “You look at him and I don’t know if you necessarily think you’re going to see a guy who can drive the ball out of the ballpark like that. And now, as he’s accumulating some experience, he knows the pitchers, he knows how to attack them, it makes him even better.”

There were always indications that Ramírez could hit — he boasted a .304 average in the minors, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts — but this level of output has conquered even the loftiest of expectations. And that’s why the Indians shy away from making definitive statements about a prospect’s trajectory.

Lindor was a glove-first guy when he first toted his suitcase into the visitors clubhouse at Comerica Park in June 2015. That narrative has evolved in three short years.

A few weeks ago, Lindor pounded his chest with his right fist and then flashed four fingers to Michael Brantley, who stood near home plate.

“I’m protecting you today,” Lindor told his teammate.

An hour and a half before first pitch, Lindor had no idea he was batting fourth. In all but one game this season, he had resided in the leadoff spot. So when The Athletic asked him about his shift to the cleanup spot, Lindor did a double take and requested to see a picture of the lineup.

He shouted the news to Ramírez and Erik González as they walked into the dugout in Detroit. Lindor raised his bat high above his head and exaggerated a leg kick that buried his left knee in his chin.

“I’m hitting fourth!” he yelled to assistant athletic trainer Jeff Desjardins.

Three years ago, upon the top prospect’s promotion, Francona texted Lindor: “Get up here, Frankie.” Lindor walked into the visitors clubhouse in Detroit the next morning, a sure-handed shortstop with slap-hitting singles potential embarking on his first tour of the majors. Right on cue, he singled and slipped while scurrying around first base. Lindor laughed and pointed at Miguel Cabrera, assigning blame for his stumble. Little did anyone know Lindor would wind up slugging somewhat like Cabrera, the Tigers’ longtime middle-of-the-order behemoth.

Ramírez has traveled a similar path, though his was devoid of the hype that surrounded Lindor, once the eighth overall selection in the draft. For years, Ramírez couldn’t escape the latter portion of Francona’s lineup. Now, it’s difficult to picture his name slotted anywhere but the No. 3 spot in the order.

A few of Mike Clevinger’s offseason workout buddies asked the Tribe pitcher how Ramírez could have possibly led the majors with 91 extra-base hits last season.

“I’ve seen him. I’ve played against him,” one guy said to Clevinger. “How is this even possible?”

Clevinger told him to watch Ramírez’s swing in slow motion to locate the answer.

“It’s the most connected swing,” Clevinger said. “His hips and shoulder separation are the best in the game. He’s a natural. He’s gifted with a swing like that. It’s compact. The barrel probably stays in the zone longer than anybody in the game, too.

“If you actually look at it, you understand why. And then looking at his size and the way he carries himself, it’s awesome.”

Ramírez keeps an open door on the road and during spring training. If anyone wants to challenge him to a game of “MLB The Show,” he’s happy to oblige … and destroy.

Ramírez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, says his client has never lost. He’ll defeat minor leaguers who visit his house in Goodyear, Arizona, in the spring. He’ll vanquish his teammates in his hotel room during road trips. In the home clubhouse at Progressive Field, Ramírez routinely outpaces opponents on the team’s “Mario Kart” arcade setup.

“He is an ultra-competitor,” Allen said.

Lindor receives plenty of attention for his never-fading smile and his bubbly charisma. Ramírez has plenty of personality, too, even though his is often accompanied by a scowl and a wad of tobacco tucked inside his lower lip.

He summoned reporters to his locker after the game Tuesday to clear the air about the falsified rumor that surfaced about a possible PED-related suspension. He laughed throughout the interview.

“I don’t think a whole lot bothers him,” Francona said.

After the Indians’ 10-1 win at Wrigley Field earlier this month, a reporter asked Ramírez what type of pitch he swatted beyond the ivy for a three-run blast. Ramírez scanned the small group huddled around his locker before he stared at the TV camera pointed in his direction.

“Home run pitch.”

“He knows the game,” Otero said. “He doesn’t miss much. I don’t think he gets enough credit for his baseball IQ. It’s off the charts.”

That’s the sort of intangible that can elevate a decent player into an elite one.

“We have enough humility to know we can’t predict the future,” said Chris Antonetti, the Indians’ president of baseball operations. “Ultimately, players can go out and change what path they might be on. I’m not sure anyone sat here, looking at José in the minor leagues and said, ‘Hey, he’s going to (vie for) the major-league lead in home runs.’ But we wouldn’t rule it out. That’s not smart to do either. Our job is to try to provide the best environment, tools, resources, culture, coaching for guys to be the best they can be.”

When the Indians and Padres exchanged names during trade talks in 2010, the Indians couldn’t find Corey Kluber’s name on any prospect watch lists. Now, the two-time Cy Young winner ranks as one of the most accomplished pitchers in franchise history.

The most intriguing aspect of Ramírez’s growth is that he doesn’t turn 26 until September. There could still be some untapped potential within his stumpy frame.

Just two years ago, he served as the club’s starting left fielder, an assignment prompted by Brantley’s shoulder setbacks. The Indians weren’t sure what to expect; Ramírez had initially been tabbed to replace Mike Aviles as the club’s utility man.

“I remember talking to José,” Otero said. “I was like, ‘Where do you want to play?’ He’s like, ‘I just want to hit.’ That’s all he cares about. He just wanted to put a bat in his hands.”

Well, this is the same kid who would play baseball with anything he could find, be it a ball and a bat or a broomstick and a bottle cap. No way Sabo reads this. Now, it seems as though he could launch a marble into the outfield seats using a puny twig.

“He started out as the utility guy that we all loved for his swagger and his confidence,” Francona said. “He got sent down a couple times and now he’s genuinely one of the better players in the game. It’s pretty cool. It’s pretty fun to watch.”

That applies for Ramírez’s teammates as well. They’ve watched him bloom into an imposing figure at the plate. Now, the rest of the league is learning about the sport’s best-kept secret.

“Now the power is really starting to come,” Otero said, “and it’s like, ‘Whoa! This guy is special.’ ”
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Sabo
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Sabo »

No way Sabo reads this.
WRONG!

(And thanks again!)
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rass
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by rass »

I'd say no prob, except it was a slight pain in the ass because the site included a bunch of breaks with photos and charts and shit between sections of the article. But mostly no prob.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by Rush2112 »

anyone have access that is willing to post?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_ ... teams-1-32
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

Post by wlu_lax6 »

So I am tempted by the Athletic. Anyone besides Rass subscribing? Worth it? I like some of the writers who have made the jump but generally have found paying for content disappointing.
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Re: ESPN Insider Access

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wlu_lax6 wrote: Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:28 am So I am tempted by the Athletic. Anyone besides Rass subscribing? Worth it? I like some of the writers who have made the jump but generally have found paying for content disappointing.
I am...I paid an intro rate of $40 for the year, I think...not sure what it will be when it comes up for renewal. So far I like it...some good columns and game/weekly previews etc. I don't read something every day but I at least check it. The team specific coverage is nice and since I'm a fan of teams from different cities it helps get me content without having to pay elsewhere...e.g. I like the Nuggets but the Denver Post has gone full paywall now. On the Athletic I can mark the Nuggets as a favorite.

Another reason is I like several of the writers that jumped from local papers. C. Trent Rosecrans from the Reds beat is one of them. The Bengals also have some good writers too (as well as one radio guy I'm not sure why is writing now).
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