Bart O’Kavanaugh hearings and inevitable confirmation

[Nonlinear FC]

So the Washington Post commentator said that it's up to trump as to whether there will be a week's delay.

Right, Trump is the one that has to give the thumbs up for the FBI to proceed.

And, as Joe kind of alluded to, if they can get to 50 without Flake, they'll just bum rush this through.

My point in response is that I'd be shocked if Collins and/or Murkowski would be Yes's if they tried to push this through now.

[Nonlinear FC]

I feel like this is all bullshit additional dramatic theater and the Dems lost again.

I think there's a slim chance this was a sham. Flake has been waiting to make a move that would solidify him as a moderate hero for 2 years. This is his moment.

[Joe K]

I feel like this is all bullshit additional dramatic theater and the Dems lost again.

I agree. The bottom line is that this vote advanced Kavanaugh one significant step closer to confirmation. And I think that it’s unlikely that an FBI investigation reaches a definitive conclusion unless Mark Judge or another of his friends comes clean. So even if an FBI investigation occurs, the most likely result is that its inconclusive results give the fence sitters cover to vote for confirmation.

[EnochRoot]

I feel like this is all bullshit additional dramatic theater and the Dems lost again.

Pretty much this.

[A_B]

And I really don't think Manchin is going to fall on this sword. This is way too toxic. His turnout would be terrible.

Is there even a such thing as a staunchly pro-Kavanaugh swing voter?

Manchin is in a pretty competitive race and as a Democrat in as red as WV has become he still wants to be there so he has to stay as central as possible.

[Nonlinear FC]

MSNBC reporting Murkowski supports Flake's effort. I assume that means she's a No without the FBI coming back in.

But, she's not on record saying that officially. I mean, shit, Flake is officially not on record explicitly saying that's his position. I just believe that's where he (and Murkowski) are at.

And I just have to believe Collins was already there, as she was saying that earlier this week. In fairness to Murkowski, I think she was on the record saying that, too.

[Johnnie]

Just yesterday Lindsey Graham was an unhinged maniac either chucking for the AG seat or doing Trump's bidding because he's got something on him.

Suddenly he's smiling and cracking jokes to the press following this committee hearing.

The CBS feed cut to Trump being interviewed after the fact. He was calm in speaking and looked at ease.

Then CBS cut to Flake's good buddy Chris Coons and Coons sopped it up in admiration of his willingness to serve what was right.

Did any of these people see Flake getting his ass handed to him by victims of sexual assault in the elevator earlier today? Did yesterday's hearings not happen?

This type of shit reminds me of the hype surrounding MMA fights. Bluster and nonsense from the fighters until the bout. Then the bout happens and immediately following it, admiration between the two and am immediate hype scene for the next fight. Lather, rinse, repeat.

None of this makes sense and everything is rotten. If I didn't know any better I would think that the Democrats don't really care.

[Nonlinear FC]

Mark Judge, who's been hiding in Rehobeth (or whatever) all week --> Shitting his pants rn.

[A_B]

Trump says he will defer to Senate. Is he discarding Kavanaugh?

[Nonlinear FC]

Trump says he will defer to Senate. Is he discarding Kavanaugh?

No, he doesn't off the top of his head (he said that after coming out of a one-on-one with the president of Chile) understand that he is the only one that can re-open the FBI investigation.

One thing that is unclear and very important: Is Flake calling for an investigation to the Ford allegations only? Or are we throwing in Swetnick(?) and Ramirez, too??

[mister d]

I'm torn. On one hand, the FBI obviously can't prove what happened in a bedroom 35 years ago so that'll hit a wall. On the other, Kavanaugh can only look worse every day that passes. Given that I expected him to be 5 beers deep celebrating his confirmation today, I guess things are going better than worst case.

[Ryan]

A cynic would still see the worst case GOP outcome as a new hard-right nominee and another opportunity to claim conspiracy and bias at the FBI

[Johnnie]

I'm torn. On one hand, the FBI obviously can't prove what happened in a bedroom 35 years ago so that'll hit a wall. On the other, Kavanaugh can only look worse every day that passes. Given that I expected him to be 5 beers deep celebrating his confirmation today, I guess things are going better than worst case.

Honestly, with our fruitfly attention spans, this faux limited in scope (up to one week) investigation will give just enough cover for all to come out unscathed and confirm Bart without too much stink at the end of everything.

That's my conclusion. Too many people seem far too happy today despite truth bomb after truth bomb.

[mister d]

Bombs of truth aside, I 100% thought he’d be a SC justice right now and right now he’s not so that can’t be bad.

[mister d]

Judge agreeing to cooperate seems positive as well.

[tennbengal]

Look, it buys a week. A lot can happen in a week. Mr D is right, they could be voting on Tuesday and sailing him through. A lot will depend on the polling over the weekend, I would imagine.

[Nonlinear FC]

Judge agreeing to cooperate seems positive as well.

He is not going to be able to confirm any Ford's allegations. But he can nail down some of the timing.

But he basically is useless as the third person in the room. He was too drunk to remember is pretty easy. He can also clarify how much Kavanaugh was drinking back then. But are we really gonna not confirm a guy because he lied about underage drinking? You could make a perjury case, but shit, we've seen people lying like dogs the last 2 years (Sessions, most notably)

I'll say it again, what really matters in terms of possibly getting rid of Kavanaugh is what is the SCOPE of the FBI investigation. Because the Ramirez and Swetnick allegations are pretty bad for Kavanaugh. Though, again, I think there are a lot of problems with Swetnick.

[Giff]

I feel like this is all bullshit additional dramatic theater and the Dems lost again.

I agree. The bottom line is that this vote advanced Kavanaugh one significant step closer to confirmation. And I think that it’s unlikely that an FBI investigation reaches a definitive conclusion unless Mark Judge or another of his friends comes clean. So even if an FBI investigation occurs, the most likely result is that its inconclusive results give the fence sitters cover to vote for confirmation.

Yup.

[degenerasian]

Judge agreeing to cooperate seems positive as well.

He is not going to be able to confirm any Ford's allegations. But he can nail down some of the timing.

But he basically is useless as the third person in the room. He was too drunk to remember is pretty easy. He can also clarify how much Kavanaugh was drinking back then. But are we really gonna not confirm a guy because he lied about underage drinking? You could make a perjury case, but shit, we've seen people lying like dogs the last 2 years (Sessions, most notably)

I'll say it again, what really matters in terms of possibly getting rid of Kavanaugh is what is the SCOPE of the FBI investigation. Because the Ramirez and Swetnick allegations are pretty bad for Kavanaugh. Though, again, I think there are a lot of problems with Swetnick.

I thought the Ford allegation seemed the most credible. Not sure if the Ramirez or Swetnick stories have corroborators like Judge.
And Ramirez doesn't want to testify last I heard.

edit: nevermind, answered below

[Nonlinear FC]

Totally agree that if the FBI doesn't dig something substantial up, Kavanaugh is going to be sitting on the SC. But without Flake, Murkowski, Manchin and Collins basically saying they're not moving this forward, they at least left the door open.

Otherwise, this is a done deal by next Tuesday.

It was a big fat lie that Ramirez didn't want to testify. And we already know Swetnick is ready to talk. And if there people that can corroborate Swetnick? Holy shit.

[Nonlinear FC]

Judge agreeing to cooperate seems positive as well.

He is not going to be able to confirm any Ford's allegations. But he can nail down some of the timing.

But he basically is useless as the third person in the room. He was too drunk to remember is pretty easy. He can also clarify how much Kavanaugh was drinking back then. But are we really gonna not confirm a guy because he lied about underage drinking? You could make a perjury case, but shit, we've seen people lying like dogs the last 2 years (Sessions, most notably)

I'll say it again, what really matters in terms of possibly getting rid of Kavanaugh is what is the SCOPE of the FBI investigation. Because the Ramirez and Swetnick allegations are pretty bad for Kavanaugh. Though, again, I think there are a lot of problems with Swetnick.

I thought the Ford allegation seemed the most credible. Not sure if the Ramirez or Swetnick stories have collaborators like Judge.

We don't know because they haven't been vetted like Ford. Like I've said, if the FBI digs into these other two, who knows what's out there.

[The Sybian]

Yesterday was especially interesting, as I am conducting an investigation into a workplace sexual harassment allegation. The accused is a female manager, and there are so far 4 people she allegedly harassed. I interviewed 3 male employees yesterday, one of whom alleged harassment, the other two are managers who had subordinates tell them about how they were harassed.

It's fascinating hearing men saying how scared they are to come forward, because of the perception of being a pussy for not being able to handle sexual harassment from a female manager. All three said something to the effect of, "If this was a man doing this to a woman, it would clearly be cause for a complaint..." Two of the three mentioned they were watching the Kavanaugh hearings before speaking with me, and they both said they have a new appreciation for how difficult it must be for a woman to come out with sexual assault allegations, because this complaint is nothing in comparison to what Kavanaugh is accused of, and difficult to come forward.

Side note: One of the managers was telling me that while he has never personally seen the accused harass someone, he has seen her "exhibit strange behavior." As an example, he goes into a story about how during his second week with the company, he went to the foreign HQ of their company with the accused and the CEO. He meets the Accused and CEO at a bar. When he gets there, he says hi to them, and the Accused turns around and full out punches him in the nose. The way the guy told the story was fucking hilarious, and just shocking, and I'm pretty sure I didn't quite stifle my laugh. He said he confronted her about it a few weeks later, and he believes she legitimately does not remember doing this. That is a running theme, she forces subordinates to go for drinks, gets wasted, and makes passes at them, and doesn't seem to remember.

[EnochRoot]

Judge is the one who knows how many times Kavanaugh was blackout drunk.

This is a good tweet.

[tennbengal]

[Nonlinear FC]

Yesterday was especially interesting, as I am conducting an investigation into a workplace sexual harassment allegation. The accused is a female manager, and there are so far 4 people she allegedly harassed. I interviewed 3 male employees yesterday, one of whom alleged harassment, the other two are managers who had subordinates tell them about how they were harassed.

It's fascinating hearing men saying how scared they are to come forward, because of the perception of being a pussy for not being able to handle sexual harassment from a female manager. All three said something to the effect of, "If this was a man doing this to a woman, it would clearly be cause for a complaint..." Two of the three mentioned they were watching the Kavanaugh hearings before speaking with me, and they both said they have a new appreciation for how difficult it must be for a woman to come out with sexual assault allegations, because this complaint is nothing in comparison to what Kavanaugh is accused of, and difficult to come forward.

Side note: One of the managers was telling me that while he has never personally seen the accused harass someone, he has seen her "exhibit strange behavior." As an example, he goes into a story about how during his second week with the company, he went to the foreign HQ of their company with the accused and the CEO. He meets the Accused and CEO at a bar. When he gets there, he says hi to them, and the Accused turns around and full out punches him in the nose. The way the guy told the story was fucking hilarious, and just shocking, and I'm pretty sure I didn't quite stifle my laugh. He said he confronted her about it a few weeks later, and he believes she legitimately does not remember doing this. That is a running theme, she forces subordinates to go for drinks, gets wasted, and makes passes at them, and doesn't seem to remember.

She also seems slightly confused about the definition of "hitting on someone."

[The Sybian]

She also seems slightly confused about the definition of "hitting on someone."

Ha!





So much to parse out here. What kind of a lawyer misspells two out of two S.Ct. Justices, and misspells the name of the Senator he is fellating in a Tweet? And when the fuck did Rudy get to vote on S.Ct. Justices? For once, it's worth reading the responses.

[mister d]

[Nonlinear FC]

Calendar entry might line up with Ford's allegations... Interesting. Certainly fucking worth investigating. Asshats.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... lasey-ford

[Rush2112]

At least something good came out of yesterday.

[A_B]

That's great!

[degenerasian]

well well

[Johnnie]

Holy fuck.

[Johnnie]

Well, this will be juxtaposed nicely with my above post:

[Pruitt]

Johnnie - I am very squeamish and can't look up anything with such an ominous caveat...

Could you (or someone else) precis this for me.

Thanks.

[EdRomero]

I thought it was called a Devil's Threesome, not to be confused with 3 Man, which was quite the fun drinking game.

[Pruitt]

Thanks Ed!

So not something completely horrifying.

Just looked it up... and it really is a bizarre scenario that this is the easily provable perjury.

[EnochRoot]

This is why Bart is fucked. The internet over the next week.

He'll bleed.

[Johnnie]

Yea, that was a slightly misleading warning. A simple "FYI, Devil's Triangle is a NSFW term" would have been much better than "something dudes do that you should NOT look up."

Makes me wish that it was something that would make someone nauseous. He wanted to get all explicit with questions of Bill Clinton, why wouldn't he be into kinky shit? Did I read correctly that he lost his virginity during group sex? Catholics, man. I swear. Projecting their self loathing onto the world.

[Johnnie]

This is why Bart is fucked. The internet over the next week.

He'll bleed.

Starting with the Senate Democrats:

https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsro ... e-on-92718

Quite frankly, the comments in r/politics can save a massive amount of man-hours with a bunch of copying/pasting. There were 4 mega threads. Nearly everything was cross referenced in real time because so many people are involved.

I fear that whatever scope the FBI has is naturally limited by the amount of time they are granted.

[tennbengal]

Johnnie - I don’t have the stomach for reddit or searching through mega threads there. Any tl/dr for those threads? Or a shortcut to the good stuff?